Dman

There certainly is more risk with Byron than most players just based on his injury history. Still the way he looked last year I think that is risk that needs to be taken on. The fact he was willing to do an incentive laden contract means he absolutely believes in himself but even if he has a down year or two or three the Twins won't be paying 20 to 30 million for those years. 15 Million isn't chump change for this organization but Byron can be a top 10 player in the game and those types of players are very, very hard to find. I am a risk averse person but even I am ok with this deal. I don't often and maybe never have said this about a player but as a fan I really appreciated the way Byron handled his contract situation. He always said he wanted to stay and never complained about his service time manipulation or how negotiations were going. He bent his negotiating power to allow for an incentive laden contract all while keeping a great attitude. I just want to say thank you as a fan because I have cheered Byron on since MiLB ball. When he has played I have loved watching what he can do and I am very happy he will be a Twin through his prime. Honestly, I don't think he will disappoint us.

I was keeping an eye on Osiris last year especially after dominating in low A. He slipped a bit in High A as his WHIP went up quite a bit. I assume due to adjusting to a tougher level. Not sure what to think just yet as you generally need to wait until AA and AAA to see how pitchers are going to do and the jump to MLB is even tougher. His A ball numbers give me something to dream on though. Reggie's numbers were solid but I have to say I was disappointed that he was hurt so much of the year. It was a tough year for our pitchers last year. Hopefully next year is better but just too little info to form any real opinion on Reggie Grace. I don't know why but my general impression on Casey Legumina was I questioned whether he had good enough stuff or not but looking at the numbers again it looks like he had a solid debut. I guess I must have seen the shaky starts? Vallimont is crazy inconsistent. I have seen him walk the bases loaded only to strike out the next two or three guys. Lots of K's but lot's of Walks. It was the beef MLB.com's profile had on him early on and it doesn't look like much has changed. I can see why the Twins added him but once again he has a big year ahead of him. Needs to harness his stuff if he ever hopes to make it. Moran was dominant in the minors last year but he was struggling as the season went on IMO. Tough debut at the MLB level but at least he has been there done that now. That change is a hammer but I worry about his Fastball getting hit out of the park. It was hittable in years past maybe it is better now but if he solves that he could be elite. His K rate has always been elite but control and and the fastball are the things that have held him back to this point IMO. I hope he reaches his ceiling I feel like I have been watching and waiting for him to make it forever.

His domination (K-rate and ERA) remind me of what Bailey Ober did in his time in the minors granted Ober doesn't have the big fastball Canterino does still their K rates were high, WHIP low and ERA low. If he stays healthy I think he will succeed when he gets the call. Has to stay healthy though and that is not easy to do as a pitcher. With health he could have positioned himself for spot in the rotation this year but hopefully he has another good year and is ready to start in 2023.

I tend to agree with you. The Twins do not have much for speed in the system so Martin is more valuable than others would be. Granted he isn't a burner as MLB has his speed rated at 55 but the only guys we have that are faster would be Lewis and Cavaco who aren't exactly proven hitters. Pretty much everyone else is average or below average. Having a good eye at the plate and an elite hit tool also makes it tough to want to get rid of him. I also don't see the Twins turning around and trading for Montas or some other pitcher on a two year deal who they won't extend because of years or whatever. I mean if they wouldn't extend one of the most durable pitchers in Berrios I can't see them ever doing it. If it is going to be a trade it will need to be in the form of the Odo or Maeda deals. A super young prospect whose potential looks good but is unknown or a highly rated relief pitcher with maybe some C prospects thrown in. We have seen the Twins deal young talent for players with Gil for Cave and Yanoa for Garcia. If there is a trade to be made that is how it will get done IMO. Like the Rays and A's they are loathe to trade close to ready future assets for a few years of control of players who they cannot or will not extend. Given the Twins trade history I think Martin is very safe to stay a Twin,

I like Bryant I really do but we have Donaldson and then there is Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach and possibly Miranda to find room for let alone Arraez once in a while for left field. You have Sano and Garver to DH along with Donaldson. It doesn't feel like a match made in heaven to me. He will probably get a 7 to 8 year deal for big time money and he has been injured and is only getting older. It just doesn't feel like a good use of money to me. I would rather they spend on pitching than another corner guy. I just don't see the Twins doing something like this.

Yeah the Rod Carew, George Brett days were fun. To the eye hits are more beautiful than walks but I still think the home run is king and I think that is what has brought us to where we are today. That dribbler through the infield is harder to come by these days so why not swing for the fences and put a run on the board with one swing? The romance with batting average seems to be gone maybe not from a fan perspective but as a strategy to win it has been replaced with OPS.

The name of the game is OPS right now and the analytics tend to show batting average is not the best way to impact OPS. Slugging has the greatest impact on runs scored and even though mighty Casey strikes out a lot when he does connect he scores a run or gets a double or triple. OBP is also important to OPS thus taking walks becomes greater than batting average. Most of the guys on this list have an OBP in the mid 300's. Rosario was a free swinger with decent BA but he didn't walk much and his OBP and thus OPS suffered for it. Eye at the plate Hard hit rate are the popular kids right now. The three outcome game (K, Walk, HR) looks like it is here to stay and the players stats above show they are being groomed that way.

Yeah I am with everyone else. I think he is doing what the FO wants him to do. Keep the players loose. Try to put players in positions to succeed mainly via analytics. Make sure no conflict in the clubhouse. Keep players engaged etc. Whether they win or lose he is doing what the FO is asking so not sure why he would be on the hot seat anymore than they would be. If he loses the players trust\respect I could see him being in trouble but I haven't seen any signs of that to this point.

Nice list! I had Palacios making the Twins 40 man especially since they needed SS help but I guess I was wrong. I still think he gets taken in Rule V. If the Twins do lose him I think they will regret not adding him but we will see. They must have been saving that spot for a veteran SS with plans on Lewis playing there eventually but I still think Palacios would have been a better bet than Gordon but they know best. At any rate he had a monster season and was a big part his teams success last year. Was great too see him break out and given his past years performance was not expected by me at all. I agree with Seth that Mack turned the bat around late in the season. Hoping he has figured some things out as he could end up being a versatile player. Let me just say that I thought Contreras was never going to make it. His 2019 season was pretty brutal at the plate and I always liked De La Trinadad better. This past year though he was money. He showed really good power this year and he plays solid defense. I think he would be a good Jake Cave replacement. Definitely someone to watch next year. I was a big fan of the Holland draft pick but his swing still is concerning. The power is there but so is the swing and miss. Hopefully things go better next year. Gray started off pretty good and then tanked most of the rest of the season. Have to say I was pretty disappointed. The eye and bat have a ways to go IMO.

I tend to agree with you but I believe in prospects and their value too much and I don't like risking the future with trades unless my team is player or two away. Still you never know what might be out there on the trade market. I never thought Odo could be had for a longshot shortstop prospect, a prospect not even close to the top 100. While I didn't love trading Graterol for Maeda that trade helped the Twins win the division in 2020. That being said I think they likely will role with what they have this year and pick up at least one and likely two bounce back candidates in FA. They have to feel Winder, Sands and Strotman are close to ready and who knows if Balazovich and SWR figure things out they could be in the mix as well. If Duran is dealing he could be bullpen help for them. Canterino could figure into the pen as well. If a few of those guys work out that could be a lot of years of control and good pitching for years to come.

I agree with you in that the Twins seem to be all in on Hard Hit Rate to the exclusion of defense. I don't feel like it has paid off to this point. I think it really took root with what the Bomba squad was able to do but with the change to the ball that hasn't really replicated itself since. They need Larnach, Rooker, Wallner and Sabato to be success stories or that will be a lot of lost draft capital to overcome. I get HHR makes sense as it appears to lead to a higher OPS with more doubles and HR's but watching Sano you can see the downside sometimes as well. Sometimes a well timed hit is better than a unproductive K. and yes sometimes a well timed HR is better than a single. I just hope the Twins can make their strategy work otherwise it could be a long road back to good to great offense.

I think you might be the low man on the FO will be gone if they have another bad year bandwagon. Not sure if you caught the quote but remember Mr. Pohlad gave his FO an A+ for their job with the team in 2021 (I assume mainly for how they dealt with adversity). At any rate that is a pretty heavy vote of confidence to get rid of them if they have a mediocre year next year. The Pohlads have always been pretty loyal as long as they feel the people they hired are respected in the industry. I think rightfully so Mr. Pohlad see's Falvine as competent in their roles and they have been coveted by other organizations in the past so they meet that respected criteria. I don't see him changing his mind unless change is desperately needed. Unless there are incompetent blunders by the FO next year I expect the A+ grades to continue.

I think the OP made some good points. I don't think that at this time the current FO has massively outperformed the Ryan regime. Still like a lot of other posters have noted this FO has time on their side yet. So this discussion is premature IMO. I am with chpettit19 though in that I think player development has improved significantly. So much so that the Marlins stole our hitting coach and the Yankee's our catching coach. There even rumors that Boston was looking into Falvey and Colorado into Levine so the industry doesn't appear to look on them as poorly as some of us do. They have turned low end pitchers like Wisler and Harper into something useful in the past. They managed to take this team to 100 wins which has only happened once before. They have had their moments. Still they have had their talent eval misses and their trades haven't been overly great and last year was a debacle. Even in that 100 win season they could not win a playoff game. Sometime things just don't go as planned. Given what I have seen they are not that much different than the Ryan regime other than their heavier use of analytics especially on the pitching side of things. They need their moves to work out or they will end up the same as Ryan.

Cruz has been a bit frustrating to watch to this point IMO. When he is on and forcing batters to swing he can dominate. When he can't hit the zone consistently he tends to get lit up. Batters just take walks or let him get behind and sit on his fastball. He has quite a bit of work to do yet as his WHIP indicates but he throws hard and if harnesses it he could be even more dominant than he already is K wise at least. I was always nervous about Rijo until he started throwing 95 or so. He has an elite Curve I believe so if starter is not in the cards he could be elite out of the pen depending on if he can get his fastball to play up. Would hate to lose him so hopefully he comes back and does well. Beck had a really good year last year, Didn't know he needed\had TJ surgery that is a bummer. Not sure if he can make it all the way to MLB or not with what he has but he surprised me this past year so who knows. I was totally down on the Gross pick when the Twins made it, but he did well IMO. He was more than solid most of the year. He wore down toward the end of the season though. I was surprised at the K rate and it will be interesting to see if can continue to do as well at the higher levels. It is a pretty nice group of arms to have at the bottom of your list of 30. I will be very interested in your top 15 but even 15 through 25 should have some names to get excited about. Thanks for separating out pitchers and hitters it is more apples to apples and we all get to see a few extra names we normally wouldn't see.

I don't know enough about Duran and Feliz to comment But Valdez had great year in 2019. Was not happy to see him back slide in 2021. Granted the competition in the FCL is tougher since they are the only big short season league now. I know he has power just needs to make more contact. Big year for him next year. Bechtold had me believing in his bat a while there but then it seemed like he lost it at the end of the season. From what I have read he is a solid defender the bat is the only thing holding him back. I just am getting the feeling his hit tool isn't going to be quite good enough but he will get another year to prove me wrong. The knock on Helman was no power and he changed that in 2021. I still think he has a chance to make it as a utility player. Not sure it will be with the Twins but he has a chance. I think Spencer Steer, Julien will be better candidates but we will have to wait and see.

This article isn't a huge surprise to me and likely isn't to many as it is pretty much what this FO has been dong since they got here. I believe they have signed zero pitchers to anything over two years in FA and traded for one (Maeda) whose price tag was hard to beat and LA needed to move. This is pretty much what they do every year. The one major difference this year is that they do have about a dozen interesting arms bubbling up and if healthy a solid half dozen that could be more than a number 5 starter. So maybe just maybe this the year we see some pitching breakouts. This team needs a lot of them to compete with the big teams. I have to say my optimism for young pitching was sapped some last year with all the injuries in the minors. Arms are just so hard to develop and hold onto for very long. I hope this a breakout year but if it isn't we might be back to square one.

Yeah I will admit I am biased when it comes to Sabato and it comes from watching him become an almost 2 outcome player as he walked or K'd in most of his at bats early in the season. It seemed like his bat had a hole in it as he massively struggled to make contact in general. He did start to pick up stream late in the second half and he was impressive at High A. Maybe unfairly but I discounted High A to some degree because of the small sample size and because with so many pitchers falling off late in the season his hit mistakes prone approach seemed likely to be more effective. Still the numbers are the numbers and he did well at high A. Jullian and his bloated BABIP probably wasn't a great comparison but they both started in A ball and Jullien had his own contact struggles but when I watched him he at least he was making contact. His K rate was pretty high as well I think higher than Sabato's but he was actually hitting the ball as well. Should all of those hits have fallen in probably not but it certainly gave those watching the impression he could make good contact bat to ball. So yeah good point on your part as I didn't look at BABIP just used my impression of watching Jullien getting hits and a near 300 average at A ball. A 451 BABIP is no where near sustainable so you could say his batting average was easily 100 points artificially high at A ball. Although his patient approach probably did get him better pitches to hit. Predictably his Average fell to around 250 at High A but his slugging was actually slightly better there as well. At any rate your factual point stands that Sabato was better than Jullien by a good margin at high A. While Rodriguez didn't hit that well my main point is that he is only 18 years old and his OPS was higher than Sabato who is 22 facing pitchers that are even more erratic than Sabato. He has 4 more years to be as bad as Sabato we will have to wait and see. Maybe Rodriquez does stay K prone and can't take a walk hard to say haven't been able to watch him so I don't know anything for sure but the numbers seem to indicate that if he can do that at 18 he likely can get much better by age 22. It was more a point about pitching and if someone 4 years younger can do just as well if not better than Sabato then how good is he? At any rate you did prove your point well. I am biased and I can see that for sure now. I do hope I am wrong and Sabato becomes the next Harmon Killebrew but he will need to show me a lot more next year to convince me.

While I haven't completely lost faith in Sabato and SSS's cannot be relied upon I think if you watched him swing in A ball it would cause concern. I saw a guy swinging out of his shoe's with the barrel not even close to the ball. Especially on breaking stuff. I get that it takes time to recognize those pitches and lay off but his ability to make contact appears limited to me. He is not an Eddie Rosario I can hit almost anything kind of bat. He is more a I think I can guess what is coming and swing out of my shoes type of bat. I am sorry but I don't buy into the hitting better with pitchers with more control. What does that say about Eduoard Jullien who was in the same league had the same walk rate or better and he hit better than Sabato. Or how about Emmanual Rodriguez who is younger and in and even lower league dealing with pitcher's with even greater lack of control and his OPS is much higher? I think it comes down to ability to put the barrel on the ball and I am concerned Sabato might not have the same level of ability some others do. Does two SSS in an inaugural season tell us much? Probably not. I kind of look at Sabato as maybe like a Nick Pratto type player. Hopefully he can adjust and get better and find that breakout season. His High A numbers give some hope but he has a ways to go to convince me he even gets a shot at MLB ball after what I saw last year.

That is a decent top 10. I would quibble with whether a few of those qualify as breakout candidates but all the names are intriguing. SWR was really good to start the season and like a lot of pitchers last year ran out of gas half way through the season. He was very young for AA and proved he belonged there at least to start the season. He has as good a chance as any of the Twins top pitchers to get the call next year. Soularie does look like a good pick to bounce back. He didn't show much power last year but with the broken foot probably understandable. The question about him in the draft seemed to be if he would have enough power in his bat to make it as he didn't really have a strong position to play other than left field. I know the Twins were thinking 2nd base as well but they have a glut of talent at 2nd right now he has a better path to left field if he can find a power stroke. After watching Sabato struggle last year I really question his ability to make it. I think if you just don't throw him any fastballs he will always have a high K rate. He looks like Rooker part 2 to me but it is early. He does have better plate discipline than Rooker so maybe just maybe he can get better outcomes at the plate. He had one of the more brutal starts for a college first round pick that I can remember. He is a long shot IMO but I hope he figures it out and becomes a force at the plate. Like everyone I love Durans potential but he hasn't pitched much and there are always questions about arms that throw 100MPH because they get stressed and seem prone to injury issues. Right now he feels more like a tease than a sure thing. He has nowhere to go but up after the last two years so should be a good breakout candidate. My guess is he gets injured again and likely needs surgery but we'll see. Agree with your number one Rodriguez. The FCL was a tougher league last year and he excelled as a young player. With more experience that K rate should get better. He looks like he could be special but it is early.

We see things pretty much the same. Unless the FO blows me away with some major trades for starting pitching I see things playing out pretty much as you described. If things go their way they could be a 500 club maybe slightly better but given what it takes to be a playoff team these days it doesn't look like we have what we need. I would have given them a C to C- for the offseason so far and like you it is because of the structure of the Buxton contract. They got a potential super star player signed to a deal that covers for injury. When does that ever happen in baseball? I think that was a pretty major accomplishment and picks up their grade from D range. The rest of their moves mainly non moves are nothing to write home about. They took a flyer on a pitcher and snuck another pitcher they wanted through to the minor's. There are still moves to be made but I think this lockout will last until close to spring training so will interesting to see how things ultimately shake out.

I agree I don't see a deal getting done in the offseason. The way things look right now the Twins kind of need his bat in the lineup. Granted if they don't do anything to help the rotation then it is likely a moot point anyway. Given what happened to Larnach and Kirilloff last year I don't know that I want to completely trust Miranda there to start the season but if they are going with a youth movement then one more isn't going to hurt. Still if Donaldson has a good start to the season he could be a good trade chip at the deadline and if the Twins are in it then I am sure they would love to keep his bat in the lineup. I just don't see a deal where the Twins feel it makes sense to unload him at this time. By midseason there will be less money left on his deal and a team that needs him would be more willing to overpay. At least that is the way I see it.

I agree with most of this. They have an MO now that they are not going to be in on the big fish and they are going to wait the market out for bargains. The one thing I do want to add to this though is they aren't acting any different than any of the other teams that receive revenue sharing money. What bottom ten team in revenue has gone out and signed any of the big names? I can't think of any. I think they are operating or trying to operate like a Tampa or Oakland to get where they want to go. Those teams try to make something out of nothing as well. So Honestly I am not too surprised that this is the way FA went for the Twins. I think this is more operating by design than being surprised by the early run on top players.

I get that the options are slim and if he bounces back some with the bat he could be the best left out there but I have to say I hated his black hole, near automatic out of a bat last year. He was a rally killer pitcher type bat. I just don't know if I want to put myself through that again this year. The defense he provided was good but he had his share of bonehead plays as well IMO. He isn't pristine in the field but yeah one of the better defenders out there. Given the current construction of this team though maybe it doesn't matter whether they sign him or not because it doesn't look like a playoff caliber team at this point anyway. Personally I might hate myself later but given the basic three outcome game I think the Twins should look for more offense out of the position versus defense. I think Simmons bat is bad enough that I would pass on him. Just one guys opinion.

I can agree with this for the most part. The owners are not showing their books and not negotiating in good faith. I think there needs to be a solid floor and I believe the owners proposed something along those lines. I am fine with a floor but what is the players association doing about creating fairer competition for Free Agents? I want my team to be able to compete in Free Agency and they currently can't. If they want me on their side they need to work on things like that as well. Until they do I am sorry but I am with the evil owners who at least afford my team some measure of fairness. Even if it is small it is better than anything the players association is offering.

I agree that if we don't want the players association to go just with the big teams the floor has to be higher. The money has to be spent on the players not just pocketed by the owners. I do think teams like Tampa, Oakland, and maybe Pittsburgh and Miami need to be moved to cities that can support them or contracted so that the floor can be at least 100M. I want to be behind the players believe me but proposing to make half the league less competitive is a non starter for me. As a fan I really do like caps as it creates a fair playing field. Everyone has the same things to work with they just need to make better decisions than the other clubs. I get why the players don't want a cap as they have no idea what the owners are making and it seems likely that it is a lot. I hate this whole thing but as a fan my greatest concern is fairer competition among teams. I don't see either side as having a proposal I am in complete agreement on but so far the players side with less revenue sharing is where they have lost me completely.