mikelink45

And amazingly the prevalent theories change over time.

The crazy thing about the playoffs is that everyone has good pitching, good hitting and usually good fielding. The Twins won in 87 and 91 with all those attributes, but more important because they had attitude - Puckett, Hrbek, Morris, Gladden and others would not accept losing. We had some good teams with Mauer and Morneau and a Minnesota Nice attitude. Last two years we had good players and matched up with teams, but who stepped up and said - I am not going to lose? So looking to this year, who has the fire, drive and leadership. Don't say Cruz, he is a great DH, but he has been on the last two playoff teams.

Cleveland, Chicago, A's, Blue Jays https://www.mlb.com/news/best-starting-rotations-heading-into-2021

Darius wrote a comment I really like and stole much of what I would say. So I will just second his post and say that they need to get him up and use him during the year. I want him in front of the Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer trio. And Duran will bypass them too. 2021 - Berrios, Maeda, Balazovic, Duran and ???? I look forward to it.

It has always been a business, even in the Negro Leagues where it was actually the best business for African American entrepreneurs. But the new CBA has to address the Bryant rule - it is one of the silliest things in sports. No other professional sport has anything similar.

I am not anticipating that the GM will give me a call, but I will stay with my take anyway.

A lot of home town bias in the voting. You really presented Polanco with a lot of question marks. In some ways I am very disappointed that Arraez is moved to utility, but anxious to see how the two of them work out.

Miguel is third on this list with the potential to be number one or number 5. I wish I had more confidence in him, but his performance seems to get a shrug and not a concentration on improvement. I do not care about exit velocity unless they start to give us extra runs (points?) for hitting it hard. I do care about Ks.

Lots I disagree with - I love having a debate like this. Broxton is not better than what we have. Why would I want him to play ahead of our rookies? When Kepler moves over it weakens RF - what is the advantage of that. As I have said many times, if a young player is really good he gets extended before the end of his period of servitude so the game we play at the beginning of their career is really silly and if the GM does not know that he really is incompetent.

Interesting column. Like many others the fact that Cruz was an addition, but not a loss too really skewed the WAR lists. Put him on both or remove him because his signing does not raise or lower the bar. As for all the players who had down years last year - we need to hold back on rosy or negative reactions. In this strange time we are dealing with hope, not facts. I am not excited about Arraez as an everyday LF - I want Kiriloff up right away. I know service time - but we have two choices - extend or watch him go when arbitration gets too expensive like his predecessor in LF. That extra year means nothing. I love Arraez, but if he is the Marwin of 2021 then he has to move around and not take and block a position. I am still wondering who backs up Buxton if the injury plague continues? Cave, Arraez and Kepler are not good CF options. If we want defense they better have a good CF in St Paul to step in.

This is my classic ranking complaint. He has potential and hopefully will deserve a high ranking in the future, but until a player shows the beginning of that potential I do not like to see them in the top rankings - especially the top 10, even with your caveat that there is a large gap between him and #6. I would love to see the prospect lists have two parts - those with good MiLB experience and recently drafted and we hope they will do well. Your essay did nothing to change my perspective.

I am less a fan of Max than most readers on this site. His lifetime 237 bothers me. He has had one good power year. I can understand why he would not be ranked with those other studs. Jeffers is my favorite on the list. Rogers is a mystery - I hope last year is a fluke. RP have up and down years, but if last year was real we have a big hole in the BP.

The problem is compounded by your statement. Unless they look like superstars these are the type of players who have almost no trade value. Trades want pitchers not lumber. Look at CJ Cron trying to hang on - he can hit, probably as well as most of these. Eddie Rosario had a tough time as a FA. These guys are good for trades if we throw in an arm too, but on their own I do not see anyone lining up to take these players.

I cannot judge the Twins yet. I was really impressed by Jeffers, but I need to see which Garver is the real one - 2019 or 2020. I really liked the summary. You made me curious about the pipeline - if they go down what prospects are ready to step in? Notes from Prospects1500.com and the number is their rank among prospects in their system. 19. C Sebastian Rivero* KC Age: 22 Highest Level: Triple-A (PCL) A 2015 J2 signing out of Venezuela, Rivero has quickly, especially for a catcher, ascended onto the 40-man roster. 6’1″ 195, Rivero is a very advanced backstop for his age. All the defensive tools are there and reports are his game-calling has made huge strides, but don’t dismiss his offensive potential either. The offense is and will probably always be behind the defense, but Rivera has had success against older competition. As a 19-year-old in Low-A, he hit .258/.301/.391 59/17 K/BB with 7 HR. He is quick to the ball and has advanced pitch selection and recognition for his age. Catcher investments are questionable in dynasty, but Rivero is young, close, and not lacking attractive fantasy skills at a position with a low bar. 7. Dillon Dingler, C (2020 Rank: Unranked) Detroit Age: 22 Highest Level: College Looking past Dingler’s poor choice of colleges (ohio), his glove, position flexibility, and leadership qualities give Dingler an above average projection right out of the 2020 Draft. His ability to call a MLB game and handle a young rotation will be benefited by having manger AJ Hinch in the dugout. If the Tigers can add another veteran catcher to the organization (hearing Yadier Molina in multiple channels), Dingler could develop even faster. Dingler could be an All-Star during his prime years if the contact hitting develops versus a power-or-nothing approach. 19. Seby Zavala, C White Sox Age: 27 Highest level: MLB Zavala is the kind of gritty hard working catcher that coaches love. He is a gifted defender with an athletic build and he earns praise from his pitchers as a quality game caller. With the bat he exhibits plus power but his aggressive approach has generated low walk and high strikeout totals. I remain convinced he will be a solid backup catcher in the big leagues. 8. Bo Naylor, C Cleveland Indians Age: 20 Highest Level: A Another alternate site invitee, Naylor continues to be the apparent Indians catcher of the future. Naylor is an exceptional defender, but he still has some work to do at the plate. If Naylor can improve his on base numbers, he’ll rise quickly, as there aren’t any catchers blocking him. Timing works in Naylor’s favor, as well: Roberto Perez is under contract through 2022. If the team continues to cut payroll and Naylor has a strong season, Perez could be on the move before the 2022 season. Keep a close eye on Naylor’s development for a potential near future catching option. I skipped Ryan Jeffers who is number 8 on this sites listing, because he is already here. - Next: 36. Ben Rortvedt, C Twins Age: 23 Highest Level: AA The Twins curiously protected him before the Rule 5 Draft, thus adding him to the 40-man roster. His bat has never been his strength, since his framing and arm strength have always anchored him to whatever success he’s had. If he can somehow figure out how to improve his bat, he’ll be a Twin, possibly alongside Jeffers down the line.

When Falvey was at Cleveland they had a pitcher pipeline - now we have a slugger pipeline, but try to get Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker, Sabato, and Wallner in the same lineup. Good luck with defense.

Thorpe gets fourth option and I bet the team uses it. He is one of the most disappointing prospects and Smeltzer is a good story, but not a good rotation guy. I think Dobnak will be another good story player and next year we should see Duran and Balazovic in the rotation ahead of Randy. At least I hope so. Of Course I once thought Gonsalves was going to be in the rotation.

Maybe it is because I am so old, but when I see these players struggling, year after year to get to the bigs I feel sorry for them and do not want us to pick up more waiver wire players. I want them to get their chance, to earn a pension, to be rewarded.

I want the fifth spot open to rookies and prospects. Why sign a number 5 who will just fill a slot when we can use it to develop the future. The number 5 does not start in the playoffs (especially if we can't get to a fifth game) and I see no value in pushing the young players down.

I hope so - how great would it be to see a homegrown rotation. FA are fun to talk about, but raising your own is much better.

So ballplayers need to get hits! What a concept. But rather than looking at the HRs - look at the BA - Rosario 277 - Kepler 237. I suspect that Eddie will adapt better than Max.

Eddie Rosario has averaged 2+ WAR over the last 4 years and 0.9 in the short season 2020. I get tired of the repeated downgrading of Eddie - he is gone, he will do well for his next team. But in the analysis we have to account for is loss. His last three full seasons before 2020 he had 2.7, 3.1, 2.4 Offensive War per BR. I do like the upgraded defense in the infield, but baseball has turned into a fly ball league. If/when Buxton goes down I want to see our true centerfielder in the minors come in - not Broxton, not moving Kepler, not cave. Put Celestino in. If the team is acknowledging the importance of defense we should not compromise CF when the time comes that Buxton is not out there. According to Keith Law: Celestino is an above-average center fielder with great bat-to-ball skills who hits the ball surprisingly hard, but often not at the right angle to create more hits and extra bases. Acquired in the Ryan Pressly trade from Houston, he has just an 18 percent strikeout rate in his pro career and has cut his rate with each promotion. If he can fine-tune his swing to hit more line drives, he has everyday upside, maybe even a grade 55 regular ceiling.

I really enjoy these update posts. News with minimum speculation. The off season team that surprises me the most is the CA Angels. With Rendon and Trout still at their peak, they have done nothing to create a quality rotation.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/ It would be nice to think that everyone signed to a baseball contract would see a day in the majors, but here is what this site has to say, "Over three days in early June, more than 1,200 players will have their long-time dreams come true. They will hear their names called as selections in the 2019 draft. Of those more than 1,200 draftees, more than 900 players will agree to terms and sign contracts to become professional baseball players. With one dream fulfilled, they will set their sights on a bigger dream—becoming a major league player. And for more than 700 of those 900 pro players, that dream will go unfulfilled. In studying every draft since Baseball America began covering the draft in 1981, we wanted to answer a very simple question: how many players drafted in June’s MLB draft will eventually make it? The answer is less than one in five. It’s too early to judge the 2011 to 2018 drafts, but from 1981-2010, 17.6 percent of players who were drafted and signed ended up making it to the majors. Those odds vary dramatically depending on where a player is drafted. First-round picks can expect to reach the major leagues. First-round picks who don’t make it are the exception. From 1981 to 2010, 73 percent of first-round picks reached the majors. In 2004, only two of the 29 first-round picks who signed failed to make the majors—a 93 percent success rate that will be hard to beat. But that success rate drops off quickly. By the second round, the rate of players who reach the majors dips to 51 percent. In the third round, 40 percent are eventually going to be major leaguers. From there it continues to steadily dip." There are four minor league affiliates plus two short season teams for each MLB team now. In 2007 the average lifetime of a MLB career was 5.6 years. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070709131254.htm "Early in the talks between MLB and MiLB, MLB discussed a roughly 150-player limit for teams’ domestic minor league rosters. Players playing in the Dominican Republic would not be subject to this limit. MLB teams are already limited to two clubs in the Dominican Summer League. A 150-domestic player limit would ensure each MLB team would be limited to one U.S. complex-based team in the Gulf Coast or Arizona leagues. When you include players on the injured list, restricted list and other non-active players, a 150-player limit would mean MLB teams have no choice other than to field only five domestic minor league teams—four full-season clubs plus one complex team. One size fits all." https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-expected-to-expand-milb-player-limit-for-full-season-clubs/#:~:text=When%20you%20include%20players%20on,clubs%20plus%20one%20complex%20team. Of course MLB has continuously underpaid the players in the minors and (I think) overpaid those in the majors. So who are those prospects at the bottom of the 150 player limit? And why do they hang on? Love of the game? No marketable skills? MLB needs them to fill the roster and they should pay them. Who are the ten players in Elizabethtown who played the fewest games and what do we expect from them? In AAA there were 7 position players over 30 years old, and seven pitchers in the same age range. What do we expect them to do? I do not mind that we have these older players still chasing their dream, in fact I like it, but MLB is cutting them out, cutting teams, cutting dreams. I enjoy the lists that TD writers put up, but I wonder about the bottom 20. Those who have no chance, but love the game and love the opportunity. They need to be recognized too. When MLB cut the minor league teams these underpaid, under appreciated ball players were the ones who suffered. One year of Trevor Bauer's salary would keep them employed for the rest of the century.

Since I have not seen him I can only go by the various reports I read on TD, but they have never been glowing, I do not see how he ranks this high, but hope to be proven wrong. What stands out? What pitch really works - spin rate is nice, but how does it play out? His WHIP is too high. I hope we will have regular updates on all the top 20 this year. A weekly or biweekly stats report on the top 20 would be really nice for those of us who cannot see them in person.

Just enjoy him as long as the body allows him to do what he has, but realize that sometimes the aging process has some steep downward slopes and when it does we thank him and move on.