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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    its no courtesy to me, maybe clog your inbox copy
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    what percentage of players picked 75th overall become league average major leaguers? It requires a volume of picks to become one major league player... how many can you afford to forego for 6-12 years in the future to gain x value for the next 2 to 4 years? Is the x value of Lynn over 2-4 years worth it? I think yes, but maybe not a similar situation in a few years... the pipeline of development and talent isn’t quite there to have any certainty for year 2 but will be a higher likelihood for year 4/5
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    that was a hostile takeover and the rule of when 3G capital can take another crack at Unilever is limited by Unilever having one of its headquarters in the UK. British rules are 6 months between offers. There’s lots of second guessing among the private equity groups around Unilever turning that down. Unilever is becoming more cash strapped as they are raising margin, but can’t sustain sales growth. Not always a good comparison... and yet this one still might be in the end
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    the team was 27th in MLB in pitching last year, league average is quite the step up
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    that reported offer might have been a text hypothetical to test the water. Just cuz it was turned down, doesn’t mean the Twins won’t sign him.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    the whole point was “where there’s smoke, there’s fire”
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    because the bench isn't short enough?
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20180306&content_id=267981490&vkey=news_min&c_id=min Fascinating reversal...
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    of course Hughes gets paid, at some point the roster spot becomes more valuable being filled by an effective player making MLB min than what you owe Hughes....
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, point being, not all injuries can be solved. How long do you wait, especially with an injury that has such an unclear diagnosis and path to recovery?
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    it sounds like Molitor wants to start the season with a 4 man rotation. So the bench would be Garver, Grossman, Adrianza, Escobar. My prediction is Hughes if healthy is the Swing Man and eventual 5th starter. if he Isnt healthy still 60 day DL, if he’s healthy but ineffective give Kinley back and stash Hughes as the low leverage guy
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/mookie-betts-15744/ Betts made 950k pre arb! weird, I wonder what he has on Dombrowski
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Avisail Garcia at 4.2 fWAR in 17 got a 6.7 mil settlement I his second year of Arb, 3 mil in his first year of Arb, so hypothetically could be 13 mil or more in his third year of Arb. Buxton had 3.5 fWAR pre Arb Mookie Betts in his second year of Arb had 5.2 fWAR and got 10.5 mil settlement. His 3rd year of Arb could be 21 mil. So 25 to 40 mil for 4 years is certainly not breaking the bank, and not really something I would be concerned with hedging over. But his first years of free agency, assuming health and ongoing progression man, that could be huge. Donaldson, still in his Arb years, signed 23 mil, one year deal after a 5 war season. Gotta buy a year or two of FA. Maybe 6 years 65-70 mil? Would that get it done for Buck? Would the Twins do it?
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/thoracic-outlet-syndrome/symptoms-causes/syc-20353988 It’s not clear that he’s not still injured. Things I’ve read all have varying levels of ambiguity. TOS is not like Tommy John where it’s easily diagnosed and the surgery is somewhat common. In my mind, until he can prove that he can pitch, he can’t. It’s too bad it’s caused by injury, but results are important. To be clear, Joe Mauer was one of the best catchers in the history of baseball for 5+ years and earned a long leash. Hughes has had one good season, and a couple ok ones.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    I'd lock up Buxton and Berrios. Kepler and Rosario are good players, but haven't yet shown the upside. I'd wait on Sano, lets find out if he sticks at third this year. He isn't getting Josh Donaldson Money if he isn't playing third base.
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    right, but Bos/NYY/Tor will play each other as much as the Twins play Det/Kc/CWS. It’ll be much harder to get 90 wins in the East than in the Central.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    its gotta be better than 50/50. I’m 75% certain that tigers and royals will be in the bottom of the league and 60% pale hose will be there too. That puts me well better than 50/50 considering the AL East and AL West will be much more competitive
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    why Pressly between them?
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    you’re confusing process with outcome. Agreed on the likely outcome. Dozier never mentioned outcome. He mentioned process. Maybe he cant wait to get away, but I can’t make that assumption
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    if they did this while in contention I’d be absolutely livid. If not in contention I’d be thrilled. Most likely they’ll be some where in the middle and we’ll argue this same line in the sand in 4 months
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    he never said he wanted to leave, he said he looked forward to free agency. Now odds of Twins being the highest offer are low. Odds of Dozier being a Twin in ‘19 are low. Can’t plan for ‘19 in this case. Twins need to win in ‘18, so unless they crap the bed in the first half, they need to hold on to Dozier as he is certainly a better hitter in ‘18 than the other in house options. In November/December give Dozier the QO and take the pick. Make sure Gordon gets a couple stints with the big league club and try to upgrade in the offseason.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    very true, and agreed, but that won’t stop Levine from trying to get value out of Hughes
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    I listened, there wasn’t anything said to indicate how Hughes was doing, but Provus sounded a bit flat or something, like he could already tell it was going to end up a football score.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    if they can 60 day DL him, wouldn’t they keep him through the duration to collect money insurance?
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, competent is a great way to describe Falvine. I have not yet seen evidence of advanced ”GMing” but I feel like Falvey and Levine have shown savvy and political awareness that Ryan never did. Shrewd in the context can have positive connotation... Mostly I just wanted you to give evidence to your assertion. It wasn’t clear to me what you meant or what...
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