mikelink45

With our new manager comes a lot of new stories and expectations, but his arrival actually got me thinking about Italian heritage and the game of baseball. Like the earlier essay regarding the American Indian and another essay looking at the black pioneers who crossed that large barrier of prejudice I know that other ethnic groups also had a lot of challenges. To discover more I found a superb book – Beyond Dimaggio by Lawrence Baldassaro to guide my search.
 
In our age where we see so much racism raising its very ugly head again and so much angst about immigration, it might be hard to remember that these stories are not new and that the Italians were the focus of such issues and sentiments at one time.
 
From 1881 – 1890 307,000 Italians (approximately) came to America, in the next two decades the numbers went to 625,000 and then 2,136,000. To the many of the already existing Americans they posed a threat that was both economic and moral – threats to their jobs and their families. They had darker skin, were Catholic, spoke a different language and brought their customs and beliefs with them. They were judged guilty of being poor, uneducated, and certainly brought crime with them. The press said they were criminals and radicals and hatred exploded into incidents like New Orleans – 1891- lynching of 11 Italians after they had been acquitted. Is it any secret why Italians lived, worked, and socialized in their own neighborhoods? Or is it any secret why one of the first three Italians to become Professional baseball players would choose to go by the name – Ping Bodie – instead of Francesco Pezzolo?
 
It took time for the Italian to be established in MLB – the first was – Ed Abbatichhio who played with Honus Wagner, and made it through 9 seasons as an average ball player. The fact that he was first was significant. The fact that Ping Bodie would follow, then Babe Pinelli would complete the triumvirate as the only Italians in MLB until Tony Lazzeri in 1926. Pinelli was essential for taking on one of the biggest generalizations – Italians are hot heads! Actually he was, but he learned to control his emotion and went on to two decades as an umpire after leaving the bat and glove behind.
 
 
It was Tony Lazzeri who led the way in the 1920’s filling a role that the Yankees were searching for – an Italian who could bring in the fans from the large Italian boroughs. He did that and more as a member of the murderer’s row and eventually was elected a hall of fame 2B. But even his effectiveness in drawing fans did not stop the press from calling him a WOP – in the headlines. He was soon joined by Frank Crosetti – SS, who went on to hold the position until he groomed his replacement – Phil Rizzuto. In fact, he was so good at grooming he became a coach and his last stint was with the Minnesota Twins in 1970 – 71!
 
 
And all of this without talking about DiMaggio – all three brothers, Lombardi, Berra, Rizzuto, and all the other great Hall of Fame contributors to our favorite game.
 
 
The first Italian Manager would be Oscar “Spinach” Melillo in a short stint with the Browns, but that would change. Phil Cavarretta in 1951 was the first Italian to manage a full season. The Twins would have Sabath Anthony “Sam” Mele, Billy Martin, Frank Quilici, and Cookie Lavagetto who came with the Senators to the Twin Cities. Now we move into the new age of analytics, player/manager relations, and hopes and I welcome Rocco from our long list of Italian baseball legends.

With our new manager comes a lot of new stories and expectations, but his arrival actually got me thinking about Italian heritage and the game of baseball. Like the earlier essay regarding the American Indian and another essay looking at the black pioneers who crossed that large barrier of prejudice I know that other ethnic groups also had a lot of challenges. To discover more I found a superb book – Beyond Dimaggio by Lawrence Baldassaro to guide my search.
 
In our age where we see so much racism raising its very ugly head again and so much angst about immigration, it might be hard to remember that these stories are not new and that the Italians were the focus of such issues and sentiments at one time.
 
From 1881 – 1890 307,000 Italians (approximately) came to America, in the next two decades the numbers went to 625,000 and then 2,136,000. To the many of the already existing Americans they posed a threat that was both economic and moral – threats to their jobs and their families. They had darker skin, were Catholic, spoke a different language and brought their customs and beliefs with them. They were judged guilty of being poor, uneducated, and certainly brought crime with them. The press said they were criminals and radicals and hatred exploded into incidents like New Orleans – 1891- lynching of 11 Italians after they had been acquitted. Is it any secret why Italians lived, worked, and socialized in their own neighborhoods? Or is it any secret why one of the first three Italians to become Professional baseball players would choose to go by the name – Ping Bodie – instead of Francesco Pezzolo?
 
It took time for the Italian to be established in MLB – the first was – Ed Abbatichhio who played with Honus Wagner, and made it through 9 seasons as an average ball player. The fact that he was first was significant. The fact that Ping Bodie would follow, then Babe Pinelli would complete the triumvirate as the only Italians in MLB until Tony Lazzeri in 1926. Pinelli was essential for taking on one of the biggest generalizations – Italians are hot heads! Actually he was, but he learned to control his emotion and went on to two decades as an umpire after leaving the bat and glove behind.
 
 
It was Tony Lazzeri who led the way in the 1920’s filling a role that the Yankees were searching for – an Italian who could bring in the fans from the large Italian boroughs. He did that and more as a member of the murderer’s row and eventually was elected a hall of fame 2B. But even his effectiveness in drawing fans did not stop the press from calling him a WOP – in the headlines. He was soon joined by Frank Crosetti – SS, who went on to hold the position until he groomed his replacement – Phil Rizzuto. In fact, he was so good at grooming he became a coach and his last stint was with the Minnesota Twins in 1970 – 71!
 
 
And all of this without talking about DiMaggio – all three brothers, Lombardi, Berra, Rizzuto, and all the other great Hall of Fame contributors to our favorite game.
 
 
The first Italian Manager would be Oscar “Spinach” Melillo in a short stint with the Browns, but that would change. Phil Cavarretta in 1951 was the first Italian to manage a full season. The Twins would have Sabath Anthony “Sam” Mele, Billy Martin, Frank Quilici, and Cookie Lavagetto who came with the Senators to the Twin Cities. Now we move into the new age of analytics, player/manager relations, and hopes and I welcome Rocco from our long list of Italian baseball legends.

When it comes to the Twins coaching staff I would like to discuss the hitting coach. I know there are a lot of opinions out there that say that these ballplayers are grown men, professionals, and they don't listen to coaches anyway or you are not going to change their mechanics this late in the game. The choice to retain Rowson is somewhat bewildering to me. The immediate success of the franchise has been pinnned on the potential of Sano and Buxton. these two players have regressed offensively since Bruno left and you could throw Dozier in on this even though he is not part of the future of this team. You can correct me if this is not exactly right but Rowson is known for working to the strengths of the batter or individual and not necessarily trying to "change" the swing. While I understand the philosophy on its own, it's a little hard to apply this if no strength exists. let's take Buxton for example. Fast. Power potential. Base stealing ability. etc. All true of Buxton but you have to make contact to put any of these potential strengths to use. brunansky may not have been the answer but it seems he was helping all three of these players while he was here, to some extent. It seems he probably helped with situational hitting, what to expect during what count and proceding the previous pitch and possibly pitch recognition itself. I guess what I am getting at, or I agree with is that mechanics are mechanics at this point. Leg kick, no leg kick. Hands high, hands low. etc. None of these things will help these guys hit a curve or a slider or how to work the count for the pitch they can handle. I look at someone like Molitor, he had to have a talent or method to be so successful.....find a guy like this who can teach these things while understanding not everyone can teach what they know. The current roster has a chance if Buxton and Sano can realize their potential. So the question is, do you really want more Rowson looking for strengths or someone who can teach how to hit the tough pitches? I am afraid the Twins are wasting another year of potential on these guys, and Dozier, he should give Bruno a call.

The Dodgers may win. The Red Sox could see their magic disappear - this is baseball after all, but there are some story lines that I have really liked and wanted to point out. One of which is that talent - not analytics wins games. Sorry Aaron Gleeman, but when we retire APBA and other games and get to the teams and games that count there is much more than probability. So what are my take-aways so far?
 

Relief pitchers can't match great starters. Milwaukee was a fun experiment in defying the tradition of starters and relievers, but in fact their relievers wore out. This over emphasis on Bullpen arms has a draw back because no one can pitch 162 games - sorry Mike Marshall I know you tried. And by the end of the year the accumulated games wear the pitchers down. Did anyone see the same Jeffress in the play-offs that succeeded in the regular season? The key games for the Brewers were when Chacin and Miley started and took care of some innings to take pressure off the pen. The Red Sox Bullpen has been lights out - but Price and Sales took some innings off the board first. The Dodgers got too smart with all its match ups and not only called on Madsen one too many times but shut down Baez when he had the momentum to stop the Sox.
Strikeouts do matter. Look at the Red Sox. Down two strikes they do not give in, they do not go for the big whiff, they put the ball in play and then something happens. Of course it does not work every time, but a strike out is an out - every time. Red Sox players are not without power, but they are also not without speed and excitement. This is a team exuding what the great Rickey Henderson once had. They upset the other team, the pitchers, the catchers, the managers.
The Dodgers have shown in the first two games that you should throw out the book sometimes. They put their good hitters on the bench for match ups that have lesser results. Their formula looks old, although home cooking could fix that.
I really do think that the best teams from each league are playing each other and that is great. While I rooted for the A's and the Brewers, their styles were fun and unconventional, I am still pleased to see the teams with the best stars and the best organizations playing for the championship.

 
 
My last note for the Twins - forget the Kershaw sweepstakes. He is aging and will still want a long term contract that in the end will look like the Pujols deal.

The Dodgers may win. The Red Sox could see their magic disappear - this is baseball after all, but there are some story lines that I have really liked and wanted to point out. One of which is that talent - not analytics wins games. Sorry Aaron Gleeman, but when we retire APBA and other games and get to the teams and games that count there is much more than probability. So what are my take-aways so far?
 

Relief pitchers can't match great starters. Milwaukee was a fun experiment in defying the tradition of starters and relievers, but in fact their relievers wore out. This over emphasis on Bullpen arms has a draw back because no one can pitch 162 games - sorry Mike Marshall I know you tried. And by the end of the year the accumulated games wear the pitchers down. Did anyone see the same Jeffress in the play-offs that succeeded in the regular season? The key games for the Brewers were when Chacin and Miley started and took care of some innings to take pressure off the pen. The Red Sox Bullpen has been lights out - but Price and Sales took some innings off the board first. The Dodgers got too smart with all its match ups and not only called on Madsen one too many times but shut down Baez when he had the momentum to stop the Sox.
Strikeouts do matter. Look at the Red Sox. Down two strikes they do not give in, they do not go for the big whiff, they put the ball in play and then something happens. Of course it does not work every time, but a strike out is an out - every time. Red Sox players are not without power, but they are also not without speed and excitement. This is a team exuding what the great Rickey Henderson once had. They upset the other team, the pitchers, the catchers, the managers.
The Dodgers have shown in the first two games that you should throw out the book sometimes. They put their good hitters on the bench for match ups that have lesser results. Their formula looks old, although home cooking could fix that.
I really do think that the best teams from each league are playing each other and that is great. While I rooted for the A's and the Brewers, their styles were fun and unconventional, I am still pleased to see the teams with the best stars and the best organizations playing for the championship.

 
 
My last note for the Twins - forget the Kershaw sweepstakes. He is aging and will still want a long term contract that in the end will look like the Pujols deal.

In an era when bullpen has higher profile that starters it is surprising to see a team that prides itself on analytic decisions trade away the pitcher with the most potential and raw stuff to the American League's best team. Yes we got two prospects, but they are still raw and a gamble while Pressly is 29 and in his prime.
 
 
Of course all our pitching gurus must answer for the disparity between his 3.40 Twins ERA (not bad) and his 0.77 Astro ERA (amazing). Or his whip - 1.364 Twins and 0.60 Astros.
 
 
To quote the NYT - "Pressly rarely betrays any signs of emotional turmoil, whether it emanates from a poignant moment or from the stakes of a game heating up. He is a major component in a revamped Astros bullpen for the defending world champions, who had so many fraught moments last October that they had to turn to starting pitchers to close games." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/sports/baseball/astros-red-sox-alcs-ryan-pressly.html?emc=edit_th_181016&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=275511921016
 
 
He generated twice as much WAR in 1/2 as many games with the Astros. "Only three pitchers who threw at least 60 innings this season have had a swing-and-miss rate higher than Pressly: Craig Kimbrel of the Red Sox, Edwin Diaz of Seattle and Josh Hader of Milwaukee, three of baseball’s elite relievers."
 
 
"Pressly is the latest pitcher to experience a renaissance in Houston, which has been at the forefront of baseball’s analytics revolution. Charlie Morton has posted the two best years of his career, Gerrit Cole allowed fewer hits and struck out more than he ever has — leading baseball with 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings — and Justin Verlander has rediscovered his Cy Young form at 35. All three were All-Stars this season."
 
 
Yes our FO is gaining an unearned reputation as analytics leaders, but the proof is in the way the roster is constructed and the players develop. So far not so good Now we will seek to build a weak bullpen by hitting the FA market and hoping we find a guy who can make the pen better - a guy like Ryan Pressly.

In an era when bullpen has higher profile that starters it is surprising to see a team that prides itself on analytic decisions trade away the pitcher with the most potential and raw stuff to the American League's best team. Yes we got two prospects, but they are still raw and a gamble while Pressly is 29 and in his prime.
 
 
Of course all our pitching gurus must answer for the disparity between his 3.40 Twins ERA (not bad) and his 0.77 Astro ERA (amazing). Or his whip - 1.364 Twins and 0.60 Astros.
 
 
To quote the NYT - "Pressly rarely betrays any signs of emotional turmoil, whether it emanates from a poignant moment or from the stakes of a game heating up. He is a major component in a revamped Astros bullpen for the defending world champions, who had so many fraught moments last October that they had to turn to starting pitchers to close games." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/sports/baseball/astros-red-sox-alcs-ryan-pressly.html?emc=edit_th_181016&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=275511921016
 
 
He generated twice as much WAR in 1/2 as many games with the Astros. "Only three pitchers who threw at least 60 innings this season have had a swing-and-miss rate higher than Pressly: Craig Kimbrel of the Red Sox, Edwin Diaz of Seattle and Josh Hader of Milwaukee, three of baseball’s elite relievers."
 
 
"Pressly is the latest pitcher to experience a renaissance in Houston, which has been at the forefront of baseball’s analytics revolution. Charlie Morton has posted the two best years of his career, Gerrit Cole allowed fewer hits and struck out more than he ever has — leading baseball with 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings — and Justin Verlander has rediscovered his Cy Young form at 35. All three were All-Stars this season."
 
 
Yes our FO is gaining an unearned reputation as analytics leaders, but the proof is in the way the roster is constructed and the players develop. So far not so good Now we will seek to build a weak bullpen by hitting the FA market and hoping we find a guy who can make the pen better - a guy like Ryan Pressly.

In an era when bullpen has higher profile that starters it is surprising to see a team that prides itself on analytic decisions trade away the pitcher with the most potential and raw stuff to the American League's best team. Yes we got two prospects, but they are still raw and a gamble while Pressly is 29 and in his prime.
 
 
Of course all our pitching gurus must answer for the disparity between his 3.40 Twins ERA (not bad) and his 0.77 Astro ERA (amazing). Or his whip - 1.364 Twins and 0.60 Astros.
 
 
To quote the NYT - "Pressly rarely betrays any signs of emotional turmoil, whether it emanates from a poignant moment or from the stakes of a game heating up. He is a major component in a revamped Astros bullpen for the defending world champions, who had so many fraught moments last October that they had to turn to starting pitchers to close games." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/sports/baseball/astros-red-sox-alcs-ryan-pressly.html?emc=edit_th_181016&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=275511921016
 
 
He generated twice as much WAR in 1/2 as many games with the Astros. "Only three pitchers who threw at least 60 innings this season have had a swing-and-miss rate higher than Pressly: Craig Kimbrel of the Red Sox, Edwin Diaz of Seattle and Josh Hader of Milwaukee, three of baseball’s elite relievers."
 
 
"Pressly is the latest pitcher to experience a renaissance in Houston, which has been at the forefront of baseball’s analytics revolution. Charlie Morton has posted the two best years of his career, Gerrit Cole allowed fewer hits and struck out more than he ever has — leading baseball with 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings — and Justin Verlander has rediscovered his Cy Young form at 35. All three were All-Stars this season."
 
 
Yes our FO is gaining an unearned reputation as analytics leaders, but the proof is in the way the roster is constructed and the players develop. So far not so good Now we will seek to build a weak bullpen by hitting the FA market and hoping we find a guy who can make the pen better - a guy like Ryan Pressly.

The Minnesota Twins are now in the final week of their 2018 Major League Baseball season. With a Postseason berth eliminated from reality, the final seven games will be of little significance. Given the opponents coming to Target Field include the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, opportunity to play spoiler isn't present either. That said, these contests remain a proving grounds for players looking to crack the 2019 Opening Day roster.
 
Right now, there's some intrigue as to whether or not we're witnessing the end of Joe Mauer's heralded career with the hometown team. These could be his final days in a major league uniform, and although I believe he'd be of service to the club in 2019, it appears that no decision has been reached at the present time.
 
For the guys that are significantly Mauer's junior, they are still looking to make a final imprint on the organization in hopes of vaulting themselves into a more secure position next spring. While the final week may be somewhat of a slog for the battle tested veterans, no opportunity can be taken for granted when looking to stay at the game's highest level.
 
This season, the Twins have trotted out more than a handful of rookies. Here's a look back at how they've all performed.
 
Mitch Garver - C
 
Somewhat unfortunately for the organization, Garver was turned loose relatively early this year. Instead of being able to serve as Jason Castro's understudy, he was pushed into a starting role after a knee injury ended Jason's season. While Mitch looked raw behind the plate early on, it's been more than apparent that he made strides as the season went on. Working with veterans like Bobby Wilson, and briefly Chris Gimenez, his glove work improved dramatically.
 
On the offensive side of this, his .734 OPS was more than welcomed behind the dish for Minnesota. He was easily the most productive offensive asset as a backstop, and there appears to be some legitimate pop in his stick. Over a full season, he's a likely double-digit longball guy, and he's pushed himself into the conversation for more work next season. It remains to be seen if Minnesota will make changes at catcher, but Garver didn't hurt his positioning at all.
 
Jake Cave - OF
 
Maybe one of the most shrewd moves in the early tenure of the Twins new front office, Jake Cave was acquired as outfield depth from a Yankees system that simply didn't have room for him. With Byron Buxton having a lost year, and Zack Granite falling out of the picture, Cave harnessed the opportunity presented to him.
 
Early on, Cave should've gotten more run than veteran retread Ryan LaMarre, but that didn't stop him from turning heads on a near daily basis. In 85 games this season Cave owns a .771 OPS and has ripped 12 homers. At 25 years old, he's somewhat of an elder rookie, but there's plenty of reason to believe that this is just scratching the surface. He's easily Minnesota's 4th outfielder to open up 2019, and it's been apparent than he can start for stretches when need be as well.
 
Willians Astudillo - UT
 
After over 630 minor league games, Astudillo finally graced Major League Baseball with his presence. The folk tale of a chubby catcher than picked off runners without looking and never struck out came to the big leagues and initially started as an outfielder, third basemen, and second basemen. Now settled into a utility role, and backup catcher, Astudillo has seen regular run down the stretch.
 
It's just a 23 game sample size, but the .877 OPS is certainly eye opening. It's hard to imagine Minnesota carrying three catches on Opening Day next season, but there's worse ways to use a 40 man roster spot early on in November. This could very well end up being the last we hear of Astudillo, or he could continue to be an out-of-nowhere spark for a Twins team eyeing the Postseason a year from now.
 
Fernando Romero - SP
 
First it was Jose Berrios, and then it was Fernando Romero. When it came to Twins starting pitching prospects, those were the cream of the crop. Romero's electric fastball has pushed him into the conversation of a true ace, and he looked the part in small bursts this season.
 
The numbers themselves are all unremarkable, and he didn't light Triple-A on fire after returning. That said, the 55.2 IP in the majors as a 23 year old should prove invaluable when setting him up for future success. I'd imagine the Twins front office will be looking to upgrade the rotation again this winter, and that likely keeps Fernando at Rochester on Opening Day, As a first man up however, that's a heck of an arm to turn to.
 
The Best of the Rest- Zack Littell, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, and Adnrew Vasquez
 
None of these guys got much time to really cement any sort of significant expectations for the year ahead. Littell, Gonsalves, and Stewart should all open 2019 in the Triple-A rotation, and getting a look at big league talent could do wonders for their offseason preparation. While none of them have dominant stuff, honing in on command and pitchability should continue to remain a key focus for them. Again noting the Twins depth, there's at least one capable big league starter in this trio, and Minnesota having them to turn to next season isn't a bad thing at all.
 
Vasquez was the lone rookie to get a relief chance this season. Working just 2.0 IP despite entering six games, manager Paul Molitor obviously displayed a short leash. Over such a small sample size you can't draw any definitive conclusions, but it's more than apparent that the meteoric rise from High-A to start the year was impressive. At every level, Vasquez posted massive strikeout totals and tended to keep his walks in check. If he can replicate a portion of that for the Twins, they'll have developed a nice pen piece.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

A lot of us were shocked by the Buxton treatment this year, from playing him with an injury to denying him his September call up. We were almost equally shocked to see Sano sent to A ball and when he returned people talked about him looking a little thinner, but then the season played on and before ending with another injury he resorted to the same 200 hitting occasional Home Run hitter.
 
 
September call ups included Matt Belisle and a trade for Gimenez, more time for Johnny Field and not much excitement outside the young pitchers and that wonderful Opener experiment. Gonsalves, our top pitching prospect has stunk, Littell who has been called up a couple of times continues to stink (I know that they want to make that trade look good for the FO). Stewart has improved as we continue to pitch him against the mighty Tigers and Busenitz has demonstrated that AAAA is his best hope (when will they open that league?).
 
Of course there is one rookie who looked really good early in the Season, but he could not even be called up to toss a couple BP sessions - Romero.
 
 
Among hitters only Astudillo has appeared and that is because we have our original starter out for the season, our next starter out with a concussion, our first reserve traded for last years reserve and only Astudillo available for actually crouching behind the plate.
 
 
No look at Rooker or Gordon or any other potential hitters. So how good is our player development? I just read the Athletics Matthew Kory in the season ending power ranking and his comments really jumped out at me.
 
 
"One of the things that good teams do is draft talented players, develop them in the minors, and turn them into stars when they get to the big leagues. The Red Sox have done that with Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. The Indians have done that with José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor. The Astros have done that with Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman (and George Springer) (and José Altuve). The Twins should have done that with Miguel Sanó and Byron Buxton… but they haven’t. Despite loads of talent, Sanó is barely playable and Buxton supposedly isn’t even ready for a September call-up. If you’re looking for the difference between Minnesota and every playoff team in baseball, that’s it in a nutshell."

What do we make of the Twins bullpen in this era where bullpens have supplanted starters? Closers, Openers, Lefty and righty specialists, relievers for innings 5,6,7,8,9. Lots of warm ups, lots of wasted time. In my world we would not have openers and we would limit the teams to 4 pitchers per nine innings which would really make the manager think about who to bring in and when - if they are on their third pitcher in the sixth inning. We might have to teach starters to learn what starters in the past learned – how to conserve themselves, who to put max effort into, and to think about quick outs instead of 6 – 9 pitch outs. But my dream does not count so what should the Twins do about their 2019 – 2020 Bullpens?
 
We have the following players in our current Bullpen:
Belisle – overused – even if it is once a week or once a month
Hildenberger – overused and should not be in the ninth
Reed – Can he be what he once was?
May – just to make everyone angry, I will tell you I think he is overrated.
Drake – Not on a good team, but are we a good team?
Magill – Nice surprise can he keep it up?
Busenitz – running out of chances
Rogers – finishing the best of all
Mejia – Not sure what to think of him in BP
Goya- Our opener specialist
Duffey – Hope your next team can get you effective again
Curtiss – okay, but
Vasquez – Nice to see the advance, but do they really expect him in MLB next year?
Gimenez – I know he is a ringer
Which ones do you want to keep? They are all on the 40 man roster. Who would you DFA – I would choose Gimenez, Belisle, Busenitz, Duffey as my for sure DFA group, but would not mind if we could move up from Curtiss, Magill, and Drake.
 
Then in the minor leagues we have:
A different Reed
Anderson
Moran
Stashak
Molina
Harper
 
All were included in Seth Stoths minor league reliever of the year. Only Vasquez, Moya, Curtiss, and Busenitz were called up from the entire list. Why not all of them in September? I know service time, etc. Anyone you want to predict will be on the roster in the next two seasons? Go ahead and move starters in if you want, I have not seen enough of the young pitchers to want Gonsalves, Stewart, Little, DeJong in my pen.
 
Here is the Relief pitcher Free Agent Class for your shopping pleasure – but remember that very few relief pitchers can sustain their effectiveness and seldom to they come in and shine for their new club:
Adam Ottavino (33 years old, 2.2 WAR)
Jeurys Familia (29, 1.8)
David Robertson (34, 1.3)
Craig Kimbrel (31, 1.2)
Sergio Romo (36, 1.0)
Jesse Chavez (35, 1.0)
Oliver Perez (37, 0.8)
Jake Diekman (32, 0.7)
Tony Sipp (35, 0.7)
Brad Brach (33, 0.7)
Zach Duke (36, 0.7)
Joe Kelly (31, 0.6)
Justin Wilson (31, 0.6)
Mark Melancon (34, 0.5) -- Can opt out of the two years and $28 million remaining on his contract.
Tyler Clippard (34, 0.4)
Andrew Miller (34, 0.4)
Kelvin Herrera (29,0.4)
Tony Barnette (35, 0.3)
Aaron Loup (31, 0.3)
Bud Norris (34, 0.3)
Jonny Venters (34, 0.3)
Adam Warren (31, 0.3)
John Axford (36, 0.2)
Greg Holland (33, 0.2)
Shawn Kelley (35, 0.2)
Jerry Blevins (35, 0.1)
Santiago Casilla (38, 0.1)
Fernando Salas (34, 0.0)
Ryan Madson (38, 0.0)
Zach McAllister (31, 0.0)
Blake Wood (33, 0.0)
Daniel Hudson (32, -0.1)
Zach Britton (31, -0.1)
Jorge De La Rosa (38, -0.1)
Jeanmar Gomez (31, -0.1)
AJ Ramos (32, -0.2)
Jim Johnson (36, -0.2)
Matt Belisle (39, -0.2)
Randall Delgado (29, -0.2)
Boone Logan (34, -0.3)
Brad Ziegler (39, -0.3)
Cody Allen (30, -0.3)
Hector Santiago (31, -0.4)
Peter Moylan (40, -0.4)
Junichi Tazawa (33, -0.6)
Blaine Boyer (37, -0.9)
Josh Tomlin (34, -1.3)
David Phelps (32, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018.
Joaquin Benoit (41, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018.
https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274
 
 
Not easy because we are not blessed with great arms like some teams and we have not shown an ability to develop them. With the average now close to 4 pitchers per game per team and going up can we get by with 8 relief pitchers – five starters and that makes 13. Can relief pitchers come in every other game? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-bullpens-took-over-modern-baseball/
 
Don Mattingly got steamed https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article218196470.html on September 15 when the two teams – Phillies and Marlins used a total of 15 relievers in one game! No pitcher recorded 6 outs in the game.
 
So what happens next – that was a September open roster game, but will we start to see rosters with a second catcher, a utility man and the rest pitchers? Stay tuned.
 
Give it a try – who will you depend upon?

A lot of us were shocked by the Buxton treatment this year, from playing him with an injury to denying him his September call up. We were almost equally shocked to see Sano sent to A ball and when he returned people talked about him looking a little thinner, but then the season played on and before ending with another injury he resorted to the same 200 hitting occasional Home Run hitter.
 
 
September call ups included Matt Belisle and a trade for Gimenez, more time for Johnny Field and not much excitement outside the young pitchers and that wonderful Opener experiment. Gonsalves, our top pitching prospect has stunk, Littell who has been called up a couple of times continues to stink (I know that they want to make that trade look good for the FO). Stewart has improved as we continue to pitch him against the mighty Tigers and Busenitz has demonstrated that AAAA is his best hope (when will they open that league?).
 
Of course there is one rookie who looked really good early in the Season, but he could not even be called up to toss a couple BP sessions - Romero.
 
 
Among hitters only Astudillo has appeared and that is because we have our original starter out for the season, our next starter out with a concussion, our first reserve traded for last years reserve and only Astudillo available for actually crouching behind the plate.
 
 
No look at Rooker or Gordon or any other potential hitters. So how good is our player development? I just read the Athletics Matthew Kory in the season ending power ranking and his comments really jumped out at me.
 
 
"One of the things that good teams do is draft talented players, develop them in the minors, and turn them into stars when they get to the big leagues. The Red Sox have done that with Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. The Indians have done that with José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor. The Astros have done that with Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman (and George Springer) (and José Altuve). The Twins should have done that with Miguel Sanó and Byron Buxton… but they haven’t. Despite loads of talent, Sanó is barely playable and Buxton supposedly isn’t even ready for a September call-up. If you’re looking for the difference between Minnesota and every playoff team in baseball, that’s it in a nutshell."

A lot of us were shocked by the Buxton treatment this year, from playing him with an injury to denying him his September call up. We were almost equally shocked to see Sano sent to A ball and when he returned people talked about him looking a little thinner, but then the season played on and before ending with another injury he resorted to the same 200 hitting occasional Home Run hitter.
 
 
September call ups included Matt Belisle and a trade for Gimenez, more time for Johnny Field and not much excitement outside the young pitchers and that wonderful Opener experiment. Gonsalves, our top pitching prospect has stunk, Littell who has been called up a couple of times continues to stink (I know that they want to make that trade look good for the FO). Stewart has improved as we continue to pitch him against the mighty Tigers and Busenitz has demonstrated that AAAA is his best hope (when will they open that league?).
 
Of course there is one rookie who looked really good early in the Season, but he could not even be called up to toss a couple BP sessions - Romero.
 
 
Among hitters only Astudillo has appeared and that is because we have our original starter out for the season, our next starter out with a concussion, our first reserve traded for last years reserve and only Astudillo available for actually crouching behind the plate.
 
 
No look at Rooker or Gordon or any other potential hitters. So how good is our player development? I just read the Athletics Matthew Kory in the season ending power ranking and his comments really jumped out at me.
 
 
"One of the things that good teams do is draft talented players, develop them in the minors, and turn them into stars when they get to the big leagues. The Red Sox have done that with Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. The Indians have done that with José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor. The Astros have done that with Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman (and George Springer) (and José Altuve). The Twins should have done that with Miguel Sanó and Byron Buxton… but they haven’t. Despite loads of talent, Sanó is barely playable and Buxton supposedly isn’t even ready for a September call-up. If you’re looking for the difference between Minnesota and every playoff team in baseball, that’s it in a nutshell."

A lot of us were shocked by the Buxton treatment this year, from playing him with an injury to denying him his September call up. We were almost equally shocked to see Sano sent to A ball and when he returned people talked about him looking a little thinner, but then the season played on and before ending with another injury he resorted to the same 200 hitting occasional Home Run hitter.
 
 
September call ups included Matt Belisle and a trade for Gimenez, more time for Johnny Field and not much excitement outside the young pitchers and that wonderful Opener experiment. Gonsalves, our top pitching prospect has stunk, Littell who has been called up a couple of times continues to stink (I know that they want to make that trade look good for the FO). Stewart has improved as we continue to pitch him against the mighty Tigers and Busenitz has demonstrated that AAAA is his best hope (when will they open that league?).
 
Of course there is one rookie who looked really good early in the Season, but he could not even be called up to toss a couple BP sessions - Romero.
 
 
Among hitters only Astudillo has appeared and that is because we have our original starter out for the season, our next starter out with a concussion, our first reserve traded for last years reserve and only Astudillo available for actually crouching behind the plate.
 
 
No look at Rooker or Gordon or any other potential hitters. So how good is our player development? I just read the Athletics Matthew Kory in the season ending power ranking and his comments really jumped out at me.
 
 
"One of the things that good teams do is draft talented players, develop them in the minors, and turn them into stars when they get to the big leagues. The Red Sox have done that with Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. The Indians have done that with José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor. The Astros have done that with Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman (and George Springer) (and José Altuve). The Twins should have done that with Miguel Sanó and Byron Buxton… but they haven’t. Despite loads of talent, Sanó is barely playable and Buxton supposedly isn’t even ready for a September call-up. If you’re looking for the difference between Minnesota and every playoff team in baseball, that’s it in a nutshell."

The Twins have ridden the roller coaster during the Paul Molitor era. Up in 2015, way down in 2016, a peek at the playoffs in 2017 and now way down in 2018. The roller coaster claimed a front-office victim in longtime GM Terry Ryan two years ago and now there has to be some heat on field manager Molitor after this season's extreme disappointment.
 
The complaints about the old regime included being too "old school", including pitch-to-contact staffs, not using advanced metrics, cookie cutter approaches to hitting, and of course, not spending enough to bring in and keep talent. Fair complaints all, I think. However, in the Levine/Falvey era, we see little real progress and a real lack of talent in the upper minors. This year's crop of September call-ups is among the most uninspiring in recent memory.
 
I believe there are two keys to being competitive and sustaining that competitiveness for a number of years. The first is pitching. Levine and Falvey are supposed to be pitching guys. They have acquired pitching, but with mixed results at best. Their best talent at the top levels of the farm system doesn't have many, if any, outstanding talents. Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi didn't move the needle much for the big club this year. Perhaps they have suffered from some bad luck and just need to add quality until it sticks and stays. All I can say is this, the Twins rank in the bottom third of almost every meaningful pitching stat. You don't win year after year with far below average pitching.
 
The other component which is missing in my opinion is defense. For the last two years, the Twins have gone with a primary shortstop who is well below average defensively, couple that with a revolving door in center field this year, the trading of the regular second baseman and the season-ending injury to primary catcher Jason Castro, and you have a toxic mess turning outs into outs. Further, and if there is one complaint about Molitor that sticks, it is this. The team has been woeful at executing fundamental baseball. I'm talking about throwing to the proper base, making needless throws, failing to hit cutoff men and the like. Add in that opposing baserunners are taking extra bases like free gifts and this is tough to watch.
 
I think the front office needs to commit to pitching and defense in a big way this offseason. That would include making every effort to keep their most gifted defender (Byron Buxton) in Minnesota and on the field as much as possible. Secondly, I think the Twins need a defensive-minded shortstop, with the idea that Jorge Polanco can move to what I think is his natural position, second base. On the pitching front, more and better arms to augment the so-so rotation (I think Gibson/Berrios/Odorizzi is fine for #2-4) and a questionable bullpen. I like May/Hildenberger/Rogers, but more is needed included a closer.
 
The Twins have been in the baseball wilderness long enough. They need to have a solid plan for improvement, stick with it and stay relevant not for an occasional year, but consistently. I think the long suffering fan base deserves it.

With the closing of the minor league baseball season on the field, we open up the biennial minor league affiliation-swap season and, to nobody's surprise, the Twins have extended their affiliation with the Class High A Fort Myers Miracle.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/fortmyersmiraclebaseball-600x416.jpg
 
Teams are allowed to sign agreements for either two or four years and the Twins/Miracle extension will run through the 2022 season.
 
With the current governing agreement between Major League Baseball and Minor League Baseball (aka MiLB) scheduled to run only through 2020, not many affiliation agreements between MLB teams and their minor league partners have been renewed beyond 2020.
 
The Twins and Mriacle, however, have become the tenth partnership to be renewed through 2022.
 
The others are Salt Lake City (LAA-AAA), Tacoma (SEA-AAA), Altoona (PIT-AA), Mobile (LAA-AA), Trenton (NYY-AA), West Michigan (DET-A), Wisconsin (MIL-A), Eugene (CHC-Short A) and Vancouver (TOR-Short A).
 
Of course, there are also about 40 minor league teams that are now owned in whole or in part by their MLB parents, so those agreements are virtually locked in place in perpetuity, though those teams can (and sometimes do) change cities. For example, the Twins own their Rookie level club in Elizabethton, but that doesn't mean they couldn't elect to move that club's operation to another city.
 
The Twins are signed with their AAA affiliate in Rochester and their A affiliate in Cedar Rapids through 2020, but their AA agreement with the Chattanooga Lookouts expired with the end of the 2018 season.
 
The Twins have been in Chattanooga only four years, but the facilities there are widely known not to measure up to most newer modern AA level sites. The fact that the Twins and Lookouts did not sign an extension before the season came to a close indicates that one or both parties was interested in exploring other options.
 
If the Twins do want to look for a new host for their AA level club, their options are apparently limited.
 
The website BallparkDigest.com does a great job of keeping up with affiliate agreements and hosts a very helpful page where they keep tabls on the status of all MLB/MiLB affiliations. According to the Ballpark Digest list, only four other AA affiliation agreements have expired in 2018.
 
Those cities (and current MLB affiiliate) are Midland TX (OAK), Pensacola FL (CIN), Amarillo TX (SD) (moving from San Antonio) and Knoxville TN (CHC).
 
2020 could potentially see an avalanche of affiliation agreements expiring, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Twins and Chattanooga decide to sign a two-year extension, but it certainly wouldn't be a shock to see the Twins announce a move to one of the other four locations, either.
 
Unrelated to anything having to do directly with the Twins is the interesting way that some minor league relocations are affecting the landscape.
 
Colorado Springs has been a long-time member of the AAA Pacific Coast League, but their ownership is moving the club to San Antonio, which had previously been home to a AA Texas League club.
 
The former AA San Antonio team is moving to Amarillo, where they will open a new $45+ million ballpark, which I have to believe the Twins (and others) would love to call home.
 
Colorado Springs, meanwhile, will have to settle for hosting a Rookie level short season club, relocating there from Helena MT.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

I am back from guiding a hiking trip in Michigan where I got to watch the Detroit Tigers play a few games against the Cardinals - fun to see Gardenhire. As I watched their struggles to find the right Outfielders for the future I was interested in the various players that they put in and how each had different potentials and strengths. But it got me thinking about the Twins. For the last two years we have been led to think of the outfield as Rosario/Buxton/Kepler. But is it those three for the future?
 
I know we have had LaMarre and Field out there during the year and they do not excite me. We have used Adrianza in the OF as well as Astudillo, and Taylor Motter. Logan Morrison was even in the OF for two games. And of course we have had Jake Cave and Robbie Grossman playing extensively in the OF.
 
No minor leaguers were brought up this fall to get any MLB time in the OF but Wade seems like a candidate and eventually we will have more minor leaguers move up to challenge I hope. But what is the immediate future - the next two years? Who will be have out there when we turn the corner?
 
Start with the Big Three
Byron Buxton has had a lost year. He is 24 and has been with the team for parts of 4 years. His defense is out of this world, his slash line for the four years is 230/285/387 and we all know the drama that was 2018. 6.8 WAR
Eddie Rosario seems to be the one who stepped up this year, leading the team in all the batting categories and playing a steady, if unspectacular OF. In his four years he has a slash line of 280/312/471. 8.6 WAR
Max Kepler has not regressed, he has not progressed, he is not a star, is he a starter? His slash for the same four years is 235/314/421 and he has an accumulated WAR of 6.7.

Before looking at other options - if I take the lazy route and just add and average these three players we would have an OF with a 248/303/408 slash and 1.8 WAR. Not good enough for a team that wants to be a champion.
 
The two players on the team that look like our next OF candidates - Sorry Adrianza and Astudillo - are Grossman and Cave. Two players who elicit very different responses from TD fans.
Robbie Grossman has been our number 4 OF for three years and has played in 331 games (DH and 1B included). His slash line for MN 262/365/397 which is actually a good line for a number 4 if we do not consider his OF range and defense.
Jake Cave is our find of the year, after Motter and LaMarre and numerous other dumpster dives we were able to get Cave out of the Yankees and he has produced. 265/311/487 slash and 1.7 WAR for 76 games. He hustles and looks good but his fielding is not as good as some might claim. In the long run, when it comes to defense, Buxton has no worries.

That is five players for starting and bench. Are they the right five and in the right order? The 40 man roster still has Zack Granite who had a lost year and Johnny Field.
Granite earned 0.3 WAR in 93 ABs in 2017 and played better CF than all but Buxton. In 2018 he played in 68 games before ending his year with injury. He batted 211/282/245, He is 25 years old.
Johnny Field has been in 13 games so far with a slash line of 071/100/171. If we look at his entire 2018 year he has 75 games and 193/231/330. I hope to not see him on the 40 next year.

The next question is who is in the minors who might be up soon? MLB.com has a top 30 for each team - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=min Our number two is Alex Kiriloff - how long before he comes up - will it be in the next two years? If he does Kepler better watch out because RF is his best position. Trever Larnach is in his first year, but already prospect #6. Too early to project him as a Twin. Akil Baddoo is #12 and so far has been a CF player. LaMonte Wade is #13 and seems the most ready for 2019.
LaMonte Wade Age 24 has a minor league slash of 257/360/380 reminiscent of Grossman, but better in the field. He does not have power, but controls the plate.
Alex Kiriloff is moving so fast he cannot be left out of the discussion for 2019 and definitely should be looked at for 2020. 348/392/578 is a slash line that cannot be ignored. Yes he is young, but you might notice that Atlanta and the Nationals both had players as young as him starting in their OFs this year.
Akil Baddoo is 20, but could move fast and be a factor in 2020. 243/351/419.
Trevor Larnach is 21, but is in his first year - 303/390/500 is an impressive start - 2020 is an outside possibility if the Twins are aggressive.
Gilberto Celestino - just 19. He is our #14 prospect but should not be in this two year window.
Gabriel Maciel is also just 19 and ranked #17. At least three years away.
Luke Raley can play 1B or OF and is ranked #19. 275/350/471 He has the advantage of being someone the FO traded for - he is one of theirs and is considered a Grinder - Molitor will like that.
Jacob Pearson is the last OF ranked in the top 30 Twins Prospects - He is age 20 with the Kernels this year and should be three years away.

So that is the assortment we can work with in our system. Not counting more dumpster diving the following are Free Agent OFs for 2018.
Bryce Harper - forget it
Adam Jones - Not worth it
Brett Gardner - he is already 35
Nick Markakis - he too is 35
Carlos Gonsalves - 33 coming from the light air of CO
Michael Brantley - 32 - it would be nice to take him from Cleveland
Steven Pearce - 36 - no thanks
Lonnie Chisenhall - 30 - another Indian on the market
Matt Joyce - 35. NO NO NO
Curtis Granderson - 38, another old man, no thanks
Carlos Gomez - 33, no we have already had him once
Marwin Gonsalves - 30 - from Houston, interesting player.
Cameron Maybin - 30 - nope
Jon Jay - 34 - no interest
Chris Young - 35, Angels, no
Rajai Davis - 38 - another Cleveland OF - we could fill up with these guys, but no thanks
Leonys Martin - 31, Guess which team - you Cleveland
Gregor Blanco - 35 from SF. I say no to any over 32.
Shane Robinson - 34 - Yankees
Eric Young - 34 - Angels
Brandon Barnes - 33- ANOTHER INDIAN!
Jose Bautista - 38 - yes 38, no
Austin Jackson 32 from the Mets
Ben Revere - 31 - No retreads
Some more with no resume, no interest on the list!

Now comes the hard part - arrange them as you would like - this is the order I expect:
2019
Rosario
Cave
Kepler
Buxton
Grossman
Raley

2020
Rosario
Kiriloff
Cave
Buxton
Raley
Baddoo

Where is Kepler, Wade...I expect trades. I would rather have Wade that Grossman in 2019, but I do not see the Twins making that move, I see him traded before being rostered. I am trying to guess at the Twins as much as looking at what I would like to see.
 
Have at it.

For years baseball played with shortstops that could cover a lot of ground and if they hit well it was a bonus - Marty Marion and Ozzie Smith made the hall like this. Mark Belanger was the glue of Earl Weaver's championship Orioles and Zoilo Versalles brought the Twins to their first World Series.
 
Now we masquerade SS with all the shifts but still we look at Lindor and Correa and other great gloves with great arms as prototype shortstops. Notice how many professional athletes began as Shortstops - that includes Sano. Because the best athlete was the SS. On a site called Dick's Pro Tips the little league teams are given this advise - "Arguably, this should be one of your best defensive players. The shortstop should show great range and the ability to field sharply hit baseballs. Choose someone who has an above-average arm, as many of their throws will be a great distance."
 
Some might argue catcher and they get a lot of points, but they do not have to move as fast and as many directions, catch hops, drives, popups, and bad hops. Nor do they turn DPs.
Think about what happens when a shortstop blows a catch, misses on a DP, or drops a pop up. We can put big oafs that hit Homeruns at 1B and even 3B, but not at SS. We can put good gloves with limited range at 2B (hate to say that since I played 2B), but at SS we want quickness, range, and arm. It is a position that demands a lot and is involved in a lot.
 
I bring that up because Polanco is really disappointing this year. I do not have a stat that tells me how much offense is needed to offset bad defense. He has now reached 50 Errors at SS, not counting other positions, in 3 years. Too many. His fielding percentage, his errors, and his defensive WAR are all near the bottom. If the Twins are going to move up in the standings, we have to move up in the quality of each position and Jorge is not cutting it right now. Do we have hope that will change?

Who's on second does not have the ring of who's on first, but it is a legitimate question. After my last two blogs puzzling over SS and 3B where we are below league average in fielding, we need some strength up the middle. I will not speculate on Dozier and his half year greatness routine because I do not see him coming back. I hesitate to speculate about Escobar which is a big fan favorite for every infield position, but he has now seen the bigger world and knows he can make some choices.
 
So there is Logan Forsythe. He has had 2700 ABs and has a lifetime average of 249 and a total WAR of 12.9 so he is not a terrible choice. He will not have the HR power of Dozier, but he should not have the 1/2 year splits that Dozier did either. His defensive WAR accumulated over 8 seasons is 12.9 - not spectacular, more league average. In fact, if you look closer, he accumulated just under 1/2 of that WAR in one really good year - 2015. If SS and 3B were great we could tolerate league average, but with league average being the highest of the three positions I am not sure that we can look at this as a championship infield.
 
Of course Polanco could slide to 2B or 3B and then we have to figure out SS, but I am not looking at signing or trading players in this essay. I want to see what is in the cupboard. Adrianza is our backup for all three positions. This year, according to Baseball Reference Adrianza has a -0.3 WAR for 2018. Good utility, but too much exposure is not good.
 
Who is in the minors - Petit is our fall infield call up. Gregorio is 33 years old and has a 0.1 WAR over parts of six years. I do not nominate him for second base full time. For the Rochester Redwings we had Alex Perez play 14 games and bat 244 and Taylor Featherstone played 55 and batted 167. I do not believe either of them is going to make MLB this next year. As a matter of fact I do not remember reading about them in TD minor league stories.
 
Travis Blankenhorn, who is listed as a prospect for reasons I do not know, is 2B in Fort Myers where he played 124 games and batted 231! And he was backed up by Alex Perez who hit 208. Not going here.
 
If we go down to Cedar Rapids Michael Helman in 27 games hit 355, Jordan Gore in 63 games hit 305, and Jose Miranda in 104 games hit 277. I do not know their fielding prowess, but I suspect the answer for next year is not at this level.
 
Those are the in-house answers.
 
So I do have to look at FA options - Machado and Donaldson are the best infield options, but not at second. Elvis Andrus is a possibility for SS or 2B, Brian Dozier is the person we know best, but I do not think Brian liked how things went this year so do not expect him back. Daniel Murphy is not going to leave the Cubs! DJ LaMahieu is coming from the Rockies - do you trust their stats?
 
My prediction - Logan Forsythe is the 2019 2B, but we better do something to increase the infield fielding! Maybe this will insure Mauer is back since we need a glove at 1B no matter how the person hits and Austin, Sano, Cave, or Rooker is not going to anchor the infield with their gloves.

For years baseball played with shortstops that could cover a lot of ground and if they hit well it was a bonus - Marty Marion and Ozzie Smith made the hall like this. Mark Belanger was the glue of Earl Weaver's championship Orioles and Zoilo Versalles brought the Twins to their first World Series.
 
Now we masquerade SS with all the shifts but still we look at Lindor and Correa and other great gloves with great arms as prototype shortstops. Notice how many professional athletes began as Shortstops - that includes Sano. Because the best athlete was the SS. On a site called Dick's Pro Tips the little league teams are given this advise - "Arguably, this should be one of your best defensive players. The shortstop should show great range and the ability to field sharply hit baseballs. Choose someone who has an above-average arm, as many of their throws will be a great distance."
 
Some might argue catcher and they get a lot of points, but they do not have to move as fast and as many directions, catch hops, drives, popups, and bad hops. Nor do they turn DPs.
Think about what happens when a shortstop blows a catch, misses on a DP, or drops a pop up. We can put big oafs that hit Homeruns at 1B and even 3B, but not at SS. We can put good gloves with limited range at 2B (hate to say that since I played 2B), but at SS we want quickness, range, and arm. It is a position that demands a lot and is involved in a lot.
 
I bring that up because Polanco is really disappointing this year. I do not have a stat that tells me how much offense is needed to offset bad defense. He has now reached 50 Errors at SS, not counting other positions, in 3 years. Too many. His fielding percentage, his errors, and his defensive WAR are all near the bottom. If the Twins are going to move up in the standings, we have to move up in the quality of each position and Jorge is not cutting it right now. Do we have hope that will change?

Okay, we know Joe is on first, but we do not know if Joe wants to stay there or go home and be a dad. Actually we do not know how Mrs Joe feels about this. Joe is the perfect compliment to our existing infield, not because he hits well, he and Robbie Grossman are the walk guys if you like that for your batters. But right now it is Joe's glove that is saving this rather mediocre group of fielders.
 
First base is a nice place for Austin or Sano or Grossman, but we do not have the greatest fielders and they can use the security of a really good fielding first baseman. Ask the pitchers what they think.
 
So Joe can play the I am not sure card and the FO can say we traded for Austin and Cave and have Sano and others ready for 1B and all can provide the tradition 1B power. Have fun with the negotiations - Joe is not coming back cheap.
 
So who wins? Fielding and nostalgia or power and youth? I am not sure. This is the list of possible 1B for 2019 - how would you arrange them?
Joe Mauer
Tyler Austin
Miguel Sano
Robbie Grossman
Jake Cave
Brent Rooker

Or do you sign a FA and set back all the young guys? The infield is not as strong as the outfield, the answers are much more complicated - defense versus batting.

Who's on second does not have the ring of who's on first, but it is a legitimate question. After my last two blogs puzzling over SS and 3B where we are below league average in fielding, we need some strength up the middle. I will not speculate on Dozier and his half year greatness routine because I do not see him coming back. I hesitate to speculate about Escobar which is a big fan favorite for every infield position, but he has now seen the bigger world and knows he can make some choices.
 
So there is Logan Forsythe. He has had 2700 ABs and has a lifetime average of 249 and a total WAR of 12.9 so he is not a terrible choice. He will not have the HR power of Dozier, but he should not have the 1/2 year splits that Dozier did either. His defensive WAR accumulated over 8 seasons is 12.9 - not spectacular, more league average. In fact, if you look closer, he accumulated just under 1/2 of that WAR in one really good year - 2015. If SS and 3B were great we could tolerate league average, but with league average being the highest of the three positions I am not sure that we can look at this as a championship infield.
 
Of course Polanco could slide to 2B or 3B and then we have to figure out SS, but I am not looking at signing or trading players in this essay. I want to see what is in the cupboard. Adrianza is our backup for all three positions. This year, according to Baseball Reference Adrianza has a -0.3 WAR for 2018. Good utility, but too much exposure is not good.
 
Who is in the minors - Petit is our fall infield call up. Gregorio is 33 years old and has a 0.1 WAR over parts of six years. I do not nominate him for second base full time. For the Rochester Redwings we had Alex Perez play 14 games and bat 244 and Taylor Featherstone played 55 and batted 167. I do not believe either of them is going to make MLB this next year. As a matter of fact I do not remember reading about them in TD minor league stories.
 
Travis Blankenhorn, who is listed as a prospect for reasons I do not know, is 2B in Fort Myers where he played 124 games and batted 231! And he was backed up by Alex Perez who hit 208. Not going here.
 
If we go down to Cedar Rapids Michael Helman in 27 games hit 355, Jordan Gore in 63 games hit 305, and Jose Miranda in 104 games hit 277. I do not know their fielding prowess, but I suspect the answer for next year is not at this level.
 
Those are the in-house answers.
 
So I do have to look at FA options - Machado and Donaldson are the best infield options, but not at second. Elvis Andrus is a possibility for SS or 2B, Brian Dozier is the person we know best, but I do not think Brian liked how things went this year so do not expect him back. Daniel Murphy is not going to leave the Cubs! DJ LaMahieu is coming from the Rockies - do you trust their stats?
 
My prediction - Logan Forsythe is the 2019 2B, but we better do something to increase the infield fielding! Maybe this will insure Mauer is back since we need a glove at 1B no matter how the person hits and Austin, Sano, Cave, or Rooker is not going to anchor the infield with their gloves.

A few days okay I wrote about Polanco and SS and I found him wanting as a defensive and future SS for a championship team, but what about 3B? Are we set with Sano? In this article https://calltothepen.com/2013/02/07/bold-prospect-comparisons-miguel-sano/ written five years ago Sano was the third best prospect in the majors, "Sano potential has a 70-grade power tool and 70-grade arm strength. Meaning he will be expected to hit 35 or more bombs a year and have one of the stronger arms in the league. His hit tool should be about major league average, maybe slightly below average. That is a .250-.270 hitter. His fielding is below average and so is his speed.He may swipe double digits in his early years but it isn’t considered a part of his overall game."
 
Well that might be overly optimistic. However, along with Byron Buxton, he was the cornerstone for the future. This year Sano has a -0.4 WAR, he is batting 202, has a long stint in the minors to make corrections and is back as a fixture at 3B. And his comps, according to Baseball Reference are pretty bleak in my assessment:
Michael Conforto (960.5)
Randal Grichuk (959.3)
Adam Duvall (959.2)
Chris Duncan (957.3)
Eric Thames (947.2)
Domingo Santana (944.1)
Bud Souchock (943.5)
Travis Shaw (942.4)
Dusty Rhodes (939.5)
Chuck Essegian (939.4)
 
In 182 MLB games he is batting 245, but this year he is batting 202. Last year he had 3.1 offensive WAR and this year he is 0.1 Offensive WAR and -0.5 Defensive WAR.
We knew that he would not be Brooks Robinson or Pie Traynor or any great 3B, but his hitting would make up for it. It has not. In Fantasy sports - CBS https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/rankings/h2h/3B/ he is not in the top 40. I am sure that must be wrong. On ESPN he currently ranks 49th at 3B. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/rankings/h2h/3B/
 
I went to many of the rankings and he does not rank except in the mind of the Twins fans. So what's up. Is he the future star or a bust? Is the another Mark Reynolds, or Kingman? Or is he someone we can build around. Combine Buxton and Sano and we have lousy BA, good HRs, Excellent fielding (last two categories apply to only one).
 
When I looked at Polanco I asked if a team that looks at a future championship can put Polanco as there every day SS. I have to ask the same for Sano. But who can replace him? I know some will expect to resign Escobar - I don't. But among prospects who is it? Blankenship? Move Polanco to 3B?
 
I have this desire to have a World Series again and that means I want better than average at every position. Right now 3B is my second question mark.

For years baseball played with shortstops that could cover a lot of ground and if they hit well it was a bonus - Marty Marion and Ozzie Smith made the hall like this. Mark Belanger was the glue of Earl Weaver's championship Orioles and Zoilo Versalles brought the Twins to their first World Series.
 
Now we masquerade SS with all the shifts but still we look at Lindor and Correa and other great gloves with great arms as prototype shortstops. Notice how many professional athletes began as Shortstops - that includes Sano. Because the best athlete was the SS. On a site called Dick's Pro Tips the little league teams are given this advise - "Arguably, this should be one of your best defensive players. The shortstop should show great range and the ability to field sharply hit baseballs. Choose someone who has an above-average arm, as many of their throws will be a great distance."
 
Some might argue catcher and they get a lot of points, but they do not have to move as fast and as many directions, catch hops, drives, popups, and bad hops. Nor do they turn DPs.
Think about what happens when a shortstop blows a catch, misses on a DP, or drops a pop up. We can put big oafs that hit Homeruns at 1B and even 3B, but not at SS. We can put good gloves with limited range at 2B (hate to say that since I played 2B), but at SS we want quickness, range, and arm. It is a position that demands a lot and is involved in a lot.
 
I bring that up because Polanco is really disappointing this year. I do not have a stat that tells me how much offense is needed to offset bad defense. He has now reached 50 Errors at SS, not counting other positions, in 3 years. Too many. His fielding percentage, his errors, and his defensive WAR are all near the bottom. If the Twins are going to move up in the standings, we have to move up in the quality of each position and Jorge is not cutting it right now. Do we have hope that will change?

The Minnesota Twins front office is sure making a habit of blundering important decisions here in September. With respect to Byron Buxton, and the late season promotions, there's plenty of head-scratching and hand-wringing to be observed. At this current juncture, it's maybe worth speculating if everyone isn't on the same page?
Over the course of the 2018 major league season, I have found myself as a supporter of the new front office. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had an exceptional offseason, and they positioned this Twins club for success in the current season. As everything has gone up in flames however, their responses have seemed less than satisfactory. Now as real adversity creeps in, we may be seeing some cracks in the armor as well.
 
Obviously the biggest misstep thus far has been the handling of Byron Buxton. This isn't the space to rehash that situation, but I believe I did a good job of explaining the situation here. Looking back at it however, something has stuck out to me, and that's the quote from Thad Levine to Mike Berardino. Minnesota's GM said, “Their recourse has not been laid out to us. They’re certainly entitled to whatever they think is in the best interest of Byron Buxton. From this day forward, I think we recognize a responsibility to make amends and that we’re going to need to invest in the relationship with Byron Buxton. We understand this is a blow to the player, a potential blow to the relationship."
 
In analyzing that quote, it's hard not to wonder why the Twins GM is being so open and candid about the situation as a whole. He talked about service time implications to the media as well, and the suggestion that this team decision could be potentially damaging to a long term relationship speaks volumes. As the only member of the front office to speak on the decision thus far, it's hard not to speculate as to whether Thad is simply acting as the orator here, and there's some dissension in the room.
 
Derek Falvey is 35 years-old and holds the title of Chief Baseball Officer for the Minnesota Twins. His top rank previously was the title of Assistant General Manager for the Cleveland Indians. While he's obviously skilled and qualified for the role in which he's been enlisted, there's also an equally capable and qualified network of support around him. When making such delicate decisions, it's more than fair to wonder whether or not his peers all jump onto the same page.
 
When it comes to head-scratching options, Minnesota embarked on another when they revealed their full list of September call-ups. On top of the egregious missing name in Buxton, neither Nick Anderson or Jake Reed saw their names included among the group either. The Twins are currently 63-74, 14.0 games out of the AL Central, and have nothing left to play for in 2018. With those parameters, September immediately becomes a breeding ground for acclimation and assimilation with talent that could prove useful on the 2019 Opening Day roster. Except the Twins chose to forego that route.
 
It's great that John Curtiss, Chase De Jong and Tyler Duffey found themselves recalled, but so too did Chris Gimenez, Gregorio Petit, and Johnny Field. The latter three players represent veteran retreads that have no real value on a big league bench. Given the current state of the team in Minnesota, Mitch Garver or Jake Cave losing at bats to that duo seems counter productive. On top of that, the Twins left a stocked cupboard and closed the door. There's two spots still open on the 40 man roster, and of the 40 spots available on the active roster in September, only used 34 of them.
 
Anderson, a Minnesota native, turned in a 3.30 ERA, 13.2 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9 across 60.0 IP for Triple-A Rochester this season. Jake Reed posted a 1.89 ERA and 9.4 K/9 in 47.2 IP, and owned an even better 1.16 ERA in his last 31.0 IP. After signing multiple relief arms to short term deals this winter, squeezing out all the available talent within the organization seems like a smart blueprint. Given that neither now have an opportunity at the major league level in September, their afforded sample size will be a minimal one during big league camp (assuming they are invited, and still around).
 
Without being behind closed doors, it's impossible to know what Derek Falvey's impact on each decision is. It's also unfair to assume how he is viewed by his peers. What is absolutely certain though, is that there's a danger to always believing you're the smartest person in any given room. If the operating tactics are less collaborative than the amount the term has been used by the head honcho, it's hard to see how lackluster buy in is a positive.
 
Maybe Levine's comments surrounding Buxton are nothing more than they appear on the surface. Maybe no one in the front office saw the idea to waste the opportunity September roster expansion provides as a bad thing. Maybe everyone truly is on the same page. If that's the case though, we might be in even more trouble than it seems.
 
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