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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    But you can trust what’s not reported by “the media” If Darvish had turned down a larger offer to go play for the Cubs, we’d have heard about it. The MLBPA would have had a holy conniption fit, and the commissioners office would have waived that flag in mighty triumph. The Twins got outbid by a very team friendly deal compared to projections... projections that lead Mr Levine to proclaim Darvish was a priority, and therefore in reach. I hold the FO absolutely accountable for that. If they have the resources, the window is open. They need to take advantage while they can. The opt out excuse is bogus, it’s the best part of the deal, 2 great years of Darvish and he moves on. Great, the odds of 3-6 great years are slim, you sign him to the deal because that’s the cost of doing business.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    Just a guess...the Kyle Gibson effect. nibble at the edges with very hittable stuff and when you get in trouble with walks, throw it down the middle? Over his career his hard hit rate has gone from 25(ish) percent to 37. His hr/fb has gone from 10(ish) percent to 20 percent. Homers are up across the league so it’s hard to give the homer trend too much weight, but it doesn’t look like there’s much upside here. He’s cooked
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    or he consistently throws batting practice
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    being a less bad alternative to a guy with 25 innings of AAA ball can still be a train wreck.
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    the downside is he pitches just well enough that he isn’t cut and we’re stuck watching a train wreck every 5th start all season long
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    there was one left in the dumpster until nowhttps://mobile.twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/964627824190607360
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    earlier in the hot stove season I was in favor of the wait it out approach. Seems like signing values are down a bit from projected but the risk of being caught without a chair is real.
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, PTC isn’t inherently bad, and there’s levels of effectiveness with PTC. The delta in Nolasco’s FIP to ERA is largely home run rate. Home runs in aggregate can vary wildly across the league. One year up, one year down. Should Icky Ricky be dinged for them? he gave up the homers and homers are bad... but goodness, seems like everyone in the league hit 20 jacks last year. Ricky Nolasco is a number 4 pitcher, he got paid like one, but that’s 4 years and 48mil or whatever he got at the time. It’s a lot of money and one of if not the largest contract the Twins had ever dished to an outside FA. Seems like Twins fans hold Ricky accountable to the money without the context. Already doing that with Lynn and Cobb, they’re 3rd or 4th starter types not much better than Nolasco or say better than Jaime Garcia, but not huge leaps and bounds better. The delta in talent between Darvish and Cobb/Lynn is WAY bigger than the delta between Cobb/Lynn and Garcia.
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    im not sure Nolasco underperformed his peripherals as a Twin. He has always given up a lot of contact as a pitcher which doesn’t necessarily make him “bad”. Those Twins teams were terrible fielders. Seems to me like “Icky” Ricky is a fly ball pitcher and Cobb is more of a ground baller
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    maybe he could revive his rotisserie chicken restaurants. It could be Kenny Rogers Roasters Rotisserie Rotisserie
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Earned run average is a team metric. Extra bases earned is as much catcher and infielders as it is pitcher. If you are evaluating a player statistically you need to isolate the metrics to outcomes the player can control. Your buddies 3 ERA, as a control artist, he’s giving up a ton of contact. If the team he’s playing for doesn’t field their positions well, his earned runs will skyrocket. Does that make him bad? Does it make him a bad pitcher if he has a terrible SS that can’t get to anything?
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    rats? I guess... kinda good he’s not still out there to sign
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Nolasco’s career FIP is 3.97, Cobb’s is 3.68. 3/10 of a run is statistically significant difference, far cry from a full run. Are they exactly the same? No. Comparable though, especially when you bring in K9 and BB9. K9 Cobb 7.33 Nolasco 7.21 Bb9 Cobb 2.62 Nolasco 2.88 We can now get an idea of how well the pitcher pitched and the basic mechanism that got the there. Is Cobb better? Absolutely! Much better? Not really. Wins are a team stat that are not necessarily indicative of pitchers’ performance. What if your friend won 95% of his games 27 to 20?
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    if you look at K/9 BB/9 and FIP Nolasco and Hughes are good comps to Cobb and close on Lynn. Lynn’s K rate looks to be inflated by pitchers, accounting for which would bring him to be comparable to Hughes and Nolasco. Hughes original deal was actually pretty good. If he were signed for 3 years and let walk we wouldn’t have this bitter taste in our mouths about a guy who’s a 4th starter and got 4th starter money and now we all move on with our lives. Nolasco before coming to the Twins was an NL pitcher and had his stats padded by pitching to pitchers too, but the guy got his 4th starter money and provided 5th or 6th starter value. Lynn and Cobb shouldn’t be made out for more than they are just because they are the 3rd and 4th best starters available. It’s a cruddy crop past Darvish. My pref would be 1 year make good on Arrieta who could bounce back from a down year(or be in a death spiral) or sign a starter the tier below Cobb and Lynn who probably is not much of a step down and won’t require a 3-4 year deal.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Tuesday 2/20 3:30 PM Andrew Cashner 1 year 12 mil
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    im having a hard time finding the quote, but my recollection is Falvey has said things to a similar effect. I recall him saying that prospects would get goals and feed back throughout and the desired result would be maybe a little less time in rookie ball and low, and more time in double and triple A, where it made sense. Seems like Lewis and Rooker are going through the lower levels a bit faster than how I remember the TR era of management would have them progress.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    hmmm, since it’s already published as “Kepler Bobblehead Night” it’s kinda tough to put the toothpaste back in the tube... That and the freight alone to send those toys back to China or wherever to get reworked would cost far more than it’s worth, and then they wouldn’t arrive til October, 2-3 times as expensive.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    forgetting and dismissing are different things
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    more likely Tillman is bad but there aren’t any better options ready in the first half of the season (that wouldn’t hurt their development)so ride him out or find another scrap heap Bartolo type deal.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    im not a big fan of Tillman, but he could be a fine lotto ticket on a team with a solid 1-4 rotation. The Twins don’t fit that profile do they? The rookies won’t have a long enough leash to accumulate -2.2 WAR but yes, they will most certainly be on that pace in shorter stretches. None of them have near enough experience past high A nor have they gotten any of the short term call ups to the bigs. Throwing them into the deep end will be painful. It can help develop for the future, but now is not the time for that as the hitting side of the game is ready now. Now is the time to acquire a veteran rotation
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    Pitchers and catchers report in 3 days. They’ll sign Chris Tillman to be the 4th starter and bring up Slegers when they need a 5th starter
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    big assumption that Sano can play 3rd for 90 games. He has just begun conditioning and has the potential for a suspension this season. If the option is bench bat or additional utility player, Nunez would be my preference because his bat is decent. Essentially he extends the bench by providing both.
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    what about bonuses, capital gains, and property taxes? None of those are in a game check. Also, in reading my Wisconsin income tax guide. I earn income in MN and have my tax withheld at the MN rate, but I get a very slight credit that appears to be a result of some kind of marry up with reconciling the two states. Not sure tho
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    i didn’t think of that! Do you think income tax is withheld on the game check?
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    being at home 6 days on 7 days off for 6.5 to 7 months... great!
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