Cody Christie

The Twins always seem to be searching for starting pitching. One solution to that problem is to lock up young starting pitching, and Joe Ryan is an intriguing extension candidate. Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports 2022 Recap: Ryan joined the Twins at the 2021 trade deadline and made five starts at the season's end with 30 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. It was an impressive start to his big-league career, raising expectations for his 2022 campaign. All three national prospect rankings had him on their top-100 lists entering the season. During spring training, Rocco Baldelli named Ryan the Opening Day starter, which added pressure to the start of his rookie campaign. Ryan ended up leading the Twins starters in innings pitched, K/9, and WHIP. Only Dylan Bundy started more games than Ryan, and only two pitchers (Jhoan Duran and Sonny Gray) ranked higher than him in WAR. Still, his rookie campaign was impressive, with a 109 ERA+. His Hard Hit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and K% all ranked in the 63rd percentile or higher. He surpassed his career high in innings by nearly 25, and his strikeout rate jumped from 7.9 to 10.7 K/9 in the second half. Ryan's lack of secondary pitch usage was one of the most significant issues in his minor league numbers. He was able to dominate hitters with a fastball up in the zone which resulted in some high strikeout totals. Last year, he used his four-seam fastball around 60% of the time, but his slider's development helped keep hitters off balance. Batters hit .245 against his slider but slugged nearly .500 against it. However, the xSLG versus his slider was 143 points lower, so that might point to luck from batters against that pitch. If Ryan wants to be a top-tier starter, he will need to continue refining his secondary offerings. Current Contract: Ryan is in an interesting spot because he didn't debut until age 25. The Twins currently have team control of Ryan through the 2027 season when he'd be 32 years old. In fact, he won't be arbitration eligible until the 2025 season. A lot can happen with a pitcher over the next half of a decade before he reaches free agency. Injuries and poor performance can impact even the best young pitchers, but Ryan and the Twins are at an interesting point in his career. Contract Proposal: Ryan has yet to make life-changing money in his career. As a seventh-round pick, his signing bonus was $147,500, and he will make close to the league minimum ($700,000) until he reaches arbitration. Last season, Braves rookie pitcher Spencer Strider signed a six-year, $75 million deal that includes option years. He will make $1 million in each of the next two seasons and $4 million in 2025. His salary will jump to $20 million in 2026 and then move to $22 million for the final two guaranteed years. Atlanta also holds a $22 million option with a $5 million buyout for 2029. Atlanta has been aggressive with signing their young players, and it is undoubtedly a strategy the Twins could explore. However, Strider had a historic rookie season, while Ryan didn't pitch to that level. A more reasonable option for Ryan could be six years, $31 million with the following structure. 2023: $1m (1.033) - Age 27 2024: $2m (2.033) - Age 28 2025: $3m (3.033 - 1st Arb) - Age 29 2026: $5m (4.033 - 2nd Arb) - Age 30 2027: $7.5m (5.033 - 3rd Arb) - Age 31 2028: $10m (6.033 - FA) - Age 32 2029: $18m option (with $2.5m buyout) - 2nd FA - Age 33 This deal adds two extra years of team control and guarantees Ryan a lot of money at an early juncture in his career. Would the Twins consider this kind of offer for a young pitcher? Would Ryan accept this kind of deal? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER EXTENSION CANDIDATES - Sonny Gray - Luis Arraez View full article

Blayne Enlow was once considered one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects. Now, he is entering the most pivotal season of his professional career, where he needs to put himself back on the prospect map. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Minnesota drafted Blayne Enlow in the third round of the 2017 MLB Draft from high school in Louisiana. He received a $2 million signing bonus to coax him out of his commitment to Louisiana State University. After signing, the Twins assigned him to the GCL Twins and saw immediate results. In 20 1/3 innings, he allowed three earned runs with a 19-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Twins were aggressive with Enlow in 2018 by sending him to Cedar Rapids, where he was almost three years younger than the average age of the competition. For the season, he only faced younger batters in 13 plate appearances. In 94 innings, he posted a 3.26 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. He allowed a hit per inning, and his 6.8 K/9 was low, but there were other positives to work on as he climbed the organizational ladder. Enlow began the 2019 season back at Low-A, where he saw his strikeout rate improve to 9.6 K/9. In eight starts, he had a 4.57 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP. Most of his struggles were tied to his home run rate jumping from 0.4 HR/9 to 0.9 HR/9. He continued to make improvements after being promoted to High-A. Across 69 1/3 innings, his ERA dropped to 3.38, and his H/9 dropped below 8.0 for the first time since rookie ball. Enlow was holding his own while being young for his level. Unfortunately, Enlow faced some challenges over the next two seasons. Like many players, he missed a critical year of development with no minor league season in 2020. Enlow worked to refine his delivery during the shutdown, and he started the 2021 season with something to prove. His strikeout rate jumped to 14.1 K/9 through his first three starts while limiting opponents to three earned runs. Shortly into the season, he threw a bullpen, and his velocity was down. Eventually, the organization discovered that he had a torn UCL and needed Tommy John surgery. Enlow missed the remainder of 2021 but returned to the mound in May 2022, 11 months after his surgery. Also, the Twins thought highly enough of Enlow to add him to the 40-man roster even though he’d be returning from injury. In 25 appearances (11 starts), he posted a 4.73 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. He posted the highest H/9 and BB/9 of his career, but it can take time for a pitcher to return to his previous form following Tommy John. Last season, Enlow pitched the entire year at Double-A, where he was still young for his level. He is likely to return to Double-A this season now that he is further removed from his procedure. 40-man roster spots are valuable, so Enlow needs to get closer to the player he was before surgery. The Twins will likely need pitching depth in 2023, and Enlow’s presence on the 40-man roster makes it more likely that he will make his big-league debut. If Enlow struggles, the Twins will need his roster spot for other players. Enlow’s 2023 season will be intriguing for fans to watch. He is part of the team’s pitching pipeline, but questions remain about his future. Can he regain his form as a top prospect? Or will he end the season in another organization? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Luis Arraez is coming off a season where he won the AL Batting Title and a Silver Slugger. Do the Twins want Arraez to be part of the team's long-term core? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, USA TODAY Sports Minnesota has multiple items on its offseason checklist, including finding a shortstop, upgrading the offense, and adding to the bullpen. It's also the time of year when teams can approach players about long-term extensions. The Twins have kept their payroll clean for multiple years into the future, and now is the time to capitalize on the organization's flexibility. 2022 Recap: Minnesota originally signed Luis Arraez back in 2013, so the 2022 season marked his ninth season in the Twins organization. As a prospect, Arraez showed signs of the type of hitter he'd become at the big-league level. In nearly 370 minor league games, he batted over .330 and got on base over 38.5% of the time. His limited power and lack of defense skills dropped him on prospect rankings, but his hit tool has followed him throughout the organization. During the 2022 season, he played in over 125 games for the first time in his career, which helped him to qualify for many of the accolades he received at the season's conclusion. His first half was tremendous as he hit .338/.411/.445 (.856) on the way to his first All-Star Game selection. There were second-half struggles as he fought through injuries. In 60 games, his batting average dropped to .289 with a .715 OPS. Clearly, he wanted to stay on the field to fight for the batting title and kept Aaron Judge from achieving the Triple Crown. Besides his All-Star Game appearance, Arraez has been honored with multiple awards since the season concluded. He became the inaugural winner of the Silver Slugger for utility players as he beat out Shohei Ohtani for the honor. At Twins Daily, Arraez beat out Carlos Correa for the team MVP honor. He was also the only Twins player to receive votes for the AL MVP as he finished 13th overall. Current Contract: Arraez was arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2022 as he accumulated enough service time to be designated a Super-Two player. He earned $2.125 million last season, and the Twins have team control over him through the 2025 season. MLB Trade Rumors projects Arraez to make $5 million through the arbitration process this season. He's starting to get expensive, and this might be the best time for the Twins to lock him up long-term. Contract Proposal: The Twins control Arraez through his age-27 season, so the front office needs to decide what value he provides the team in his late-20s and early-30s. The 25-year-old already doesn't have a defensive home while fighting multiple injuries in his career. The Twins will have younger and cheaper options with a similar skill set when Arraez is no longer under team control. That being said, his hit tool should age well, and the Twins may want him as a veteran leader in the future. Over the last two seasons, FanGraphs says Arraez provided the Twins $38 million in value. It seems unlikely for the club to offer him an extension that pays him near the value he has provided, but the team can be creative. Minnesota bought out free agent years from Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco by providing both players with guaranteed money. Both deals look like very team-friendly deals in retrospect, and it will be interesting to see if the Twins can do something similar with Arraez. Kepler and Polanco can provide a blueprint for a deal that might work for Arraez and the Twins. Polanco was guaranteed $25.75 million with options that could make it worth $47.25 million. Kepler's contract was worth $35 million with an option that takes the total value to $44 million. Would Arraez sign a contract that pays him $50-55 million for five years? This type of contract gives the Twins some cost certainty while also allowing Arraez to get life-changing money. Do the Twins want Arraez past his age-28 season? What kind of deal can keep him in Minnesota? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER EXTENSION CANDIDATES - Sonny Gray View full article

Minnesota traded Gio Urshela last week and handed Jose Miranda the third base job. So, what does the upper minors' depth chart look like at the hot corner? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Gio Urshela was one of Minnesota's most consistent players in 2022, but that didn't guarantee him a spot on the 2023 roster. Comments from the front office at the season's end pointed to them wanting to hand the reins to Jose Miranda after a strong rookie campaign. Offensively, Miranda struggled down the stretch, but he was one of the organization's top prospects entering the season. His future's still bright, but where will the Twins turn if he struggles or gets injured? MLB Options: Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Luis Arraez Minnesota is entering the season with Miranda penciled in as the starting third baseman. He isn't the strongest defender, so Miranda will likely see time at first base and designated hitter. Last season, he played over 70% of his innings at first base, but Urshela's presence forced the Twins to use the better defender at the hot corner. Last week, the Twins also acquired Farmer in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds. During the 2022 season, Farmer played 74% of his defensive innings at shortstop, but he started 35 games at third base. At shortstop, only two qualified players had a lower SDI total than Farmer. He posted -2 defensive runs saved at third base with a 0.1 UZR. He has defensive flexibility, but he currently projects as the team's starting shortstop. Arraez is coming off a season where he won the AL Batting Title and a Silver Slugger as a utility player. The Twins likely want Arraez to move back to the utility spot to try and keep him healthier than last season. During the 2021 season, Arraez played over 400 innings at third, but the presence of better defenders meant he was limited to fewer than 45 innings last season. Nick Gordon can fill in at third base in a pinch, but he saw very limited innings at the position last season. Triple-A Options: Andrew Bechtold, Yunior Severino, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee Bechtold played over 80 innings at four defensive positions in 2022, but third base was the lone position he logged over 400 innings. In 123 games, he hit .233/.329/.400 (.729) with 16 doubles and 19 home runs. Severino split time between second and third base last season while reaching Double-A. He's been limited to fewer than 100 games in two consecutive seasons, but he posted a .907 OPS during the 2022 campaign. Neither player is on the 40-man roster, so that adds an extra wrinkle if they are needed at the big-league level. Fans can debate whether Lewis or Lee is the Twins' top prospect, but both can fit into the team's future plans at third base. Lewis is out following his second ACL surgery until the middle of the 2023 season. He has played 21 defensive innings at third base in his professional career. Lee's played shortstop since the Twins drafted him with the eighth overall pick, but many project him to move off the position. Lee likely starts the year at Double-A, but the Twins showed last season that they would be aggressive with his promotions, especially with his college experience. Double-A Options: Edouard Julien, Seth Gray, Jake Rucker Julien was one of Minnesota's breakout prospects in the 2022 season, and he'd likely get a big-league shot before the other minor-league options on this list. He played 113 games at Double-A last season and hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. His success continued in the Arizona Fall League, where MLB recently named him the AFL's Breakout Player of the Year. Julien hasn't played a lot of innings at third in the minors, but his bat will perform at any defensive position. Minnesota took Gray in the fourth round of the 2019 Draft, and he spent most of 2022 at High-A. In Cedar Rapids, he had a .740 OPS with 31 extra-base hits in 113 games. He splits time between both corner infield positions, but he likely needs more upper-minor experience. Rucker played at three levels last season, even getting a short stint at Triple-A. Last season, he made 47 starts at third base, the position he played most regularly in college. In 124 games, he hit .236/.333/.378 (.711) with 25 doubles, six triples, and nine home runs. Who do you think the Twins will turn to if Miranda struggles or gets injured? Does Minnesota have enough depth at third base? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Many consider Sonny Gray the Twins' best pitcher, so what will it cost to keep him in Minnesota? Does a long-term extension make sense for both parties? Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel, USA Today Sports Minnesota has multiple items on its offseason checklist, including finding a shortstop, upgrading the offense, and adding to the bullpen. It's also the time of year when teams can approach players about long-term extensions. The Twins have kept their payroll clean for multiple years into the future, and now is the time to capitalize on the organization's flexibility. 2022 Recap: Minnesota traded for Sonny Gray and Francis Peguero during the last offseason by parting with their 2021 first-round pick, Chase Petty. At the time, it was easy to see the logic from the Twins' perspective. Petty was multiple years away from impacting the big-league level, and high school arms are never a guarantee. Gray was an established veteran with multiple years of team control. Minnesota's winning window was still open, and Gray helped solidify the top of the rotation. Gray's first season in Minnesota didn't go perfectly, but he was near the top of the team in multiple pitching categories. In 24 starts, he posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a 117-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Some minor injuries hampered him at different points and limited him to his fewest number of starts since 2016 outside of the COVID shortened campaign. His improved on field performance might be related to changes instituted after he joined the Twins organization. For the first time in three seasons, Gray's four-seam fastball was his most utilized pitch. In 2021, he used his sinker nearly 30% of the time, while his curveball was his most utilized pitch in the shortened 2020 season. During the 2022 season, he utilized all three pitches over 24% of the time. Batters posted a wOBA above .300 when facing his four-seamer and sinker, but his curveball resulted in a .232 wOBA and a 25 Whiff%. All three of his top pitches resulted in a negative run value for opponents for the first time since 2019. Current Contract: Gray's current contract was completed as part of his trade to the Reds from the Yankees. With Minnesota exercising the final option year, the contract's total value will be five years and $50.7 million. He has never reached free agency even though he has ten years in the big leagues as part of four organizations. He's made over $60 million in his career, and next off-season will be his first chance to hit the free agent market. Contract Proposal: The 2023 season may add clarity for the Twins to decide if they want to try and extend Gray. Minnesota is likely fine paying the 33-year-old an annual salary of around $12 million if he continues to perform. Last winter, Steven Matz signed for four years and $44 million, while Yusei Kikuchi inked a three-year, $36 million deal. Both those pitchers are younger than Gray, but his track record is better. Gray and the Twins will have to find a middle ground that balances his age and the length of the contract. As baseball moves further from the pandemic, player contracts will start rising again because of a revenue influx. Paying $12-14 million per season for an aging Gray isn't the worst proposition, especially as $100 million contracts are handed out to the top-tier starters. Gray also might be more willing to stay in Minnesota depending on what the club adds during the rest of this off-season. He also voiced some frustration last season about not going deeper into games, but starting pitcher usage continues to evolve. Does a three-year, $40 million contract keep Gray in Minnesota, or will it cost more than that? How high would you be willing to go for a starter entering their mid-30s? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Plenty of big bats can help the Twins in 2023, but Minnesota's best-hitting prospect is likely a few years away from Target Field. Let's explore Emmanuel Rodriguez and his professional career so far. Image courtesy of William Parmeter- Mighty Mussels Rightfully, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee get much of the Twins organization's focus. An argument can be made for either player being the team's top prospect, but both may graduate off prospect lists by next offseason. Enter Emmanuel Rodriguez and a bat that might have the power to change the Twins organization. Rodriguez was considered one of the top available international prospects during the 2019-20 international signing period. Minnesota signed him for $2.75 million, but it took some time for the organization to know what they had in Rodriguez. During the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he participated in fall instructional leagues while dealing with a hand injury. His professional debut came in 2021, and he quickly made an impact. Many international prospects get their start in foreign summer leagues, but Rodriguez made his professional debut in the Florida Complex League. As an 18-year-old, he hit .214/.346/.524 (.870), including ten home runs in 37 games. After striking out 56 times in 126 at-bats, Minnesota worked to adjust his swing by keeping the bat in the zone longer so he could make consistent contact. These adjustments were evident during the 2022 season as he made his full-season debut. The 2022 campaign was a breakout season for Rodriguez. In 47 games, he hit .272/.493/.552 (1.044) with 17 extra-base hits and more walks (57) than strikeouts (52). He went 11-for-16 in stolen base attempts and made the majority of his defensive appearances in center field. His numbers were even more impressive considering he was a 19-year-old in the Florida State League. Only three of his at-bats came against younger pitchers. Unfortunately, his season ended in June after he tore his meniscus, which required surgery. It was a tough way for his season to end, but his ceiling continues to be among the highest in the Twins organization. Rodriguez had surgery in mid-June, and expectations were that he would follow that with 3-4 months of rehab. This timetable should put him on a path to easily be ready for the start of spring training in 2023. Minnesota's coaches worked to improve his swing, which impacted his breakout season, and now his rehab may allow him to continue making adjustments. He's very good at hitting the ball in the zone but has shown a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone. The injury may also give him time to add more muscle, giving him more power as he climbs the organizational ladder. Defensively, some question whether or not Rodriguez will be able to stick as a center fielder. Minnesota will continue to use him in center in the coming years, but he started four games in right field last season. His arm might be his best tool at this point, and that will play from any outfield position. As he returns from a knee injury, it will be interesting to see if his speed is impacted, especially if he has added more muscle to his frame. Rodriguez is a player that fans can get excited about, but he likely will make his debut in 2024 or later. There are a lot of steps left for him to climb, and some prospects can struggle in the minors' upper levels. For now, his ceiling is one of the highest in the organization as the Twins watch his big bat continue to develop. What are your expectations for Rodriguez? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota is lucky to have two of baseball’s best-position player prospects, but who should rank as the team’s top prospect entering the 2023 season? Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita, USA Today (Lewis), Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Lee) Many national outlets will rank Brooks Lee as Minnesota’s top prospect entering the 2023 season. However, Royce Lewis still sits in the top spot here at Twins Daily. The franchise’s long-term performance is tied to both players. Arguments can put both players in the top spot, so let’s examine what separates these two players from each other. Arguments for Brooks Lee Minnesota drafted Lee with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, and the club had to be surprised that Lee was still on the board. Entering the draft, evaluators considered him the best collegiate bat, and he showcased that ability in his professional debut. Lee got his feet wet in four games with the FCL Twins before skipping Low-A and heading to Cedar Rapids. In 25 games with the Kernels, he hit .289/.395/.454 (.848) with four doubles and four home runs. But Cedar Rapids wouldn’t be his final stop, since the Twins' Double-A team, the Witchita Wind Surge, was heading for the playoffs. Lee was over three years younger than the average age of the competition at Double-A, but he was indeed able to hold his own. He helped Wichita make a run to the Texas League Championship before the team eventually fell short of the title. It was an impressive start to his professional career, and there is plenty of optimism surrounding his future. Lee is a switch-hitter with a tremendous ability to make consistent contact. In 115 collegiate games, he had more walks (64) than strikeouts (63). He has shown the ability to drive the ball to all fields, and he will likely improve his power numbers as he continues to mature. His dad is a college coach, so he has grown up around the game, which will help him continue to rise through the Twins system. The Twins drafted Lee as a shortstop, and there is some thought that he will need to move to third base when he adds more muscle to his frame. If Lee isn't going to be a shortstop at the big-league level, that's why some rank Lewis as a higher prospect. Arguments for Royce Lewis The Twins took Lewis with the number one overall pick back in 2017. A lot of pressure comes with being selected 1-1, but Lewis continues to show promise. The pandemic and a torn ACL meant he didn’t play in a competitive game for over two years. He returned from injury in 2022 and made a strong first impression at the Triple-A level. In 34 games, he hit .300/.405/.534 (.940) with 12 doubles, a triple, and five home runs. Some may have thought his knee surgery would hamper his speed, but he was successful in 12-of-14 stolen base attempts. It certainly looked like Lewis was ready for the big-league level. When a pitch hit Carlos Correa, it looked like the Twins may need to turn shortstop over to Lewis for multiple months. Instead, Correa didn’t suffer any broken bones, and Lewis made a brief but impactful debut. In 12 games, he went 12-for-40 (.300 BA) with four doubles and two home runs. Unfortunately, he crashed into the center field wall, tearing his ACL for the second consecutive season. Lewis will not be ready to start the season, which has the Twins searching for other shortstop options. His defense has significantly improved since joining the Twins organization, with some evaluators thinking he can stick at shortstop in the big leagues. There is no way to know how he will respond to a second ACL surgery, but he lost little speed from the first surgery. Minnesota will test the free agent waters this winter for one of the top shortstops, but the front office may also be comfortable with Lewis being the shortstop of the future. Currently, I have Lee ranked higher than Lewis because of his age and potentially elite bat. Who do you think is Minnesota’s top prospect? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Miguel Sano has likely played his last game in Minnesota, which leaves behind a cloudy Twins legacy. Is he the biggest disappointment of the last 30 years? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Miguel Sano has been a member of the Twins organization since he was a teenager. Minnesota declined his option earlier this week, meaning he will be a free agent for the first time in his career. Sano has been a polarizing figure throughout his Twins' tenure for various reasons. That being said, he is far from being the biggest disappointment of the last three decades. Over at Bring Me the News, the site attempted to rank the biggest disappointments since the Twins' last World Series title in 1991. For a franchise that has lost 18-straight playoff games, there is plenty of blame to go around. Failed top prospects made the list, like Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, and Adam Johnson, along with signings like Byung-Ho Park, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, and Josh Donaldson. Frustrations followed many of these players, but none of them had an impact quite like Miguel Sano. Sano dominated the minor leagues on the way to making his big-league debut. In 504 games in the minors, he posted a .938 OPS with some dominant home run totals. In 2011, he hit 20 home runs in 66 games for Elizabethton. Over the next two seasons, he averaged more than 30 homers per year as he climbed up to Double-A. All three national top-100 lists had him in their top-15 prospects entering the 2014 season, but he missed that entire season with Tommy John surgery. Expectations were high, and he began to fulfill those lofty projections in 2015. During his rookie season, Sano hit .269/.385/.530 (.916) with 17 doubles and 18 home runs in 80 games. At the season's end, he finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor. Over the next two seasons, he settled into a big-league role by averaging 26 home runs per season with a 117 OPS+. Sano became a first-time All-Star in 2017 and finished runner-up in the Home Run Derby. It looked like a solid start to his career. Sano had up-and-down moments over the next five seasons. He hit 30 or more home runs in two seasons and had a 116 OPS+ for his career. Since the franchise moved to Minnesota, only Harmon Killebrew and Justin Morneau have a higher slugging percentage. His average exit velocity and max exit velocity routinely ranked among baseball's sixth percentile or higher. Few players in Twins history have slugged the ball like Sano. Fans are going to remember some of the lows throughout Sano's career. During the 2018 season, Sano struggled so much that the organization sent him to Fort Myers to rebuild his swing. If that wasn't the low point in his career, the 2022 season added to fan frustration. His final Twins season saw him go 5-for-60 (.083 BA) with 25 strikeouts. Recency bias means that his 2022 failures are the likely memory that will stick with fans long-term. Sano didn't develop into the next Miguel Cabrera, but that doesn't mean his Twins tenure was a total loss. Players of his skill set are limited in the value they can provide. He was never going to provide a lot of value on the defensive side of the ball, so he needed to be above average at the plate. His powerful swing produced mammoth home runs, and there were moments in nearly every season where he was the hottest-hitting bat in the Twins line-up. Did he fulfill his projections as one of baseball's top-10 prospects? No, but sustained success at the big-league level is challenging for many players. Sano still has a powerful swing that can help a team to win games, especially with the addition of the designated hitter in the National League. His career is far from over, and there have been far more disappointing players over the last three decades. Were you disappointed with Sano's Twins' tenure? Have other players been more disappointing over the last thirty years? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota’s current front office regime has tended to rely on internal options to bolster the bullpen. Will any of these prospects join the big-league squad as relievers in 2023? Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports In recent years, the front office has shied away from investing in bullpen options. Joe Smith was the team’s lone free agent signing last winter, and he wasn’t on the club by the season’s end. Minnesota also traded away Taylor Rogers on the eve of Opening Day for Emilio Pagan and Chris Paddack. Jhoan Duran became the team’s top reliever after being a former top prospect. Can any of these players follow in Duran’s footsteps in 2023? Triple-A: Ronny Henriquez (ETA: 2022), Austin Schulfer (ETA: 2023), Evan Sisk (ETA: 2023) Henriquez made his big-league debut in 2022 as a reliever, but the club may still utilize him as a starter in 2023. He split time between both roles at Triple-A last season, and all his big-league innings came as a reliever. As a 22-year-old, there is still time for development, and the Twins hope he can continue to stick as a starter. Schulfer dominated Double-A last season before running into some trouble at Triple-A. He only allowed one earned run in 15 appearances before his promotion. In a six-game span at Triple-A, he allowed nine earned runs and a .982 OPS in 6 2/3 innings to inflate his overall numbers. The 26-year-old struck out nearly ten batters per nine innings for the season and had a 1.04 WHIP. Sisk was one of the most successful left-handed pitchers in the Twins organization last season. The 25-year-old made 50 appearances between Double- and Triple-A with a 1.57 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He posted a 10.9 K/9 and held lefties to a .286 OPS in over 106 at-bats. Surprisingly, he didn’t get an opportunity during the 2022 season, but he should fit into the team’s plans during 2023. Double-A: Denny Bentley (ETA: 2023), Steven Cruz (ETA: 2024), Osiris German (ETA: 2024), Francis Peguero (ETA: 2024) Bentley spent time at High- and Double-A last season while posting a 3.56 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, so the Twins sent him to the AFL to build off his solid season. Unfortunately, the AFL is a very hitter-friendly environment, and Bentley has struggled with command. The 24-year-old has walked 14 batters in 11 1/3 innings, but it is a small sample size. Cruz (23yo) and German (24yo) were a year and a half younger than the competition at Double-A this season, and both were given the opportunity to pitch in late-inning situations. In his final 34 appearances (50 innings), Cruz had a 3.35 ERA and 51 strikeouts while holding batters to a .680 OPS. German posted a 3.02 ERA with 9.9 K/9 in 43 appearances. Both players should get more time at Double-A before moving up the ladder. Minnesota acquired Peguero from the Reds as part of the Sonny Gray trade. Injuries limited him to 17 appearances at Double-A in 2022, so the team sent him to the AFL. In 11 innings, he has posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP and 7.4 K/9. High-A: Hunter McMahon (ETA: 2024) Minnesota acquired McMahon back in 2020 from the Nationals for Ryne Harper. As a 24-year-old, he broke out and pitched at three different levels last season. He pitched 70 innings (39 appearances), between Low- and High-A, with a 1.67 ERA with batters hitting .171/.219/.296 (.515) against him. He struggled in a brief taste of Double-A by allowing multiple earned runs in three of his four appearances. To be even more successful, McMahon needs to see his strikeout totals continue to improve. Obviously, there are plenty of relievers throughout the Twins system that aren’t mentioned above. Other starting pitching prospects might shift to bullpen roles if they can’t improve as starters. Some of the best relievers in franchise history (Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Taylor Rogers ) were failed starters that shifted to the bullpen and found their eventual ticket to the big leagues. Duran was used primarily as a starter throughout his professional career before dominating as a reliever last season. Overall, it can be tough to project an organization’s depth at reliever, especially as the role of the pitcher continues to evolve. How many of these relievers will get an opportunity in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins need to scour the free-agent market to upgrade the bullpen. One under-the-radar option may be a former Twin coming off a solid second half. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports In 2012, the Twins made a series of moves to rebuild a rotation that had struggled for two consecutive seasons. At the beginning of December, Minnesota sent Ben Revere to Philadelphia for starter Vance Worley and prospect Trevor May. Worley and Revere haven't played at the MLB level since 2017, so May will end up being the last active player associated with the deal. May debuted in 2014 as a starter for the Twins but struggled in his first taste of the majors. He allowed 40 earned runs in 45 2/3 innings (7.88 ERA) with 44 strikeouts and 22 walks. May started the 2015 season in Minnesota's rotation, and there continued to be ups and downs. He had a 4.37 ERA as opponents posted a .753 OPS in 15 starts. The Twins decided it was time for a change, and he moved to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. As he adjusted to his new role, May saw improved results. In 34 1/3 innings, he had a 3.15 ERA and a 39-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio while earning seven holds. The 2016 season marked May's first full year as a reliever, but he dealt with multiple injuries on the way to a 5.27 ERA in 44 appearances. Minnesota decided that May should switch back to a starter role heading into 2017, and his performance looked to have him on track to be the fifth starter. Unfortunately, an elbow injury meant he needed Tommy John surgery, and he missed the entire season. May returned in 2018 and became one of Minnesota's best relievers. From 2018-20, he made 113 appearances with a 3.19 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 113 innings. The Twins won over 100 games in 2019, and May was an integral bullpen piece on one of the best teams in Twins' history. Also, May struck out a career-high 14.7 batters per nine innings during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Following the campaign, May headed to free agency as one of the best available relievers, and the Mets signed him for two years and $15.5 million. His first season in New York was his best as he compiled a 3.59 ERA with an 11.9 K/9 in 68 appearances. May suffered multiple injuries during the 2022 season, including an arm injury and a triceps injury. He was limited to 26 starts, but he finished the year strongly. In his final 18 appearances (16 2/3 innings), he posted a 3.24 ERA (2.75 FIP) while striking out 25. When healthy, May proved he is still an effective big-league reliever. May used his slider and changeup more regularly in 2022 and saw improved results. He held batters to a .182 BA versus his slider and a .222 BA against his changeup. His four-seam fastball had been a dominant pitch for him in 2021, but his arm injuries this season made it less effective. Batter's slugging percentage increased from .371 in 2021 to .582 in 2022. May's results at the season's end might point to his fastball being back on track, and that can help him as he heads to free agency for the second time in his career. Now 33 years old, May is in a very different free agent position. He is likely looking for a one-year deal that pays significantly less than he made over the last two seasons. Relievers can be inconsistent, with some burning bright before quickly flickering out. Minnesota should consider adding him on a one-year deal that allows May to prove he can return to his dominant self. Does a reunion with Trevor May fit Minnesota's offseason plan? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

From the time he signed, it was widely expected that Carlos Correa would opt out of the final two years of his Twins contract. Now, it is official, and Correa is a free agent. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Twins fans have known this moment was coming for quite some time, but Carlos Correa officially opted out of the final two years remaining on his 3-year, $105 million deal. Correa and Scott Boras, his agent, knew what they were doing last winter. Correa switched to Boras because his previous agency was rumored to be losing its certification to represent MLB players. Now, he heads to free agency for the second straight offseason. With no lockout, he is now looking for his long-term deal. Where do we go from here? You can find out by downloading the "Future of Shortstop" chapter of the Offseason Handbook, now available for free to anyone with a registered Twins Daily account. 2022 Season Recap Correa's 2022 season started slowly, but his performance improved as the season progressed. In April, he hit .243/.309/.324 (.633) while he adjusted to a new organization for the first time in his career. Correa turned it on for May and June by posting a .954 OPS in 37 games. He missed time in June after testing positive for COVID-19, but his bat didn't slow down until later in the year. July was another poor month, as his .614 OPS was the lowest out of any month this season. Minnesota's lead in the AL Central was shrinking, but Correa turned it on for the most critical part of the season. The Twins couldn't overcome their massive injuries, but Correa performed his best in the season's final months. In his final 59 games, Correa hit .302/.402/.498 (.900) with ten doubles, a triple, and nine home runs. His Win Probability Added during this stretch was 1.67, as he came up with some clutch hits in big games. Some might say it didn't matter because the Twins fell out of the race, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Correa showed why he is one of baseball's best players, even with the rest of the line-up scuffling. Bound for Free Agency Correa made his opt-out decision clear as the season ended, giving fans a chance to examine the free-agent market. Minnesota has the payroll flexibility to sign a top free agent this winter, but there will be multiple suitors for Correa's services. He is also entering a free-agent market that includes four top-tier shortstops. Last winter, Corey Seager received a ten-year, $325 million contract that players like Correa will use as a starting point in their negotiations. That's a lot of money guaranteed to one player, especially considering Minnesota's payroll usually sits in the middle of the pack compared to other MLB teams. Minnesota's current front office has avoided giving out multi-year contracts unless they were team friendly. Top free-agent deals will have some dead money at the back end of the contract. It would be interesting to see if Minnesota could be creative with a Correa deal that includes a much higher average value at the deal's front end so the end of the contract is more palatable. That might be one of the only ways he stays with the Twins. Correa is one of baseball's top-15 position players in his career's prime. That type of player is usually out of reach for the Twins, but there is a slight chance he will stay in Minnesota for the long term. What do you think are the chances that Correa will resign with the Twins? How much do you think he will get as a free agent? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Like many ownership groups, the Pohlads are known to run their baseball team like a business. Do Jim Pohlad's recent comments point to the family being willing to spend more on the team? Image courtesy of David Berding-USA TODAY Sports Last weekend, the Pioneer Press posted a story written by long-time columnist Charlie Walters. In the piece, he interviewed Twins owner Jim Pohlad about various topics. The biggest takeaway regarded Carlos Correa and his impact on the Twins. Pohlad seemed open to Correa signing a new contract to stay in Minnesota long-term. "I'm totally on board with him coming back," said Pohlad. "Definitely. Absolutely. I love the guy. He's a huge asset and benefit to the team. But I don't know how it's going to go." Pohlad went on to suggest that it was expected for Scott Boras and Correa to test the free agent market again this winter. He called Boras an "aggressive" agent, but it's also unclear what kind of offers Correa will receive as one of baseball's top free agents. He didn't receive the type of offers he wanted last winter, but performed well in 2022 and gets a second chance to ink a long-term deal. The Athletic's Keith Law recently released his top 50 free agents for the upcoming offseason, and Correa sits at the top. Law explains that Correa "represents… a rare chance to get a superstar who plays a skill position and is still in his peak years." Trea Turner is the other top shortstop in the free agent class, but Correa is two years younger than Turner, and has a career WAR nearly 10 points higher. Minnesota won't be the only team interested in Correa's services, with many big-market teams looking for a shortstop. However, the Twins have the financial flexibility to add Correa with an offer close to what Corey Seager received last season (10 years, $325 million). By 2024, Byron Buxton's $15 million salary is the lone noticeable commitment for the team. If Pohlad truly wants Correa back, the Twins' front office can make it happen. Minnesota's current regime needs to make some critical decisions this winter, which may require franchise-changing moves. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have valued payroll flexibility, but the results have disappointed with losing records in each of the last two seasons. The Twins can look to the current Phillies as an example of a team that spent big on names like Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler before heading to a World Series. Star players can help carry a team through a season and into the playoffs. The AL Central is one of baseball's worst divisions, and Minnesota has the division's second-highest payroll. This winter, there has been a lot of discussion about the club's lack of attendance, but the team needs to start winning to bring back fans. Correa can be a big piece of the equation as he is a leader on and off the field. Do Pohlad's comments mean the team will spend more next season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins must make multiple moves if they want to contend in 2023. Here is the blueprint I would follow for the perfect offseason that sets up a rebound to contention. Image courtesy of Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's front office has a clear shopping list to improve the Twins for 2023. Shortstop is the team's most significant need, especially with Royce Lewis out until the season's second half. Luckily, there is a strong crop of free-agent options, but plenty of other teams could be looking for an upgrade at shortstop. Also, there is always room to add more frontline starting pitching and to supplement other spots on the roster (catcher, right-handed power bat). Here is how the Twins can address all of those needs. Lineup: Correa Returns to Supplement Youth Movement There have been a few times in Twins history when the club had the flexibility to sign one of baseball's best players. Carlos Correa was tremendous during his first season in Minnesota, and the Twins should spend big to have him return. It will likely take a nine or ten-year deal for over $300 million. The Twins can be creative with their contract offer to Correa and frontload the deal, so the end of the contract is more palatable. To create more financial flexibility, I have the team trading Gio Urshela and Max Kepler for prospects. Minnesota will turn third base over to Jose Miranda, and a trio of young outfielders is waiting to take over in the corner spots. Omar Narvaez is the other essential addition, as he offers a natural platoon with current catcher Ryan Jeffers. Bench: Adding Right-Handed Power Trey Mancini is the most significant addition to Minnesota's bench as he offers an upgrade compared to Kyle Garlick. The Twins lineup is loaded with left-handed hitters, and Mancini adds a corner outfield option that is right-handed. Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino proved their value during the 2022 season, and Jeffers can switch to a platoon role. Rotation: Adding an Ace Minnesota has many starting pitching options for next season, but there is no true ace at the top of the rotation. The Twins' front office needs to go out of their comfort zone to sign Carlos Rodon to a similar contract that Robbie Ray signed last winter (5-years, $115 million). There have been concerns about Rodon's health in the past, but he's been one of baseball's best pitchers over the last two seasons. His addition also adds more depth to the rotation for when injuries eventually strike. Bullpen: Internal Options Spending money on the lineup left little room for changes to the bullpen. Kepler or Urshela could be used to acquire a package that includes a potential bullpen arm. However, the Twins are getting back Jorge Alcala, and there are other young options to add to the mix. Bailey Ober and Cole Sands will be needed in the rotation sometime next season, but they can be used to piggyback Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle to start the year as they return from injury. Minnesota will trust Jorge Lopez to return to form and can be relied on in critical late-inning situations. Other players will shuffle between St. Paul and Minneapolis, but getting rid of Pagan will help the club from the season's start. Final Payroll Minnesota's 2022 payroll was around $142 million, depending on the source. The team will see a slight bump in payroll next year, especially if the front office can justify signing Correa and Rodon to long-term deals. Some of the dead money mentioned below will also be tied to last year's payroll, giving the team more flexibility. Is this the best possible outcome leading into the 2023 season? Twins Daily also allows you to make your own offseason blueprint. Feel free to create your own roster and share it in the forums with an explanation. View full article