Dman

Wow I really overvalued SWR. I just thought they could get some value and I guess I was wrong about that. All that wishing. hoping and waiting for him to make it from the minors to amjors and now he is just gone. I thought given the track record of 24 and 25 he would at least fetch a prospect of some kind, but cash? That is the ultimate insult IMO. Look I get that this year he has ERA of almost 8. A poor K rate and super high WHIP. A typical journey man reliever or starter with those stats as we all know is generally only worth cash. Still a guy that just last year was a serviceable 5th starter with nearly a 9 K/9 seems like someone that could be fixed. Again I get the upside is likely minimal beyond 5th starter and he was the weakest link in the starting 5, but I just thought he might be worth something. I guess it goes to show I can get too caught up in my favorite players and think are worth more than they really are. Any bottom 10 team could have had him for a minimal prospect or cash and they passed. So his value is much lower than I anticipated. Do I think the Twins will have better future options in the 5th spot? I do. It's just hard to see him go for nothing.

I give up on Lewis. If he is going to hit a homerun every game might as well bring him back. AAA is not challenging enough it seems. Nice to see Reitz with a dominant outing. Really like that the Twins went pitching early and often in last years draft. Even the guys in the lower rounds are pitching well. If they are this good at finding arms they should focus on it more in the early rounds.

Lewis with another Homer today. I give up. If he is going to hit a home run every game now what point is there in keeping him down there? I'd see what they can do to find some room. The pitching at this level just isn't challenging enough.

I am with you on that walk rate. It's a killer and I thought it would be better this year not worse. I'll blame some of it on that cold Cedar Rapids April spring where he couldn't find the plate at all, but even with giving him that the numbers are still concerning. Still he is only 20 and still growing into his body. He has three potential plus pitches and BA just gave him spot 98 in their top 100 so I probably need to chill on my angst. I think some of it is psychological. Once teams start getting hits he seems to have a harder time finding the plate. Also getting behind in the count is a killer as just like Raya he has to come over the middle or walk the guy. There is work to be done but the stuff is there.

I tend to agree with all of that, but the questions many have if that is the case is did they reach out to see if anyone was willing to trade for him? Given teams like Colorado, the Angels, the Giants etc could use starters and are essentially out of contention, why not buy low on an arm that just last year pitched to an ERA better than most teams 5th starter? I mean even if SWR is bad all this year they'd have 4 years to fix him or wait for him to rebound. Maybe no team wanted to take that chance and felt like they could maybe just get a waiver claim if he made it to them? Still with so many teams needing arms I'd think some team would be willing to give up something half way decent to jump the queue. I get he's no ace and never will be given his arsenal, but he looked close to being a mid rotation arm if he could improve a little. Obviously he regressed and maybe those are the best numbers he will ever put up. Hard to say. I'd just think one of these rebuilding teams would be interested so the DFA is surprising.

Not gonna argue I know more than the coaches or front office, but it seems really odd that a guy that just last year pitched better at least by ERA and FIP than Ober, Matthews and Festa is no longer good enough to be on the team. Arms go through all kinds of things in a season. To give up on him this early after producing 1.8 WAR in 2024 and 1.2 in 2025 per Fangraphs seems at least questionable IMO. Sure if they think they need to win now like they are playoff bound I can maybe see it, but it seems shortsighted to me given his past history. It will be interesting to see what other teams think. Will there be a bit of a bidding war for him given his past success and years of cheap control or will teams just pass on him like the Twins are. I think that will tell me how he is viewed league wide.

I guess I just don't get that they felt they couldn't keep him on 26 man in a relief role until he found some mojo? This isn't a likely playoff team. It's a team in desperate need of a 5th starter.

I'm a huge Royce backer, but I'm still not sure he is ready. I agree with @tony&rodneythat he has seen far too many middle, middle fastballs. Must be paying the pitcher for those lol. Still some of the home runs have some off of tougher pitches. No question Royce is hitting the ball hard, but I still a fair bit of chase there still as well. Let's see how he finishes the week. Culpepper still on a heater with the bat. gonna be hard to keep him down at AAA.

We'll see. It is always a big jump so hard to know. He does throw strikes and can miss bats. Hopefully he's as good as I think he is.

If Lackey offers the better discount and the Sox feel fine about their shortstop position in the future I could easily see them pivot to Lackey. The question then becomes would the Rays skip on Cholowsky? He should be a fast mover. There is no guessing he will hit for power as he has proven he can do it. If there are "true" concerns about the swing translating would the Twins move off Cholowsky and go with Lombard? Lombard is supposed to have really good EV's can run like the wind and just has some potential hit tool challenges ahead. I have heard the Giants are extremely interested in Cholowsky would they try and buy him down to the 4th pick? This could get interesting if Lackey goes one and Emerson 2.

There are a lot of surprises in there. This might be a long post. I have been waiting for what feels like forever for Winokur to have a month like this. He has the four other tools just needs the hit tool to work out. I would love to see a promotion to AA as that level can take some time for most players to move past. Mendez might be my favorite bat. It's a great eye and contact, always contact with the ball. He is tough out for pitchers. A real pest. He just needs to find a bit more power. He is young for the level and there is time, but if the Twins are sellers at the deadline would love to get a look at him at the MLB level. I know some guys do not perform well in cold weather which make April a tough month for stats. Olivar couldn't hit a basketball in April. It was a ton of swing and miss as well as weak contact. I was shocked to see just how good his May numbers are. He has always been a solid bat, but not going to get much defensive value from him. If he keeps this up he looks close to ready even if not on the 40 man. Culpepper warmed up with the weather as well and has been the same player at pretty much every level. Not much more he can do other than give the Twins another month of this type of production and force their hand to move him up sooner rather than later. For as good as Culpepper has been Ross has been his equal. Granted Ross is older, but they almost seem like twins these days in that they both can play short and be plus there defensively and both have solid hit profiles with good power. Ross can also play in the outfield. He needs to show he can keep this level of production up the better part of this year to have a chance to get added to the 40 man. If he does it would be awesome to have a utility guy with his skill set that you could send up and down for the next three years. Fedko just needs to keep doing what he is doing and keep the pressure on. Biggest surprise is Sabato at number 1. I knew he was doing well because I kept seeing if Fedko was going to overtake him for OPS. Every time Fedko got a double or a HR Sabato did the same. I'm still not a huge Sabato fan, but I have to say he looks to be in great shape. He must be working hard on his body because he looks fit and moving about as well as I've seen. Still I think I'd rather have Fedko on the 40 man instead mainly because of defensive value and versatility. Would have to look closer at underlying numbers offensively to see if Sabato has better EV's, swing and miss or chase rates to see if I could choose him over Fedko. At any rate great month for Sabato I hope he keeps it up. Been watching Reyes, Duran and Carabello as all three have been off to hot starts. I don't know if Reyes can keep this up, but he did have an .800 OPS in the DSL last year and if he does about the same in his first year stateside I'd be happy with that. Carabello was the catcher we got in the Rule V trade and he seems to be off to repeating his numbers from last year as well. Small sample sizes on these guys, but it would be nice to find another fast moving high octane Rodriguez type bat at some point again.

Paredes has always been a solid arm, The main knock has been his fastball velocity and K rate. He never had an ERA much over 3.00 his entire minor league career. They kept him at levels far longer than they needed to and used him as a stopper out of the pen in several leagues. When starters went down they would use him as a starter. He's just been perhaps an unspectacular arm, but very reliable arm. Because of that and being an 18th round pick he has never received any top 30 love despite his really good performance since becoming pro. I feel like I have been high man on him for a while. Not sure that he will be a great player, but certainly more reliable than a lot of other arms I've seen. Call me crazy but I really think he could be a mid rotation arm in the Big leagues. I think he'll be an equal or better arm than SWR and he can come out of the pen as well. It makes me wonder if his recent performance was one reason they were willing to move on from SWR, They are the same age. About the same level ceiling and yet Paredes has three option years left and more versatility. Personally I still think they could have kept Sim so it feels like something else might be going on as well, but all things being equal Paredes should be a good replacement even if he never made a top 30.

I'm not so sure he makes it to Minnesota at number 3. hard to believe Chicago would move off of Cholowsky since he is likely a fast mover with a good power stroke at a premium position, but we've seen teams strike deals and catchers like Lackey don't come around often. While Tampa does value younger players more than most teams I could still see them trying to upgrade their catcher position for the future and it's a nice bonus to have a catcher who can hit on your team. So hard to say if he is even there at three., It seems like on pretty much all mock drafts there is a solid three developing and it's Cholowsky, Emerson and Lackey. I'd be happy with any one of them, but I think if I had to choose it would be Lackey as it's just so hard to find a good catcher. Still if they did miss out on Lackey there is a decent chance they could grab a catcher in the second round as well. We'll see what happens, but the Twins should be in good shape at number 3 no matter what.

Paredes has always been a solid arm, The main knock has been his fastball velocity and K rate. He never had an ERA much over 3.00 his entire minor league career. They kept him at levels far longer than they needed to and used him as a stopper out of the pen in several leagues. When starters went down they would use him as a starter. He's just been perhaps an unspectacular arm, but very reliable arm. Because of that and being an 18th round pick he has never received any top 30 love despite his really good performance since becoming pro. I feel like I have been high man on him for a while. Not sure that he will be a great player, but certainly more reliable than a lot of other arms I've seen. Call me crazy but I really think he could be a mid rotation arm in the Big leagues. I think he'll be an equal or better arm than SWR and he can come out of the pen as well. It makes me wonder if his recent performance was one reason they were willing to move on from SWR, They are the same age. About the same level ceiling and yet Paredes has three option years left and more versatility. Personally I still think they could have kept Sim so it feels like something else might be going on as well, but all things being equal Paredes should be a good replacement even if he never made a top 30.

Not buying Shelton's response. Twins must feel the younger arms are going to eclipse SWR and they are making this move early rather than later which very unTwins like. Still did they try and work the phones and come up with a trade? Seems like Colorado or the Angels would be willing to give something for a 25 year old starter who was pretty solid just last year. Do they really think he is going to clear waivers just because of his ERA? There were ways to make room if needed IMO. I just don't think they feel Sim's upside is better than other options they have coming up. Seems like they have lost confidence and are in win now mode and don't want to carry him while he figures things out.

Yeah this is my take as well. Once he comes back if it is the same old, same old, guess what's coming instead of seeing the ball well Royce I think I'd look for a team that has a similar type player and make a trade. Sometimes it takes a change in scenery or two to get on the right track and sometimes they never do get on track. I have a hard time giving up on him after he came out so hot that first year. Since his first big slump he has been trending down ever since. He should not have angered the baseball gods with the never slumping quote.

My bad I missed that. Thanks!

For whatever reason I still have a lot of faith in Lewis. When he is on he can flick his wrists and hit a HR. Still tons of talent there. He was just brutal to watch at the MLB level this year though. He was wildly swinging at anything. Just crazy how good he has been at AAA from the jump. Doesn't make sense to me at all. I get the quality of pitching at AAA isn't close to MLB pitching, but usually once a guy is in a funk they stay in it for a while like Wallner. I had him likely at AAA until close to the deadline. One more week of this and they might as well bring him back. Not ready to bring him back after one hot week, but if this is his new normal he might be back much, much sooner than I expected.

Hernandez must have some serious wheels to get seven stolen bases in one game. Hope he keeps hitting well. We could use more players with speed. Reitz looking good in small sample. I think if he can throw strikes he should be OK. Going to be interesting to see if someone his size can make it.

I agree with your analysis there. How about the Yankee's system? Maybe Dax Kilby and Lagrange who could be a Duran type closer if he can't make it as a starter or if you like Rodriguez better then take him. All three are lower end top 100 prospects so 2 of those and fill in with some FCL arms or who ever the Twins like further down the list? That might be a bit light but maybe workable. Unless of course the Yankees are in the bidding for Skubal. Then it probably falls apart.

Alright I'll stop hijacking.

You may be right. Maybe their marketing and inability to get lucrative TV contracts is on them. Or Maybe Minnesotan's just don't watch a lot of baseball or aren't willing to pay for it. I honestly don't know the answer. All I do know is they are included in the bottom ten teams for revenue generation and the more revenue you make the more you can spend on players and still make money. For now since they are one of the bottom ten teams means they have less to spend. Which makes it very challenging to compete for a world series title.

Well it wouldn't be just the Twins that are incompetent it would be the entire bottom 10.

I'd say St Louis is Mid market but not comparable to the small market teams that get revenue sharing. St Louis obviously pulls in more money than the bottom ten or they would be looped in with them. Sure the Twins can spend more but they also don't make as much money as St. Louis either. So if the premise is only large market teams as the bar then you are correct to add St Louis but I still think there is a difference between mid and small as well and the Twins are in the small category due to revenue sharing. St Louis has been as high as top 10 in revenue and generally around 15 on average these days though it looks like this year they are lower than normal. I'd consider big market to be those teams spending 230 to 300M per year. St Louis isn't in that category. Still if we are comparing this to what the Twins can reasonably do then I don't think it's fair to include St Louis as they are a tier above in revenue creation. So it isn't an apples to apples comparison IMO.

I agree with most of what you said there, but would remind you of the flaw in there. Lee, Keashcal and Lewis were all top 100 prospects. Culpepper, Jenkins and Rodriguez are too. If you trade Ryan for prospects there is no certainty said prospects work out any better than the ones you are ready to throw away right now. So if you are trading Ryan for top 100 prospects it might not work out. Of course you could hit on the right guy and make things work, but the odds of replacing Ryan's production even in the future is minimal. I'm not saying it's not worth doing, as I do lean toward trading him as well. Just that we have a lot of of past and present top 100 guys as is and it might take some time before we know who is going to work out and who isn't. I'm not convinced that adding even more of them helps in the short term at least. Thus my thought of adding guys further away from needing to be added to the 40 man. Bradley, Abel and Rojas look like pretty good trades right now, but have a ways to go to prove it. Gallagher, Mendez and Jimenez could be something as well, but non of them are top 100 prospects so will have to wait and see. We'll see what the Twins do come the deadline.