Cody Schoenmann

With a systematic but flexible approach to scouting and development, the Twins have had various former college starting pitchers emerge as promising pitching prospects over the last handful of seasons. Could Tanner Hall be the next to join the mix? Image courtesy of William Parmeter The Twins love to target college starting pitchers in the draft, add velocity to their four-seam fastball, and help them develop MLB-caliber second and third pitches. From Bailey Ober to more recent developmental success stories like David Festa and Zebby Matthews, President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey has delivered the much-desired "pitching pipeline," a buzzword many have used in the past to criticize and demean the organization's ability to draft and develop home-grown arms. Andrew Morris, Jaylen Nowlin, and Christian MacLeod have continued the trend of former college pitchers performing well enough to quickly progress through the minor-league ranks and join the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge relatively early in their developmental cycles. While Morris, Nowlin, and MacLeod could become relevant depth options in the team's long-term rotation or bullpen plans, another former college arm residing in the low minors could be fairly close behind them. Tanner Hall, 22, was selected by Minnesota with the 114th pick of the 2023 MLB Draft, out of the University of Southern Mississippi. Hailing from Brian Dozier and Matt Wallner's alma mater, the steady righthander produced a 2.48 ERA there, while striking out 124 hitters over 112 innings pitched for the Golden Eagles over three seasons. Pitching in the heart of the Bible Belt, Hall was one of the most successful Division I pitchers in 2023. He earned consensus All-American status. Like most drafted college arms, Hall took the rest of the 2023 season off after being selected by the Twins. He has pitched exclusively at Single-A since making his professional baseball debut early this season, posting a 5.22 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over eight starts and six relief appearances for the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels. Although his numbers on the surface underwhelm, though, his underlying metrics tell a different story. Over 39 2/3 innings pitched, Hall has mustered a 3.86 FIP and 3.44 xFIP. Hall's inflated ERA is seemingly the result of poor luck on balls put in play, evidenced by opposing hitters generating a .375 BABIP against him. He has generated a 52% ground ball rate, with 52.8% of balls put in play against him being pulled by opposing hitters. The mix of Hall's high ground ball rate and ballooned opponent BABIP indicates that he is presumably falling victim to balls sneaking through the infield. These unfortunate results are likely the product of poor infield defense in the lower minors. Nevertheless, Hall has performed well when in control, netting an inspiring 52-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio and allowing just three home runs over 184 total batters faced. The key to him is his fascinating pitch mix. The soft-tossing right-hander utilizes a sinker, slider, and changeup to contest hitters of both handedness effectively. All of his pitches move laterally. Hall uses his sinker and slider as his primary modus operandi for attacking right-handed hitters. His slider, which moves away from same-handed batters, works as a great complement to his in-breaking sinker. This traditional "east-west" approach to combating same-handed hitters is in no way a new or unique approach for right-handed hurlers. However, Hall does possess a distinctive quirk that makes him stand out. Hall uses a Vulcan-style changeup grip, similar to Dodgers great closer Éric Gagné. Coined after the fictional extraterrestrial humanoids in Star Trek, his change possesses fascinating cut action, relative to his sinker. This peculiarity helps make his changeup (which rates as a 60 on FanGraphs's "20-to-80" scouting scale) especially effective against left-handed hitters. While Hall has an intriguing pitch mix, he has command concerns he needs to iron out before getting a promotion. However, his 9.8% walk rate is a promising development that indicates he may have already made sustainable adjustments. From the past in Ober, to the present in Festa, and looking to the near future in Matthews, the Twins have been able to draft college pitchers in mid-to-later rounds, increase the velocity on their primary hard pitches, improve their secondary pitches, and turn them into viable MLB-caliber prospects. Hall has demonstrated promising results at Single-A, and if he can improve his sinker velocity (presently hovering around 91-92 MPH) while solidifying his slider and truly formidable changeup, he could be next in the long line of former college pitchers to blossom under the organization's pitching development program. View full article

Ryan Jeffers was exceptional at the plate the first month of the season. However, the Twins catcher has been a slightly below-average hitter since the calendar flipped to May. Should those following the team expect a late-season offensive resurgence, or more mediocrity? Let's take a look. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Last season, Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers broke out in a way those who follow the team had been waiting for, after witnessing flashes of above-average offensive prowess his previous three seasons in the league. He posted a .276/.369/.490 slash line, while hitting 14 home runs and 15 doubles over 335 plate appearances. It came out to a 138 wRC+. The UNC-Wilmington product excelled at putting the ball in play and hitting for power, while generating an honorable (particularly for a catcher) 9.9% walk rate. Offensively superb catchers are rare in baseball. Yet, it felt like the Twins had developed one. Unfortunately, the narrative has quickly shifted, and his struggles at the plate for the bulk of this season have left many to wonder if his performance last year was a mere anomaly. Jeffers began this season hot at the plate, hitting .295/.390/.557 with five home runs and eight doubles over his first 105 plate appearances. His walk rate had dipped to a modest 7.6%. However, he made up for his by striking out only 17.1% of the time and posting a superb .261 Isolated Power (ISO) over that stretch. He quickly inserted himself into All-Star consideration, and was discussed in the same vein as fellow AL catchers Adley Rutschman and Cal Raleigh. However, his production at the plate would plummet from those heights. The first signs of sustained negative regression occurred in mid-May, when he hit .164/.261/.393 with four home runs and two doubles over 69 plate appearances from May 10-31. His advanced metrics confirmed his struggles, as he posted an 85 wRC+ and an uninspiring 88.5 Exit Velocity (EV) in that timeframe. When he made contact, he often hit weak grounders to infielders. He also began striking out much more often, skyrocketing to a 34.8% strikeout rate for the span. Jeffers's struggles at the plate have remained. He has hit .192/.264/.320, with only four home runs and four doubles, over 141 plate appearances since the start of June. His strikeout rate returned to an inspiring 14.6%. However, his average EV has stayed at a too-modest 86.1 MPH, indicating that he continues to make weak contact, resulting in lazy flyouts or chopped groundouts. In these two-plus months, his wRC+ is an anemic 72. The average wRC+ for catchers presently sits at 94. Most catchers are selected for their defensive and receiving prowess, and players like the aforementioned Rutschman and Raleigh are the exception. However, to see Jeffers perform so poorly while also rating as a below-average defender at that defense-first spot raises significant alarm bells. While Jeffers's performance post-April has been rather bleak, there is reason to suspect he may be returning to his early-season form. He has been on a tear (of sorts) over the past two series against the New York Mets and Chicago White Sox. While facing New York on Jul. 29, he drove the ball to deep right field, which would have been a home run if it hadn't been for Mets outfielder Tyrone Taylor. Luckily for Jeffers, he was able to immediately avenge himself, drilling a long ball to deep left field in his next at-bat. He took his recent power surge at the plate with him from Queens to 1 Twins Way, hitting a home run off budding star lefty Garrett Crochet just two games later. The Twins' 27-year-old catcher hit .273/.357/.818 in those six games, with three hits, two of which were the previously mentioned home runs. His counting numbers would look even more inspiring if it weren't for Taylor's theatrics. In that stretch, he generated a 200 wRC+ and a slightly more encouraging average EV of 92.5. Now, it would be malpractice to make any genuine assessments or predictions off 14 plate appearances. However, he is demonstrating a knack for power, while consistently hitting the ball hard, a phenomenon that has been missing since earlier this Summer. Fellow catcher Christian Vázquez will keep getting half the playing time. Nevertheless, Jeffers reverting to his 2023 and early 2024 offensive form would be a welcome development for a team nearing seven straight games at home against the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians and AL Wild Card-contending Kansas City Royals. A reinvigorated Jeffers would also be an important player for the future of the franchise. View full article

Where does Trevor Richards fit in the Twins bullpen hierarchy? What does his stuff look like? Let's take a deep dive. Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports As the clock struck 5 PM Central time on July 30, Twins Territory erupted in cheers, as a last-minute tweet from ESPN insider Jeff Passan appeared on their phone: "The Minnesota Twins have acquired starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, per sources." The organization defied all odds and widespread perception, acquiring a starting pitcher who will surely help them as they contend for the AL Central with the vaunted Cleveland Guardians while fending off the surging Kansas City Royals. Personall--ah, wait--Oh, okay. Sorry, never mind. Matt just informed me that I can't just make stuff up because it's what I wish happened. He's also telling me it's not a healthy coping mechanism. Okay, let me restart. As the clock struck 5 PM central time on July 30, Twins Territory looked on somberly, as the only trade deadline acquisition the organization made was acquiring veteran right-handed reliever Trevor Richards from the retooling Toronto Blue Jays. The Twins sent infield prospect Jay Harry (who has a 91 wRC+ over 340 plate appearances at High-A) back to Toronto in the deal. Finances and lack of going "all-in" aside, the Twins acquired an arm who will play a consequential role in the team's ability to chase down the Guardians and fend off the Royals down the stretch. So, whom has the club acquired? And what role will he play as the regular season nears its triumphant conclusion? Let's take a look. Richards, 31, was not selected by an MLB team in the 2015 MLB Draft. After playing one season for the Gateway Grizzlies of the independent Frontier League, he signed with the Miami Marlins. He pitched in their minor-league system for two years before debuting as a starting pitcher in 2018. Richards bounced between Miami, the Tampa Bay Rays, and Milwaukee Brewers as a reliever before finding a long-term home with the Blue Jays in 2021. Here is how Richards has performed the past two and a half seasons north of the border: 2021 - .143/.213/.339 opponent slash line, 3.31 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 37-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 32 2/3 innings pitched 2022 - .238/.332/.396 opponent slash line, 5.34 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 82-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 64 innings pitched 2023 - .228/.318/.424, 4.95 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 105-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 72 ⅔ innings pitched Posting a combined 4.53 ERA over 169 1/3 innings pitched, Richards has been one of the top pen arms of an organization that made the postseason two out of the three seasons he was there. Here are the 31-year-old righty's career splits: Facing right-handed hitters: .249/.320/.438 opponent slash line, .324 opponent wOBA, 342-to-116 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 1,298 batters faced Facing left-handed hitters: .222/.313/.375 opponent slash line, .299 opponent wOBA, 256-to-121 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 1,044 batters faced Despite having shakier command when facing left-handed hitters, evidenced by five more walks over 254 fewer batters faced, Richards has performed better against lefties. His tendency to perform better against opposite-handed hitters has been especially glaring this season. He owns a .183/.272/.268 opponent slash line against left-handed hitters, netting a 16-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and holding them to a .247 wOBA over 82 batters faced. In contrast, he has allowed a .210/.306/.410 opponent slash line to right-handed hitters, netting a 28-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio and holding them to a .313 wOBA over 122 batters faced. One of the two primary positions the Twins needed to acquire at the deadline was a reliever who pitched well against left-handed relievers. While a left-handed reliever would have been ideal, Richards fits the bill nevertheless. He will likely become the primary reliever against left-handed hitters, meaning Steven Okert and Caleb Thielbar will be demoted from their current roles. Richards's opponent slash lines are encouraging. However, his counting statistics tell a different story. Over his first 46 innings pitched, he netted a 2.54 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and a 45-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 178 batters faced. Despite sustaining a 4.16 xFIP, his start to the season was genuinely impressive, netting a 25.3% strikeout rate and leaving 71% of runners on base. Unfortunately, a flip switched, and the Drury University product's performance has significantly dipped as of late, netting a 19.89 ERA, 9.79 FIP, and a measly 4-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 6 1/3 innings pitched. His strikeout rate has plummeted to an uninspiring 10% while leaving just 41.7% of runners on base. He has also encountered a home run issue, generating a 16.7% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio and allowing two home runs in this stretch. Now, many factors could be playing in his sudden decrease in performance. The Blue Jays have gone from contending with postseason aspirations to begin the season to being effectively out of the race, holding a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. They underwent a firesale of sorts, sending off veterans Yimi García, Nate Pearson, Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Kevin Kiermaier, and Richards before the deadline. The team's dwindling postseason chances could have played into his recent struggles. Yet, there is real cause for concern, particularly with the quality of his pitches. From Mar. 28 through July 4, Richards's fastball had a 5.4 Fastball runs above average at FanGraphs (wFA) over 38 appearances. Interestingly, his fastball had its most value in an appearance against the Twins on May 11, netting 0.8 wFA in one game. His changeup performed similarly well during the same stretch, manufacturing a 4.6 Changeup runs above average at FanGraphs (wCH). Like his fastball, his changeup performed its best against the Twins on May 11, netting 1.0 wCH in that appearance. It's impossible to know, but Richards performing so well against the Twins in that appearance could have played a role in the organization's interest in him. Nevertheless, the quality of his fastball and changeup have dropped over his past seven appearances, evidenced by a -5.7 wFA and -1.3 wCH in that stretch. As inferred, Richards is a two-pitch pitcher who uses only a fastball and changeup when facing either-handed hitters. His changeup is his superior pitch, evidenced by a .147 opponent batting average over 530 pitches thrown compared to a .238 opponent batting average on his fastball over 397 pitches thrown. His reverse splits are the byproduct of his changeup suddenly dropping out of the zone of opposite-handed hitters and often forcing them to produce uncompetitive swings. While his changeup is one of the more effective and competitive pitches in baseball, most of its positive results occur in moments with little weight. Of his 52 1/3 innings pitched, 33 have come in low-leverage situations. 22 1/3 innings have come in medium-leverage situations, and only 9 2/3 have come in high-leverage situations. Here is how Richards performs in each respective situation: Low-leverage: .182/.272/.281 opponent slash line, .253 opponent wOBA, 30-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 123 batters faced Medium-leverage: .167/.230/.444 opponent slash line, .328 opponent wOBA, 19-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 95 batters faced High-leverage: .324/.426/.622 opponent slash line, .433 opponent wOBA, 6-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 21 batters faced Richards performs exceptionally in low-leverage situations, below average in mid-leverage situations, and poorly in high-leverage situations. His tendency to struggle in medium-leverage situations and downright flounder in high-leverage situations doesn't bode well for a team competing to win the AL Central and hold off teams like the Royals, Boston Red Sox, and Seattle Mariners for the second Wild Card spot. That said, he still performs better than the team's other primary relievers used against left-handed hitters. Here is how Okert has performed in medium-leverage and high-leverage situations: Medium-leverage: .333/.438/.630 opponent slash line, .447 opponent wOBA, 6-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 33 batters faced High-leverage: .423/.483/.615 opponent slash line, .472 wOBA, 4-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 29 batters faced Here is how Thielbar has performed in medium-leverage and high-leverage situations: Medium-leverage: .269/.310/.269 opponent slash line, .261 wOBA, 6-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 29 batters faced High-leverage: .353/.500/.529 opponent slash line, .439 wOBA, 4-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 23 batters faced Richards will presumably slot into a medium-leverage role, usurping Okert and Thielbar. He also will likely fall fifth in line in the bullpen's hierarchy behind present high-leverage relievers Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcalá, and Cole Sands. He could earn a more prominent role if he performs well at the beginning of August. However, with the team having no long-term investment in the veteran reliever and him not performing well the past month, expectations shouldn't be too high. Nevertheless, he is presumably a better option against left-handed hitters than Okert, Thielbar, and Kody Funderburk (once he returns from the 15-day IL) and should be considered an improvement on the margins. View full article

I'm not even suggesting a platoon. I just think Miranda could get more playing time at 1B against RHPs. Santana deserves the bulk of opportunities and will get them.

I've long been drawn to the idea of transitioning Wallner or Larnach (particularly Wallner) into a first baseman, but the front office doesn't seem interested in trying either of them there. Also, Kepler likely leaving in the offseason makes keeping Wallner and Larnach in the cOF even more important.

It will be interesting to see. The 1B market will be pretty robust this offseason, but the Twins will likely be operating with significant spending constraints again.

Vázquez is much more likely to play 1B than Jeffers. The last time Jeffers played 1B was for five innings at Triple-A in 2021.

Carlos Santana has proven to be the Twins' most useful offseason acquisition, starting nearly every game at first base while providing plus defense. However, the team lacks depth behind the 38-year-old switch-hitter. Do they have a viable backup option if the wily veteran were to miss extended time? Let's take a look. Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Signed to a one-year, $5.25 million contract this February, veteran first baseman Carlos Santana has been the gem of the Twins' offseason acquisitions, sporting a .245/.329/.433 line with 78 hits, 18 doubles, 14 home runs and a 117 wRC+ over 359 plate appearances. Being one of the best-hitting first basemen in baseball and a steady switch-hitting cog in the middle of the Twins lineup has been his main source of value. However, he has also been one of the best defensive players at the position, netting 10 Outs Above Average at Baseball Savant (OAA), which places him first in the AL and second only behind Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker, who has 12. The sure-handed 38-year-old plays balls down the line and in-between first and second base exceptionally. He also possesses one of the best gloves in the game and a natural knack for scooping errant throws. Santana has been a silver lining free agent signing from an offseason where organization decision-makers essentially had both hands tied behind their back from a financial flexibility standpoint. He has become the team's everyday first baseman, hitting against both left and right-handed starting pitchers. However, that wasn't the team's initial plan. Santana was set to receive the bulk of opportunities. Yet, he was also supposed to split time with the left-handed hitting Alex Kirilloff. Santana is far superior from the right side of the plate, evidenced by his splits below: Versus RHP - .224/.324/.384, 272 plate appearances, 53 hits, 14 doubles, six home runs, 104 wRC+ Versus LHP - .307/.358/.580, 95 plate appearances, 27 hits, six doubles, six home runs, 162 wRC+ Santana has performed 62% better than the league average while hitting right-handed, and the club's initial plan was to maximize his exceptional performance from that side of the plate. However, Kirilloff's subpar performance at the plate and in the field (and eventual placement on the 10-day IL with a back injury) have led to him essentially being a nonfactor. The 26-year-old left-handed bat could theoretically return from the injured list sometime soon and reenter the lineup as Santana's platoon partner. But should the team actively pursue that option while contending with the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals for the AL Central crown and potential Wild Card seeding? It feels iffy. With Kirilloff possessing little to no present or future value for the Twins, does the organization have a backup plan for Santana at first base if he struggles significantly at the plate or sustains an injury that keeps him out for an extended period? Let's take a look. José Miranda At first glance, the most natural replacement for the one-time All-Star would be Miranda. The resurgent 26-year-old has demonstrated a respectable glove and understanding of first base and its nuances, posting a 1 OAA over 51 1/3 innings played at the position. Since Kirilloff was placed on the IL in mid-June, Miranda has been the only position player to patrol first base other than Santana, making five starts at the position over the past month. Miranda has spent most of his time playing third base due to Royce Lewis needing to miss extended time with various soft tissue injuries. However, with the expectation that he and Lewis will return from their respective injuries this Friday, he could be in line for more time at first base, particularly when the team faces right-handed starting pitchers. Miranda is Santana's most plausible back up option. Performing 50% better than average at the plate, Miranda has the bat skills and refined defensive acumen to play extended time at the position. Also, if Santana were to leave the Twins this offseason, Miranda could make sense as the team's long-term solution at the position. He would also work well in a platoon role, which takes us to our next candidate. Edouard Julien Julien has long existed in Twins fans' collective consciousness as a first base option, well in advance of his debut at the position last season against the Milwaukee Brewers on Aug. 22. However, sightings of the left-handed-hitting French Canadian playing the position have come few and far between, as he played only 17 1/3 innings at the position in the majors over 172 total career games. In theory, Julien would suffice as a platoon first baseman with Santana or Miranda. However, his production at the plate has regressed to the point where there is genuine concern over whether he will hit well enough to stay in the majors long term. Also, his glove and overall range at second base have improved so much that a significant amount of his value lies in his defensive acumen amid his struggles at the plate. Again, Julien makes sense as a first baseman, as he draws walks, (theoretically) hits for power, and has a high strikeout rate. However, he needs to show substantial improvements at the plate if he wants to be considered a viable MLB player, let alone an option at a spot where one's ability to contribute at the plate is a requirement, not a luxury. Julien has a brighter future than Kirilloff and is more likely to make an impact on the Twins down the stretch. Nevertheless, he would be a less-than-ideal option at first base, even if he is the team's third-best option, as long as Kirilloff's career with the Twins is in limbo. There's no obvious, long-term solution at first base for the organization right now. They can address that this winter, though. Right now, while they're stretched a little bit thin, Santana is a source of good feeling and good production, and Miranda is a solid secondary option. The rest will take care of itself, with time and the vagaries of the offseason. View full article

Inner-division trades are rare, especially when above-average starting pitching talent is involved. Do the Twins have any chance of acquiring this resurgent Detroit Tigers starter? In an article recently published by Dan Hayes of The Athletic, the Twins beat reporter noted, "Rumblings around the organization suggest the Twins are interested in acquiring a rental starting pitcher, something they've avoided doing in the past." Hayes immediately lists Toronto Blue Jays left-handed starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi as a potential "rental" option Minnesota could target. Admittedly, Kikuchi is an ideal target. He would cost roughly $3-4 million the rest of the season (a price tag even the Pohlad family could stomach) while likely being a more viable third-postseason starter than Bailey Ober. However, the monumental attendance increase this past weekend at Target Field could be what pushes the team to acquire an even more expensive yet appealing trade candidate than Kikuchi, and Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty would be the ideal fit. Signed to a one-year, $14 million contract by the Tigers after spending time with the St. Louis Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles last season, the 28-year-old righty has pitched exceptionally well with Detroit, posting a 3.13 ERA, 2.96 FIP, and a 127-to-17 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 2/3 innings pitched and 392 batters faced. A driving force in his mid-career rejuvenation has been improving his command, collaborating with Chris Fetter (one of the best pitching coaches in MLB), and having the privilege of most of his starts coming in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Flaherty has benefitted from these favorable circumstances, turning his slider and knuckle curve into two of the best breaking pitches in baseball. He has also improved his four-seam fastball, evidenced by a 64-point drop in opponent batting average and a similarly inspiring 68-point decrease in opponent wOBA. What makes the former first-round pick so enticing is that he meets the hyperspecific requirements of what the Twins need and can realistically pursue. He would instantly surpass the "Bailey Ober Threshold," becoming one of the team's three best starters for a hypothetical playoff scenario. He would cost roughly $5-6 million the rest of the season (a price tag Twins ownership could realistically stomach) while not possessing payroll ramifications beyond this season. Already facing the strong possibility of needing to shed payroll this upcoming season, Twins ownership will not allow the front office to acquire an arm with multiple years of control. Flaherty fits that mold to a tee. Admittedly, it is fun to speculate over hypothetical playoff scenarios. However, most of Flaherty's value resides in what he can offer the team now. Sitting four games behind the slumping Cleveland Guardians and tied with the presently surging Kansas City Royals, the Twins have reached a mid-season crossroads. López, Ryan, Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson have done an admirable job guiding the Twins toward possessing the tenth-best rotation in baseball, according to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR). However, the uninspiring trio of Chris Paddack, Louie Varland, and David Festa have left much to be desired out of the team's fifth and final rotation slot. Flaherty would provide an instant boost to an already above-average rotation and be a driving force toward creating what could be one of the most formidable and complete five-pitcher rotations in recent Twins memory. Despite this being an intriguing proposition, significant drawbacks could spoil one's appetite for acquiring the divisional foe. Despite having a recent track record of dealing with one another (Sawyer Gipson-Long for Michael Fulmer in 2022), current Tigers President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris did not facilitate that trade, meaning the two team's present relationship is uncertain. Making an inner-division trade is plausible, and the idea of paying an "in-division tax" is largely a fallacy. However, acquiring "Flare" would demand parting ways with significant prospect capital, meaning those who follow the Twins could run the risk of having to watch a prospect like Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, or Gabriel Gonzalez perform well in the same division as the Twins for seasons to come. While this proposition is scary on the surface, acquiring Flaherty is a risk Twins decision-makers should be willing to make. View full article

Undergoing his second bout with plantar fasciitis in consecutive seasons, the Twins star shortstop could take on a limited role in the second half of the season. That could mean him being the designated hitter more often. Were that to happen, though, it would force some other changes to the team's lineup. Image courtesy of © John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports After being diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in his left foot on May 24, 2023, Carlos Correa played in 91 games, slashing .238/.317/.400, with 82 hits, 12 home runs, and a 98 wRC+ over 388 plate appearances. Those who follow the Twins admired Correa's efforts, as he played an integral role in winning the AL Central and ending their 18-game playoff losing streak and 19-year playoff series losing streak. However, the team's star veteran started all 91 remaining regular season games and six postseason games at shortstop, while (interestingly) never spending time at designated hitter. In theory, a player suffering from constant pain in their left foot would want to spend as little time as possible standing and needing to put weight on and shift their feet. Yet, that is not the path Correa and the Twins decision-makers deemed most suitable last season. However, with the 2024 All-Star being diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in his right foot last week, the team and Correa could elect to take a more conservative approach toward combating the same podiatric ailment. After all, last year's strategy didn't work especially well. Luckily, the Twins' present 26-man roster construction would perfectly aid this potential course of action. If Correa were to DH more often, manager Rocco Baldelli could construct his infield in the following fashion: First base - Carlos Santana Second base - Willi Castro Third base - José Miranda Shortstop - Brooks Lee Lee has impressed defensively in his 11 games in the majors, illustrating plus range and a strong arm at second base, third base, and shortstop. Having netted 146 1/3 innings over 17 starts at shortstop in Triple-A, the 2022 first-round pick is the best candidate to replicate Correa's mix of plus offensive and defensive production at the position highest on the defensive spectrum. If Lee were to shoulder the burden of Correa's absence from the field, Castro could remain the everyday second baseman, with Miranda patrolling third base until Royce Lewis returns from the 10-day IL. Having this be the primary infield construction would allow the Twins to keep the driving force of the team's recent offensive explosion in the lineup nearly every game, while keeping their best player fresh and off his feet (or, more importantly, right foot) as they chase the Cleveland Guardians for the AL Central crown. Turning a star player who is offensively and defensively productive when healthy into a designated hitter has come back to bite the Twins before (hello, Byron Buxton's 2023 campaign). Yet, venturing down this path with Correa likely wouldn't hinder the team's ability to produce at the plate as a collective. When the team converted Buxton into a full-time designated hitter, there was little to no certainty in his ability to produce at the plate. On the other hand, Correa has been one of the best hitters in MLB this season, ranking 15th in MLB with a 152 wRC+ over 317 plate appearances. His bat will be valuable, if he can maintain even a watery facsimile of what we saw from him in the first half. Correa transitioning into the primary designated hitter would also create lineup ramifications for non-infielders, though. Trevor Larnach (who has started 32 games as designated hitter) would be forced to play in the corner outfield more often, which could lead to a decrease in playing time, as defensively superior options Matt Wallner and Max Kepler are getting the bulk of playing time in left and right field, respectively. Also, Correa taking the bulk of opportunities at designated hitter would likely turn Ryan Jeffers into a pure backup catcher, as he is defensively inferior to Christian Vázquez and has undergone a substantial slump at the plate since late April. However, transitioning Larnach, Jeffers, and potentially Wallner and Kepler into more limited roles wouldn't necessarily be a negative development. It would just be a big set of changes for Baldelli to manage. Also, the Twins lineup is much better than the unit Buxton was expected to headline last season. At this point last season, the Twins ranked 19th in MLB with a 96 wRC+. In comparison, the team currently ranks fourth in MLB with a 113 wRC+. A team once relying on players the likes of Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Donovan Solano, and Alex Kirilloff has transformed into being able to trust their star players, Correa and Buxton; the resurgent Miranda; a first-time All-Star in Castro; and a hot rookie, in Lee. They can slide Correa from the top of the defensive spectrum to the bottom of it without losing much, unless and until Lewis and Miranda are both healthy at the same time again. By then, maybe this problem will have subsided a bit for Correa. The Twins have the infield depth and offensive firepower necessary to keep Correa off his feet and keep him fresh for a late-season postseason push. Team decision-makers should strongly consider benefitting from this advantageous position to avoid potentially making the 29-year-old veteran's second bout with plantar fasciitis worse and reverting his ability to produce at the plate back to his lackluster 2023 form. View full article

Trueblood deserves credit for that one lol

Maybe these two AL Wild Card leaders can help one another by trading from strengths to address a key shortcoming. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Over 93 games played, Boston Red Sox second basemen have netted a 68 wRC+. This ranks them second-to-last in offensive production at the keystone position. Second-year player Enmanuel Valdez (85 wRC+ over 182 plate appearances) has spent the most time of any Red Sox player at the position, notching 385 1/3 innings over 51 games. However, the 25-year-old infielder has since been demoted to Triple-A Worcester. The team has also cycled through an olio of other options at second base. Here is how the pieces of that rough-hewn jigsaw puzzle have performed this season offensively: Vaughn Grissom (186 innings at 2B) - 1 wRC+ over 87 plate appearances David Hamilton (118 innings at 2B) - 100 wRC+ over 205 plate appearances Jamie Westbrook (58 innings at 2B) - 81 wRC+ over 30 plate appearances Pablo Reyes (39 innings at 2B) - 24 wRC+ over 64 plate appearances Boston has performed well above expectations this season, sitting only a game and a half back from the Twins for the second AL Wild Card and possessing a 41.4% chance of earning a playoff spot, according to FanGraphs. Much of the organization's newfound success can be attributed to a starting pitching renaissance (seventh-best staff ERA in MLB) cultivated by former Twins pitcher turned baseball executive Craig Breslow, pitching coach Andrew Bailey, and director pitching of pitching Justin Willard (Twins pitching coordinator from 2021-2023). Interestingly, the Twins have a serviceable second baseman waiting in the wings at Triple-A in Edouard Julien, and they also have a need for starting pitching help. Would it be wise for Twins decision-makers to send the left-handed hitter to Boston, in return for starting pitching help? Let's take a look. The Twins' offense has become a powerhouse, posting the highest batting average, slugging, wOBA, and wRC+ in baseball since Apr. 21. Having been the hottest lineup in MLB for well over two months has made a few fringy contributors expendable. Willi Castro, José Miranda, Brooks Lee, and the soon-to-return Royce Lewis have fixed themselves as irreplaceable members of the team's infield, making Julien less so. Julien struggled to produce offensively with the Twins in May (42 wRC+ over 81 plate appearances) and when he was first demoted to Triple-A St. Paul in early June. However, Julien has significantly improved in July, and looks more like the disciplined, power-hitting lefty who posted a 136 wRC+ over 408 plate appearances last season. His recent offensive resurgence is an encouraging sign that team decision-makers could use to their benefit come Jul. 30, particularly with the second base-needy Red Sox. Flush with starters and relievers who are performing well, Boston could use their abundance of arms to entice the Twins enough to acquire the intriguing left-handed hitting infielder. At first glance, starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford catch one's attention as appealing right-handed hurlers who could fortify Minnesota's rotation. However, they have become staples of the Sox's resurgent rotation, making it highly unlikely that Breslow and company part ways with them amid a playoff push, especially with the team directly in front of them in the Wild Card standings. However, there is a thought-provoking mock trade idea that could benefit both teams in the short and long term: Minnesota receives left-handed reliever Brennan Bernardino and infield prospect Cutter Coffey (FanGraphs's 25th-ranked Red Sox prospect) Boston receives infielder Edouard Julien Bernardino has been a cog in Boston's bullpen, notching a 1.69 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 22.1% strikeout rate over 32 innings pitched. The 32-year-old southpaw has also given up zero home runs this season, while leaving 82.5% of runners on base. He would instantly become Minnesota's best left-handed reliever, permitting the team to downgrade Steven Okert to a lower-leverage role, demote Kody Funderburk to Triple-A St. Paul, and potentially part ways with the aged and fading Caleb Thielbar. Coffey, 20, is an appealing middle infielder who could offset Julien's departure from the Twins system. He has an above-average arm at short (he threw 94 MPH as a pitcher in high school), while possessing plus raw power that could translate into formidable in-game power as he gets more at-bats. The recent trend of injuries to core infield members Lewis, Miranda, and Correa dampens the prospect of trading Julien in the immediate future. However, none of their injuries should hold them out long-term, meaning a lack of infield depth hope could easily be a non-issue come Jul. 30. In this hypothetical scenario, the Red Sox would acquire a steady defensive second baseman who performed 36% better than average at the plate just last season. He has starting second baseman potential and, at minimum, could function as a platoon partner with the right-handed hitting Hamilton. In return, the Twins would receive a reliever who would instantly become the club's best left-handed option out of the 'pen and could be a driving force in helping the team hunt down Cleveland in the standings. Also, Coffey would be a welcomed addition to a minor-league system rich with talent in the low minors. This challenge trade could be mutually beneficial for two parties residing right next to each other in the AL Wild Card standings. View full article

Will this 19-year-old pitching prospect be the next young, fire-throwing arm to vault up Twins prospect rankings? A little over two weeks ago, FanGraphs released their "Minnesota Twins Top 43 Prospects" list. Like most lists, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Brooks Lee inhabited the top three spots. However, The list quickly became unconventional, with Dameury Pena, Rayne Doncon, and Daiber De Los Santos (none in Twins Daily's 2024 Top Prospect Rankings) residing tenth, eleventh, and twelfth, respectively. Various other attention-catching placements can be found on FanGraphs's list, yet none were more surprising than 19-year-old starting pitching prospect Adrian Bohorquez claiming the 17th spot. What makes Bohorquez's occupation of the 17th spot in FanGraphs's ranking is that he is currently unranked in the following reputable platform's top prospect rankings: Twins Daily's Top 20 Twins Prospect Rankings Aaron Gleeman's 2024 Top 40 Twins Prospect Rankings at The Athletic Aram Leighton's 2024 Top 15 Twins Prospect Rankings at Just Baseball Jonathan Mayo's 2024 Twins Top 30 Prospect Rankings at MLB.com Baseball America(?) - (I don't have a membership, but I'm assuming Bohorquez is unranked) FanGraphs is always unconventional with its prospect rankings. For example, in 2023, they ranked then-30-year-old Double-A reliever Jordan Brink as the team's 33rd-best prospect. However, to find Bohorquez ranked 17th above well-renowned prospects like Tanner Schobel (21st), Ka'lai Rosario (30th), and Brandon Winokur (31st) is genuinely surprising. Beyond FanGraphs, the only other reputable source to place Bohorquez in their top rankings is Twins' prospect guru Tom Froemming, who has him ranked 28th. So, what prompted FanGraphs and Froemming to rank the hard-throwing righty so highly? Let's take a look. Bohorquez, 19, joined the Twins after signing a minor league contract with the organization on Jan. 15, 2023. The Venezuela-born pitcher was assigned to the Dominican Summer League (DSL) team in June, earning a 5.25 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and a .233 batting average against while allowing 21 hits over 24 innings pitched and netting an alarming 30-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Bohorquez struggled in his first cup of coffee in the DSL, which is expected of an 18-year-old making his first appearance in professional baseball. However, the now-19-year-old has jumped onto the scene in his second season in the Twins' minor league system. Upon being promoted to the Twins' Florida Complex League (FCL) squad, he has generated a 3.52 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and .171 batting average against while allowing 19 hits over 30 2/3 innings pitched. He has also illustrated a modest command improvement, posting a 34-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The steadily improving hurler also topped out at 97 miles per hour in his most recent stretch relief appearance in the FCL, demonstrating the velocity necessary to be taken seriously as a prospect and potentially earn a promotion to Single-A Fort Myers. Admittedly, it is hard to properly scout and assess Bohorquez's performance, pitch mix, and physical traits as there is limited DSL and FCL video for the general public to access. Despite appearing in the video for only ten seconds, it is evident that Bohorquez (who is listed at 6'1" and 190 lbs at MiLB.com) has an imposing stature that should bode well for him as he continues to mature and develop in the Twins minor league system. His best pitch is his fastball, which FanGraphs ranks 55/60 on their "20-80 scouting scale," meaning it is above average with the potential of being a plus pitch. FanGraphs also ranks his curveball at 55/60, with his cutter sitting at 45/50, meaning it is currently below average with the potential of becoming average. His most significant growth area as a pitcher is his command, which FanGraphs rates 25/55, meaning it is significantly well below-average with the potential of one day becoming above-average. Evidently, Bohorquez improving his command will likely be the deciding factor on if he will rise through the ranks or fizz out in the low minors. Those closely following Twins' prospects have witnessed the ascension of promising young arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Andrew Morris in the past two seasons. A sustainable pitching pipeline (buzzword, I know) ripe with homegrown talent is beginning to emerge (if it hasn't already), and having young, talented, hard-throwing arms like Bohorquez enter the blooming process this summer further emphasizes the encouraging state of the organization's long-term pitching depth. Nevertheless, Bohorquez is an intriguing, hard-throwing starting pitching prospect who could eventually pop up on more Twins' top prospect lists if he improves his command and continues to pitch well for the FCL squad. View full article

Dan Hayes of The Athletic stated that Vázquez "made changes to his lower half in his stance and is positioning his hands higher." Here's the article if you are interested: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5625498/2024/07/09/twins-christian-vazquez-sunday-celebration/?source=emp_shared_article

The vast majority of Vázquez's value resides in his defense, which has been great since he joined the Twins. Also, I would argue that recent performance is most relevant when analyzing a player.

No, the Twins front office isn't falling victim to a harmful cognitive bias by keeping the 33-year-old backstop. They have better reasons. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports The term "sunk-cost fallacy" is often used in professional sports. While this distortionary influence exists in some situations (e.g., Anthony Rendon and the Los Angeles Angels), it wouldn't be appropriate to describe the situation the Twins find themselves in with catcher Christian Vázquez. Yes, he has been dreadful at the plate during most of his tenure with Minnesota. However, that doesn't mean he isn't providing any value. The Twins and Vázquez find themselves in a mutually beneficial relationship, even if it isn't manifesting in an easily identifiable way (aside from, you know, the odd walkoff homer). Vázquez is the superior defensive option behind the plate, and various metrics support this notion. Here is how the 33-year-old backstop fares in the following defensive metrics at Baseball Prospectus: Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA) - 9th Errant Pitches Above Average (EPAA) - 17th According to Baseball Prospectus's advanced metrics, Vázquez has created the ninth-most called strikes for his team, illustrating that he is an above-average pitch framer. He is also the 17th-best catcher in MLB at blocking pitches, not only avoiding passed balls but stopping wild pitches from resulting in advancement by the runner(s). These two metrics suggest that the two-time World Series champion is one of baseball's best receivers, which is a critical trait for a pitching staff that aggressively attacks the strike zone. Vázquez is also excelling in the following defensive metrics at Baseball Savant: 78th-percentile at Blocks Above Average (BAA) 55th-percentile at Caught Stealing Above Average (CSAA) 92nd-percentile at Framing 41st-percentile at Pop Time Baseball Savant rating Vázquez in the 92nd percentile in framing and 78th percentile in blocking further illustrates how vital he is for the Twins' pitching staff. Admittedly, he is subpar at controlling the running game by deterring basestealers, but variables such as the speed of the baserunner and the pitcher's ability to keep them close play more significant roles in suppressing stolen bases than a catcher's arm strength. Nevertheless, Vázquez is arguably a top-five defensive catcher in baseball, which provides significant value for a team over a 162-game season and the postseason. Also, Vázquez's offensive woes have been overstated of late. Yes, he was well below average to begin the season (7 wRC+ over 116 plate appearances), but he has picked it up of late. Since Jun. 1, the Twins' primary backstop has hit .271/.302/.508, with a 126 wRC+ over 65 plate appearances, including a momentous walk-off home run against his former team, the Houston Astros, this past Sunday. The average slash line for MLB catchers is .237/.301/.385, with a 94 wRC+, meaning Vázquez has been far clear of average for the position for over a month. His resurgence has come at a critical time, as fellow catcher Ryan Jeffers has cooled off from his hot start to the year, hitting just .194/.276/.313 with a well below-average 71 wRC+ in the same stretch. Vázquez has been the team's best catcher over their recent hot streak, providing a plus bat and top-tier defensive acumen. The notion that Vázquez provides little to no value for the Twins on the field needs to end, as it is objectively incorrect. He is one of the best defensive catchers in the sport, and has quietly become one of the hottest-hitting players at the position over the past six weeks, which is a substantial enough sample size to suggest he may have changed his approach at the plate for the better. Also, what are the real alternatives? What could the team actually do to improve at the position? Call up Jair Camargo, who has a .762 OPS against Triple-A pitching and the benefit of ABS in his favor? It would be wrong for the Twins to eat a significant portion of Vázquez's contract and replace him with Camargo. The 25-year-old Triple-A catcher is significantly worse defensively and would, at the very best, provide .080 to .100 extra points in OPS, and even that feels like an overly optimistic outlook. The team could give Jeffers more starts behind the plate. Yet, mixing his recent cold stretch at the plate with the fact that he is a significantly worse framer (16th-percentile at Baseball Savant) and blocker (22nd-percentile BAA at Baseball Savant) suggests that is an avenue team decision-makers should avoid until his bat heats back up or he demonstrates significant improvement in the field. Even before accounting for the organization's preference to keep their catchers fresh by alternating their starts, Vázquez provides significant value to the Twins despite his hefty price tag and a slow start at the plate. There is no sunk cost. He is presently the Twins' best option behind the plate, and parting ways with him would send ripples through the team's pitching staff. View full article