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Woof Bronzer

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Everything posted by Woof Bronzer

  1. Woof Bronzer
    Does Buxton walk around the bases, but jog around the outfield? Sprint around the bases, and then sprint from center to right center. Tell me if it's the same amount of work or not.
  2. Woof Bronzer
    I have never said DHing and playing CF have the exact same physical requirements, so we can put that talking point to rest. Again, I am reacting to exactly what the Twins have told us: he's physically unable to play CF, but he's physically able to run the bases. My belief is that the Twins are playing an injured player because....I don't know, honestly. They're desperate? They don't want it to look like their plan for him didn't work? Regardless, the decision is hurting both the team and Buxton.
  3. Woof Bronzer
    Now we're concerned with him trotting out to center? You may as well factor in every step he takes all day. Is he in a wheelchair from the time he wakes up til he gets to the ballpark? If not, how come? All that walking around is wear and tear, no? What you are describing is an injured player. It's really not that complicated, except that for some reason the Twins are refusing to put an injured player on the injured list.
  4. Woof Bronzer
    Everyone knows there's a difference. That's not what the Twins are saying, though. They are saying he is "physically unable to play CF". If he's physically unable to play CF he's physically unable to DH too, and should be on the IL.
  5. Woof Bronzer
    Apologies - my frustration with the club is certainly making its way into my tone :)
  6. Woof Bronzer
    Well, preventative maintenance - avoiding all that wear and tear - is not the same as "physically unable to play the position". An acute knee injury can happen just as likely from running the bases than running down a fly ball. Why don't they just IL him?
  7. Woof Bronzer
    You discussed Buxton, agreeing that he should be IL'd. I agree with your agreement, because it makes no sense that he physically can't play CF but can run the bases. I don't know, figuring out the Buxton situation is critical to both the short- and long-term future of this franchise, sorry that people care about it.
  8. Woof Bronzer
    If this was the case though how is he (theoretically, at least, ha ha) able to run the bases? I get that Rocco is tired of being asked this question, but he doesn't seem to grasp that the question keeps getting asked because the only information we've gotten from the team is nonsensical. How can someone be physically unable to run around the outfield while simultaneously being physically able to run around the bases? This situation is developing major "bilateral leg weakness" vibes.
  9. Woof Bronzer
    I should have clarified, I'm not advocating for any firings right now. In fact it appears we are in the exact same spot: firing Rocco won't matter because Falvine will just replace him with a clone. And as much as I want Falvine gone it just aint happening mid season.
  10. Woof Bronzer
    Because a) preseason expectations are opinion, not fact, and different people have different predictions. If you thought they would win 90 games this year, they are significantly underachieving. Conversely if you thought they would win 75 games they are actually overachieving. Do you think they are overachieving? b) preseason predictions don't factor in injuries, minor league call ups, trades, etc. They are an opinion based on a roster snapshot in time. IMO they're worthless come opening day. c) a simple record does not tell the whole story. As evidence, I cite the 2023 MN Twins. They are losing tons of winnable games due to record-pace hitting futility, poor fundamentals, poor bullpen management, poor roster construction, lack of effort/caring, etc. If they were scrappy and losing tight games due to a lot of bad breaks, different story, but if we only judge them against the preseason predications we'd say all of those failures/flaws are acceptable because they are on pace to meet someone's preseason prediction. d) and perhaps most importantly, it lets the team off the hook. Instead of owning the 2023 failure the club and its defenders can say, "hey this is who we thought they were, nothing to see here" which basically guarantees 2024 will be just like 2023, 2022, and 2021. So I guess I'll ask: given that the club is right on track toward your prediction, do you think this has been a successful season so far?
  11. Woof Bronzer
    I generally agree with the first part here, but who determines the "realistic expectations"? And are preseason expectations really the main thing clubs should be judged against? I'd also add that winning 85-88 games in a competitive division is a vastly different proposition than winning the same number of games against this historically bad division - it may literally be the worst division in the history of baseball. I don't think this was anticipated in the preseason predictions. Not to mention the eye test - just watch this club play. Does anyone think this is working?
  12. Woof Bronzer
    This is why I've always said the type of advanced sabermetrics like WAR, FIP can and should be used as a tool to help FOs identify and evaluate talent in roster building, but since the formulas account for things that didn't actually happen (e.g.. normalizing for park), they should not be used to measure current performance.
  13. Woof Bronzer
    I tend to agree with @chpettit19 that nothing Rocco says is especially meaningful. However I am very interested to hear what the FO thinks about how this season has played out, how their trades have turned out, whether the new trainer is in any way better than the one they fired, if they still believe the bullpen "isn't a priority", why Pagan and Kepler are on the team, what concrete steps the organization is taking to turn this around, etc. I continue to fear the FO is just deluding themselves into believing "it'll turn" and if so, it's a much bigger problem than Rocco's pressers.
  14. Woof Bronzer
    This is what happens when you prioritize process over results. I am not at all convinced Falvine think there is a problem here, just like they didn't think there was a problem last year (blaming it on injuries/trainer, publicly stating that the bullpen wasn't a priority, etc). That's really the only explanation for not changing anything.
  15. Woof Bronzer
    But my point is that all "fresh relievers" are not created equally. Replacing Gray with Duran is a much different proposition than replacing him with Moran. The specifics of the situation have to factor into the decision. "Any reliever is better than a laboring starter" is just factually false, so if that's the process here I'd say it's pretty flawed.
  16. Woof Bronzer
    I mean, results matter...the issue I have with the decision to pull Gray - and a lot of analytics-heavy decisions - is the focus seems to be purely on Gray and not on who is going to replace him (and the domino effect for the rest of the game). Yes, Gray was laboring a bit....but on the whole he is unquestionably a better pitcher than Moran. So, the question becomes, is a laboring Gray still a better option than a fresh Moran? Not saying this is a definitive "yes" (though I really don't trust Moran at all) but I don't see this question being asked frequently in these situations.
  17. Woof Bronzer
    Just....wow.
  18. Woof Bronzer
    I'd love someone in the media to ask Falvine (if Falvine can be found) why the injuries have not improved under the new trainer.
  19. Woof Bronzer
    Toronto lost a game by trotting out the worst reliever in MLB over the past 4 years who has a 15.5 ERA this season when entering with a lead and has singlehandedly lost the team like 10 games in 1.5 years, yet somehow remains on the roster because the FO would rather lose games than admit that they were wrong to sign the worst reliever in MLB? The odds of that happening in back to back games with different teams must have been astronomical.
  20. Woof Bronzer
    The "Ks don't matter" thing is a perfect illustration of the fallacy behind extreme analytics: it relies on the idea that players are Strat-o-Matic robots who are preordained a certain amount of outs every year. Ipso facto, it doesn't matter what kind of outs they are, they're gonna happen regardless. But this is just flat wrong. Baseball is a sport played by humans, and hitting happens one at bat at a time. Each at bat is going to have one of 3 outcomes: walk (or hbp); put the ball in play; or K. K is the worst outcome on the whole, and it's not even close. (Yes, things like GIDP can happen when you put the ball in play. These are far more rare than balls in play becoming hits though. And the Twins have 10x the K outs vs the GIDP outs.) Strikeouts matter, they always have, and they always will.
  21. Woof Bronzer
    Oh I agree with you, managers get fired after extensions all the time and Rocco is just a symptom of the problem. My concern is with the thinking behind it, which seems to be a mentality and approach that doesn't prioritize results. We see this same mentality game after game with guys who shrug their way to a dozen Ks and another loss. There's something stinky in the water over at 1 Twins Way and the longer we keep rolling with this FO the worse it's going to get.
  22. Woof Bronzer
    I get it, not saying he should have been fired after 2021, but he certainly didn't need to be handed an extension either. The fact of the situation is, this FO extended Rocco after losing 89 games AND neglected to tell anyone for 18 months because they obviously knew the optics would be bad. That says an awful lot to me about this FO's philosophy and the Twins culture, and I don't think it's a coincidence that this team hasn't had a pulse in more than a month.
  23. Woof Bronzer
    The Twins won 73 games in 2021. Rocco was rewarded for this result with a contract extension.
  24. Woof Bronzer
    In the extreme analytics world, process is far more important than results. Recall that the only person held accountable after the last 2 debacles was the trainer - a guy who is part of the "process" but has nothing to do with the results.
  25. Woof Bronzer
    I continue to believe the simplest explanation for the strikeouts is that Popkins is teaching exactly what the FO wants him to teach, and the players are doing exactly as they are being taught. FO has 1 offensive philosophy: grip it n rip it. As a hitting coach Popkins is tasked not with teaching professional at bats and fundamental baseball, but only things like launch angle and exit velocity (probably accompanied by an overwhelming amount of data and video). There's a reason the FO hires young, hungry, inexperienced guys with little to no MLB equity like Rocco and Popkins: they want to be able dictate everything without question. Which is why firing Popkins or Rocco won't matter, Falvine will just replace them with clones who will carry out their extreme analytics agenda with a nod and a smile.
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