Cody Christie

Relief pitchers tend to burn bright and die out quickly as the league adjusts to their pitching tendencies. Tyler Duffey and Caleb Thielbar fit this mold, and they are following a similar path as previous Twins relievers. Every team enters the season with a bullpen pecking order, but relievers can be inconsistent, especially in small sample sizes. In recent years, Duffey and Thielbar have been vital members of the Twins bullpen, but both have struggled this season. Here’s a look back at three former relievers that burned bright before falling on hard times. Pat Neshek Twins Peak: Neshek quickly became a fan favorite with his side-arm delivery and early success. During his first two big-league seasons, he posted a 2.68 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 127 batters in 107 1/3 innings. He’d make two appearances with the Twins in the 2006 playoffs, but he struggled to find postseason success like many Twins pitchers. During the 2007 season, Neshek was one of five AL players included on the All-Star Final Vote ballot, but he’d fall short of making the team. Neshek established himself as a reliable late-inning reliever before he faced some big-league struggles. Twins Struggles: From 2008 to 2010, Neshek was limited to fewer than 25 big-league innings, and those innings were ineffective. During the 2008 season, he made 15 appearances and allowed seven earned runs before an injury shut him down. Minnesota tried having him rehab, but his 2009 season was wiped out as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Neshek returned to the mound in 2010 and spent most of the season at Triple-A. His final 11 appearances for the Twins resulted in a 5.00 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP. Even with his Twins tenured ending, Neshek’s career was far from over as he made multiple All-Star appearances and pitched until the 2019 season. Juan Rincón Twins Peak: Rincón pitched parts of eight seasons in Minnesota, but his peak came from 2004 to 2006. He posted a 2.66 ERA during those three years with a 1.19 WHIP and 255 strikeouts across 233 1/3 innings. He was one of Ron Gardenhire’s most reliable late-inning options as the team won multiple AL Central titles. Rincón pitched in three different playoff series and posted a 5.19 ERA in 8 appearances, but four of his five earned runs were in the 2004 ALDS against the Yankees. As he entered his age-28 season, things started to go south for Rincón. Twins Struggles: During his final season and a half in Minnesota, Rincón hit a performance wall. In 2007, his ERA jumped from 2.91 to 5.13 while his strikeout rate dropped and his walk rate increased. Things went even worse during the 2008 season as his ERA was north of 6.00. Minnesota granted him his free agency at the end of June, and he signed with Cleveland two days later. After leaving the Twins, he pitched 93 more big-league innings for the Indians, Tigers, and Rockies, but he never posted an ERA lower than 4.50 with any of the teams. José Mijares Twins Peak: Mijares surprised many during the 2008 season as he made ten appearances and allowed one earned run with a 0.29 WHIP. In the 2009 season, he took on an even more prominent bullpen role. Over 61 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.34 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP with a 55-to-23 strikeout to walk ratio. Mijares, a left-handed pitcher, was particularly effective against lefties as they hit .155/.228/.252 (.481) against him in 2009. He was very successful in an era where left-handed specialists played vital bullpen roles. Twins Struggles: Some of his struggles started during the 2009 ALDS as he couldn’t make it through one full inning without allowing a run. Mijares saw his ERA rise by over an entire run for the 2010 season, and then it went up to 4.59 for the 2011 season. He was never a strikeout machine, but his K/9 dropped from 7.7 to 5.5 in his final Twins season. Mijares made three appearances during the 2010 playoffs and didn’t allow an earned run. After leaving Minnesota, he pitched parts of two seasons with the Royals and Giants while helping San Francisco win the 2012 World Series. Are you worried that Duffey and Thielbar will follow the path of these former relievers? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins had a player to be named later included in the trade for Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker. On Thursday, Minnesota announced the prospect as right-handed pitcher Brayan Medina. It can certainly be intriguing when a trade includes a player to be named later. Jeremy tried to identify which player might be included in the deal, which can be a tough task. Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan were the first two pieces of the trade, but here’s a little about prospect the team just added to the deal. Brayan Medina was considered the top Venezuelan pitching prospect when the 2019 international signing period opened. San Diego signed him for $700,000, and he was set to make his debut during the 2020 season. Unfortunately, the pandemic canceled the 2020 season and pushed his pro debut to the 2021 season. Last year, the 18-year-old started in the Dominican Summer League. In 28 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.71 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a 42-to-21 strikeout to walk ratio. Medina’s last three appearances came in the Arizona Complex League, where he struggled in limited action. He allowed four earned runs in two of his appearances as he surrendered three home runs. On a positive note, he struck out seven batters in five innings. Still a teenager, Medina has room to add to his 6-foot-1, 180-pound frame, which may increase his velocity in the years ahead. He currently has a three-pitch mix, including a fastball, slider, and changeup. According to MLB Pipeline, his fastball grades as a 60 as it sits in the mid-90s, but he can occasionally pump it up into the high-90s. His slider is his best secondary pitch as it currently grades as a 55, which is above average. His changeup has shown the most improvement since he signed and currently grades as a 50. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 14th best Padres prospect. FanGraphs isn’t relatively as high on Medina as MLB Pipeline as they ranked him as San Diego’s 29th best prospect. They grade his fastball as a 45 with a future grade of 55. FanGraphs identifies his best secondary pitch as a curveball instead of a slider, but some of that is due to his vertical slot delivery. His curveball currently grades as a 45 with a future grade of 55. Both of these pitches would rank as above average. One of his most significant issues last season was a high walk rate, as he surrendered 24 walks in just under 34 innings. Some of this comes from a violent delivery, but it can also be attributed to the limited amount of innings he has accumulated as a professional. His release point is from a vertical slot, which helps his secondary pitches to be more effective. As a player to be named later, Medina has plenty of potential. His ceiling looks like a mid-rotation starter, but his top two pitches also make him an intriguing bullpen option. In the Twins system, he’d likely rank in the back half of the team’s top-30 prospects. What do you think about Medina’s scouting reports? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Early seasons numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. There is plenty of season left for players to find their rhythm, but here are three surprises from the team’s early action. Dylan Bundy Strong Starts When the Twins signed Dylan Bundy, he looked like a veteran pitcher that would add depth to the back of the starting rotation. He was coming off a terrible season for the Angels, where he posted a 6.06 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. It was easy not to get too excited about what he could mean to the Twins based on his previous performance. However, he has faced two potential playoff teams, and his season couldn’t have started much better. Against Seattle, he pitched five shutout innings while only allowing one hit. On Monday in Boston, he pitched into the sixth inning while racking up six strikeouts and limiting a potent Red Sox lineup to one run. This year, his most significant improvement is a big jump in chase rate as he ranks in the 92nd percentile. His slider, which he uses against righties, resulted in a 60 Whiff%. Bundy is also using his changeup more regularly, so these will be trends to watch in his future starts. Carlos Correa’s Cold Bat Carlos Correa is coming off a tumultuous winter where he tested free agency for the first time, changed agents, and arrived at spring training after other players. Maybe all of those aspects impact his on-field performance, or he is just in the middle of a rough patch. Either way, he is off to the worst start of his career with a .595 OPS with three extra-base hits in the team’s first nine games. Minnesota was certainly expecting more from Correa, and he was likely expecting more from himself. His cold start also brings up another intriguing aspect for the years ahead. Minnesota signed him to a three-year contract with opt-outs at the end of each season. Correa was likely hoping to hit the free-agent market again next winter as he entered his age-28 season and cash in on an even more lucrative deal. If he has a poor performance in 2022, he may reconsider staying with the Twins for 2023. That decision is a long way off at this point, and Twins fans hope his bat warms up as the weather improves. Jhoan Duran’s Strikeout Totals Fans were excited to see what Jhoan Duran could add to the Twins bullpen, especially those that have followed his minor league career. His appearances have turned into must-watch TV with his triple-digit fastball and his already famous splinker. Duran has racked up some strikeout numbers in limited action. Across six innings, he has 11 strikeouts which rank second among all relievers in baseball. The only pitcher ahead of him has appeared in three more games than Duran and pitched one more inning. It will be interesting to see how the Twins use Duran throughout the rest of the season. Minnesota will likely watch his innings pitched and his time between appearances with his previous injury history. Duran has already made appearances in close games during the late-innings. He will likely serve in a closer role at some point in the future, but will he get those opportunities in 2022? Which of these surprises stands out most to you? Are there other surprises on the team? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Emilio Pagán was brought back as part of the Taylor Rogers trade to give the Twins a late-inning bullpen option. Unfortunately, some signs and projection systems point to him being a potential bullpen bust. Are they right? Pagán is entering his age-31 season, and he has bounced around MLB over the last six seasons. His first two seasons were in AL West as he pitched in relief for Seattle and Oakland. In 112 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.85 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. Tampa Bay added him for the 2019 season, and he posted career-bests in nearly every statistical category, including 20 saves. Like many relievers, the Rays were able to get the best out of him before shipping him away. His time in San Diego pointed to a few concerning trends as he posted a 4.75 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 85 1/3 innings. In Tampa, he was able to keep the ball in the park, avoid hard contact, and miss enough bats to be effective. There's a reason the Padres were looking for a different late-inning reliever, and Minnesota is searching for the 2019 version of Pagán. During the 2021 season, there were plenty of things that went wrong in San Diego, and Pagán may have played a role in the team's downfall. His Hard Hit % and Barrel % ranked in the 7th percentile or lower, which resulted in him allowing one of baseball's worst average exit velocities. Batters posted a .538 SLG against his fastball last season, so changing his pitch mix may be something the Twins examine with him. Giving up that much hard contact also results in more home runs. Last season, he posted a career-worst 2.3 HR/9 after posting a 1.6 HR/9 for his career. His 13 home runs allowed in 2021 may have been higher had he not been pitching with San Diego's spacious outfield behind him. Home run rates can be unstable, especially for relievers, but it will be something to watch this season. Another concern from 2021 was his lack of first-pitch strikes, which tends to increase a pitcher's walk rate. Last season, he posted a 2.6 BB/9, which was slightly above his 2.3 BB/9 for his career. Many projection systems viewed his walk rate as an area of concern for the 2022 campaign. If a reliever can't throw first-pitch strikes, there is a good chance he will allow more base runners, which is a recipe for disaster. FanGraphs’s ZiPs projection identified Pagán as a potential bust candidate. According to them, “A bust is a player who will step down a tier in performance or who is in a down cycle and has passed the window to get back to what they used to be. None of the players involved are literally without value, and some of them are still really good.“ There is still an opportunity for Pagán to provide value to the Twins this season. In limited action this season, the Twins have already attempted to make some changes with Pagán. His fastball usage has decreased while his cutter has stayed the same. So, what's the most significant change? For the first time in his career, he is using a split-finger pitch. Relievers tend to have such a small sample size throughout a season, but it will be interesting to see his success in adding this pitch to his repertoire. Even with some struggles last season, Pagán showcased some strong areas on which the Twins can capitalize. His fastball spin ranked in the 91st percentile, even with MLB cracking down on the use of sticky substances. His Whiff% ranked in the 74th percentile, his K% ranked in the 67th percentile, and his xBA ranked in the 65th percentile. If Minnesota trusts Pagán in late-inning situations, he needs to continue to improve in these areas. Do you think Pagán is destined to be a bust this season, or do you think he can be a reliable option in the back of the Twins' bullpen? Leave a COMMENT and join the discussion. View full article

As Byron Buxton slid into second base, all of Twins Territory collectively held their breath. Thankfully, his knee injury doesn’t appear to be serious, but the Twins may need to shift Buxton’s role when he returns to action. There’s no way that it happened again. Most fans had to be thinking after watching Buxton slide into second base at Fenway Park. He slapped the ground in frustration and walked off the field under his own power, but it would mean more missed time for Buxton with an offense that has struggled to start 2022. So, what can the Twins do with their star center fielder? Injuries have been part of Byron Buxton’s story throughout his professional career. Minnesota has already tried various techniques to keep Buxton healthy, including altering his jumping technique at the wall and positioning him deeper in the outfield. Those strategies may have helped him avoid some injuries, but every game he misses is value he isn’t providing to the Twins. Shifting Buxton to a more regular designated hitter role is a unique idea that deserves some exploration. Alex Fast is a VP at Pitcher List and he creates content for ESPN and MLB Network. He has over 26.1 K follows on Twitter, so he is certainly a voice that many listen to in the baseball world. However, many Twins fans may have been a little stunned by his suggestion over the weekend. Buxton doesn’t have any structural damage to his knee, and the team hopes he can avoid an IL trip. One way to get him back into the line-up is to have him serve as DH. Minnesota utilized this strategy in recent years with Josh Donaldson and his aging legs. Nick Gordon is undoubtedly a defensive downgrade, but Buxton in the line-up is more valuable than having him on the bench. On the surface, this might seem like a logical solution, but many of Buxton’s recent injuries have occurred while on offense. His knee injury resulted from him stretching a single into a double. Last season, he broke his hand on a hit by pitch and suffered through some hamstring issues. While his hamstrings may benefit from less time in the outfield, these other injuries are still likely to occur when he serves in a DH role. Buxton has never played a game at the DH position in his career. It may seem easy to slide a player into that spot, but it can be a difficult transition for some hitters. Not playing on the defensive side can take focus off the game and make it harder for a hitter to lock in when it is time to step into the batter’s box. Buxton may be able to handle the transition, but he’s passionate about his defensive ability and the value he provides the team in center field. While Buxton’s bat is elite, he provides so much value on the defensive side of the ball. This season, even in limited action, he ranks in the 95th percentile for Outs Above Average (OAA). Since 2016, he has compiled 60 OAA even with his time missed due to injury. He is arguably baseball’s best defensive center fielder. Gordon has showcased some defensive versatility during his big-league career, but he is a significant downgrade in centerfield, especially since he just started playing the position in 2021. Playing centerfield is one of baseball’s most taxing defensive positions, so allowing Buxton a respite from the outfield may get him back into the line-up. However, this seems like a short-term solution while the Twins are looking for a long-term answer for Buxton’s injury woes. When on the field, Buxton plays with an all-out effort that separates him from many other big-league players. Unfortunately, this has resulted in a myriad of injuries, and it might be time for the team to take a new approach. Do you think shifting Buxton to a more regular DH role would keep him in the line-up? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

In 2019, the Twins had CJ Cron and Miguel Sanó on the same roster and a decision needed to be made. Minnesota extended Sanó and let Cron walk, but hindsight might point to that being a poor decision. The 2019 season was one of the most memorable Twins seasons in recent memory. After nearly a decade of irrelevancy, Minnesota’s Bomba Squad was born, with the team clubbing an MLB-record 307 home runs. Five Twins hitters combined for 30 or more home runs, and the team won over 100 games for only the second time in franchise history. During the 2019 season, Miguel Sanó became a first-time member of the 30 home run club. For the season, he hit .247/.346/.576 (.923) with 34 home runs and a 139 OPS+. He set career highs in nearly every offensive category but so did a lot of other Twins players. MLB’s baseballs from that season were flying out of parks at tremendous rates, so many players accumulated hollow stats that season before the baseballs returned to normal. Following the season, the Twins signed Sanó to a three-year, $30 million contract that would keep him in Minnesota through the 2022 season. Since signing his extension, Sanó has frustrated fans with his record-breaking strikeout totals and offensive inconsistencies. In 197 games, he has batted .213/.302/.459 (.761) with a 109 OPS+ and 283 strikeouts. His slow start to the 2022 season was also concerning, but fans have seen his streakiness in the past. It’s also very early into the 2022 campaign, and all of Minnesota’s hitters have struggled so far. CJ Cron was another member of that Bomba Squad roster, but he fell just shy of the 30 home run plateau. In 125 games, he hit .253/.311/.496 (.780) with 25 home runs and a 104 OPS+. It was disappointing to see Cron post an OPS+ that was eight points below his career mark in a heightened offensive environment. He missed time during the season with a thumb injury, and there were concerns that the injury could linger into the 2020 campaign. Minnesota non-tendered him during the offseason, and he hit the free-agent market. Since leaving the Twins, Cron has provided tremendous value when he has been on the field. A knee injury limited him to 13 games in 2020, but he posted an .894 OPS with seven extra-base hits. Cron headed to Colorado in 2021 and posted one of the best seasons of his career. In 142 games, he hit .281/.375/.530 (.905) with 31 doubles and 28 home runs. Over the last three seasons, FanGraphs ranks Cron as the 13th most valuable first baseman. Sanó is 25th on the list and ranks only ahead of three players with a minimum of 600 plate appearances. Cron’s overall value comes from how much better defensively he is at first base compared to Sanó. According to SABR’s Defensive Index, Cron posted a 1.2 SDI last season, which ranked seventh in the National League. Only one AL first baseman, Bobby Dalbec, posted a lower mark than Sanó’s -5.6 SDI. Cron was also worth five more outs above average than Sanó during the 2021 season. Overall, Cron might not be elite defensively, but he is a step up compared to Sanó. Many teams will look at the Cron versus Sanó situation with the same lens as the Twins. Sanó was multiple years younger and coming off a season where he had a 139 OPS+. That same winter, the Twins added Josh Donaldson to play third base, which pushed Sanó over to first. Cron was a solid player during his time in Minnesota, but he never fit into the team’s long-term plans. Now, that might look like the team took a swing and a miss. Do you think the Twins made the wrong choice at first base? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Luis Arraez entered the season as a bench bat, but it has to be hard to keep his name out of the line-up. So, does Luis Arraez deserve a full-time starting role? Arraez has quickly become a fan favorite during his four seasons as a big leaguer. His energy at the plate and ability to spit at pitches on the edges of the strike zone make him exciting for even casual fans. It's hard to believe he just turned 25-years-old over the weekend. Fans would be thrilled to have him take over a starting role, but there may be a method to the team's madness. On the team's depth chart, Arraez is the backup defender at second base, third base, and designated hitter. He's played outfield in the past, but the team spoke about not using him in the outfield this spring. His defensive starts have come at third base this season, which is his best defensive position. Last season, he finished fifth among the AL's third basemen according to SABR's Defensive Index. Minnesota may have a natural platoon at third base with Arraez and recently-acquired Gio Urshela. For his career, Arraez, a left-handed hitter, has hit .332/.380/.441 (.820) versus right-handed pitching. His platoon splits are significantly different as his OPS is 152 points higher when facing lefties. Urshela, a right-handed hitter, doesn't have the extreme splits as Arraez, but his OPS is 39 points higher against left-handed pitchers. There's a scenario where the Twins can continue to rotate through these two players, allowing Arraez to get regular at-bats. Arraez's bat is also valuable in a pinch-hitting role as he is 5-for-15 (.333 BA) in his career. His MLB debut was as a pinch hitter, and he has already been used as a pinch hitter this season. "His special skills, I think, are the same skills that make him a good hitter in general," manager Rocco Baldelli said. "… His feel in the box as a hitter, his ability to see the ball, his hand-eye coordination. He's not going up there, generally ever, swinging and missing, almost ever. He's putting good swings on the ball always. That's kind of who he is." An argument can also be made for giving Arraez regular time off. He has missed time with knee issues throughout his career, including stints on the IL last season. He has only played more than 120 games in one season in his big-league career. His career-high for games played is 146 games during the 2019 season, when he played 92 MLB games and 54 games in the minors. Rocco Baldelli has advocated for giving players regular rest during his tenure, so giving Arraez time off may be best for his problematic knees. Opportunities may arise during the season for Arraez to take on a more regular role. One injury to a regular starter may cause the team to need Arraez to be a starter. Many of the team's top prospects at Triple-A are infielders, so it seems likely that Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis will make their debuts in 2022. If a player gets injured, the Twins may keep Arraez in his current role and promote a top prospect to become the everyday starter. Arraez provides value to the Twins no matter his role on the team. It's critical for the team to keep him healthy this season, and that might mean keeping him out of the line-up when there is a tough left-handed pitcher on the mound. Arraez provides a spark to the team, but he has to be healthy, and that is on the field less than some fans would like him to be. Do you think Arraez has earned a starting role? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota’s pitching pipeline is already evident on the Opening Day roster. Let’s look back at how much Josh Winder improved in the Twins farm system. The Twins selected Winder with their 7th round pick back in 2018 from Virginia Military Institute. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were at the helm of their second draft, and Winder is projected to be a steal at that late point in the draft. Out of the 2018 draft, only two players have debuted, Trevor Larnach (1st round) and Ryan Jeffers (2nd round). In college, He posted a 4.52 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. Winder numbers were hardly outstanding, but the Twins must have seen something that intrigued the scouting department. Winder’s professional debut came in the Appalachian League shortly after signing with the Twins. He started nine games (38 2/3 innings) and posted a 3.72 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. Nearly all of his numbers were better than his collegiate career including an improved K/9 and BB/9. Even in a small sample size, there were signs pointing to Winder improving. During the 2019 season, Winder continued to carve up lower level hitters in Cedar Rapids. He pitched 125 2/3 innings with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. His strikeout rate dipped from over 9.8 K/9 in his debut to 8.5 K/9, but it's hard to ignore the other numbers he was able to compile. Like many prospects, it looked like the 2020 season was going to be important for his development. Unfortunately, the minor league season didn’t happen, but Winder was able to make improvements outside of game action. Winder added to his frame during the shutdown and those results were evident during the 2021 season. His fastball sat in the low-90s when the Twins signed him and last season it averaged 95 mph while topping out in the high-90s. He moved from Double- to Triple-A and was the organization’s lone participant in the Futures Game. He posted career highs in K/9, WHIP, and ERA. His season was cut short by a shoulder injury, but the Twins believe he is healthy and ready to produce in 2022. Minnesota’s plan for Winder is to start him as a long reliever, but he will continue to work as a starter later in the season. Expanded rosters to start the season allow teams to carry more pitching, but the Twins need to avoid not using Winder. Last season, Randy Dobnak was pushed from the rotation to long relief, but the club didn’t get him regular use at the season’s start. Look for Winder to be used as a piggy-back starter for others in the rotation that may not be able to go more than four innings. When roster sizes decrease, Winder will likely head to St. Paul to get further stretched out as a starter. It’s imperative for the team to get off to a good start. Last season, fans saw the bullpen struggle to begin the year and it impacted the remainder of the season. Minnesota wants to avoid a repeat of that performance in 2022 and Winder can be one of the arms to help Minnesota start the year on the right foot. What are your memories of Winder’s time as a prospect? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

With the team coming off a big Sunday win, the Twins can turn their attention to the series finale with the Mariners. Dylan Bundy is scheduled to make his Minnesota debut, so what can fans look for when he takes the mound. Minnesota signed Bundy to add depth to a pitching staff that had no veteran presence at the time. The 29-year-old spent the last two years pitching in the Angels rotation with some up and down moments. Last season he posted a 6.06 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP in 90 2/3 innings. However, his 2020 campaign was his best as a big leaguer as he posted career-best totals in ERA (3.29), WHIP (1.03), K/9 (9.9), and BB/9 (0.7). He finished in the top-10 for the AL Cy Young, so how can the Twins get that version of Bundy? Off-Speed Pitch Usage One of the most significant changes in Bundy's repertoire last season was a switch in his off-speed pitch usage. During his breakout 2020 campaign, he used his slider 25% of the time, his changeup 21% of the time, and his sinker 8% of the time. His slider usage dropped nearly 4% last season, but the most significant change was with his sinker, which went up to 17.3% and became his third most used pitch. Bundy's sinker was not very effective, so it's interesting that he used that pitch so regularly. Batters posted a .609 SLG when facing this pitch, which was over 100 points higher than any of his other pitches. His changeup was the pitch that saw the most considerable decrease in use last season, but he held batters to a .441 SLG against that pitch. Minnesota's coaching staff had all spring for him to concentrate on his pitch usage, and it seems likely for the club to want him to use more sliders and fewer sinkers. Keep the Ball in the Park Outside of 2020, Bundy posted a home run rate north of 1.4 HR/9 in every season. He cut that number in half during the shortened 2020 campaign as batters struggled to barrel up the ball. During that season, Bundy posted career-best totals in Barrel %, Hard Hit % and average exit velocity. For the first time in his career, he did an excellent job limiting home runs, which can be tricky for a flyball pitcher. Minnesota's defense behind Bundy will be one of baseball's best, especially up the middle. Carlos Correa has already made multiple outstanding defensive plays in his limited time with the Twins. Byron Buxton can easily track down balls in the gap, which should help a flyball pitcher like Bundy. These defenders can't pull back every hard-hit home run, but they should help provide a solid defense to assist the team's pitching staff. Fastball Spin MLB cracked down on sticking substances last season, and some pitchers were impacted more than others. Bundy has ranked exceptionally well throughout his career in fastball spin, with him usually being in the 85th percentile or higher. One of his worst seasons for fastball spin was the 2020 campaign, when he ranked in the 80th percentile. Last season, his fastball spin was in the 89th percentile even though his velocity is below league average. Batters hit .237 with a .474 SLG against his fastball during the 2021 season. Bundy is a crucial cog in the Twins' plan for the 2022 season, and his success or failure will go a long way in deciding the team's playoff fortunes. What will you be watching for with Bundy? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Many of Minnesota's minor league affiliates began their 2022 seasons this week, which can get fans excited about the organization's future. Here is one potential breakout prospect for each minor league affiliate. Minor league rosters are fluid, and many of the players below will play at multiple levels during the 2022 campaign. Jose Miranda was the farm system's breakout prospect last season, but many in the organization predicted that improvements were imminent. So, who are some players to follow at each level to start the year? Triple-A: Royce Lewis, SS Minnesota stacked the Triple-A roster with some of the team's top prospects, including Jordan Balazovic, Cole Sands, and Jose Miranda. For good reasons, many prospect rankings have dropped Lewis. Baseball America dropped him 53 spots, MLB Pipeline dropped him 29 spots, and Baseball Prospectus took him out of their top-100. Entering the 2022 season, Lewis hadn't seen game action since the 2019 Arizona Fall League. His speed is one of his best tools, and there were questions about how much his knee surgery would impact this skill. Lewis is looking to prove his doubters wrong this season and put his name back into the conversation as one of baseball's best prospects. Double-A: Simeon Woods Richardson, SP Austin Martin, Matt Canterino, and Matt Wallner are all on the Wichita roster, but Woods Richardson is poised to breakout. Toronto and Minnesota were aggressive with Woods Richardson last season as he made 15 appearances at the Double-A level last season as a 20-year-old. He was over 4.5 years younger than the average age of the competition at his level, and he only had four at-bats where he faced a younger batter. He will still be young for Double-A in his first full season in the Twins organization, but now he has had the opportunity to get out some of the kinks. Also, he is in his third organization since the start of the 2018 season. Staying at a level and getting used to a coaching staff can help him thrive in 2022. High-A: Yunior Severino, IF Cedar Rapids has a loaded roster with plenty of players with breakout potential. Aaron Sabato, Cade Povich, and Alerick Soularie will all look to make their mark this season. Severino is looking to have his first professional season with 100+ games, which has the potential to result in some strong numbers. Last season, he raised his OPS from .740 at Low-A to .907 at High-A. In 35 games with Cedar Rapids, he hit .321/.414/.493 (.907) with 16 extra-base hits. He struck out 125 times in 98 games, so that will be a number to watch. He ended the year with 29 doubles, and if a few more of those balls make it over the fence, he suddenly looks like a very intriguing prospect. Low-A: Steve Hajjar, SP In Fort Myers, there is a collection of young players with plenty of upside, including Noah Miller, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Keoni Cavaco. Hajjar's college experience means he has the chance to dominate in the lower levels of the minors. He has the potential to move quickly from Low-A to High-A and a chance of reaching Double-A by the season's end. There's no reason to rush him, but the Twins have already helped him make some promising mechanical adjustments. During the 2021 college season, his fastball averaged 90 mph, but the Twins have helped him add a little more velocity. He's also focused on his slider to try and help him improve against left-handed batters. Minnesota has a lot of young pitchers ready to debut this season, but Hajjar is a solid piece to have waiting in the wings for the years ahead. Which of these players is poised to breakout? Do you have other picks? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

With the trade of Taylor Rogers, the Twins are putting a lot of faith in some young bullpen arms. Jhoan Duran is one of those pitchers and his big-league career is just beginning, so here’s a look back at his time as a prospect. Duran originally signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks back in February 2015 out of the Dominican Republic. His professional debut came in the Dominican Summer League, where he posted a 3.25 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 63 2/3 innings. He struggled to strike out batters (6.2 K/9), but he was two years younger than the average age of the competition at his level. During the 2016 season, Duran made his stateside debut, but he was limited to seven starts. It was such a small sample size that it’s hard to read much into his 4.96 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He made his full-season debut during the 2017 season. In 62 1/3 innings at Low-A, he posted a 4.24 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP, but his K/9 was still below 6.4. His early career numbers didn’t exactly put him on the prospect map. As a 20-year-old in 2018, Duran moved up to High-A and struggled to transition to the next level. In 64 2/3 innings (15 starts), he allowed 34 earned runs, but his strikeout numbers were on the rise. After posting a 7.1 K/9 or lower in 2017, he posted a 9.9 K/9 while keeping his walk rate reasonably consistent. Scouts were starting to come around on Duran, and teams like Minnesota noticed. At the 2018 trade deadline, the Twins acquired Duran along with Gabriel Maciel and Ernie De La Trinidad for Eduardo Escobar’s expiring contract. Besides Duran, the other two players are no longer in the organization. Duran posted even better numbers after the trade at High-A as he tossed 36 innings with a 2.00 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and 11.0 K/9. As the 2018 season ended, he posted career-best totals in nearly every statistical category. While the 2018 season saw Duran emerge, the 2019 season is when he firmly established himself on the prospect map. As a 21-year-old, he reached Double-A while posting a 10.6 K/9. He pitched 115 innings with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He established himself as one of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects, and Baseball America had him ranked on their top-100 list. Duran’s development may have been impacted by the missed 2020 minor league season. Minnesota had added him to the 40-man roster leading into the season, allowing him to work at the team’s alternate site. His innings pitched increased in every professional season, so it would be interesting to see if a different scenario played out during the 2020 campaign. However, that didn’t happen, and Duran retook the mound in 2021. He made five appearances at Triple-A, and there were some electric moments as he hit triple-digits with his fastball. Unfortunately, he was limited to 16 innings due to an elbow strain, but he avoided surgery. Minnesota’s front office likely considered this when deciding to transition him to relief pitching in 2022. His triple-digit fastball and splinker combo can make him a dangerous relief option. His splinker is a pitch rarely seen in baseball, making it challenging for hitters to know how to attack it. As a reliever, he can ignore some of his less effective pitches and focus on his two best offerings. He was very successful this spring, but now he will need to prove he can translate this success to the big-league level. Baseball’s use of pitchers continues to evolve, and Duran can still provide value even if he isn’t used as a starter. In the wake of trading away the team’s current closer, it’s hard not to look at Duran and wonder if he can be the team’s closer in the future. What memories do you have of Duran’s time in the minors? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Opening Day is nearly here, and with it comes the excitement of every team having an opportunity to turn into a contender. Here are five bold predictions about the 2022 Minnesota Twins. Minnesota's goal this year is to go from worst to first in the AL Central. Many predictions below will need to happen if the Twins want to overshoot their projected preseason position. Players need to be healthy and perform at a high level, while young pitchers will need to join the pitching staff and avoid rookie struggles. 5. Minnesota will have multiple Gold Glove winners Minnesota's up-the-middle defense is among baseball's best, and the Twins have two former Platinum Glove winners on the roster. Carlos Correa was arguably baseball's best defender last season, as he posted baseball's highest SABR Defensive Index total. Like Correa, Buxton has won a Platinum Glove, but he hasn't been on the field enough to qualify in recent years. When healthy, he is arguably the best defensive center fielder in the game. Other players on the roster have the chance to be in the Gold Glove conversation. Jorge Polanco's defense made great strides in his shift to second. Alex Kirilloff is tremendous at first base if the team moves him out of a corner outfield spot. 4. Kenta Maeda pitches games in September Last September, Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery, which can mean an entire season away from baseball. One reason for optimism with Maeda's recovery is an adjustment made to his Tommy John surgery. Maeda had a brace added to the impacted elbow to speed up his recovery time. This newer development can cut the recovery time from the standard 12-16 months to 9-12 months. Nine months after his surgery puts him on the mound in June, while 12 months would be September. At the time of the surgery, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said he is "hopeful for sure" that the right-hander will see the mound next year. Maeda can provide a late-season boost to the pitching staff that can help amid a pennant chase. 3. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton will finish in the top-10 for AL MVP Many consider Buxton a dark-horse candidate for AL MVP, but the hype surrounding his 2022 season is real. His contract extension also includes incentives for him finishing in the MVP voting. Buxton has an opportunity to establish himself as baseball's best centerfielder. Correa has been a perennial MVP candidate when he is healthy. Because of his unique contract, he can re-enter free agency next winter, so he has an incentive to have a career year. If both players are in the MVP conversation, Minnesota will have to be in the playoff hunt, which has to get fans excited for 2022. 2. Max Kepler gets traded before the trade deadline Max Kepler is under team control through 2024, so his trade value may never be higher than in 2022. Outfield depth is one of Minnesota's strengths, so the team may be able to trade for an area of need. Trevor Larnach is at Triple-A, and the team still has faith in him to take over a full-time role at the big-league level. Austin Martin may also shift to an outfield spot, especially if the team deems him ready. Will the Twins need more starting pitching at the deadline? Can a bullpen upgrade put the team on a path to postseason success? Kepler might be the player needed to make a deadline deal. 1. The streak ends Minnesota hasn't won a playoff game in nearly two decades. The streak ends this season, and it will be exciting to see how far this team can go. Which bold prediction do you think is most likely to come to fruition? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Last season, fans grew frustrated as veterans J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker struggled through multiple turns in the rotation. Will Chris Archer get the same kind of leash in 2022? Entering the 2021 season, the Twins had a clear plan for the club’s rotation. Kenta Maeda and José Berríos sat at the top of the rotation and were coming off tremendous 2020 seasons. J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker signed later in the offseason to add a veteran presence to the back of the rotation. On paper, the moves seemed justifiable as the team was coming off of back-to-back AL Central titles, and the front office had earned a level of trust from the fanbase. Unfortunately, not much went right for the 2021 Twins. Happ started 19 games in Minnesota and posted a 6.77 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP before being traded at the deadline. Shoemaker’s results were even worse as he accumulated an 8.06 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP while allowing 15 home runs in 16 appearances. He ended up being demoted to Triple-A and eventually released. With few other starting options, the Twins were forced to keep trotting out both of these pitchers even while each was struggling. It was tough to watch in a disappointing season. Flashforward to 2022, and Twins fans may have trepidation when it comes to any veteran pitcher. However, Chris Archer doesn’t fit the same mold as Happ and Shoemaker did in 2021. Last year’s veteran duo needed to be good for the team to have a chance to contend, and that didn’t happen. With no minor league season in 2020, many of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects weren’t going to be ready to contribute. That isn’t the case this season, as Archer may feel the team’s top prospects breathing down his neck from St. Paul. Before signing Archer, Josh Winder had the upper hand to win the final rotation spot. Because of the shorter spring training, many teams must be creative in how they handle their pitching staff early in the season. Randy Dobnak’s injury forced the team to reevaluate the roster, and Archer’s signing is a result of the team needing more starting pitching depth. Archer’s deal is very incentive-based, so the Twins don’t have as much of a financial commitment as they did with Happ’s $8 million deal last winter. There were plenty of rumors of the Twins looking to trade for other starting pitching, but those rumors didn’t come to fruition. Minnesota’s investment in Archer looks like a fallback option with the potential for there to still be some upside. Archer has been a great pitcher in the past, but there is a reason he was available this late in the winter. From Minnesota’s perspective, there are a few different scenarios that play out in the team’s favor. The first scenario is that Archer pitches well enough to stay in the rotation for the first couple of months of the season. That gets the team into June, when more of the team’s pitching prospects may be ready to contribute. At that time, the team can reevaluate what role Archer plays moving forward. Maybe Archer will have a renaissance season and surprise the baseball world, but his recent track record doesn’t point to this being a reality. Another scenario can play out where Minnesota’s young pitching is throwing so well in the minors that they push Archer out of the rotation. Jordan Balazovic, Cole Sands, and Drew Strotman all project to be in St. Paul’s starting rotation, with Winder pitching out of the bullpen at the MLB level. The front office has tremendous faith in their young pitching, and this is the year the pipeline may pay dividends at the big-league level. As a backup plan, Archer has some upside, and he certainly has something to prove. Hopefully, Minnesota learned something from last year’s debacle with veteran starting pitching. This may make Archer’s time in Minnesota a little shorter, but that can be forgotten if the team gets back to its winning ways. How long do you think Archer pitches in the Twins rotation? Should the team have a short leash with him? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article