mikelink45

That supposition needs to be tested by what we can acquire and what that player would mean to our potential success

The friendly contracts are worth much more on the open market making the return much better.

The only reason you would trade him is if the value received was more important to the team, like a number one or two rotation arm. Just like the talk about trading Rosario, the question is - what is either really worth on the open market.

We are already in need of a good back up CF

I am not advocating trading him, but I have read so many trade Rosario scenarios I began to wonder what would happen if we took another of our players and put them out there. Admittedly Betts is the FA RF that will dominate all discussions, but what would Kepler bring us? Here are his basic stats for the MLB career and a comparison with his MIB stats. The first note is that he had not matched his MILB stats in the first three years, but he did last year - OBP/S/OPS. Is this his next platform from which he will continue to get better? His third year was a drop from his first and second so it has not been a steady rise. The columns are BA, games, AB, R, H, 2B, 3B,HR,RBI, BB, K, SB, CS, OBP, S, OPS 2016 23 Minnesota AL MAJ .235 113 396 52 93 20 2 17 63 42 93 6 2 2 .309 .424 .734 2017 24 Minnesota AL MAJ .243 147 511 67 124 32 2 19 69 47 114 6 1 5 .312 .425 .737 2018 25 Minnesota AL MAJ .224 156 532 80 119 30 4 20 58 71 96 4 5 8 .319 .408 .727 2019 26 Minnesota AL MAJ .255 135 529 103 135 34 0 37 92 61 100 2 4 5 .339 .529 .868 Minor League Totals .281 457 1704 268 479 102 37 35 273 206 301 42 9 21 .363 .446 .809 Major League Totals .239 554 1975 302 472 116 8 93 282 221 406 18 12 20 .320 .447 .767 This is from https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/93013/max-kepler/ Despite his injuries at the end of the season he was second to Polanco in PA - Rosario was third on the Twins. Cruz was fourth. In Runs scored - Polanco was first 107, Kepler second 98, Rosario was third 91 - I guess he did get on base, and Cruz was fourth with 81. In hits it was Polanco, Rosario, Cruz and Kepler was fourth. In HR with 36 he was second to Cruz and followed by Sano and Rosario. IN RBIs he was third behind Rosario and Cruz. In strikeouts he was sixth which is good - Sano despite missing part of the season was still number one, followed by Cruz, Polanco and Schoop. Rosario was 10th in the team. BA he was 9th (Rosario was 4th) behind Arraez and Cruz at the top. He was number 6 on the team in OBP while Rosario is 10th. Slugging he was 4th on the Twins at 519 and Rosario was 5th at 500 In total bases it is Polanco, Cruz, Kepler, Rosario. There is the batting comparisons. In WAR, Kepler is 4 and Rosario is 13 - there are pitchers in the WAR list. So Eddie is hurt by fielding comparisons. Rotographs https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2019-outfield-rankings/ has Rosario ranked number 29 among all MLB outfielders. Kepler is 48. And Buxton is 44. New Arena ranked the Twins OF - number 14 out of all the MLB clubs - coming in to last season they wrote, "Combined ’18 WAR: 6.1 https://newarena.com/mlb/ranked-every-mlb-teams-outfield-trio-from-worst-to-best/ If you don’t follow the Minnesota Twins or one of their rivals in the American League Central, you are probably unaware of the talent roaming the outfield at Target Field. Eddie Rosario has been a very good player the past two years for the Twins — posting a two-year average of 26 HR, 78 RBI, .289/.326/.493. As a regular in left, Rosario saved six defensive runs last year. Byron Buxton, the most talented of the bunch, is set to return to the starting lineup after appearing in just 28 games a season ago. Buxton is a five-tool player with the potential to be one of baseball’s best players when he puts it all together. He possesses top-notch speed, a great hit tool, and superior defensive ability. Still only 25 years old, Buxton has time to hit his stride. Occupying the other corner outfield position is Max Kepler. Kepler is good for around 20 homers per year, but also 100 strikeouts. Kepler had a great year in the field in ’18, saving 10 defensive runs." Now that I have put together the information I can find (I am not an advanced stat head - sorry, you can fill that in) you have seen in various TD articles trades with Rosario in the deal. Now put Kepler in and what do we get? Does he have the same perceived value to others that he does with the Twins?

Nick you wrote an article that has generated four pages of comments so far! That is excellent, Sconnie I think you can let this continue. It is the hot stove time and discussions, even arguments are the fuel for the winter - especially until the team takes some actions we can all react and over react to. But in the mean time, keep pushing us and let the readers push back - I have just had a very fun read going from top to bottom in this posting. Thank you.

This was really fun and I was all in until Gibson came back. If I spend time to think about it I really do not see Betts as a good trade - it is one year and gone which is not good enough for that load of talent. If he came with an extension I would be all in.

I feel like I should have a cut and paste to put in each time the Rosario is the worst batter, worst fielder, should be traded is rebroadcast by a TD writer. I am just amazed - we finish a great season in which only one of our three starting fielders stays on the field and he is blasted for that. He played injured, he played tired, he rose to some great heights and slipped to some big lows, but he was there every day and I did not want Cave or Wade replacing him. Baldelli was MOY, smart, savvy, even analytics savvy, and he played him all year at number 4. Was he only smart with the rest of the lineup and roster and somehow uninformed about Eddie? Let's write about the rest of the Twins and let Eddie rest a while. The FO will decide what they want to do with him and then we can debate, but for now how about an article about Kepler - is he really advancing, what is his ceiling or LaMonte Wade, will he stick around, are we stuck with Cave as our extra OF? When will Larnach, Kiriloff, Raley, Rooker be in the lineup?

I love him in 2018, was terribly disappointed in 2019. I have no expectations for 2020.

Wow - another trade Rosario idea! Come on - if he is traded for something really good I am fine, but these blueprints seem to require that he goes. If he is that expendable, why do others want him. If we want something really good maybe the blueprints should start dangling Buxton or Kepler. Bring Cron back. His bat plays well. I am actually worried that we will move Sano again (remember the OF) and mess with him just as he is getting his bat in order. Vogt is 35, signing Castro is a better option.

His 1.4 Whip worries me. Loss of velocity is an issue, if control is an issue too that is not good.

Definitely no. There is a time to move on - for both player and team. We do not want a reunion, we want a championship and sentiment is out the window. New blood! New Arms. Really good arms. Yes this is an arms race and I do not want to line up for the same results - give us October worthy arms.

I agree with DocBauer on the September limit. What this hurts is the minor leaguers. For all the anguish who was really hurt when teams could reward their young players with time on the bench? The pitchers are the ones who will suffer. In September when everyone is worn down the rookie arms helped rest the older arms and this is good, do we want more arm injuries? I do like the three batter rule and I am fine with the 26th man. Teams will still use the 15 day IL like they did the 10 day, but it is another rule change that really does nothing to help anyone. How does it speed up the game? What is the benefit? I liked the commuter train from the minors.

Wow - was Molitor there to congratulate him? What does MOY really mean? Ask Molly and Gardy how much it means.

This is a fascinating topic - I see the projections and find it interesting, but the question I have is where regression is usually found - is it BA, OPS, Power or some other stat. It would seem to me that plate discipline is like speed - it is less likely to regress? Secondly, if MLB removes the rabbit ball do we consider a lesser HR total to be regression?

I join the choir that says don't trade Balazovic. I push his talent, pair him with Graterol in the rotation. I love the idea of Bumgartner or Wheeler, but RPs rise and fall with rapid and unpredictable regularity. I do not trade a possible starter for the RP of the week. I also do not make Gonzalez the regular LF. If you trade Eddie (it seems like most of TD wants to) then put Wade out there or push Kiriloff or Larnach's time clock and get them in the line up. Not excited about Pomeranz nor am I a believer in Pineda. Odorizze, Berrios, Wheeler or Bumgartner, Balazovic, Graterol is my rotation. Of course every year we need at least 8 starters and I see Smeltzer as a rotation filler with Dobnak and then we go with the hot hand in the minors if we need more.

You are too sharp!

I am glad to have you join my choir. I am really puzzled by the Eddie Hate. Your stats are terrific - and really help to dispel those erratic defensive metrics that people like to quote. Thanks. https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11683-%7B%3F%7D/

Yes to the steal. I loved Billy Martin's aggressiveness, I thought Whitey Herzog's Cardinals were great, and Rickey Henderson is a plus in any era. Why does a team give up on any of the skills? I know sabr-metrics cannot measure the quality of confusion and upset that speed has on the other team, but I have seen it and I want to see more.

The thing I am interested in is the metrics that tell us who is willing to sign with us. All the noise about Cole and Strasburg mean nothing if neither would consider us. I do not need to talk about every FA on the list, only those we have a real chance to sign.

Sign the one that is willing to sign with us. This is not an either or, we could afford both, but the fact is, we have to take those willing to become Twins.

Good guesses - don't read the answers if you want to keep guessing. When Mr Harris gave me this question - he stumped me. I missed by one. By the way he introduced Bert Blyleven to his wife.

I am ready - bring him on

I have had the good fortune to be with Mark Harris, a former minor leaguer who threw batting practice for the Twins in the sixties. He once threw Home Run Derby to Aaron and Killebrew and has their autographs! He proposed a question to me that I flunked on, but it was too fun not to pass on. Name five pitchers who had a Cy Young and were convicted of a felony. https://dcbaseballhistory.com/d-c-baseball-history-assorted-videos/1960-home-run-derby-washington-players/ Good luck

Very nice - I agree completely. In an era when Robbie Grossman is considered for the Gold Glove I do not want to hear about defensive metrics.