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The Great Hambino

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Everything posted by The Great Hambino

  1. I disagree. I think he showed closer potential this year. I might be higher on him than others, but that's not a Minnesotan bias. It's a wrestler bias. But that's neither here nor there
  2. Those "fairly cheap" veterans are still more expensive than Varland. And it's not like his trade value was vanishing at the deadline. In fact, he could easily have had more value at future deadlines if he spent 2026 establishing himself as a closer, which I believe he has the stuff and mentality to do. They acted as if this was their last chance to recoup value on him We're just going to have to agree to disagree on Roden. I think that's an incredibly optimistic percentage that assumes no future development on Varland's end
  3. If they go this route (my gut says they will), then Raya, Culpepper, Prielipp, and Rojas should be part of the mix as well at some point in the season. They need to give all of them a look so a more permanent rotation and some semblance of a bullpen can be identified by the end of the year. Adams and Ohl could be in this mix as well to varying degrees. I don't see them as having real shots as permanent fixtures in the rotation (maybe they could be developed into long relief or mid-leverage bullpen options?), but they still should be there to fill out the rotation as needed if some of the above are better served in AAA or injuries start to rack up
  4. All those things are also true about Varland, except he'd be cheaper and with more long-term control. If the Twins had received a Varland clone in one of these trades, we'd be stoked that they at least had a young pre-arb guy with closer potential to build the future bullpen around. My biggest issue with this trade is they acted seemingly out of an urgency that they didn't need to have. This trade just wasn't necessary. It's the kind you make only if you're getting a Godfather offer. Since I see Roden as a low-ceiling redundancy, this value has to come pretty much entirely from Rojas. I'm not going to pretend to know anything about him other than what I've read, but is his median outcome better than what Varland is now? It better be well past that for this to make sense.
  5. Not a bad overall list relative to each other. In my mind, they should get a demerit on every trade that wasn't an expiring contract because, at least from the outside looking in, they didn't need to make those trades. Your trade partners in those trades are doing so because they have an immediate need. In these circumstances, you should be shooting to receive a premium above what the on-paper value would suggest - you should have the leverage. In practice, that's not going to happen with every trade. But Gleeman made a good point that there wasn't one single trade that you can look at and say "Wow, the Twins got great value there" relative to on-paper value. If you're making nine trades, you should be able to say that about at least one of them, right? And the Outman trade should be an F minus. If he needs to be "working on things" at AAA at the age of 28, then he should probably be playing overseas or in independent ball. I honestly would've preferred a complex league flier in return for Stewart
  6. They've spent their entire existence in a barely-accessible warehouse. That has to have played a part in tamping down attendance. And then there's Florida itself. For whatever reason, it seems like baseball is wildly popular in that state at every level ... except for the local teams at the highest level. That's always struck me as odd.
  7. Define VERY strong correlation 4 of the last 8 World Series participants had losing records against >.500 teams in the regular season, including 2 champs
  8. There are currently only 6 teams with winning records against >.500 teams, and two of them are only a game above .500. No one in the NL West is, not even the Dodgers. It's a really tough threshold to reach
  9. Respect the CF for giving it the ol' college try even though it hit the batters eye like 12 feet up
  10. Upon further review, what looked like an awkward turn by Keaschall at first was more due to a low flip from Lee. I rescind by criticism
  11. Not exactly the smoothest 6-4-3 you'll ever see, but got the job done
  12. I'm shocked that LaTroy is shocked that was an error. If that's not an error, then there really isn't any reason to make the distinction
  13. He really wasn't on this one. He was set up for a throw, just not a great transition by my eyes
  14. Ironically, cuz we didn't think the Coast Guard would find us there (We were killing time before a college buddy's wedding that afternoon, and someone in our group has a boat club membership)
  15. Earlier this summer, I was on a boat in Duluth that got boarded by the Coast Guard. Turned out that it was a routine inspection and they had half a dozen young trainees along for the ride. Pierson Ohl looks like every single one of the trainees
  16. In keeping with recent game threads... Is this another Ron Jeremy thing?
  17. I appreciate the convo as well. I like to think my pessimism is realism, but that might be a defense mechanism - expect the worst, hope for the best. (Except for Outman. That I'm full-blown pessimist. Meaningful pieces of a contender don't need time at AAA to work on things at age 28) Ultimately my entire viewpoint hinges on their willingness to reinvest in payroll, which will or won't happen regardless of my opinion
  18. I would hope for a return like you described for Ryan. If they're not looking at 2026 as a competitive year, it would open up the possibilities of getting someone a little further away but more highly regarded. But that's in the ballpark of what I'd hope to get for him. I think that they do have the elements of a quality bullpen, I just don't think they'll have them identified and developed by any time next year. I think - in fact, I hope - it takes them longer than April 2026 to sift through their pile of young fringe starters and figure out the future rotation. And I think that has to happen before they can really develop they guys that don't make the cut as back-end bullpen stalwarts. And I don't see that happening over the course of 2/3rds of a season. If they have a quality bullpen by the end of 2027, they will have done an impressive job. I don't think extending Jeffers is an option because I don't know why he or Boras would agree to one without it being very lucrative, and I just don't see current ownership doing that. Just because they have the funds to spend on an O'Hearn doesn't mean they will. In fact, I'd be shocked if current ownership did. Same with any meaningful bullpen reinforcements. I think they're shopping in the Jay Jackson clearance rack. The outfield you've described is not a contending outfield, at least not right away. I'm very excited for Jenkins, but I think it's wishful thinking to think that he'll be the kind of player they need him to be to contend right away, certainly not in 2026. Gonzalez is even less likely to be that kind of contributor in that timeframe. Roden to me is a less powerful Larnach with the bat. Outman and Martin? Come on, man... Ultimately, the timing of their window depends on their willingness to reinvest their salary savings in the roster. Under this ownership, I just don't see that happening. They just don't seem like the type to put money into an asset they don't want. But all bets are off if there's new ownership in place anytime soon. I will say this, though: I think they've positioned themselves well to be able to pivot in either direction. If they do choose to go for a quick turnaround, they have the opportunity to make real upgrades through free agency, especially if the only starter traded is Lopez (more immediate cash available). But they're also in a position to complete a full teardown this offseason if that reinvestment isn't happening. They haven't picked a lane, but they are in a position to decisively pick one this offseason
  19. I haven't seen definitive reports either, but I have seen reports that their debt load is almost triple what other similar franchises like Cleveland hold. The Twins have run their payroll a little higher, but not that much higher. It would be bizarre for that debt to be purely baseball debt.
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