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The Great Hambino

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Everything posted by The Great Hambino

  1. The Great Hambino
    Exact same lineup they used in their other game against a lefty starter, if you're into that sort of thing
  2. The Great Hambino
    I know it's early, but Bell has yet to touch his 1B mitt this season, and he's the DH again today with Caratini at first
  3. The Great Hambino
    If your plan is to sacrifice defense in the name of a bat, and that lefthanded bat is batting seventh in a mediocre lineup against righthanded starters ... I think there might be a flaw in your plan.
  4. The Great Hambino
    I think it was as much - if not more - about lack of faith in the bullpen and taking an opportunity to limit its exposure where they can. If they wanted to avoid skipping Abel completely, they could've either stuck to the five-man order even with the extra days off (only four games in the first seven days after the end of spring training) or given Abel one start in St Paul while carrying an extra reliever for the first week. It's another way to steal innings away from the bullpen, and all else equal, I don't think anyone here thinks that's a terrible idea. They didn't get the result today, but they were closer to success than it might appear in the boxscore. All of Ober's runs allowed came on one pitch, and Abel's day looks very different if he can find a way to be more efficient with two strikes. Not a bad plan, but bad execution. It happens. You could certainly argue that they could've/should've pivoted when Abel was in trouble in the 7th. But Shelton's trying to make chicken salad out of ... suboptimal ingredients. I don't mind him trying to be creative, at least not until it becomes a bad pattern
  5. The Great Hambino
    I meant the mathematical repeating decimal I can't believe my deep-cut reference to a 20 year old viral video (Leeerooooy Jenkins FWIW) went unnoticed by everyone
  6. The Great Hambino
    I guess X = 3.33 Repeating, of course
  7. The Great Hambino
    I think they got away with one there
  8. The Great Hambino
    Fair enough. I woulda pulled him maybe after the Beavers double and definitely after the Rutschman double
  9. The Great Hambino
    I don't hate the idea of using Abel this way in this part of the schedule where you don't need your 5th starter right away. Keep him on a somewhat reqular schedule while lightening the load on your bullpen where you can. Just didn't execute well enough with two strikes
  10. The Great Hambino
  11. The Great Hambino
    One that the catcher lets go to the backstop? They're just different degrees of bad. Like different circles of hell
  12. The Great Hambino
    ABS gives us the opportunity for a new category of bad strikeout: looking with the bases loaded and two outs while senselessly burning your final challenge
  13. The Great Hambino
    Buxton's legs have scored 100% of their runs this year
  14. The Great Hambino
    Pete Alonso, for the good of society, please shave your head. Stop fighting it
  15. The Great Hambino
    This touches on my biggest gripe with how analytics-based decision making is presented. Instead of comparing average outcomes of decisions, the exact same data could be used to tell us a decision needs to have an X% chance of success to be the optimal one. Using this run expectancy situation as an example, you could use the exact same data used to come up with average run expectancy to determine that swinging away must be successful 28%* of the time to make the risk worthwhile. Once you have that, now you can look at the specific game situation to determine if you meet that threshold. Now you have a framework that still relies on the same quantitative data as run expectancy while allowing you to adjust the dials to account for the realities of the current situation. That's how you marry quantitative and qualitative analysis to come up with the best decision. You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater and ignore all that valuable data and just revert to relying on the manager to gnaw on a blade of grass and do whatever his tummy tells him to do As a secondary pet peeve, win probability should replace run expectancy as the bedrock of these types of decisions, especially later in the game. Doing so would do a better job of accounting for the fact that a run while down one in the eighth has more marginal value than a run while up two in the fifth, for example. * Figure pulled out of thin air
  16. The Great Hambino
    That was also immediately after Martin had thrown to the wrong base on the sac fly which allowed the eventual winning run to move into scoring position. A big complaint about the prior manager was the apparent lack of accountability for mental mistakes Every situation has a unique set of circumstances. My expectations aren't too high, but I think we need to give Shelton a little time to establish his habits before we turn on him
  17. The Great Hambino
    It's the first start of the season and Ryan is coming off a pretty disjointed spring training ramp-up ... I'm giving Shelton the benefit of the doubt for now. If the same thing happens to a healthy Ryan on May 1, then I'll start getting annoyed. Plus, the bullpen's exposure is going to be limited by never having to pitch the ninth inning on the road No matter how bad things get, Ryan starts will remain must-see TV. His curve was especially nasty
  18. The Great Hambino
    And yet that didn't apply to Funderburk/Chafin
  19. The Great Hambino
    They must not trust Roden in CF. That's the best I can come up with
  20. The Great Hambino
    The premature 'round the horn is gonna be a fun byproduct of ABS
  21. The Great Hambino
    Orioles Daily just turned on Taylor Ward
  22. The Great Hambino
    You'd be exhausted too if you spent all that time walking back to the dugout carrying your bat during the WBC
  23. The Great Hambino
    No runs allowed, no decision: the true Joe Ryan Experience At least until 8/3
  24. The Great Hambino
    Throwing the ball to third on a flyball with runners on first and third Midseason form
  25. The Great Hambino
    I might already be sick of Bell's stance and swing
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