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The Great Hambino

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Everything posted by The Great Hambino

  1. Speaking for myself, I'm working off the assumption that a sale is not imminent. I do not envision them reinvesting the savings if this is true. I look at what they have, and I just don't see a lineup that can seriously compete in the next two years without some real free agent investment. There are some promising elements that could be key parts of a competitive lineup, but I'm not seeing that middle-of-the-order high level production that a competitive lineup needs. Jenkins or ERod could eventually be that, but not in the next two years without some incredibly wishful thinking. I think the ship has sailed on Wallner and Royce (especially Wallner) being that - too inconsistent. And who catches in 2027? They're not extending Jeffers in this scenario. Nothing they've received in this round of trades will meaningfully help in this window on the position player front (Roden ain't that guy). There's just too many holes to rebuild in-house in that short of a timeframe. And the bullpen ... you're basically starting from scratch. The quality bullpen they just shipped off wasn't built overnight. They may have the elements of one on hand, but they have to work out what the future rotation is first. The guys that don't make that cut might be quality bullpen pieces, but do we really think they can get that all sorted out in less than two years? You're banking on winning a lot of coin flips for that to be true. So, if a return to contention isn't realistic by 2027 without free agent investment, and that investment isn't going to meaningfully happen, then 2026/2027 isn't really a contention window. In that case, there's no reason to keep any of Lopez/Ryan/Ober into next year unless they have health issues dragging their value down to the point they're better off waiting until next trade deadline to see if they can rebuild that value This is all rooted in the assumption that they're not reinvesting the salary savings (both Correa and the arb raises they now don't have to give out) they got this trade deadline. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it. Reasonable minds can differ about the returns they got in trade, but the fact is every single move they made was something you'd do if you were planning on cutting payroll to the bone for the next few years (maybe not Varland so much, but that move certainly didn't cost them more money). It's not the only reason for the trades, but it's certainly a reason.
  2. My first reaction to that was ewww, but now that I think about it, it kinda makes sense. You put butter on corn, and butter and milk are, like, cousins or something. I did not grow up on a farm
  3. I've been trying to think about how this could relate to a sale, because I agree that it doesn't really make much sense to me. Could it be a hedge? Maybe clearing the books while they can in case whatever they have in the works falls through? Maybe they thought they had Ishbia in the bag and don't want to get burned again. So clear yourself of future commitments in case you're left holding the bag. I dunno I've never been a billionaire, but if I were, I would be thinking about a franchise purchase as a decades-long investment. I'm not sure prospective buyers are as concerned with the current state of the roster as fans might think. In my mind, they're playing the long game
  4. I feel like he coulda had him at third on the bunt
  5. I will believe there is a sale taking place when the agreement is signed. I think people are putting waaaay too much stock in vague rumors of “momentum” - whatever that means - and the word of an untrustworthy commissioner. The rumors were much more concrete when they said a sale would be done by opening day. You can believe it’s happening if you want. I don’t have to and won’t without actual evidence
  6. I tell you what, this is more honest and less insulting than the actual letter
  7. I'm thinking that at least two of three of Lopez/Ryan/Ober are gone by the start of next year. I tend to the more pessimistic viewpoint of a quick rebuild. If it turns out that way, then they need to devise some ways to get all these guys turns in the major league rotation. In this situation it's a true evaluation year, so treat it that way. They shouldn't be locked into a traditional 5 man rotation in that case. Get creative - 6 man rotation, cycle between AAA and the majors in some systematic way, piggyback - the best thing they can hope to get out of the 2026 season is information, so use it accordingly. And let them fail, let them learn. Stretch out the guys showing promise as a starter. Find back-of-the-bullpen quality traits and develop them in the guys that aren't. And if they show neither? Let them marinate in AAA if it makes sense, or give them a chance to show value in long relief depending on stuff, age, options, etc. For the guys you've been evaluating in your system, maybe you've already earmarked them as relief material (Raya?) and you can put them in the bullpen from the get go. Hopefully by the end of the year you can see both a rotation and an actual bullpen starting to form. Whatever's left of Sands and Topa can keep the bullpen afloat with what I'd assume will be a DFA conga line of Jay Jackson-type signings. But get them out of the way as soon as some young guys are showing bullpen promise. A noncompetitive season doesn't have to be a wasted one if they treat it right
  8. Now that they have a surplus of lefthanded outfielders at least within shouting distance of the main roster, trades for Larnach and/or Wallner need to be considered this offseason. My preference would be for the more expensive Larnach to go, but Wallner could've been the position player version of Varland (pre-arb, but netting a real return) if he hadn't fallen off a cliff for the better part of this year. Now it would be selling low. But someone needs to move to balance out the roster a bit
  9. Every team produces jack squat from their international free agent system? I understand that catcher is a premium position for a reason. But the Twins have a serious lack of prospects up and down the system and haven't done a good job addressing it (at least until this deadline; as the dust has settled the catchers have been some of my favorite acquisitions). I just hope they're not paying $10MM for their version of Vasquez or Maldonado next year. If the selloff continues into this offseason, I hope finding a high-minors catcher or two is a real priority
  10. They put him in a position to make his own choice regarding his future. That is not failing him. If anything, that's treating him with respect. And if this rebuild/teardown continues going they way I fear it will, then he will be just about their only marketable player left. They'll run out of ways to repackage Buxton bobblehead night
  11. Hopefully Paddack is too bloated from the Tigers' superior pregame spread to pitch well tonight
  12. It can be tough to develop catchers when you only draft one like every five years and your international free agent program is pretty much worthless
  13. Hopefully (Insert Name Here) can give TBD a break in the rotation. That guy starts a ton of games!
  14. There's pretty narrow criteria defining who would be eligible for one of the supplemental PPI draft picks. They would have to be a top 100 prospect AND have fewer than 60 days of service time coming into the season AND have made their MLB debut with their current club AND be with the MLB club within 2 weeks of the start of 2026. If I'm understanding this correctly, and since there's fewer than 60 days left in the season, I don't think that there's anyone they could call up at this point that would jeopardize this status. They either are ineligible anyway because they debuted elsewhere, already accrued too much this year (Keaschall), or they won't have accrued enough service time to lose eligibility for next year (ERod, Raya). Now, while I really don't think the PPI program is a worthwhile justification for keeping guys down at this time, I understand the logic of holding off on the service clock for normal purposes, even I wonder if the trade-off of delayed development is worth it all the time. I mean, are we seriously worried about controlling James Outman for his age 33 season or whatever? They need to figure out what they have in him now.
  15. There are about a dozen guys (give or take a couple depending on your POV) that have no business being part of future plans that are currently on the 40 man. While I think they're still imbalanced in certain areas (are they going to teach one of their endless supply of mediocre lefty outfielders to catch?), there won't be any hard decisions to be made on Rule V guys this winter
  16. I think there's a piece of athletic tape with "Hatch" written on it being slapped onto the nameplate of his locker as we speak
  17. 30 year old righty reliever Thomas Hatch claimed off waivers from KC, supposedly to be added to the 26 man tomorrow. There was space on the 40 man, but no word yet on the corresponding active roster move
  18. I believe a bet on the Tigers tomorrow is what they call arbitrage
  19. Must explain why no contenders wanted any relievers at the deadline
  20. What did you expect him to be? A cheap potential closer with 4 years of control?
  21. Now that the dust has settled with all the player acquisitions, the 40-man is still sitting at only 38 players not counting the 60 day IL, even after McCaughan's contract was selected to fill SWR's spot on the 26-man. If we assume one of those spots will be filled shortly by Keaschall, then what's up with the other one? I haven't heard any reports that Pablo is anywhere near returning
  22. I think Pablo's return/nonreturn this season might provide a little insight into their offseason plans If they plan on keeping him as a rotation anchor beyond this year, I could see them shelving him for precautionary purposes. If they plan on moving him in the offseason, then surely they'll want to showcase for other teams that he's fully healthy again. It's moot if he has a legitimate setback in recovery. I haven't found any recent reports, but as of late July I saw he had progressed to some long toss but had not yet begun throwing off a mound. Anyone know of some more recent reports?
  23. I understand the big picture approach, but several aspects of this bother me. One of those is the position-player portion of the returns on these trades. 100% of the position players brought back are either a teenaged C or a LH hitting outfielder. The catching part makes sense given their refusal to spend meaningful draft capital at the position and the absolute dearth of meaningful catching prospects throughout the organization. But how many unproven and/or lower-ceiling LH hitting outfielders can an organization have? Before the trades, they already had former prospects not reaching their former ceilings (Larnach, Wallner) or never really possessing a meaningful ceiling in the first place (Keirsey) at the big league club with multiple years of control. Their top two current prospects (Jenkins, ERod) are LH hitting outfielders. And then they go and add three more (Roden, Outman, Mendez) at the deadline. I believe all but Jenkins either are already on the 40 man or need to be added this winter. That's a lot of LH hitting outfielders They keep telling us that this is all necessary to be in a position to contend in the short-term. The lineup needs some immediate upgrades for short-term contention to even be possible. Unless they plan on expoiting some extreme market inefficiency on LH outfielders this winter, I don't see how anything they've done accomplishes that goal. I realize that the whole point of this rebuild is a more long-term contention window, regardless of the corporate slop Falvey's been peddling. I guess I just wish they'd quit peeing on my leg and telling me it's raining
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