Could Tanner Hall Be the Twins' Next Prominent Pitching Development Success Story?

The Twins love to target college starting pitchers in the draft, add velocity to their four-seam fastball, and help them develop MLB-caliber second and third pitches. From Bailey Ober to more recent developmental success stories like David Festa and Zebby Matthews, President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey has delivered the much-desired "pitching pipeline," a buzzword many have used in the past to criticize and demean the organization's ability to draft and develop home-grown arms.

Andrew Morris, Jaylen Nowlin, and Christian MacLeod have continued the trend of former college pitchers performing well enough to quickly progress through the minor-league ranks and join the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge relatively early in their developmental cycles. While Morris, Nowlin, and MacLeod could become relevant depth options in the team's long-term rotation or bullpen plans, another former college arm residing in the low minors could be fairly close behind them.

Tanner Hall, 22, was selected by Minnesota with the 114th pick of the 2023 MLB Draft, out of the University of Southern Mississippi. Hailing from Brian Dozier and Matt Wallner's alma mater, the steady righthander produced a 2.48 ERA there, while striking out 124 hitters over 112 innings pitched for the Golden Eagles over three seasons.

Pitching in the heart of the Bible Belt, Hall was one of the most successful Division I pitchers in 2023. He earned consensus All-American status. Like most drafted college arms, Hall took the rest of the 2023 season off after being selected by the Twins. He has pitched exclusively at Single-A since making his professional baseball debut early this season, posting a 5.22 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over eight starts and six relief appearances for the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels. Although his numbers on the surface underwhelm, though, his underlying metrics tell a different story. Over 39 2/3 innings pitched, Hall has mustered a 3.86 FIP and 3.44 xFIP.

Hall's inflated ERA is seemingly the result of poor luck on balls put in play, evidenced by opposing hitters generating a .375 BABIP against him. He has generated a 52% ground ball rate, with 52.8% of balls put in play against him being pulled by opposing hitters. The mix of Hall's high ground ball rate and ballooned opponent BABIP indicates that he is presumably falling victim to balls sneaking through the infield. These unfortunate results are likely the product of poor infield defense in the lower minors. Nevertheless, Hall has performed well when in control, netting an inspiring 52-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio and allowing just three home runs over 184 total batters faced.

The key to him is his fascinating pitch mix. The soft-tossing right-hander utilizes a sinker, slider, and changeup to contest hitters of both handedness effectively. All of his pitches move laterally.

Hall uses his sinker and slider as his primary modus operandi for attacking right-handed hitters. His slider, which moves away from same-handed batters, works as a great complement to his in-breaking sinker. This traditional "east-west" approach to combating same-handed hitters is in no way a new or unique approach for right-handed hurlers. However, Hall does possess a distinctive quirk that makes him stand out.

Hall uses a Vulcan-style changeup grip, similar to Dodgers great closer Éric Gagné. Coined after the fictional extraterrestrial humanoids in Star Trek, his change possesses fascinating cut action, relative to his sinker. This peculiarity helps make his changeup (which rates as a 60 on FanGraphs's "20-to-80" scouting scale) especially effective against left-handed hitters. While Hall has an intriguing pitch mix, he has command concerns he needs to iron out before getting a promotion. However, his 9.8% walk rate is a promising development that indicates he may have already made sustainable adjustments.

From the past in Ober, to the present in Festa, and looking to the near future in Matthews, the Twins have been able to draft college pitchers in mid-to-later rounds, increase the velocity on their primary hard pitches, improve their secondary pitches, and turn them into viable MLB-caliber prospects. Hall has demonstrated promising results at Single-A, and if he can improve his sinker velocity (presently hovering around 91-92 MPH) while solidifying his slider and truly formidable changeup, he could be next in the long line of former college pitchers to blossom under the organization's pitching development program.

Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!