mikelink45

Hamilton reminds me of Buxton. Lots of speed in CF, but no bat. At least Hamilton stole bases. Could this be a wake-up for Byron? I hope the new coaches get to him before he becomes a future non-tender.

Speaking of expectations - I always wonder about coaches and what they do and how they contribute. I seldom know who they really are and what their job descriptions are, but this interview with Wes Johnson - our new pitching coach - who I also never heard of was really enlightening. I mentioned in an earlier posting that the thought of bringing on someone who actually teaches might be better than just having another old vet (of course I teach college so I am a believer) but this article from the Athletic really filled me in on Johnson. https://theathletic.com/683157/2018/11/29/wes-johnson-minnesota-twins-pitching-coach-google-hangout-interview-daughters-bedroom/?source=dailyemail

I understand, but I would trade potential before being stuck with obvious and expensive regression in Cano.

Let us suppose that the rest of the league sees the same potential that we do in Sano and Buxton - forget their current output - teams are trading for prospects and the future. So what would we get in a trade? I know this will be unpopular, but if this is about creativity all options should be on the table for discussion purposes. Would I extend Gibson - no. A really nice turn around season at his age is great, but how will he age? Will he continue to improve or will he regress. He is another trade asset in my mind. In fact, if Pineda looks healthy, trade him too. Keep moving the dial. Don't wait for the Indians to regress or the White Sox to progress, we do not win by letting other teams slip behind us as we stay the same. The Athletic had a good essay looking at pitcher expectations from the beginning of year compared to end of the season rankings and in interesting pitch guys it looks at Kyle Gibson and Odorizzi. https://theathletic.com/683759/2018/11/30/sarris-learning-from-a-look-back-at-my-preseason-pitching-rankings/?source=dailyemail The key statement in the Gibson section is "He went from a predictable pitcher to one who is likely to throw any of five pitches in any count. No one pitch he throws is dominant, but all together, he’s a usable veteran." And for Odorizzi - "Jake Odorizzi has never found the breaking ball he’s looking for. His issues with command, homers and the third time through the order were not likely to go away without change."

I would take the reliever- but not the Cano baggage.

If we are really on the path to the WS, it is still 2 years away (probably 3 or 4) and where would Cano be at that time - ask the Angels about big contracts for once great players. This is a NO all the way, but thanks for asking.

Bear with me now - I am about to go off the baseball rails here. I read all the speculation, all the projections of player salaries and all the moaning from our team and fans and the rest of the teams and their fans so I am going to say something no one wants to hear. We do not need an Ace, we do not need a superstar! There it has been said. The follow up to that is - and I want us to win the series! Okay, now for my reasons. Lets start with the easiest - the Ace. The Ace in the 1800s pitched much more than any current pitcher. Old Hoss Radbourne won more games - 59 than any pitcher starts in a season. He was the triple crown of pitching leader - 1.38 earned run average, 59 wins and 441 strikeouts. I know we are all about strikeouts now - look at that total. And he pitched 12 years! Okay that was an Ace that made a real difference. Then we got to the 30 win era where this was the standard that really set out the ACE - Denny McClain in 1968 was the last to win 30. There were 21 thirty game win seasons with most in the early 1900s. And they still had arms on their bodies the next year. These thirteen pitchers were also Aces of course Denny took to Aces in the gambling dens and ruined his career. Then came the twenty game winners - with Warren Spahn winning 20 - 13 different years during his career - despite losing years to serving in the war. His last 20 game year came in my high school graduation year - 1963. He and the other 20 game regulars were Aces. On this list of twenty game winners is Nolan Ryan - yes he also lost a lot, but he was the real leader into the strikeout era and he also was a complete game pitcher. Then we went to five man rotations and now to openers (the shame) and the argument that wins don't matter. The above pitchers also completed games - Cy Young completed 749 games - yes he won and lost games. And he earned his wins just like the other Aces above. Now, the Ace not only pitches one of five games, but only 6 - 7 innings in most outings. I see Kershaw get $35m a year and think - why? He cannot even move them forward in the off season and his speed is diminishing. Sign two number twos and three number threes and we will be better off than signing a one, running out of money and ending up with most games being toss ups or worse. Of course you can also make that a different combinations of 2s,3s,and 4s, but don't break the bank on the ACE. Then there is the Bryce Harper/Manny Machado madness. Who in the world is worth the kind of money they are talking about. Living in MN I have heard for years about how the Mauer contract impacted the team ability to sign other players (I know it was an excuse, a joke, not real), but 300 - 400m is not a joke. Look at Mike Trout - the greatest player of our current era. By himself he cannot lead them to a championship season. Nor has Machado or Harper shown that they can either. Each player is up to bat 3 - 5 times a game - that is all and if no one is on base they cannot drive them in. If they swing for the fences and have a crap average like Harper or Sano or Morrison did last year you get 30 HRs - which if they are spread out give you 30 games of production and 132 of small or no production. In the field only the catcher and first baseman are involved in the majority of fielding plays, so even in the field there is limited production most of the time. Since WAR is such a popular figure think about the numbers the best players puts up. No one is worth 80 or 90 WAR, the great ones are 10 and there are few is any each season. This individual game is still a team game and if the team does not pitch, field, hit, the team does not win and wins are what we want. Look at the Angels other player - HOF to be - Pujols. Tell me his worth to the team, tell me how that contract impacts the team. No - sign a lot of good players, good fielders, good on base average, good production people, steal some bases, be fast and be involved. It is the team with production 1 - 9, rotation 1 - 5, even slightly above average at all positions that wins. Not the team with the biggest star.

I agree with you. My intention was to say that, of course we want to surpass Cleveland, but that is not enough. That is not a goal, it is just what must be done to reach the heights we need.

My issue is that we are looking at the wrong team if we are trying to compete with Cleveland. I know it it the FO old home, but the fact is they were just good enough to get in and get beat and overall they are what the Twins once were, first round punching bags. The Twins need to forget them and go after the teams that will really make a run at the prize, unless we are just ready to be a Minnesota Nice team.

This was a fun essay - I loved it and I disagree with it. The pitcher recommendations are the opposite of what I would have. Talk about break downs - May has a career of break downs, but he has great talent - that sounds like a relief pitcher. Romero is the guy that can take us into the back part of the game - he has the ability and the stuff and I love starters. Astudillo is a really fun story, but there is a prejudice against pudgy guys. They will not do it and I am as sorry as anyone. I love his energy.

The articles I read continue to have me question the real value of Free Agency. This lottery with players at the end of their career, coming off a down year, declining in production, unhappy, taking up too much money or space. Free Agency is such an attractive time for fans and probably for FO dreamers as well, but the real value is seldom in the big stars. How many pennants have the Nationals won with Harper or the Angels with Trout. The key is to build a total roster and going huge for a single star and then backfilling is not a good formula. Signing one year players that you hope will do well, but will leave if they do does not build a winning culture either. I know I am glad I do not have to make these decisions, but if I did Harper and Machado would not like my offers.

Slugging and striking out are still the big headlines for Cron. I am fine with a cheap and expendable signing, but we have Rooker in the wings who can do both of those things. I would like to see us start looking at the OPP hitters, more hits, more walks, better average, more speed. The launch angle is already getting old. But we can get by with the Cron/Austin/Sano/Grossman/Rooker/Cave/Kepler 1B list for now if we address the rest of the infield. Whether it was Mauer or Keith Hernandez at first, infields were not judged as quality by the glove of the first baseman. We need the rest of the infield to measure up with some new additions. Missing out on Donaldson was a big disappointment for me. Were we ever in the conversation? All I can say is thanks for giving us something to discuss and perhaps obsess over in the dark days of November.

I believe that the Rays won 90 games last year. How many did the Twins win?

I am one of the negatives. Sorry, I know you would like someone to agree with you, but I consider Hanley to be a career disappointment. He had 0.2 WAR on a Red Sox team! He has 38 WAR in 14 years and in the last four it has been (-1.3), 2.8, (-0.3) and 0.2. Lets move forward, his value days are long gone and he is not a good cyber Monday deal. In 14 years his total wins above average is 16. Not a star. His totatl defensive WAR is a negative so no value there. Why would we want him?

If we had the old bench - he would be there as a pinch hitter, but today he needs to be a RP. I am sorry about that because he contributed much more than he is given credit for.

I like your statement that you do not know enough to know that Molitor overused his staff. I do not know either. But I know that it is too easy to blame Molitor and to forget that the FO could have stopped any abuse. The other coaches including the bench coach we retained could have stopped abuse. It is time to look to solutions and get off the Molitor blame train.

Thank you for the honest assessment. Molitor used what he had like every other manager.

What other arms was he supposed to use. I am beginning to think I need to change my name to Molitor defender, but I feel that the constant harping on Molitor needs to stop. The FO gave him his BP pitchers and if they burned out it was because they were supposed to be openers and closers. We keep asking more of the BP, but their arms are used up by the end of the season. Not pitch count, but number of appearances. MLB has not figured out how to work with its new paradigm.

I think this is just the beginning of the relief pitcher era woes. Use them and use them and somehow they are supposed to hold up longer and better that SP. We are going to see more high priced RP signings be bust and there were a few last years beyond Reed.

Poor Molitor - every pitching ailment is his fault. Sorry. He used what he had and he did not have much to work with.

How can I comment intelligently. I know what I hope, I do not know what I expect. Obviously Austin did not impress enough to grab the position. But Cron has a one year resume so who knows. Both are cheap in baseball numbers so let them fight it out. We know one will be 1B. Now lets concentrate on the really big needs - SS! CF! SP! AND RP!. I am waiting.

I really thought a lot about that - still do not understand the Rays cutting him. I really think this is a good move. Now they still have the money to invest in other needs. Thanks for pointing it out.

I guess Molitor did a good job with him! I agree he is an excellent success story. I had hoped that Hildenberger would be right with him. But Molitor must not have done so well with him. The BP requires 4 very good and 4 okay arms to function.

Nicely done, I always appreciate your thoughtful postings. I do not want to give up on the Twins. I follow them every day of the season and off season, but I do not want to be caught up in the hype until I see something really working.

Nicely done. So much to work with here. Where is our hope?