Western SD Fan

Like some of the other posters, I don't see how Rogers slows down any development. I don't mind seeing Prielipp marinate down in AAA for a little while and then come into the bullpen. Let's look at Rogers first. If he stinks, the Twins DFA him. If he is serviceable, he can still probably get guys out in the 6-8th innings, think Okert or Sergio Romo when they were mildly successful. If he is really good, he's likely trade bait for a low-level prospect. In any scenario, he's really not holding anyone back. As for Prielipp, we have seen starters begin their careers in the bullpen, such as the previously mentioned Santana. I would also suggest that Liriano and most recently Crochet have made conversions from the bullpen to a starter. Even Funderburk, who still has some kinks to work out to becoming a trusted bullpen guy, had to start in mop-up work when he was called up. All this for a pitcher than hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors yet. Maybe we should see whether he can actually get ML hitters out first before deciding where to place him and his best opportunity to see the majors is in the bullpen.

I agree with this point. I would say that trading Jeffers would have to more to do with timing than whether the Twins are in "win now" mode. I could see them trading Jeffers at or near the deadline, regardless of where they are in the standings. History tells me that a catcher from another competing team will go down sometime during the season. Add to that a potential lockout and we may see some teams really overpay in order to win the WS this year. We have seen trades like this from other savvy-minded teams (Rays, Brewers, Guardians). Finally, I do not see a catcher such as Jeffers that is used to 1/2 to 2/3 of the load being reduced to a backup role with Narvaez in Boston at least for an entire season. IMHO, this is definitely a wait and see mode to see where the Twins are in the standings as the season progresses, and where they think their primary prospect in Tait finishes in the minors at the end of the season. One question to the collective that knows more about this than I do. In an impending lockout, are the minor league players locked out as well? The last mini lockout in 2021, only players on the 40-man roster was locked out, but the remaining minor league players could still play. I also see that the minor league players are now part of the MLBPA as of 2022, so I am not sure how that affects the minor leagues this time.

One update to the list is the Red Sox signing Ranger Suarez. Of the remaining teams, the Nationals are still running the kids and letting them mature into a core that could be great, the Rockies are what they are, the Cardinals and the Twins are likely in a similar boat of trying to compile the best competitive team they can and letting it ride. I only feel that the Rangers are actually serious about competing. I can see this as being a tough year to be a Twins GM, especially if said GM is way over his head. With a potential lockout upcoming at the end of the 2026, I'm sure that the directive is to try to spend money "wisely". Unfortunately, Falvey must think that "wisely" is spending pennies on 2-ply toilet paper where for a few pennies more you could get 3-ply that performs a lot better. Also, that likely means not bringing up the high-end prospects too early as to preserve service time and team control, which I can see being a sticking point in the upcoming CBA negotiations. All that adds up to a lot of placeholders on the roster to see where they stick or eventually be traded.

When reading through the article and the comments, I do not see who Joe Ryan's agent is. Even a web search surprisingly isn't helpful in finding that information. Let's assume for the sake of argument that Ryan is a Boras client. Boras's clients have historically (not always) tested the free agent market or at least made the rounds gauging interest before signing an extension with a team. Of the players that have be re-signed or signed an extension with their current team, the only player since 2019 that fits the bill of a Twins-type spender was Stephen Strasburg with the Nationals. Every other player resigned or was extended with a high-payroll team. Examples are Pete Alonso, Jose Altuve, Cody Bellenger, etc. Again, let's assume that any half-decent GM has already been in discussions with Joe Ryan about an extension to gauge what he is expecting in terms of a contract (I know, I know, a lot of assuming when it comes to Falvey). It's definitely possible that they have already determined that Ryan is going to be out of their price range and just trying to time the market on when it will be optimal to trade him (think Gerrit Cole) without abandoning the withering group of fans that the Twins have left.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I think the point of the article is that there is no one better than Lee currently in the organization at or near the big-league level. The other consideration is where to put Lewis if you move Lee to 3rd. Lewis has to play somewhere as trading him at his lowest trade value makes no sense. One of the big discussions near the end of the season was potentially moving Lee to a Willi Castro type INF if or when Culpepper would be ready to be brought up to the majors, but that will still take time. One more consideration is all of this off-season discussion will be monitoring the negotiations on the new CBA. Would you want to rush some of these players to the majors with the possibility that they will be locked out after the season with no chance of further development.

I encourage you to re-read @Sherry Cerny article that she wrote last week linked here: I hate continuing to hear about how cheap the Pohlad's are while they continue to outspend most of the teams in the region and definitely in the division. Will that get us a World Series? Obviously not, but there is no excuse with the payroll we have had during the Falvey/Rocco era to be more competitive than we have shown on the field. I'm not going to rehash what could/should have been done as Sherry did a great job of that in her article and you should go read it. If you want to criticize the Pohlads, it's not so much the amount of payroll spending. It's the inefficiency of how they are organizing their budgets and that the Pohlads themselves do not know how to run an efficient small to mid-market team. When I looked at the Twins' payrolls (using Sportrac as my reference) compared to other teams that seems to be more payroll efficient, such as Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay, the Twins have wild swings in their payroll, going up $29M from 2021-2022, then dropping by $25M two years later in 2024. IMHO, the Pohlads give a payroll based on the profitability of their other businesses, using the Twins as a cash cow rather than running it as a separate business. I believe this explains the sudden shifts in payroll from year to year and the mystery of what the payroll will be every offseason. We don't seem to hear this much chatter about payroll expectations from the other teams listed above as they seem to operate in a range that is well known to their GM likely years in advance. This situation is where a more experienced GM than Falvey would have been better. Falvey seemed to feel the need to spend his budgeted payroll akin to a government agency that feels like he needs to spend every last dime with the fear that he wouldn't get that budget again. Spoiler alert: Falvey never gets the same budget twice. This leads to inefficient spending (Donaldson, Correa, Margot, Gallo, we all know the list). I also think this led to Falvey not being able to spend at the deadline as he used all of his bullets in the offseason trying to plug holes with aging veterans. Here is my work in showing how the Twins compare payroll wise to teams like Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Milwaukee. I left out the 2020 year since it would skew my payroll averages. As we can see, the Twins have had the largest consistent payroll of the group but has the worst winning percentage of the group and made the playoffs the least number of times of the group during the Falvey Era. W L Win % Avg Payroll Avg MLB Payroll Rank Post App Minnesota 654 642 0.505 131.325 18.25 3 Milwaukee 734 563 0.566 117.60 20.375 6 Cleveland 714 581 0.551 99.825 23.125 5 Tampa Bay 708 588 0.546 79.738 27.125 4 Per Sportrac, this has been the Twins payroll during the Falvey Era, minus 2020 of course. Payroll is in millions, stars represent postseason appearances, and the MLB payroll rank. Minnesota W L Payroll MLB Place 70 92 129.7 21 82 80 131.2 19 87 75 156.1 16 * 78 84 150.4 15 73 89 121.4 17 101 61 125.3 18 * 78 84 115.5 21 85 77 121 19 *

@Sherry Cerny BREAKING: According to MLB.com, a source is saying that LaTroy Hawkins is expected to be hired as Shelton's bullpen coach. I think this was something we had hoped for in an earlier thread this week. Familiar face returns: LaTroy Hawkins to be Twins' new bullpen coach (source)

I'll make the same comment as I did on the Christian Vazquez thread earlier this week. Try for Jansen or Caratini if they trade Jeffers and offer either of them a 2-yr contract to try to build the bridge to Tait or Enrique Jimenez coming out of the minors. If they don't trade Jeffers, then try for McCann as I think he will be the best catcher as a pure backup for Jeffers. I'm guessing the Twins are not signing back Vazquez since they gave away his jersey number to some scrub named Derek Shelton.

I remember watching a young LaTroy Hawkins starting games for the Twins and being frustrated that he couldn't get through the third trip of the lineup. Little did I know that this philosophy would eventually become the industry standard and all teams start getting nervous once a pitcher starts going through the third time through the lineup. As others have highlighted, LaTroy brings a unique perspective with the fact that he had to reinvent himself as an effective reliever and that he didn't ever have elite stuff and still managed a 20-year career. I hope that they do consider Hawkins as a coach. I have enjoyed his commentary during games. He also brings the perspective of being just a guy throughout his career and knowledge on how to grind out a career. This perspective is probably something a few of these players need to hear and need to start adjusting to so they do not wash out and become a bust or fall to the pressure, be it real or perceived.

I'm not so sure about this statement. Not that Shelton wasn't a fall guy in Pittsburgh, he likely was, but that Falvey would have actually vetted out his time in Pittsburgh. I would guess that Falvey helped vet Shelton when he was hired as Rocco's bench coach, so his opinion of Shelton likely hadn't changed since then. I also believe that Shelton is essentially Baldelli 2.0 and Falvey may have blinders on to whatever warts Shelton may have developed during his time in Pittsburgh.

Per MLB, here is this list of FA catchers listed in order by Fangraphs WAR. For all of the criticism of Vazquez, he actually scores pretty high for who is available in the current FA market. J.T. Realmuto (35 years old, 4.0 WAR) - No way on earth that he signs with the Twins, even if they back up a couple of Brinks' trucks of cash Salvador Perez (36, 3.8) -- club option - Likely retiring a Royal. Twins still not signing him. Victor Caratini (32, 2.7) - IMHO, will likely sign with another team for more money than the Twins are willing to spend. Twins may only pursue him if they trade Jeffers and want a bridge catcher similar to Jason Castro to bridge the gap from now to when Tait or Enrique Jimenez is ready. Danny Jansen (31, 1.8) -- mutual option - don't see him leaving Toronto, but if he does, see Caratini comment above. Christian Vázquez (35, 1.0) - doesn't seem so bad here, plus he does know the pitchers and the team. A 1-yr/3M or a 2-yr/5M deal w/ a 250k buyout may work here. James McCann (36, 0.9) - IMHO is my favorite to replace Vazquez as I have always liked McCann. Elias Díaz (35, 0.8) -- mutual option - Padres have the mutual option and may want to exercise it here to make sure they have a quality backup catcher as well since I would guess Fermin will be their primary catcher going forward. Twins won't trade for him with a $7M contract option for 2026. This is the remainder of the list. None of which inspire me any more than running it back with Vazquez at a more economical cost. Tomás Nido (32, 0.3) -- signed MiLB deal with DET (Oct. 30) Austin Barnes (36, 0.2) Gary Sánchez (33, 0.2) Mitch Garver (36, -0.4) -- mutual option Luke Maile (35, -0.4) Tom Murphy (35, -0.5) -- club option Jacob Stallings (36, -0.5) Martín Maldonado (39, -2.3) -- retired

There may not be players that "want" to come here, but there are always players that need to come to a team like Minnesota for various reasons. Whether it's because they need to resurrect their career, coming off an injury, or it's still better than accepting than signing in Korea or Japan. Of course, these types of signings also have the additional potential of being traded at the deadline for prospects. All these are the perfect Falvey targets of course. Like any small/mid-market team, Falvey needs to be creative in making quality trades that bolster the lineup and making free agent signings that complement the team, not necessarily making the big splashy signing. Successful examples were trading for Odorizzi and Pablo or signing Bader and Carlos Santana. I also look at how players have been developed or talents adjusted during the Falvey Era. Using Odorizzi again, the Twins pitching coaches identified his strengths, weaknesses, and areas he could improve on using analytics. That likely gave him a final life after he left Minnesota. That seems to be using analytics to improve the talent and skills that Odorizzi already had. The other end of the spectrum has been the development of the younger players, both pitchers and position players in recent years. Falvey and Co has let the analytics determine the player's talents. We've been hearing for years about how both minor and major league coaches have tried to change player's approaches at the plate consistently trying to turn singles and doubles hitters into home run hitters. Austin Martin is a perfect example. Twins coaches have tried adjusting his mechanics and swing ever since he has come to Minnesota. Finally, Martin went back to his approach that he had at Vanderbilt and saw some improvement at the end of the season. I think as Falvey and Co has become more reliant on analytics; they let the analytics drive the train and change a player rather than use analytics to improve a player's talents and skills like they did in the earlier days with Odorizzi or Polanco. One final point to make. Many of us here at TD, me included, have been critical of the usage of analytics in making even some of the simplest baseball decisions. There obviously is a need for analytics or places like Driveline wouldn't be in demand. Hopefully, this manager and coaching shakeup will be a chance to reset how they use analytics as an organization and a team and use it like they did in the earlier years and not how it has become in the last couple of seasons.

The Twins could shoulder some blame for trading for a pitcher with a known injury risk, such as Mahle. With that being said, I still agree with you that I would have pulled the trigger on the trade at the time of the trade.

The Lew Ford files went down with the Vikings Love Boat. No chance of recovery. Please disregard the rumors of binders and binders of information supposedly being released.

Gleeman’s representative from the law office of Robinson, Dangerfield and Dice Clay says that Twins Daily has operated under shady business dealings for nearly 15 years, and the public deserves to have their team covered by polished, dignified professionals who have class. The lawyer has a point here. I'm not sure the degenerates here on Twins Daily should be the public that he is referring to, but the lawyer has a point.

I'm not sure that Torii as a manager would tarnish his legacy with the team or at least with the fans. The most recent example would be Paul Molitor as it appears that his legacy or reputation has not been tarnished by his managerial foray with the Twins. IMHO, most of us believe that the Twins are a work in progress to put it nicely so I'm not sure Torii would be blamed if the team didn't succeed as manager. The fact that Torii is not interested in the job says a lot about Torii as he doesn't want to give up his best life for what looks to be a dumpster fire. I think this also says a lot about Falvey and/or ownership that Torii declined to even be formally interviewed for the job.

I have a feeling that the number of former Twins-heavy candidates is because the team in general is looking for any form of positivity for the team moving forward as I'm sure there were quite a few season-ticket cancellations in the last couple months of the season. Many people believe that the manager does not have a huge role anymore and many of the decisions are made by the FO and not the manager. IF that is the case, why wouldn't you want a manager like a Torii Hunter, Nelson Cruz, or James Rowson to come back and manage to bring back some of the nostalgia of when the Twins were better and sort of "grow up" with the team. If nothing else, those types of managers (sans Rowson) will still be loved in Minnesota regardless of how they do at being a manager, similar to Paul Molitor. I personally believe that the manager is still responsible for much of the day to day managing, such as filling out the lineup card, managing the bullpen, sending runners on a contact play, when to deploy pinch-hitters. They also have control over mandatory PFP, hitting cages, fielding work, base-running, etc. They are responsible for finding out what their coaches are doing and if they are addressing problems within the team in terms of fundamentals and game play. To counter the poster that suggested that because Hunter and Cruz have been stars during their career, they would not be good manager material. I counter with Joe Torre, a borderline HOF player (see Torii Hunter). Somehow, I think he did alright as a manager. Think Torre is a fluke because he was able to manage the high spending Yankees? I'll give you a HOF player that managed, Yogi Berra. He managed 7 years for the Yankees and Mets leading each team to a pennant in those 7 years.

Will the firmware update to the Robo-Skipper 5000 have a hat that can be thrown on the field when arguing a call?

Here's a thought. Hire Hunter as the manager and see if Hunter will bring in Ron Washington as his bench coach. We then have a similar situation than the Twins did when they hired Baldelli in 2019 with Derek Shelton as his bench coach. Shelton was the experienced voice that helped Baldelli that first year. I think Washington could do the same for Hunter without all of the stress of being the field manager. You have the flair of a manager that can connect with the players and the sage of an experienced manager to help make the decisions and maybe teach the infield how to play defense.

We obviously don't know what the budget that Falvey will have this upcoming season. Every team needs players that the fans are excited about, no matter how terrible the team is performing. The running joke next year will be that the only time Target Field will be sold out will be when the Twins are not in town (Banana Ball at Target Field!). Even in the late 90's prior to the Twins resurgence in the 2000's, we had Brad Radke, Eric Milton, Matt Lawton, and Todd Walker along with a bunch of kids coming of age and waiting to blossom. I think from a fanbase standpoint we need to retain Lopez and Ryan at least until the trade deadline to give a reason for fans to come to the ballpark. Additionally, there needs to be veterans around the ballpark to help some of these younger players navigate the pitfalls and perils of a major league season, especially in a rebuild. Ryan stumbled at the end of the season and Lopez is still coming back from injury and will be at full strength at the start of next season. Both cases may need a wait and see approach before they are actually at their peak trade value.

These "Arbitrary Thoughts" articles are definitely better than the old Twins commercials: "Sorta Deep Thoughts".

I'm going to surmise that the Pohlads finally received reports about season-ticket and corporate sponsor cancellations, which has prompted the press releases and trying to take ownership for the year that was. Various rumors have been floated that the new minority stake owners, when approved by MLB, will have real say in how the roster is constructed and the payroll. That may be part of the approach that Falvey is taking by stating that he expects Lopez, Ryan, and Buxton to be on the roster next season, but of course, like all of us fans, are in a wait and see game to see what actually happens in the offseason. As for the theme song, it has to be "Closing Time" by Minnesota's own Semisonic. They can play the song when they release the fans out into to the world to their own devices.

One thing to add is that the debt service (interest payments) on the amount borrowed can also be claimed as an expense by Twins Baseball, LLC increasing the loss. A simple calculation of $500M at current Fed rates + 1% (a reasonable assumption for billionaires borrowing money) gives us a Fed rate of 4.25% + 1%, or 5.25%, or $26.25M per year in interest. That amount sounds awful close to the amount that the team had to "right-size" after the 2023 season.

I'm also a person who subscribes to the Festa move to the bullpen when he comes back from thoracic outlet syndrome as it should fit into a schedule where he would need to build up his arm anyway. They can then see how he responds to the bullpen work and go from there. There will be an adjustment period, just like there was with Sands and Varland. Prielipp will likely need some extra seasoning in St. Paul to get him ready for a bullpen role on the ML club. The remaining pitchers mentioned will likely need to stay starters in St. Paul as we continue to see that pitchers break down during the year and you have to depend on your farm system to have reliable starters in reserve.

This is a good first start as it uses almost all internal options. As the OP has stated, it's reasonable to think that the FO won't spend much during the offseason. I like the potential signing of Hoskins or someone like Hoskins since he's essentially there to trade off at the deadline for a prospect. I still hold my ground that the FO will play the service time game with Jenkins and not bring him up right away. Internally, you're probably replacing him with Keirsey Jr. if you don't want to bring up any other high prospects in the OF. I also think there will be some FA bullpen arms signed as this FO has seemed to like signing RP on cheap prove-it contracts (league min - $1.5M range). This idea also gives the Twins time to see how Raya, Prielipp, and Morris adjust to their new roles in St. Paul before calling them up, or the Louis Varland treatment.