mikelink45

I was curious where we stand as a team - right now. Since the fast and furious signings seem to be in a lull (facetious statement). Let's put the team on the field as they are now composed and see how they stack up using their 2018 WAR and the Total Zone Fielding Runs above average and the 2019 projection - all from Baseball Reference WAR RTOT Projection Polanco SS 1.5 , -2 270/329/415 Rosario LF 3.6 -10 278/319/464 Cron 1B 2 4 253/316/455 Sano 3B -0.5 -2 239/322/452 Austin DH 0.5 236/301/446 Cave CF 1.5 -2 259/317/455 Kepler RF 2.8 16 235/317/419 Schoop 2B 1.4 1 259/302/448 Castro C 2.5 3 222/309/370 using 2017 numbers Adrianza U 0.4 -3 249/307/385 Buxton CF -0.3 3 237/297.393 Garver C 0.9 -16 254/325/407 Torreyes U 0.3 - 2 270/312/384 What do you think? 16.6 WAR total. RTOT - 16. Can we hit, can we field? I will look at the pitchers a little later. I just need to digest what these totals tell us. Our does this all hinge on Sano and Buxton like I talked about in - https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11292-%7B%3F%7D/ Do we need more or do we look forward to another year with the moves that are made? https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11289-%7B%3F%7D/

Romero in the rotation is my wish. Do not waste a dynamic arm like his by relegating him to the bullpen. I am still a believer in starters.

If all these players taken were considered better than what we had, should we have taken one? Should we resign these players or just let them be free agents and hope they find a home?

It says a lot about the real value of the Twins assets.

Okay, we know we are not in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. Be glad. Only Boras can sell him as the $400 million dollar man. If we look closely we know better. What were his stats this year? 1.3 WAR. 248, 34, 100. Yes he had a +133 OPS. Is that worth $40 million a year? He has had 7 years and an accumulated 27.4 WAR - 3.9 per year. What is that worth? Lets me realistic here. The following article says that in this inflated era a player gets $3.8 million per war - that means that for 2018 Harper was worth about $5 Million. If we take his average over his career it means just under $15million. Will he sign for that? Of course not. Boras has the league buffaloed so he will get twice or more for that. https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/7vwjmy/realistic_war_how_much_should_players_actually/ He will argue that these are his prime years coming up and that is true. However, how long is his prime? Most estimates make 32 the maximum. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/ Then what? Look at Pujols. He might be DFA'd now that the Angels have gotten a first baseman and DH. Or Tulowitzki who has been DFA'd with two big years left on his contract. Of course we can always look at the impact that the player has on winning. Harper has been with the Nationals seven years. They have been first 4 times and second 3 times. Of course they also have Scherzer the best pitcher in the NL (I know some like Kershaw) and Strasburg and Rodon and Werth and Turner... Yet they have never made the WS. They lost in the LDS four times 3 - 2. Mr Harper never took them over the top. A team is a team, not a star and bit players. Those who chase Harper or the guy who does not want to play all out, but will play dirty can expend the big bucks, but the Twins have much more affordable options in the next tier. Of course that assumes the Twins want to win and want to spend.

When I read your title - I read in Broomstick instead of Boomstick - so I can in reading this with a different mindset. Good essay. I find myself somewhat indifferent over Cruz and yet if he comes the broomstick will be needed at some point to move out the competing bats and players who clog the lineup and roster without getting us to the championship. When I read Cron, Cruz, Sano behind Polanco I think of the hot summer and all those whiffs creating a cool breeze for the fans in the stands.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25512874/minnesota-twins-outfielder-byron-buxton-admits-was-angry-not-getting-called-up This article is interesting in light of my recent Blog about Buxton and Sano and how long do we wait for them. Today I listened to Gleeman and the Geek and once again I hear that we are waiting on this potentially dynamic duo. But if so what is the thinking of the Front Office. Read this report and it is obvious that we did a lot of damage by not letting Buxton play in September. Why? What did the team gain by this? What was the message that they wanted to send? In the Athletic - 12//13 - comes the following quote - "But Baldelli hopes to go further than a phone call with Buxton and Sanó soon. He said he tentatively would like to visit each, including a trip to the Dominican Republic to Sanó’s home, before the end of the year, with the knowledge that plans can always change." Why wasn't there a meeting when Buxton was in Minnesota? The Athletic article said, "Buxton spoke out at a charity event in Minneapolis on Tuesday for the first time since the Twins didn’t promote him in September, a move that surprised players in the clubhouse and leaves Buxton just shy of three years of service time. Had he eclipsed three years of playing time during the past season, Buxton would have remained on target for free agency after 2021 as a 28-year-old. Instead, Buxton — who is arbitration-eligible this offseason after reaching Super Two status — won’t hit free agency until he’s 29, which potentially could cost him significant dollars. Buxton spoke to reporters from the Pioneer Press and Star Tribune. “Pissed? Yes,” Buxton said. “I ain’t sugar-coating nothing, simple as that.” “It’s business, they did what they did, I do what I do. At the end of the day, I’m still going to keep playing hard, still want to play in Minnesota, still want to play beside my teammates. That’s all that matters.” Did Buxton have to say that to get their attention. The day after was when Baldelli said he was going to visit Buxton and Sano in person.

I like the first 5, the remainder can mix and match with other prospects - at least I hope there are other prospects that can push forward.

Nice speculation. None of us can figure out the FO strategy so speculation is all we have. I thought Austin should have been played as much as possible after we got him and I am sorry to think he has already been overlooked in future plans. It is a story line we will all be following, but I wonder how Austin feels.

I am not content to have another below average year at 3B and SS, plus a poor defender at first. I love defense. Others have posted that Petit is our back up and that Schoop would move over. Isn't there a minor league 3B somewhere that is near ready and could be obtained? This is MLB, the FO has to deal with difficult challenges. And we have to have a good infield defense if we are going to have productive pitching. The reason everyone wants Buxton in the lineup is his defense. What good is CF defense if the infield can't function well?

No. We already have a SS that can't play SS, we do not need another one, especially one who has suffered so many injuries that his prime is in the rear-view mirror.

I loved it. This off season is boring and discouraging so far. Big deal - we got Schoop - does he increase our wins by 1 or 2 next year? So are we trying to win? No we are waiting for Buxton and Sano - try taking on how long they should wait and what they need to see in some segment. But more important thanks for not deleting your debate - argument. I loved it. I was waiting for Aaron to walk off. The frustration was really fun because frustration is so basic to being a Twins fan.

If Sano cannot play 3B - injuries, etc. his options are 1B or DH. Right now there is Austin, Cron, Cave (if not starting), Garver (if not starting or wiped out by concussion), and Sano if not at 3B. I am not against Cruz, but what are the plans for all these contingencies?

Somehow, celebrating second place in an historically bad division does not seem exciting or satisfying.

Give me some back up at 3B that can start when Sano gets injured or cannot find the ball with his bat. Let the pitchers work things out, but the starting lineup needs to be 9 decent or better players and not seven players and two sets of crossed fingers.

I do not disagree with you - see my response to the other posting on this blog. Jake Cave gives us a third OF so we are in better shape there, but we are in terrible shape if Sano does not step up. We have no decent 3B in the minors and there are not a lot of options for filler like the scrap heap OFs that they kept grabbing during the season. 3B is essential and hard to fill. We can talk about swinging Polanco over there, but he is at SS because we do not have a good option for him there. His bat would play okay at 3B. But Adrianza and Torreyes are not fit to be starters. I really want a contending team. When the real first rung teams have a hole they fill it and if they have too many good players they deal them, or deal with the consequences. We have been playing with two hands tied behind our collective backs for two years. Something has to happen and I would love it if these players came out and starred this year.

I do not want to give up on them, nor do I want to give up on two seasons of my teams potential. Yes there are better players at all positions, but the players we had at those other positions played and contributed - Buxton and Sano did not. I would have rather put them on extended injury reserve and make some moves that kept the team playing well. As we watched, Sano went to A ball and came back and did very little, Buxton went down and we did not even let him play in MLB in September. I want a better set of options. It would seem that DH and 1B are the ultimate places for Sano according to all I read, so get a 3B and start that movement. Right now we have no 3B replacement at any level worth considering. So what happens if Sano can't play again, just does not make it, gets injured? Shouldn't there be something in place? With Buxton I guess Jake Cave is the designated filler so we are in better shape there. I would have liked to have gotten Billy Hamilton so we had speed and defense in CF or off the bench.

I appreciate your optimism and I hope you are right about the behind the scenes improvement, but I am not really able to see that. Maybe I will. At the same time, it is owed to the fans to have a better product on the field while building for the future.

My annual waiting for Buxton and Sano patience is wearing very thing. It reminds me of waiting for Godot! No, he is not a baseball player, Spark Notes tell us - "Two men, Vladimir and Estragon, meet near a tree. They converse on various topics and reveal that they are waiting there for a man named Godot." "a boy enters and tells Vladimir that he is a messenger from Godot. He tells Vladimir that Godot will not be coming tonight," "The next night, Vladimir and Estragon again meet near the tree to wait for Godot." "the boy enters and once again tells Vladimir that Godot will not be coming." https://www.sparknotes.com/lit/godot/summary/ Nothing ever happens because the two men just keep waiting. I think it is wonderful that we all have such patience with Buxton and Sano and that we can keep recycling our just wait columns, but in the mean time life happens, seasons come and go, and fans die, move away, or go and watch the Lynx and United. These are two men on a 25 man active roster, a 40 man potential roster. We have a FO that is supposed to deal with contingencies. We are not supposed to shut down the team for two players. Lots of teams have injuries that take their best players and they make moves. So we fill 3B and CF with really good players and suddenly Sano and Buxton look like superstars that we have all imagined. Great. Trade someone and continue to make the team better. Don't write off season after season. I posted in a comment section the following which is what I have seen from the FO (I have not included the manager and coaches changes because in the long run they do not matter - we need players): Here are the players that they have signed or traded for in 2017 and 2018, there are 54 and I skipped a few from 2017.So this is more than a 40 man roster - how much have these moves pushed us forward?What is the strategy of the FO? Lynn, Reed, Castro, Rodney, Morrison, Schoop, Torreyes, Adrianza, Cron, Austin, Cave, Odorizzi, Pineda, Haley, Paulsen, Field, Rucinski,Hague, Schuck, Tepesch, Vogelsong, Greenwood, Miller, Tracy, Giminez, Belisle, Breslow, Kinley, Duke, Pacheco, Buss, Curtis, Magill, Wilkins, Heisey, Sanchez, Rodriguez, Carter, Villalobos, Motter, Rupp, LaMarre, Raley, Smeltzer, Forsythe, Duran, Alcala, Celestino, Maciel, Trinidad, Costello, DeJong, Rijo, Drake,Adams, So Falvey and Lavine sat on a bench and said "We are waiting for Sano and Buxton." Twins Daily came out and said shouldn't we improve the rest of the roster? Falvey and Lavine sat on a bench and said "We are waiting for Sano and Buxton!

This is not an answer to the posting asking for a three year plan from one of us. Give me the money and resources of Lavine and Falvey and I will come up with a plan. All I can say is waiting for Buxton and Sano year after year after year is getting quite old. I am waiting for Lavine and Falvey and every year I am told they have a plan. What is their plan? Here are the players that they have signed or traded for in 2017 and 2018, there are 54 and I skipped a few from 2017. So this is more than a 40 man roster - how much have these moves pushed us forward? What is the strategy of the FO? Lynn, Reed, Castro, Rodney, Morrison, Schoop, Torreyes, Adrianza, Cron, Austin, Cave, Odorizzi, Pineda, Haley, Paulsen, Field, Rucinski,Hague, Schuck, Tepesch, Vogelsong, Greenwood, Miller, Tracy, Giminez, Belisle, Breslow, Kinley, Duke, Pacheco, Buss, Curtis, Magill, Wilkins, Heisey, Sanchez, Rodriguez, Carter, Villalobos, Motter, Rupp, LaMarre, Raley, Smeltzer, Forsythe, Duran, Alcala, Celestino, Maciel, Trinidad, Costello, DeJong, Rijo, Drake,Adams,

Okay we signed Schoop after a disasterous year where he had 85 OPS+ 15% below replacement. But better than Forsythe who was 65. Schoop's fielding rating does not give us much to get excited about. So, yes we filled the position, and we hope he comes back strong, but if we do he is a free agent after this year. Hard to really get excited or give a grade to this transaction

Schoop had an OPS+ of 85! His total fielding runs above average is +1. Last year he was a replacement level player at best. His 21 HRs is the only stat that stands out. Unless Arreaz is a shocker or Torreyes and Adrianza shock the world, Schoop is our 2B. Until I see the turn around I cannot envision him helping us go anywhere in the division. His biggest contribution at this point is giving us a live body at 2B. Baseball Reference projects him to have a 750 OPS. If he does we are better, but not dramatically. It was a good signing compared to what we have, but whether it was the best choice we had for 2B is yet to be judged. But one thing for sure, he is better than Logan Forsythe who has a career OPS+ of 95 - not just one bad year - and last year he was 65 OPS+.

Just not sure where Kohl fits, if he does. September is a fun month to experiment, but it is not an experiment that carries a lot of weight.

I am sorry to read about this speculation. If Garver is not able to catch he is really not valuable to the Twins future. A very sad thought.

Here we are December 6, 2018. We are almost a week after my birthday and what a week. I waited 73 years for all this to happen. We fired Molitor - he mishandled the bullpen which had all of three good relievers and we needed 4 per game. We let go the pitching coach even though Gibson and others out performed the past. We kept the hitting coaches even though our superstar, can't miss projects continued to flail at the plate. We fired Pickler the guy the front office said would provide new age stat information to the manager. We kept the bench coach who obviously shoulders no blame for the season that got Molitor fired. Then we lost Johnny Field to the cubs and Oliver Drake to the Rays even though they were good enough to prevent minor leaguers from auditioning in September. Great move. We showed other teams how good the players we did not want were. Then to show that we cared about pitching we signed Erasmo Moreno and Preston Guilmet to be our new right hander pitchers. Some real action to get November warming up. Randy Cesar was signed to give 3B depth, Zack Weiss signed to give even more right handed depth, and LaMonte Wade was put on the 40 man even though he was not good enough to come up in September. And Nick Gordon was added to the same 40 man even though he too was not good enough for September - glad we kept Field and Oliver on that roster. We traded Nick Anderson to the Rays and got another 3B Brian Schales, to push Sano. He must be worried that is two 3B players in one month. Having a strong BP we released Alan Busenitz. Then we added Luis Arreaz to the 40 man because we did not know Schoop would be there for the next season and we signed C J Cron and released Robbie Grossman making a completing unremarkable change in our batting talent. Then December came and we though that Ronald Torreyes should challenge Ehire - thereby pushing our talent level on more notch towards the championships we dream of. Is anyone else excited?