Dman

I agree with you here. I don't think now is the time to trade away Lee or Jenkins and I don't know if Rodriguez quite gets a deal done or not but if Kepler leaves next year they need a replacement and Rodriguez is likely the guy they plug in there if not center field. Anything less than that makes me dubious about getting anything more than a 5th starter type which I think the Twins can fill in just fine via the farm or Free Agency. Remember to get Pablo we had to give the reigning AL batting champion. It takes a lot to pry away good pitching and selling the farm seems short sighted to me. I just don't think that is as easy a path as some seem to think. If the team is going to act more like Tampa and Cleveland then it seems like trading Polanco for a good return would make some sense. It could even be just to strengthen the young pitching on the farm. His value will never be higher and there are a couple of teams who could really use his bat. Still if this team is serious about another run keeping him sure is nice as well. A switch hitting veteran bat that is pretty clutch ain't easy to find. So I go back and forth but there are only so many spots and with his injury history I just don't know which way is best. I think payroll ends up around 130M tops and they need something better in center and one more starting pitcher at minimum. A veteran reliever likely needs to be in their as well. Hard to say how they work the numbers, but I think it ends up with trading away players to gain space for those acquisitions.

Those are all good points by the OP. I never had the Twins in the running for a difference making starter in Free Agency. The higher payroll teams generally win those battles and the Twins seem averse to aging arms anyway unless they come cheap. I never felt Farmer was safe and I think he could bring back equal or better value than what the Twins gave away given there is not much out there for shortstop this year. Even if they trade Farmer I think if an overpay comes to fruition they move Polanco as well. I know that might be a risky move but the Twins have options on the farm for the infield and Brooks Lee's batting line makes me think he could fill in sooner rather than later if truly needed. Also short is covered by Correa, Lewis and Castro with Lee a likely option mid season. I think it is a move they can afford to make if the trade value is worth making the move. The Twins are going to get a lot of interest in Kepler this offseason. Trading him could really hurt as he is a middle of the order bat and can play good defense. I know Wallner can technically replace him to some degree and they can use Larnack and Kirilloff for left field but that seems like a dangerous way to go depth wise and there isn't much immediate help at AAA. You could plug in Gordon and Castro at times but those bats are far less dangerous than Kepler. Still I think they will get some very strong offers and if they can get an over pay Maybe it could be worth moving him? I don't see the Twins being able to trade prospects for starting help this year as they don't need 5th starter types, they need front of the rotation and teams just don't trade guys like that away with years of control very easily. More than likely they grab a vet at the end whose value has been lost and rely on the farm arms for the 5th, 6th and 7th starter roles. At any rate if they want to strengthen other areas and reduce payroll they are going to need to make some trades. Getting major league pitching for Polanco or Kepler seems unlikely but if it can be done that is ideal. I would trade Polanco given the infield appears to be a strength now and into the future. Farmer is too expensive for what he brings to the team so I would trade him. With the extra money try and fix center field or find a good free agent pitcher for the 5th spot.

Would love to get him on a one year deal, but I think pitching needy teams might still give a good AAV on two or three year deal. Getting pitching in free agency has never really gone well for the Twins, but maybe there are too many warts for teams to bet big on him? Will have to wait and see but he is a really nice bounce back candidate. Just not sure how far the Twins would go if he doesn't do a one year deal.

I am with you. Don't write Cleveland's obituary quite yet. They had a tough season injury wise and were still a threat to the Twins into September. While they will likely trade Bieber and come out with great pieces they also have a young pitching staff that pitched well until later in the season. The bat's regressed for Cleveland last year but they will likely bring up Manzardo early next year and he has been an exceptional hitter all the way up to AAA where he finally struggled a little. DeLauter looks like a fast mover. Hard to say how quickly he will handle the higher levels but he could be an option for them as early as next year. That doesn't include what they might get for Bieber. Their pen and rotation are still top of the league. They might not do much in FA but the pieces are still there to hang tough and have a good to great season depending on the injury bug. The one thing they do lack is depth almost everywhere. Injuries could hurt them more than other teams. Still IMO if they could compete with the broken down team they had last year then they can compete with the team they will put out in 2024.

Wow I agree he had value but I didn't see the numbers Law put out as a possibility. If he truly has that much value trading him now makes some sense as the Twins won't be signing him at 20M on a QO next year or to a contract anything close to what Law predicts. The tough part is if the Twins do trade him it weakens the team a fair bit as he was our HR leader and a big bat for the team down the stretch. Put me in the believer camp that Kepler has turned a corner with the bat and his defense is always solid in right. Will be interesting to see what happens with both Kepler and Polanco in the offseason. It would be nice to see this team sell high on some guys for once, but moving on from Kepler if he is second half Kepler is going to hurt next years team.

I just can't see a scenario where a 34 year old pitcher coming off one of the best years of his career would accept a QO. If he got injured or was less effective than this year his market value could plummet and being a year older he might have to go year to year after that hard to say. That is an enormous amount of risk to take on in fact I would argue a foolish amount of risk. He literally is in the drivers seat pitching a full season and in the running for the Cy Young. If ever there was a time to strike a multi year deal this is it. He worked his ass off to get to this spot to take yet another one year chance just to remove the QO doesn't make any sense IMO.

Yeah I battle with that same scenario myself. I guess the deciding factor for me is that most teams that are bottom ten in revenue take risks by selling on vets early to get things they need or grab prospects to hopefully get good players that they can control for a longer period of time. Couple that in with Jullian being about as effective as Polanco at 2nd and with Lee on the way and saving 10M I think it tips it to trade for me.

As others have mentioned it feels like this offseason is the right time to move Polanco if the price is right. The infield seems tight and with Lee on the way as someone who could be a Polanco clone and the 40 man getting tighter. Using that 10M elsewhere sure is tempting. And yet .800 OPS bats don't grow on tree's and being a switch hitter on top of it makes him versatile and valuable. It is a tough call, but I still think they trade him this offseason. I am pretty sure teams will be asking about Kepler, but I don't know if we are set up as well in the outfield just yet. It would be nice to keep Kepler one more year and give Rodriguez and Rosario one more year to see if they will be ready in 2025. Still Kepler's value appears higher than Polanco's and if the price is right they could go with Wallner, Larnach, Gordon in the corners with Kirilloff filling in left if needed. It doesn't feel as solid without Kepler, but again if the price is right I could see them moving on. Nice to know they can still get value for both players in trade or by keeping them on the team. It just feels like it might be time to make trades to strengthen other areas.

Since no one has mentioned him I am interested in Ricardo Olivar. He was MVP of the complex league and real good year last year in A ball. A catcher who can play center field is exciting to me. If he stays at catcher he has good speed and mobility which is appealing. Also having a catcher who can play in the outfield seems like nice position flexibility as well. Danny De Andrade is also interesting. Super young for A ball and held his own there. Seems to be coming into his power and might be a plus defender. It is going to be interesting to see how well he handles High A where lot's of hitters seem to struggle.

I can't see the Twins moving on from\trading Rodriguez. I agree the K rate is concerning, but the plate discipline is also elite so this isn't about a player who is undisciplined at the plate and just swinging at everything. Maybe I have too much hope but he seems a bit like Soto to me. He swings hard at everything and generally has good results. I just don't think a guy who looks like he could be a perennial all-star is a player you want to trade. I get there is risk there. If the K rate doesn't improve and pitchers at higher levels can exploit his swing path and he can't make adjustments then maybe he ends up a good not great player. He could end up a Gallo\Kepler type player if things don't go his way, but that feels like his floor to me. Even though he was young for the level he was at the top of the Midwest league leader board at top 5 in OPS and that was after a brutal May (.572 OPS). In June his OPS was .943, July .840, August .941 and September 1.100. If not for the horrible May he might have been the league MVP over Rosario. He takes some really bad at bat's and I have been low on him for that, but I think he really is likely underrated. He would be untradeable for me unless the Twins found themselves with a sweet deal for a really good pitcher with a good amount of control left. I feel pretty confident Rodriguez will be a difference maker as a player but time will tell.

I think they make late moves because they generally get better value that way. Free agents that other teams passed on lose value and or negotiating power as spring training approaches. Trades can swing various directions depending on if a team really needs a guy or if they really want to dump a player. Just like at the trade deadline teams often seem to wait until the last minute to establish the best value for a player and or decide to overpay for a player. That being said if the Twins plan on Trading one or two of Farmer, Polanco, Kepler, Larnach it feels like they should do it sooner rather than later or they might not find a team that needs\wants those players. My hope would be that they can elicit some type of bidding war for players they are willing to move on from. It is hard to say what value gets placed on certain players, but need often trumps everything. I don't think they can or will keep everyone so expect at least one trade if not more..

If they have a shot I like the Lefty Montgomery the best. Twins could use a Quality Lefty starter and he is only 30 so a 5 year deal should age fairly well. I like Sonny as well and he can be signed to a 3 year deal, but it felt like he had a career year and I don't know if I trust the numbers or not. Don't get me wrong I think he will good just not sure if what he has is enough for me, Nola with a down year makes me worry about a decline, but I guess he has never been about velocity so likely bounces back. I'd love to have anyone of those arms to be honest, but I just don't see the Twins having the winning bid and they seem loath to invest years in pitchers over 30. Not sure what the stats are, but there must be something that gives them pause there. Gray on a three year deal seems the most possible to me, but there will be heavy interest in all those arms and the high Revenue clubs usually win those battles.

I agree with OP on the adds. Camargo needs to be added or will be gone and while he has warts in K rate and walk rate his HR power seems to make up for it. He seems solid behind the plate so really a perfect third catcher that with better plate discipline could be more. I like Enlow and he could be a good reliever in the end, but how many young relief guys that might or might not make it. can this team carry? They already have Sands, Winder, Henriquez, Headrick, Balazovich, Moran and Canterino. If Enlow deserves a 40 man spot one of those other guys has to go IMO. I'm not sure Enlow has shown enough to even beat out those names. Would love to have him back just not on the 40 man. Celestino is under rated IMO. His walk and K rates are really good. He simply lacks power. If the power ever shows up he is a major league Centerfielder. The issue is he and Martin have similar skillsets with Martin showing more power and better stealing numbers and Celestino the better defender. The issue is you really can only afford one of those two on the 40 man and with Celestino having two option years used up already and a bat that hasn't been a difference maker to this point he feels like the odd man out to me. Again I hope they sign him to a nice AAA contract and he doesn't get picked in Rule V but it doesn't seem like there is room on the 40 man for him IMO. Bechtold is really good third baseman but the bat just hasn't been MLB worthy to this point. If I were him I would see if the A's or Angels are interested as the Twins infield is stacked. The odds of him doing well in relief seem low to me but if he wants to stay on in that role with the Twins in the minors he would be a nice piece to have around.

You don't see many players that can command 6 pitches so that is unique. For me he was quite a surprise. Given what info I could read and where he was drafted I had him as a likely reliever. He was dominant at times this year and very hittable in other starts. If you watched the "The Show" it was stated that some games are more about working on a pitch that might be a weak point for hopeful better future performance. So stats won't\don't tell the whole story in some cases. A shout out to @DocBauer who was pretty high on Culpepper right from the draft. CJ is getting a lot of helium and I hope he is going to be a future dominant arm for the Twins.

Thanks for that info! I didn't go that deep. I agree the BABIP was low and I assumed it was likely weak contact, but thanks for setting the record straight. I think he is close as well and he "could" have played at the MLB level last year given the numbers, but likely prudent to give him more time as he has only had one full pro year. I can't remember talking about a player that has moved this fast through the Twins system ever before. That is why I think it will be AAA until he sort of proves he has made all the adjustments needed for the MLB level. The cold weather months in April\May are generally tough on hitters so I am thinking June\July before his numbers scream add me and call me up and that is best case scenario IMO.

It is exciting having Lee so close. With a 15% K rate and almost 10% walk rate he has a nice balanced line that should serve him well moving up. The thing that scares me a little with the good contact hitters is that the weak contact they generate can be just as bad as striking out. Miranda, The Turtle and others have low K rates and good contact rates yet still struggled at the MLB level. I like what he said about his approach this offseason to try to get better swings on certain pitches. He is a good hitter and the more experience he gets the better he is going to be. I still think he needs at least half of next year in AAA to refine some things but once he makes it to the big league level I don't see him ever coming back to the minors. If his bat turns out to be as special as we all hope he is going to be a great player for a long time.

You would mainly only offer him the QO if you only wanted him for one more year otherwise you are correct the Twins could try a two or three year deal and see if he takes it but once you are into Free Agency there is no guarantee the Twins will be the highest bidder and you could lose him for nothing. If you give him the QO and he doesn't take it then the Twins can still negotiate a multi year contract and if he leaves they at least get draft pick compensation. If he takes the QO you have overpaid but you have Maeda for at least one more year and don't have to worry about losing him or filling that spot.

Fun interview. Nice to confirm that when numbers drop sometimes it is that they are just working on weaknesses ro things to make them better down the road. From the sounds of the interview there were a lot of arms in CR with very good potential. Wichita should have some talent next year especially when it comes to starters. Nice hear two guys I really like in McCleod and Parades are under the radar picks. They both need to work on slightly better K\9 and fastball velocity, but they find ways to get guys out. Parades pitched really well down the stretch.

That is a good list. I really thought SWR was going to be something, but it really looks like he is stalling out at the higher levels. Not sure what the answer is there, but pen does seem likely at this point. Tough break on Prielipp. A steal in the 2nd round even if he ends up in a relief role. It is a long road back, but lot's of players have made it back. Hoping it just takes a bit more time but he reaches his full potential. Time will tell. Salas was a major disappointment. A bit more progress at the plate late in the season, but when you have a bat that bad it seems the whole approach is wrong. He is in Cavaco territory right now. Still young with a chance to bounce back, but next year is super important. If the bat doesn't progress the odds it ever will become lower and lower.

I think that is a good point. He never seems to get used as a top of the rotation arm. Come playoff time he tends to get bumped to the pen so that could offset his perceived value and I agree Eovaldi looks better for that role than Maeda. For 20M you would like to get a bit more than Maeda I get that, but if you only want a one year deal you generally have to give more AAV and I don't think the Twins want\need Maeda for more than one more year. Just need a bridge to Raya, Festa, Lewis and hopefully more arms after that. As noted by many it doesn't feel like the Twins have the money to spare if he accepts the QO. So my whole premise is likely moot. Thanks for the great feedback!

Very good analysis and it is spot on IMO. As others have noted if he accepts the QO then the offseason adds are likely done for the season. Given the budget they might also need to get rid of Polanco\Kepler and or Farmer just to make room for the money involved. My main thought was if he accepts it helps with the rotation for one more year at an overpay of possibly 6M depending on how you value him. If he declines as you noted at least the Twins get something of value which is an extra draft pick and or extra money to spread around in the draft. As you noted Maeda getting a contract over 50M is very low given his age and production so he is not going to bring back a low 1st round pick. With the Twins being cap strapped probably not going happen as the risk reward is too great. Appreciate your insight. I felt it really got to the crux of the issue.

There is a good chance the FO replaces Maeda internally with Varland or a cheaper possibly bounce back free agent next year instead of investing in Maeda. The TV contract being up in the air likely leaves my Maeda idea in the dust bin. The only reason I bring up the QO for Maeda is Nick Nelson's article which identifies 2025 as a pinch point in the budget. While they would have to overpay for Maeda it would only be a one year deal and I only see Maeda accepting a one year deal for extra money as he can certainly get a two year deal and if any kind of bidding war three years on the Free agent market. The bar based on what similar pitchers got was around 15M per year so unless I am missing something he is going to make good money in his next contract. The FO might not feel they need Maeda "that" bad I don't know, but given what I laid out above if they wanted to just keep him for one more year the QO could likely accomplish that at a slightly over priced rate. If he doesn't accept then at least there is an extra pick and more money in the pool for the draft.

Yeah I here ya. Eovaldi got 2\34 last year and his ERA has looked better than Maeda's going into his contract year. Still I think Maeda could get a similar deal. 21 is only 4M more than 17 and then the Twins don't have to bring him back when the money crunch hits in 2025. They paid Gray 12.5M last year plus Maeda's old Salary and the difference isn't that large. Still I think you are right. With the TV deal unsettled they probably don't want to take on 21M even if he did accept it, but good luck finding anyone close to Maeda for under 15M per year on the FA market. I guess I was just surprised that I could talk myself into it making sense.

Looking at his body of work it doesn't feel like Maeada is worth 21M per year but as I snooped around looking at last years numbers for pitchers it looked like several pitchers with his numbers are worth at least 15M per year. In 2021 Zach Grienke got 13M per year in his age 39 season and the washed up Hill managed 8M last year. Even a bounce back look at Thor cost 13M last year. While Kenta's overall numbers weren't ace level last year the Athletic noted that his ERA from June till the end of the year was 3.36. He struggled early with his arm and velocity but once it all came back in June he looked like a top of the rotation arm. The K rate was solid. He gave up some just over the fence HR's or his ERA might have been even better. It is hard to crack the 20M barrier but it seems like a team desperate for pitching could go 2 years 32M to 37M with a buy out on the end offering a third year. It seems close enough to QO money to offer it IMO. If he takes it then the Twins get a really good arm (slightly overpriced) for one more year to add depth and if someone still offers him a multi-year deal and he takes it then at least the Twins get comped with a 2nd or 1st round pick depending on the money involved. I just can't see him getting anything less than 15M per year even at his age even with the question marks about his arm staying strong throughout a full season. Am I way off base here? Let me know your thoughts.

It would really be nice if Festa turned into a big league rotation option this coming year. I haven't been as high on Festa after seeing him late in the season at Beloit in 2022. He was good that night but he gave up some real solid contact as well. I didn't come away as impressed as I had hoped I would be. Still the numbers don't lie and his ERA at AA was good for that league as lot's of pitchers got pummeled there. His xFIP and FIP make him look even better at that level. I still have my concerns and it will be interesting to see how he does at AAA this coming year. I am hoping he looks better than ever and can be a rotation helper later in the season if needed. I didn't like the Schobel pick when the Twins made it, but he made a believer out of me when leading the Midwest league in OPS and HR's until his promotion. I don't know what happened at AA that set him back but am hoping he bounces back. His numbers at High A were better than a lot of 1st round draft picks so the potential is there. He just needs to prove he still has that balanced approach next year at AA. Loved Rosario's season if the K rate was lower he would be top 5 for me. I was talking him up all season as he started well with just a bit of a slump in the second half. I will say I was surprised he was the MVP of the league, but his offensive numbers were good enough to warrant it and his defense turned out to be better than I realized as well. If he can control the zone a bit more he is going to be monster bat IMO.