mikelink45

Nice recap. Moya, Garver, Vasquez, and Romero look like good pieces going forward. Gonsalves, Littel and Stewart I hope will progress, but their debuts were too up and down to have confidence for 2019. Astudillo may be that short term legend - there have been many - Bob Hazle with the old Milwaukee Braves, Dusty Rhodes with the Giants, Mark Fidrych with the Tigers, Kevin Maas a yankee, Joe Charboneau with the Indians, and Wayne Garland in the Orioles rotation are all examples. Fun while it lasted and it did not last long. Astudillo reminds me of the Fidrych legend - color, laughs and production. But I also worry that the Twins might see this as something that filled the end of the season, but nothing more. I hope I am wrong, but I have might doubts that he will continue in MLB. Too bad, we have had pudgy guys who did well before, including one Kirby Puckett.

Once again you have provided a fun and provocative list. Sano should be top five, his place on this list is a frustration listing. Garver seems to high - it depends upon concussion. If he is well I rank him above Castro, if not I put him off the list. The biggest surprise is Gonsalves. We want him to succeed, but last year was not very positive from a big league standpoint. I think he lost a lot with his debut. I wish I could go back and read all the essays about May. He has been the man of promise for so long. It would be great to see him have the year everyone anticipates.

I am still a believer in starters and his debut showed what he can do. It was a better audition that Berrios had his first year. Put Mejia in the pen and start Romero.

Since I have to assume that all the players on the teams roster are included in this listing I would join those who say Javier does not belong. He is not a potential call up, he is not even ready for 2020. Since this is a 20 person list and we have a 25 man active roster that means we are tossing some of the players to the side. Lewis and Kiriloff have to make the list because trading them would gain better assets than any of the players already on your list. Gordon is someone we hope for, but is he at the stage to be number 20? Not unless he is ready to push for a starting role. There are 15 spots left - that is the rest of the starting rotation - including Cruz (if we assume Cave over Buxton we have two of the starters in this group of five. So we have 7 players left in the starting lineup. With 8 more places Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson are there and I have already listed Kiriloff and Lewis so there are three - Reed, Rogers are in the BP so there is one more pitcher to fit into the list. So who is left off? Castro or Garver, Hildenberger, Graterol? Oh then there is the guy who Cave would be competing with - Buxton. I like the exercise and the arguments you are sure to set off!

This is a good end of the year surprise. I do not know how much he will benefit the team, but I am willing to watch and learn. Does this make the lineup: Polanco Rosario Cruz Cron Cave Sano Schoop Kepler Castro Of course if Buxton takes the starting position in CF, Cave comes out and Buxton is 9 pushing Sano/Schoop/Kepler/Castro up. I put Buxton behind Castro because Castro's lack of speed would impact Buxton. Certainly an interesting lineup. Now if they can all field! So on to the pitching staff.

Nice essay and very accurate - I am amazed by those who say wait. How long have we been waiting? Our world series appearances - 1965, 1987, 1991. We came into existence in 1961 when I ushered at the old met and we had some really fun players and a good team. After 31 years we had averaged one world series appearance every 10 years. Now we are 26 years since that wonderful experience. Since 2010's very good team we have had 7 losing seasons. 570 - 726 .439. Yes we got Cave and we got Odorizzi and we got Reed still on our team and a lot of minor leaguers to fill the rosters. How many of them are moving us to a championship or even more import to a sequence of winning years?

I really liked this. Good options, good perspectives. What is the Twins culture? I do not think anyone knows and as we try to develop one we are losing the potential for the young core now there (I know core is a strong word for what they have done) to become disenchanted. Bringing in another old vet to steady the ship is not going to work if the vet is a Giminez or Belisle type of player. And who else are they going to get?

I am bothered by the fact that we did not get good players to challenge these young position players. I am not bothered by having too much talent, but I sure do not like having too little. Our team has a lot to prove - including our new second baseman. I know we can tell about Schoops big year in Baltimore. Brady Anderson had a big year too - he hit 50 HRs in 1991 and 150 home runs over the other 14 years. Schoop had 32 in 2017 and 78 total for the other 5 years. Those career years get a lot of attention, but they are not the true player. You might add a coin for Garver too - will he be the player that he was last year or are we cursed with another concussion.

Put in a little nook that says the best of the cheaters - Steroid ERA heroes. They destroyed the meaning of stats, they gave us the forever reference to records the best outside the steroid era. I wish they had all dropped in year one like Palmeiro who accumulated HOF stats and never felt like a HOF players during his career. We used to have magic numbers - 60 and 61 - 714 and 755, but now I really do not care where anyone is on the all time list. For this insult to fans and the game I would never vote them in. I know the best hitter and the best pitcher...We have survived without Shoeless Joe and Pete Rose. In fact they are also responsible for harming the great reputation and story that the Hall presents. Yes, I feel anger towards them and it does not matter to me if Piazza or any other player has suspicion but no prove and slipped in. Bonds and Clemens are the poster boys, the symbols of that bleak time. Rivera needs to go in and I really do not care if anyone else does. Halliday is a sympathy vote and that is okay, but if he had not died would we have so much energy expended on him? Walker and others from CO suffer from this home and away splits like it is only the Rockies that have them. The Twins in 2018 had a 261/239 team split for home/away. The Yankees were 260/238 and the Red Sox were 282/255 - should all these players be judged the way that Rockies players are? No Home and away is part of the game. Judge the total stats and the complete player and stop punishing Rockies. Put Walker in.

This is where the Twins can turn the off season around. But why are we at December 23 before the interest is demonstrated. Why didn't we jump in quick and get their attention? The West Coast and New York are better known in Japan than Minnesota, but remember that Vice President Mondale has also been an ambassador to Japan. I would like to think we were really in on this player, but my instinct is the same as the others who have posted here. Interest does not match action.

For a business, the Twins seem to disregard the fans opinions and attitudes. I understand that they have to be careful about bending to the whims of the fans, but there are some things that can be done while still pursuing their long term secret plan.

Very good article. Thanks for the work in pulling this together. My only argument is the shot to Molitor. He did not get Buxton to the heights we expected, but he was also the manager when Buxton had his best year. Molitor had multiple hitting coaches, bench coach, Picker the ??, and nobody could put Humpty Buxton together again. Its time to move on from Molitor and inferences of his issues. The truth is Buxton has had bad pitch recognition and bad bat control from the moment he was called up. Fielding has only one issue - quit running into walls full speed - get under control. But the bat and swings just seem wrong. Maybe we will find out he has an issue with eyesight. I hope he gets this fixed. I hope he becomes the superstar everyone expects, But this issue is more than just last years struggles.

I know - Spring training is still a two months away and the big fish are still swimming in the Free Agent pond so news is sparse, Santa is still trying to load the sleigh with big contracts and hope for every team. In an earlier blog I wrote about the moves of the Twins and how lack luster they have been. https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11289-%7B%3F%7D/ Now we are another three weeks since I wrote that and unfortunately I could publish it again and be just as timely. No rule 5 player taken, none loss (how can we rank so high as a team when no one wants our players in rule 5 - we had a lot of them to choose from). The Winter meetings came and went. Our team got a B- from ESPN for the off season - mainly it was our hiring of coaches which is such an inexact science we have no way to know if we did well. Remember how the Vikings went for the hot Offensive Coordinator from the Super Bowl Eagles - DeFillipo? How did that go? Well we need something besides the Winter Melt Down, or rather before we melt down. The big names and the roster projection at this point will probably not change before 2019 takes over the calendar and all the analysis seems to be mediocre at best. So we turn to Mauer. When the end of the season meant nothing and some prospects wondered why they were not with the team, we did a big finish with Mauer catching again. It was great, a wonderful story for a great Twin, but it was also a distraction from what went on this season. So now that we have nothing to grab onto - Mauer comes back to rescue us again. I know it is early, and we cannot even set the date yet, but let's announce that we are going to retire Mauer's number. We all knew it would happen, when we were not sure, but 2019 needs something and sports fans are confused by the Vikings, experiencing the same Timberwolves mystique, and watching the WIld grab fifth place in its division, while the Gophers 6 - 6 play in a the Mediocre bowl game against a 7 - 5 team. I think Mauer should have his number retired, but maybe we should wait to see if he gets so lonely for the diamond that he decides to return in March. Or is this our subtle way of getting him to the HOF - like Harold Baines who had his number retired by the White Sox after they traded him and he was still an active ballplayer? Well now we know and we can add this to the Twins off season WOW factor. Congratulations Joe, this is not a criticism of you. I know many will not see this update, but here I sit on the Solstice and I see the Dodgers have moved, Puig, Wood, and Kemp and the Reds got rid of Homer Bailey. Soria joined the As, Miller signed with the Cards, Profar goes to the As, Pagan to the Rays, Daniel Murphy is with the Rockies, Sanchez is a National, Cahill is an Angel, and a few minor parts moved. It is not that I wanted all of these players to be a Twin, but the Twin news is still - Mauer's number is being retired.

I see no other number. How much had Mauer achieved by the age of Sano and Buxton? This is a discussion for a decade from now.

Kyle Gibson 3.9 WAR in 2018 projected by BR for 2019 10-11 4.24 1.39 Jake Odorizzi 1.5 WAR in 2019, projected by BR for 2019 8-8 4.18 1,28 These are not studs to build a team around, they are fillers in the back end of the rotation. Currently we have numerous young pitchers who could reach this level. If we sign vets I want them to move us towards the pennant and WS and not keep us at status quo. They are essential this year, but there are a lot of pitchers who can achieve this level. If inclined to extend I would say only one of them should be given the extension, which one does not matter to me. To see the other projections for our pitchers go to my blog - https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11300-%7B%3F%7D/

I merely added all their WAR scores and gave you the total. I am not predicting. Then you have the Baseball Reference projections - I do not know how much WAR that would earn, but it is not outstanding. Unless we get everyone really on top of their game we are a 500 team. I cannot predict a breakout from Sano, I can only wish it would happen. He now has a track record that is not very good.

I came up with the 500 record simply by adding all the projected wins and losses. I do not know their criteria for figuring this.

What a great quote to open this up. We have a great history of baseball here in MN.

A relief pitcher with an ERA close to 5! He is usually only in for one inning. There are a lot of red flags. Get him cheap or don't get him at all.

Bucholz and Pomeranz do not move the dial for me. Are they really ready to improve the Twins more than what we have? Baseball Reference projects a 6 - 5 record, 3.63 era and 1,24 WHIP for Buchholz and 104 innings. Pomeranz is projected for 7-6, 4.11 and 1.40 with 105 innings. Compare that with the pitcher projections for the existing players. Do either of them make us better or just solidify the 500 status of the club. https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11300-%7B%3F%7D/

It has been up to Sano and Buxton for four years. What is the next plan. The WAR and projections are in my blogs. I am looking for neutral observers and what I see is not good enough. I am excited by Graterol, Kiriloff, and Lewis, but do we want to just wait? The players we have are on one year contracts and we will be clearing a lot of roster for 2020, but it means another year of mediocre play. I can buy that one of the players has a big year, but Sano, Buxton, Schoop, Cron is asking for a lot. https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11299-%7B%3F%7D/ https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11300-%7B%3F%7D/

I had the same concerns and turned to what I think is a neutral arbitrator to look at our pitching for next year and put it on the blog. The real question is - are we satisfied to be a 500 team or do we want to contend. https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11299-%7B%3F%7D/

A few days ago I looked at the Twins lineup and bench and we had a total war of 16+, which is not good and our defensive metrics were not good either. So how do we stand at this point with our pitching? I am using baseball reference as my go to on each player. I am not projecting surprises rookies or trades or FA. There is nothing that makes me think I should. Starting Rotation - WAR - Projections (win-loss) ERA, Whip - someone has to win the game so they count for me. Jose Berrios 3.8 12-10, 4.02, 1.20 Kyle Gibson 3.9 10-11 4.24 1.39 Jake Odorizzi 1.5 8-8 4.18 1,28 Michael Pineda 0.6 4-4 4.37 1.30 - 2017 stats Fernando Romero 0.4 5-5 4.19 1.31 Bullpen Addison Reed 0.1 2-4 3.68 1.23 Taylor Rogers 2.2 3-3 3.46 1.17 Trevor Hildenberg -0.6 4.4 4.50 1.59 Trevor May 0.6 3.2 3.92 1.23 Gabriel Moya 0.2 3-2 4.22 1.27 Adelberto Mejia 1.0 4-4 3.87 1.35 Matt Magill 0.7 3-3 4.08 1.38 Kohl Stewart 0.6 3-3 3.84 1.30 I took Kohl as a random person from Little, DeJong, Curtiss... The WAR for our starters in 10.2 WAR for relievers is 4,8 I am sometimes confused by WAR because if I add our 16.6 batters to the starters and relievers we have 31 games won next year. I think we can ignore that. If these are our pitchers we have 64 wins and 63 losses which leaves us with 34 games from our call ups and fill ins. So lets keep going with the next pitchers on the list. Stephen Gonsalves -0.6 4-3 4.58 1.44 Zach Littell - 0.5 2-3 4.30 1.78 Chase DeJong 0.2 3-4 4.22 1.30 John Curtiss 0.0 1-2 4.34 1.31 Tyler Duffey -0.8 3-3 5.04 1.32 Aaron Slegers 0.0 3-3 4.50 1.28 That brings us to a collective 80 - 81 and someone else - maybe Astudillo Willans will pitch the deciding game on our 500 season. The WAR for this group is -1.7. So with our team as it now stands that is the summary I can extract from Baseball Reference. Do you agree or disagree? This has to fit with https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11299-%7B%3F%7D/ I wish it was a rosier picture, but this is just looking at the data as it sits right now with a team that seems committed to the status quo! I cannot find WAR for coaches.

Yes it is included in WAR, but I want to make sure we recognize that we have a problem that is more than batting. We need to have better gloves too if our pitchers are going to have a chance.

I thought about putting Buxton in starting, but I am not sure of the teams approach and his need to earn his spot back. He makes them better fielding, Cave makes them better hitting.