Lazarus
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Everything posted by Lazarus
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Shane, where do you see the various catching prospects landing in 2015? Do both Garver and Turner move up one level? Where is the squeeze going to occur?
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If we remember the scenario 18 months ago, the Twins had zero starting pitching (maybe less than zero) and had attracted zero interest from any average or better free agent the prior year. Pohlad had said the team was under no spending constraints but no free agent wanted to come here since there was zero chance of competing for a playoff spot for a couple of years minimum. We can debate whether the offer was too high, but at the time the only way to get a free agent to sign that had any track record was to make a premium offer to overcome their reluctance to come here. So Nolasco probably received an extra $1-$2 million per year over what he was likely worth if he signed somewhere else (based on his track record prior to last year). Hughes signing was different due to his lack of a successful track record. I don't see any way the Twins will DFA Nolasco during the first half of a 4 year contract. Later in 2016, it could be possible - but no way he is DFA'd before then. If he doesn't bounce back, the best-case scenario is trading him for the proverbial bag of balls, with a rosin bag to be named later. Or DFA Pelfrey and make Nolasco your long reliever.
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Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Chat (Saturday)
Lazarus replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
My issue with Plouffe is that while he now has value, he's getting close to the age where his skills/production is likely to begin declining. Our history shows that we usually wait too long to achieve good return for a player in this situation - instead we think we can get value once the decline has begun, or let them go as free agents and get zip. Once Sano arrives, Plouffe is most likely a player without a position and rather than force-fit him into another position that isn't his strong-suit, turn him into an asset to acquire a better fit for that position. Or turn him into a top 10 prospect through a trade. The bigger point in all of this is that we have patiently waited for things to get rebuilt so we can return to being competitive. The minor league system should be a two-pronged asset now - supplying future major league players to the parent club, and to be a source of assets to acquire either major league players or top prospects from other organizations to fill gaps. TR has shown some success at this during his first run as GM but hasn't begun using this tool yet in his second stint. If our system is as deep as we all like to believe it is, we should be able to trade a couple of prospects occasionally without cratering the system by trading surplus to fill the gaps. -
Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Chat (Saturday)
Lazarus replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
It's a given that not all 20 will be major leaguers, so are we at a point where we feel the minor league system is sufficiently rebuilt so we can use a few of the assets judiciously to bolster the parent club? I think we're there, but the word "judiciously" should be emphasized. As an example, should we be looking to package Plouffe (once Sano is up) and a prospect for a 2016 leftfielder? Or a catcher? -
Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Chat (Saturday)
Lazarus replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Of the Top 20 prospects, who do you see as the most likely to be traded for veteran help over the next 12-18 months? It's been a while since TR has traded any prospects... -
Halsey, I was down there with my wife on the 12th to catch a round of BP (Hunter, Hicks, Vargas, Herrmann) - I should have been asking around to see if there were any other TD posters there. My first error of the season I guess. That said, I considered it an hour well-spent!
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After Sano catches up to guys like Oliva, Morneau, Hrbek, etc., then we can include him in the same sentence or paragraph as Killebrew. I'm just anxious to get the Sano marathon started.
- 38 replies
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- miguel sano
- harmon killebrew
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Cody's Top Ten Twins Prospects
Lazarus replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm a little surprised that Berrios is slotted behind Stewart in the ranking, given their respective performances in 2014. Also a little surprised to see Meyer drop out of the top 5 - I expect him to be on the Santana Plan in 2015 (Johan - not Ervin or Danny) where he starts the year in the bullpen and forces a move into the rotation by mid-season. Other than that little bit of useless nitpicking, the top 10 looks solid - Cody, thanks for taking the time to put it together!- 14 replies
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- byron buxton
- miguel sano
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Walking into his Twins Career Sunset: Chris Parmelee
Lazarus replied to Bark's Lounge's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If not for the injuries to Buxton and Sano last year, I'm not sure Parmalee would have survived to the end of the 2014 season without being outrighted. With the outfielders and first basemen already on the major league roster and young players (Buxton, Sano, Rosario) likely here by the end of the season, I don't see room for Parmalee on a four-man bench. I don't see him being offered a major league contract this off-season, perhaps a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite. A couple of years in Japan to re-establish his resume is probably the best (and most lucrative) bet. Sayonara, Parmalee-san. -
If you believe that Sano can stick at 3B, then Plouffe should be traded by July. He'll be over 30 by then time the Twins are in a position to contend again - I believe his value is as high as it ever will be. If the outfield is still a mess at that time, trade him for a younger outfielder rather than force-fitting him into that role. Otherwise, trade him for pitching. If Sano doesn't come back strongly, you can hang onto Plouffe a while longer unless you want to slot Escobar in at 3B.
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Should Yoenis Cespedes be an option for the Twins?
Lazarus replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If Boston can't extend his contract, they will retain him until the trading deadline in July and then move him for a decent prospect. Boston won't move him now unless someone really ponies up with a choice prospect. There is no chance that he would sign with the Twins if they commit the huge act of charity by giving a good prospect to Boston - effectively bailing them out of a tough situation. I'd rather start with Rosario in LF, with Hicks/Schafer warming CF until Buxton comes up later in the season. Leave Arcia in RF - quit bouncing him around between LF and RF. -
Nice that the back of the pen is shaping up to be dominant - just need to figure out how to get the game to them with the lead...
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- eddie rosario
- byron buxton
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I see this as a couple of separate issues. Sano is being counted on to be a cornerstone of this franchise for the next 10 years - put him wherever you feel he may be most successful at each stage of his career. The Twins are a couple of years away from being a serious contender. Plouffe is above average on a poor team, but I see him as middle-of-the-pack on a decent team. Can't see him as a cornerstone player in a couple of years when he is 30+ and hitting his decline years. Trade him now while his value is high rather than wait to trade him when he reaches his inevitable decline. Want to be more like St. Louis? This would be one way.
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I have to agree with Mr. Pleiss - the proposed combination of PInto and Herrmann handling the pitching staff makes me queasy. I would go bold and trade Trevor Plouffe this offseason - his value has risen (we always trade players when their value has declined and expect great returns) and possibly could fetch the left fielder we are looking for. Slide Escobar to 3B until Sano comes up late-May/early-June - by then, we'll know if Santana is going to stick at SS. Escobar could go back to SS or return to being a very good utility infielder. I would rather go down this path than try to force Plouffe into an outfield role - I think it is a coin-flip on whether he would succeed in the outfield defensively while his offensive output would be about average (I see him as a poor man's Cuddyer). Plouffe's trade value will begin to decline withing two years as he hits his '30's so let's maximize his return now.
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Latest on the Twins Manager Search
Lazarus replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Interesting how Dave Martinez has disappeared from the conversation this week. He would check a couple of the boxes that many have been asking for: Latin/Caribbean manager, and from outside the organization. I would hope that his name at least comes up for an interview this week. I think the new manager needs to give strong consideration to retaining Bruno as the hitting coach. 6th in runs scored and improved approaches for several players as the season went on. I'm somewhat indifferent on the rest of the staff.- 29 replies
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- paul molitor
- doug mientkiewicz
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Fangraphs discussion of Twins' prospects up
Lazarus replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Seems that a year ago, May wasn't destined to be a starter and that his ceiling was middle relief. We could be on that same Merry-Go-Round now with the "Meyer as a reliever" discussion. I'm willing to wait for Alex to show us which one he will be when he arrives in 2015. -
The Merits of Mientkiewicz and Molitor
Lazarus replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think the biggest question that has to be answered with Dougie is his maturity to handle the pressures of a major league manager's job. His fight last year with an opposing manager leaves an open question on whether he is "ready now" or if he needs another couple of years. The pressures that he'll face from the media (traditional and social) and also from older players who are more likely to challenge him than the 19-23 year olds that he has managed in Ft. Myers will be a big change. At 58, I don't see Mollie staying as manager until he's 70 so Dougie could get another chance in a couple of years. In the meantime, he could be moved to another level in the organization to see how he handles another managing environment, preferably with older players. Whoever they hire, they need two things written into their contracts: 1) Have at least two coaches from the Caribbean/Latin America; and 2) A requirement to turn in the baseball to the team when the win the World Series. -
I assume this means that te Twns are planning to add more guys to the 40 man for September call-ups. I'm okay with that - I didn't see SD fitting into the plans as they return to contention in 2016/17.
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Vargas: Kennys Keep it Up
Lazarus replied to Twins and Losses's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's too bad that Kennys wasn't called up in early July. I figure that it takes about a month for the book to get around on a new guy's tendencies, and we could have seen how he adjusted to legitimate MLB pitching attacking his weaknesses in August. We'll only get to see a little of that in September as the expanded rosters will dilute the pitching staffs and not give us a true read of how Kennys adjusts. I guess we'll have to wait until late April/early May to learn that. -
Don't agree that Ryan was responsible for the rotting of the minor league system - that responsibility falls squarely on Ryan's overmatched successor. When the Pohlad's brought Ryan back, I figured it would be a 3-4 year process to get back to respectibility and competing for the post-season. The model has fundamentally changed in that you can't do it solely through free agency anymore. There are a few players that Ryan might have signed to shorter contracts that would have made watching this team more palatable over the last three years, but those players would have had to be willing to sign here. I don't believe there were many upgrades that were willing. That probably changes a little in the upcoming years as the prospects are starting to arrive and potential free agents can better see how the team will be competitive during their contract period, but now we can be more selective - don't need 32 to 35 year olds larding up the roster.
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His skill set seems to be that of what we'd want in a 4th/5th outfielder - decent defense, pinch runner, late-inning defensive replacement. Not a solution as a starter (I've had my fill of bench players being dressed up as starters the last few years) but seems to be a valuable roster addition for the right role.
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Twins Are Making The Right Moves
Lazarus replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I believe this is year 3 of the rebuild, not year 4 (but it is the 4th consecutive down year). In 2011, the wheels came off after winning the division in 2010 - I don't count 2011 as a rebuild but a frozen stare of horror. We still had Billy Smith as GM and bare cupboards in the upper minors. Rebuilding the minors usually takes 3-4 years before that talent is ready to move to the majors, so this feels like it is on schedule even though it as been agonizing to watch. I blame the Twins Daily staff for keeping us so well informed on who's who in the minors that we all became inpatient! -
Trevor May To Start On Saturday
Lazarus replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I remain optimistic that the wave of prospects that we have been waiting for is coming to shore - the combination of prospects demonstrating success and expiring contracts at the end of the season have me optimistic for more entertaining baseball next spring. I really don't want to have another season of conversations about 5th outfielders and utility infielders in our starting line up. We should be about done with stop-gap solutions. -
Generally agree with the players on the list - to me, it's not important to quibble about the exact ranking but whether you're stretching to make a list. After reviewing the list and thinking about the current ML roster, it's beginning to feel like the youth wave is finally approaching the shore - not only are older players with expiring contracts going to be leaving in the off season, but some of the fringe "plug the gap" guys should begin to exit the organization as well in 2015 as the prospects are closer to being ready to make the final step. Keeping Suzuki around for another two years should improve the odds of the Twins pitching prospects making successful transitions to the majors. Not sure if Pino is going to make as a catcher in the bigs - starting to feel that his ceiling is a better hitting version of Doumit or Hermann.

