Lou Hennessy

The Twins took a chance on the standout amateur out of Hawai’i with their final pick in the 2020 draft that was limited by the COVID-19 pandemic. Flash forward three seasons, and his outlook is polarizing to many evaluators. So where does Kala’i Rosario go from here? Image courtesy of Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports It’s easy to get excited about a powerful showcase in the Arizona Fall League. Seeing intriguing prospects succeed against other top minor leaguers is bound to create some buzz. And if all goes well, that buzz propels the young player into their pivotal next season. That’s what Twins’ prospect Kala’i Rosario (Twins Daily’s No. 11 prospect) hopes for. While his brief 25-game stint in the AFL featured a reality check in the second half, he made a name for himself in his first couple weeks in the desert. Ultimately, he finished that campaign with an overall slash line of .214/.333/.483, clubbing seven home runs and three doubles along the way. That roller coaster ride has become the norm for the 21-year-old corner outfielder. He’s shown immense power from the right side of the plate, and his offensive production has been above-average in his three seasons in the Twins’ system. But as his career progresses to the upper levels of the minor leagues, questions remain about his approach at the plate and his future as a potential option at the game’s highest level. So what should we make of the Twins’ highly-polarizing prospect? What To Like Even with the question marks surrounding various aspects of his game, Rosario has shown the ability to succeed at each level he’s seen in the minor leagues. Even in the Florida State League, which usually suppresses raw power, he could drive the ball reasonably well, with 36 extra-base hits in 109 games. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen acknowledged the flaws in his swing but lauded his ability to continue growing as his career progresses. “He has too much power to dismiss entirely, and he’s started to show an ability to make adjustments,” they said in their midseason prospect rankings in June. “So far in 2023, Rosario has narrowed his approach. He’s swinging and striking out less and walking more often.” His first season with High-A Cedar Rapids showed some of this newfound patience. Rosario nearly doubled his walk rate from 2022, and while his strikeout rate is still higher than many are comfortable with, it did decrease by a few points to 29.6%. That growth in swing selection led to his breakout as a professional hitter, and he finished the season with a .832 OPS (133 wRC+). Rosario put on such a show for the Kernels that he earned the Midwest League MVP. He’s shown plus range in the corner outfield, with solid speed and a strong arm that led to 23 outfield assists over the last two seasons. While it’s not his calling card by any measure, evaluators think he should be passable enough to be an everyday right fielder. What To Worry About Like many hitters this front office has drafted since taking the helm, there’s a fair amount of swing and miss to Rosario’s game. While that alone isn’t enough to dismiss a player completely, evaluators are worried about his swing path and his ability to make adjustments as the quality of opposing pitchers continues to improve going forward. “His high-effort swing has zero precision and a flat, almost downward-cutting angle that generates lots of opposite field contact,” Longenhagen said in the abovementioned article. So, while the exit velocity on some of the mammoth shots he hits looks enticing, Rosario seems plagued by the same pitfalls as hitters like Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, and even his AFL teammate Aaron Sabato. And as it looks right now, he doesn’t have the secondary tools to elevate him to the next level if he can’t continue improving his approach. Rosario is still a ways off from any potential big-league playing time, but he finds himself in a crowded picture of options for the Twins’ outfield in the coming years. He’ll need to take another leap like the one he just took at High-A if he wants to break through as a genuine possibility anytime soon. He currently finds himself blocked by several team-controlled former prospects (Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, etc.). Chasing him are other higher-ceiling prospects, such as Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. So, while there isn’t some career-defining decision looming for Rosario, he will need to have another breakout in the upper levels of the minor leagues if he is going to establish himself as a building block-quality prospect. What do you think? Do you anticipate Rosario taking another step in 2024? What do you like or dislike about his game? Let us know what you think in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

The Twins made a modest investment in Nelson Cruz when they signed the then-38-year-old before the 2019 season, and were repaid exponentially with more than two years of offensive firepower. Can Justin Turner fill a similar role for the club this time around? Image courtesy of Brian Fluharty, Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports As the Twins jump head-first into the offseason, their needs are pretty straightforward. They have to figure out how to replicate Sonny Gray’s production atop the starting rotation, they need to find a centerfielder to replace Michael A. Taylor, and they should look to fortify their relief corps. Along with that trio of items on their checklist, the club will be on the lookout for a middle-of-the-lineup bat that can mash left-handed pitching. Could Justin Turner fit that bill? Sure, there are plenty of reasons to be hesitant about bringing in a veteran of 15 years at this stage of his career. Turner is entering his age-39 season, is becoming increasingly limited defensively, and will almost certainly command a two-year deal on the open market. But those same factors were true for Nelson Cruz heading into 2019, and he is bound to go down as one of the best free agent signings in team history. So would Turner be a good fit for a similar role with the Twins in 2024? The Need The Twins were delighted to get as much value as they did out of veteran Donovan Solano this season, especially considering his affordable $2 million price tag. He hit .282/.369/.391 (116 wRC+) while playing in 134 games, mostly seeing time as the right-handed side of a platoon at first base. Now that he’s a free agent, the Twins will surely want to fill his hole on the roster with more offensive ceiling, but without giving up much on the defensive side of the coin. They need someone who can provide a major boost against left-handed pitching, but can also hold their own if given at-bats against righties. And with the departure of a handful of respected players leaving the clubhouse for free agency, the Twins may want another respected veteran to come in and help establish a winning culture in the dugout. If possible, someone with a plethora of experience having success in the postseason would be icing on the cake. While the Twins’ financial capacity is still being determined as they wait for a new TV deal, the assumption is that they will have the ability to take on at least one or two mid-level salaries as they try to fortify the roster. But with so many young sluggers emerging as options for the big league club, with even more shining in the minor leagues, the Twins will want the flexibility of a short-term deal if they are to cast their line into the free agency pond. The Fit That’s where Turner fits in rather seamlessly. He’s coming off of yet another stellar campaign with the Boston Red Sox where he hit .276/.345/.455 (114 wRC+), belting 23 home runs and driving in 96 runs in 146 games played. While that type of production is a slight step down from his heyday with the Los Angeles Dodgers, it shows that he still possesses a game-changing bat even in his late-thirties. He is still highly potent against southpaws, where he hit .285/.372/.528 (142 wRC+), and he held his own against righties, hitting .273/.335/.430 (105 wRC+). Simply put, Turner’s bat is his calling card, and he’s shown that there is still plenty left in the tank from an offensive standpoint. While most of his time was spent in the designated hitter role in 2023, he did play 41 games at first base, and 17 games between second and third base. He looked stretched at the hot corner, and just passable at second, but Turner looked rock-solid as a first-baseman when the Sox needed him. His play was worth three Defensive Runs Saved in that limited time, which would be a massive improvement over what the Twins got from Solano (-3 DRS) and Alex Kirilloff (-8 DRS) in 2023. With Solano entering free agency, and Kirilloff’s health remaining a question mark, Turner could be an excellent platoon bat that remains valuable as an everyday player if needed. The Contract Turner became a free agent last week by opting out of the second year of his deal with Boston, instead choosing a buyout worth roughly $6.7 million. Had he decided to remain a Red Sox, he would’ve secured a $13.4 million paycheck. But opting out gives him the opportunity to seek another multi-year commitment that he can add to his buyout bonus. Given the fact that he will be entering his age-39 season, a two-year pact seems like the sweet spot for what he should be seeking. For what it’s worth, the Red Sox could still try to bring him back. He made it clear that he enjoyed his time in Boston, and they recognize the strong season he just completed. However, they find themselves saddled with the burden of a few other pricey contracts for players that are likely past their prime. Chris Sale, Trevor Story and Kenley Jansen are owed a combined $89.3 million over the next two years, with another $46.6 million on the hook if Story declines to opt out of his contract after 2025. The Twins are familiar with the type of deal that will likely be required to nab Turner. They signed Cruz to a one-year, $14 million contract for 2019, with a $12 million club option for the following season. It was a no-brainer for them to pick up that 2020 option, and they then inked him for $13 million in 2021. If they do bring Turner in on a short-term deal and things go south for the club, they could even ship him off at the trade deadline as they did with Cruz in 2021. But regardless, Turner shouldn’t command a lengthy deal that hampers the club’s future, and he has the ceiling to be a true difference-maker in the lineup. What do you think? Would Justin Turner be a good fit for the Twins if he were to command a similar deal to Cruz prior to 2019? Who else would you rather see the Twins bring in as an affordable, middle-of-the-order bat? Let us know your thoughts in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

The Twins were carried by pitching for much of the 2023 season, especially when it came to the starting rotation. But how would their frontline arms match up with the starting corps of the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks? How far off are they from looking like a World Series-caliber rotation? Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports While the Twins could not reach the World Series this year. We can assign blame to various factors, including lack of offense at critical moments, poor timing defensively at others, and savvy postseason-experienced veterans of an American League dynasty may have been too much to handle in a best-of-5 series. It takes a complete team to have success in the postseason. (And a little bit of good fortune.) But when you focus on the starting rotation, the Twins make an interesting comparison with those currently in the World Series. So, how do they stack up against these championship contenders? Staff Aces Rangers: Jordan Montgomery (3.22 ERA, 188 IP, 21.4% strikeout rate, 3.7% walk rate, 4.3 fWAR) Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (3.47 ERA, 210 IP, 26% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 5.2 fWAR) Twins: Pablo López (3.66 ERA, 194 IP, 29.2% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 4.5 fWAR) As it stands, each of these three arms had stellar seasons, even ace-level in some respects. They each stayed healthy throughout the year, starting at least 32 games. All three had strong strikeout and walk rates under the hood and found themselves in the top 13 regarding wins above replacement for a starting pitcher. Montgomery was a mid-season addition at the trade deadline and had a fantastic two-month stretch with his new team, where he had a 2.79 ERA across 11 starts, even though his strikeout numbers were just OK. Gallen has been one of the best starting pitchers since being traded to Arizona in 2019, and he has taken a significant leap to ace status since the beginning of the 2022 season. The Snakes' top arm is becoming quite the household name after pitching 396 innings of 3.04 ERA ball over the last two seasons. These stats are purely looking at each player's regular season numbers. But if we consider the two brilliant performances that López accomplished in the playoffs, this one looks even closer. If the Twins had pushed the Astros series to a winner-take-all Game 5, López would have had another chance to shine under a national spotlight. With another start like his first two in the postseason (0.71 ERA, 12 ⅔ innings pitched, ten strikeouts, three walks), the Twins' ace might have a big enough reputation to top the other two arms, but instead the edge has to go to Gallen. Next arms up: Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA, 144 IP, 22.9% K-rate, 3.8% BB-rate, 2.5 fWAR) Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA, 177 ⅔ IP, 25.9% K-rate, 9.6% BB-rate, 3.2 fWAR) Twins: Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA, 184 IP, 24.3% K-rate, 7.3% BB-rate, 5.3 fWAR) There is a case that Gray had a superior season to López, but for this exercise, we'll have him line up as the second starter. Considering how the two lined up in the Wild Card series, it's only fair. Again, all three starters in this matchup had rock-solid campaigns, though Eovaldi missed a handful of turns in the rotation due to forearm soreness. Still, each pitcher showed top-of-the-rotation stuff when healthy and arms that you would easily roll out early in a playoff series. Eovaldi has lost a couple of ticks on his once-electric fastball, which is understandable for a 33-year-old veteran. But he still found a way to get out of jams by inducing plenty of ground balls (86th percentile). He was one of the best at limiting damage with runners in scoring position, where his opponents hit an anemic .168 against him (third-best in baseball, according to Inside Edge). That's extremely valuable, especially in high-octane settings like the MLB playoffs. Kelly has some of the best off-speed stuff in the game but showed a tendency to lose control in 2023. His chase rate was in the 88th percentile, and like Eovaldi, he got plenty of ground balls (68th percentile) to help him wriggle out of danger. While he isn't on the same level as Gallen, Kelly is still a formidable opponent. Gray had the best season of his career in 2023, and he will almost certainly find himself getting some Cy Young award consideration. He was as consistent as any pitcher in the game, with only two blemishes on his 32-start game log. Gray was the best of these three pitchers at limiting hard contact, especially on pitches in the strike zone (.394 opponent slugging, second-best in MLB). That helps to provide some context as to how he avoided giving up the long ball (just eight home runs allowed all season). Regular season numbers might point to Gray having the edge, but his start against the Astros in Game 3 of the ALDS proved how anything can happen in one game. The Twins might not have Sonny Gray to include in this list next year, yet his abilities equal that of a good number two starter in any playoff series. Rounding out the playoff rotations: Rangers: Max Scherzer (3.77 ERA, 152 ⅔ IP, 28% K-rate, 7.2% BB-rate, 2.2 fWAR) Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt (5.72 ERA, 96 IP, 22.3% K-rate, 6.2% BB-rate, 0.3 fWAR) Twins: Joe Ryan (4.51 ERA, 161 ⅔ IP, 29.3% K-rate, 5.1% BB-rate, 2.2 fWAR) Here's where things get dicey for all three clubs. The rotations take very similar turns at this point in a series, as all three of these arms are likely facing short starts in high-pressure games. Scherzer is a slam dunk for the Hall of Fame when that time comes, but he finds himself playing through a nagging injury that kept him out of the rotation for weeks leading up to the ALCS. Still, the allure that made him an enticing trade acquisition at the deadline remains. He still possesses elite expected numbers (86th percentile xERA, 90th percentile xBA) and has an extensive history of turning it on in October (3.86 ERA, 29.2% K-rate across 140 career postseason innings). But he was lit up in his two starts in the ALCS, where he allowed seven earned runs in just 6⅔ innings pitched. Pfaadt was one of the better pitching prospects in Arizona's farm system coming into this season. His regular season numbers may have been pedestrian, if not disappointing, but he has been a revelation in the postseason. Across his four October starts, the righty has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP across 16 ⅔ innings pitched. Ryan should be considered an exciting arm for Twins fans going forward, but his lone playoff start against the Astros showed he's still a step behind the veterans in his rotation. In 2023, Ryan gave up home runs at an alarming rate (1.78 HR/9) and ran out of gas in the second half. His strikeout-to-walk rate shows there is still a lot to like for the 27-year-old, and it's encouraging to see him start his off-season with an evaluation from Driveline. Still, the edge has to go to the savvy veteran in Scherzer or the hot hand in Pfaadt. What do you think? How do you see the Twins' rotation matching the Rangers and Diamondbacks' rotations? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

The Twins’ season ended over a week ago, but Pablo López is already reaching new heights. How good was the club’s budding ace, and what does his next level look like? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports This year, there weren’t many notable individual accomplishments in the Twins’ postseason run. But undoubtedly, one of the shining achievements was staff ace Pablo López emerging as a true frontline starter on a national stage. In his two starts, the 27-year-old righty totaled 12 ⅔ innings pitched with 10 strikeouts and three walks, giving up just one earned run while he led his team to two massive wins. We’re talking about a tiny sample size with just two games, but these performances came after the best season of López’s career. He had a career-high in innings pitched (194), strikeout percentage (29.2%), and fWAR (4.5) in his first year with the Twins and named as a finalist for this year’s Gold Glove award among pitchers. When asked about his first season with the Twins organization at various post-game appearances throughout the year, López lauded the information he received from the club’s baseball operations department, especially as it pertained to building and developing a sweeper. “The Minnesota Twins are willing to provide us with every single resource, every single opportunity to get better as a player,” he said in a press conference in late April after signing a four-year extension with the club. “In spring training, the first thing we did was sit in a room for three days straight to really get to know my identity. Then it was finding out what that next gear is that we can find.” López and the Twins indeed found that next gear, and it led him to an All-Star selection and his team to their first playoff win in nearly two decades. But with that memorable season in the rearview mirror, he is already gearing up for 2024. López was recently spotted at Driveline’s facility and underwent a thorough assessment. For those who don’t know, Driveline is a data-driven development program that has been successful for countless major leaguers, especially pitchers. Their research has a reputation for helping pitchers gain strength and velocity, using state-of-the-art tools to train and develop their clients. Driveline isn’t new to López, or the Twins, for that matter. The righty also visited their facility before the start of this season. But now that he’s shown considerable progress in a career year, López, the staff at Driveline, and the Twins’ training staff can access even more data as they determine what clicked for him in 2023. The goal would be to maintain that success while finding that next gear, as López said. So, what does that next level look like? López was above average in most areas in 2023, so where could he find significant improvement? While his four-seam fastball was still a great option in his repertoire, it got hit harder than his sweeper, changeup, and even his curveball. Opponents hit .268 on that offering, with a rather-high .468 slugging percentage. Now, there is a lot of nuance as to why that could be, and more brilliant minds would better diagnose any hypothetical issue with the pitch. But adding more velocity to his heater (which averaged a respectable 94.9 MPH in 2023) could be that marginal improvement that pays dividends in the future. It could be that extra gear that helps López continue climbing that hill. And Driveline can help him figure out when and how to switch gears as he makes his ascent. That next level could mean a new high-water mark for innings pitched if he can stay healthy as he did this season. It could mean even more strikeouts if he can get his fastball to play up or add a few ticks of velocity. It could mean even further development of his sweeper, which he used to get a swing-and-miss 36.6% of the time. Those could lead to additional accolades for López, whether that means getting the starting nod on Opening Day, another All-Star selection, or even Cy Young award consideration. But if you ask López what that next level is, he almost certainly would talk about what it would mean for his team. That means more postseason appearances and even further success. “I just want to go out there and give the team the best chance to win,” he said in an in-game interview during his gem of a start in Game 2 versus the Astros. “It’s the preparation, routine, and discipline that gets you here.” What do you think? What does Pablo López’s next level look like? How do you think he gets there? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

Few players would know more about the Twins’ lack of playoff success heading into this year than Jorge Polanco. Sure, he wasn’t on the roster for more than half of that epic 18-game losing streak, but it has surely been in the back of his mind since making his postseason debut in 2017. Now, the longest-tenured Twin has a chance to redeem himself against some of the biggest adversaries of his career. Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports You could make the case for many different Twins being the face of their ALDS matchup against the dreaded Houston Astros. The obvious choice is Carlos Correa as he takes on his former club. Pablo Lopez might have an early edge after his brilliant start in Game 2 on Sunday night. Even Royce Lewis could garner some steam after his heroics in the Wild Card round and after his mammoth shot in Game 1 on Saturday afternoon. But this matchup could mean the most to the team’s longest-tenured Twin, Jorge Polanco. Often getting a supporting character billing for much of his career, the Twins’ infielder has seen and heard it all when it comes to his team’s reputation in the postseason. And after three wins in the first two rounds so far, he finally gets to see that reputation start to shift. As this matchup with the Astros heads home to Target Field for the next two games, the stakes have never been higher for the Twins, and especially for Polanco. With top-prospects emerging in the club’s depth chart, the future is uncertain for the veteran switch-hitter. This is his prime opportunity to get even more redemption for his teammates of years’ past who couldn’t pull through with a win in the playoffs. But more importantly, it’s Polanco’s best shot at redemption for himself and all of the hard work he’s put into his 14 years with the Twins’ organization. The opponent in this matchup plays a significant role in Polanco’s quest for vindication. The Astros have been the most dominant-team in the American League for the better part of a decade, and they ousted the Twins in their last postseason appearance in 2020. In those two games at Target Field, Polanco tallied just one hit in eight plate appearances, and committed a tragic late-game fielding error that led to the Houston lineup taking a lead. At that point, Polanco had heard all about the unbelievable playoff losing streak. Now he found himself fully submerged in its tide. To put that behind him this time around, Polanco will have to carry the mindset that he held when playing against Houston in the regular season throughout his career. In 31 games against the Astros, Polo carries a .322/.382/.593 (.975 OPS) slash line with 16 extra-base hits. That’s elite production that may just be starting to rear its head into the playoffs for Polanco. We saw his mammoth three-run homer in Game 1 off of Hector Neris this year. Though that ultimately led to a Twins’ loss, it kept the team in the game and hopefully kicked the veteran Twins’ infielder into high-gear for the rest of the series. The Twins need him to fulfill his duties in the coming games against Houston, not just as a savvy hitter, but as a versatile fielder that can hold his own in a relatively-unfamiliar position. With Lewis relegated to designated hitter while he recovers from a hamstring strain, and rookie Edouard Julien requiring ample playing time against right-handed pitchers, Polanco has needed to acclimate himself to the hot corner in expedited fashion. So far in the postseason, that’s involved some sloppy errors and a few tougher-outs left unmade in the field. But while his defensive capabilities may have fallen short a few times, that doesn’t mean that they’re bound to for the rest of the series, or even the postseason. This is Polanco’s chance to step up and take control of the game now that he doesn’t have to worry about the monkey on his back anymore. His team needs him to help lead the way now more than ever. And if he can step up to the moment, Polanco can not only change the narrative going forward, but he can close the book on what it has meant to be a Minnesota Twin in the postseason for the last 20 years. He can do it for all of the great players he took the field with in the 2010s who couldn’t end the dreaded streak. He can do it for his three managers that helped to elevate his game to the where he finds himself today. He can do it for his longtime friend and current teammate, Max Kepler, who has shared a field and occasional bedroom with Polanco for their entire adult lives. But most of all, he can do it for himself as the longest-tenured and arguably most-underrated Twin of the last decade. He can do it against one of his biggest nemeses, and he can do it at home in front of the thousands of fans that watched him grow from a 20-year-old emergency call-up in 2014 to a beloved veteran on the team that finally beat the dreaded streak. What do you think? Can Jorge Polanco redeem himself this time around? Will this series against the Astros mean more to him? Let us know what you think in the comment section down below, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

Brooks LeeWalker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezMarco RayaCharlee SotoDavid FestaAustin MartinBrandon WinokurKala'i RosarioTanner SchobelConnor PrielippLuke KeaschallYunior SeverinoYasser MercedesSimeon Woods RichardsonDaShawn Keirsey JrJordan BalazovicJose RodriguezDanny De AndradeBrent Headrick

Brooks LeeWalker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezMarco RayaCharlee SotoDavid FestaAustin MartinBrandon WinokurKala'i RosarioTanner SchobelConnor PrielippLuke KeaschallYunior SeverinoYasser MercedesSimeon Woods RichardsonDaShawn Keirsey JrJordan BalazovicJose RodriguezDanny De AndradeBrent Headrick

The article compares him to other relievers around the league in 2023. If I wanted to compare him to the all-time greats I would have said he's "as good as anyone ever." But I hear your point. Thanks for reading. If you run into the English language, please tell them I'm sorry.

Rivera is the best closer of all time. Is that really the standard we want to use for comparing Duran?

Sure, Jhoan Duran has had a couple hiccups throughout the season. You could say that about virtually any pitcher in baseball. But you would be hard-pressed to find many bullpen arms as lethal and dominant as the Twins’ closer. So how good has he been and how does he compare to his competition in the American League? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA TODAY Sports For some reason, there is a small, yet vocal tangent of casual Twins fans that think the team shouldn’t be confident in their second-year closer, Jhoan Duran. Despite a strong 2.49 ERA and excellent peripherals to back up his stellar performance, some think he’s too shaky to have success in the postseason. Their criticism could speak more to their general apprehension to the Twins team in general after 18 straight losses in the playoffs, some coming at the hands of a lackluster relief corps. But that shouldn’t be Duran’s problem as his team nears their first playoff game, especially after the encouraging campaign he’s had this season. Not only has the Twins’ closer displayed some of the most dominant raw stuff of anyone in the league, but there’s reason to believe he’s one of the better arms that will be playing in October. Yes, Duran’s fastball is his calling card. It’s hard to not be known as the guy that touched 104 MPH earlier this season. His heater has averaged 101.4 MPH since breaking into the league at the beginning of last season, which is by far the highest among all relievers in that span according to Inside Edge. The next highest is Jordan Hicks of the Toronto Blue Jays, whose 99.8 MPH average velocity is nearly two whole ticks lower than that of Duran. The Twins’ closer throws fireballs, and for the most part, is quite successful when doing so. Opponents have a whopping 35% miss rate on that offering, which is third-best among all pitchers in baseball this season. While that pitch is impressive, it’s certainly not perfect. Half of the home runs that Duran has given up have come off of his fastball, and he’s allowed a .380 slugging percentage off of it (which is still quite good, but the highest of each of his offerings). One of the only blemishes on his Baseball Savant page is his 40th percentile average exit velocity allowed, and much of that stems from the higher-velocity pitches going a long way when they do get hit. The other bruise to Duran’s stat line is his 9.6% walk rate, which is a valid concern, but it’s not the insurmountable anchor that the vocal minority seem to think it is. So maybe that’s where the trepidation surrounding the hulking reliever comes from. Maybe Duran’s harshest critics can’t get past the idea that their relief ace could allow runners to reach base in a pivotal moment for his team in the postseason. This fear was festered by the performance of Twins’ relievers of yesteryear, who couldn’t live up to the moment when the stadium lights were shining brightest. But, again, that has nothing to do with Duran. In fact, he’s performed stronger than almost anybody that the Twins could face in the first few rounds of the postseason. Just take a look at the class of relievers that are or could feasibly make the postseason in the American League (this includes surefire playoff teams such as the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, as well as those still fighting for the last few spots on the bracket such as the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners). Of all the relief pitchers on those teams that could possibly be in the playoffs, Duran has the eighth-best ERA, and only two of the names listed above his have a better strikeout rate (Bryan Abreu and Felix Bautista, who is currently on the injured list and may not even make the playoff roster). Of the seven pitchers with a better ERA than Duran, four have a higher walk rate. This shows us that few have gotten better results in terms of allowing earned runs to score, and those that have can’t seem to match his strikeout capability. If they can, they tend to struggle even more with Duran’s main blemish, which is walking batters. So if some think that we should be concerned with Duran as the Twins head to the playoffs, the same could be said for nearly every other pitcher on contending teams. At that point, the issue becomes the fickle nature of a close ballgame in the late innings, and not the fire-breathing monster who has led the Twins’ relief corps for the last two years. Could Duran give up a lead in a postseason game? Of course. Any pitcher can. But until that happens, fans should sit back and enjoy the ride - especially if it comes with the best entrance music and light show of anyone in the game. What do you think? Are you confident in Duran as he heads into postseason play? Is there anyone in the league that you would rather have closing out a playoff game? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section down below. And as always, keep it sweet. View full article

Make no mistake, local kid Louie Varland still has a future in the Twins’ starting rotation. But for the remaining three weeks and almost certainly into the playoffs, he is going to be counted on in some critical opportunities out of the bullpen. What has his small sample of work showed us so far and what’s the best-case scenario for Minnesota’s native son going forward? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett Something’s different about Louie Varland since he returned to the big leagues last week. He has the same Minnesota charm that made him a fan-favorite upon his debut near the end of last season. He’s still showing a knack for giving up the long ball. And he’s still showcasing a starter’s pitch repertoire. But suddenly, the 25-year-old rookie is displaying the confidence and enthusiasm of a seasoned veteran now that he’s coming in out of the bullpen. It’s not to say he lacked that fire as a starter, but the energy has evolved with his new role. And now he’s riding that momentum into a significant role on a likely postseason-bound roster. Though we’re still looking at a small sample of work when lauding his performance as a reliever, Varland has been electric, and it’s that type of electricity that can make all the difference for a team when they enter the postseason. Aside from the confidence and energy that Varland has displayed in his handful of games out of the ‘pen, his raw stuff is also playing up. His fastball has always been his bread and butter. It was his only pitch when he started playing college ball for Concordia University in St. Paul. And now that he doesn’t have to worry about conserving his energy for a starter’s in-game workload, the former Golden Bear can truly let it fly, knowing his outing will be short. So far, his velocity on his four-seam fastball has seen a significant jump in relief, just as planned. He averaged a respectable 94.9 MPH on his heater as a starting pitcher, but that figure has jumped to 97.2 MPH since rejoining the club in this new role. He also topped out at 100.2 MPH in one of his last tune-ups with Triple-A St. Paul. That’s exactly what the team’s top brass wanted when they started mapping out Varland’s usage a few weeks ago. But as compelling as that added fastball velocity is to Twins’ fans, it isn’t enough to get by against playoff-caliber teams. It’s undoubtedly an excellent place to start, but at least one more plus-offering is crucial to sustained success at the game’s highest level. We’ve seen opponents going up and hacking early in the count, knowing that Varland will highlight that heater and pound the strike zone early on. So when the opponents recognized this, they would sit on his good-not-great 94.9 MPH fastball, which led to more hard-hit balls and more home runs (2.31 HR/9). Hitters have swung at 57% of his pitches since making his relief debut last week, which is the seventh-highest in MLB in that span, according to Inside Edge. That makes his secondary offerings all the more critical. The good news is that his cutter has emerged as that complimentary weapon. That pitch has also seen a velocity increase out of the bullpen, averaging 91.7 MPH with more spin than he saw when used as a starting pitcher. That’s led to more swing-and-misses and limited damage when it gets hit (.182 slugging percentage allowed, .174 expected slugging). While the fastball has been Varland’s marquee offering early in at-bats, the cutter has become his dagger. This can be seen in its increased usage as Varland’s “put away” pitch, otherwise known as his selection, when the count gets to two strikes. When done well, this combination can be a genuinely dominant pairing for a reliever. It’s the one-two punch that shines in postseason play when punchouts and weakly hit balls are at a premium. But the pitcher must have the confidence, poise, and electricity Varland has shown as a reliever so far to execute it in any given at-bat. Beyond that, it takes a multi-inning capability to transform a relief arm into a unique and highly desirable asset. Adding a healthy and thriving Varland couldn’t be a better time for an inconsistent bullpen. Griffin Jax has provided a mostly great season but has been leaking oil since August. His usage will have to come down, and someone will need to fill in when he’s unavailable. If Varland can pass some of those high-leverage tests between now and the start of the postseason, it could feed the positive momentum he’s currently riding into October. What do you think? Where would you put Varland in the current bullpen hierarchy? Do you trust the early results? Let us know what you think in the comment section below. View full article

Spot on. I was more referring to the first month and a half of last season when Rogers converted something like 13 straight saves with an ERA under 2.50, and Pagan was starting to struggle. You're very right, though. The bullpen's issues extended far beyond the Pagan-Rogers swap.

It’s been a minute since Chris Paddack’s name was anywhere near a Twins’ lineup card. The tall righty went under the knife in early-2022, and has largely been out of sight and out of mind for many. But now that he’s knee-deep in an official rehab assignment, it might be time for fans to get ready for a new sheriff in town for the playoffs. The infamous Taylor Rogers-for-Emilio Pagan trade left many bewildered at the time, and especially so when the former thrived with his new team and the latter scuffled mightily. But the third player in that swap (not counting the throw-ins of Brent Rooker and Brayan Medina) was what drove the deal past the finish line for the Twins. Chris Paddack represented a solid upgrade to the back-end of the Twins rotation, but his injury history kept his trade value at a reasonable level (hence the modest return of an impending free agent reliever and a player that was on the outside-looking-in when it came to the outfield depth chart). It turns out that was for good reason, as the then-26-year-old required a second Tommy John surgery after just five starts. Since then, Paddack and the Twins used his final year of team control to rehab from his injury and to nail down a buy-low contract extension. With his free agency pushed back to 2025, he is able to map out a path to becoming the hopeful rotation cornerstone that the club envisioned upon acquiring him. But in the meantime, could he be a useful weapon out of the bullpen come late-September, and hopefully into the postseason? While it’s by no means a sure thing at this point, this plan definitely feels like a concept that the Twins desperately want to work. Whether that’s with Paddack or other traditional starters such as Louie Varland or potentially Kenta Maeda, the club seems to like the idea of having a starter let it fly in a relief role for the playoffs. With that being the ultimate goal for Paddack as he started his rehab assignment, his debut performance with class Low-A Fort Myers surely gave the club a glimmer of much-needed optimism. In that brief outing on September 6th, he threw two ⅔ innings, giving up two earned runs on two hits and a pair of walks. That on its own certainly isn’t a game-changing performance, but it’s encouraging that he got four strikeouts, and five swinging-misses in 52 total pitches. For a first taste at real action since May of last year, the Twins will gladly take those results, especially given the promise of some of his numbers under the hood. In that outing, his fastball averaged 94.6 MPH (topping out at 96.3 MPH) and he got six swings on his changeup, which is widely regarded as his best offering. The fastball velocity is particularly eyebrow-raising given the fact that he topped out around 93.5 MPH pre-surgery last season. Was it a hot gun, or was Paddack reaching back for a little extra oomph knowing he doesn’t need to shoot for a starter’s workload? The Twins are hoping it’s the latter, and that he can provide that excellent fastball-changeup combo that looked very effective in his brief 2022 campaign. In those five starts, Paddack racked up adequate strikeout totals (21.5%) while limiting walks to just 0.8 BB/9. That led to a very strong 10.0 K/BB ratio, which was the best of his career. He also didn’t allow a single home run in those 22 innings pitched. While that’s unsustainable, the Twins are hoping the relief-version of their hurler can be similarly homer-resistant. https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/LhGuBE4I It should be noted, as Twins Daily’s Matthew Lenz said in his recent video, it’s likely that Paddack would be tasked with lower-leverage innings. But that has proven to be a vital cog in the operation given the lack of quality depth to the club’s bullpen so far this year. He could even go a couple innings at a time, theoretically, which might be an on-paper improvement over someone like Josh Winder, Brent Headrick and Cole Sands who have been trying to fill that role so far with inconsistent results. At the end of the day, it’ll take a few more positive developments in Paddack’s rehab assignment before he could lock in as a post-season reinforcement. It’s easy to envision the upside if all goes well. Paddack coming into a game to let loose for a shorter outing could be a welcome addition to the postseason bullpen. If effective, he could be someone that locks in for the middle innings of a game if a starter departs early. Let’s hope he still has his old hat with the curved brim and his pair of six-shooters. The Twins could use their old sheriff back, even if he’s in a new role. What do you think? Can Chris Paddack be a useful relief weapon for a potential playoff run? Do you think he still has what it takes to be sheriff? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section down below. View full article

It's been a whirlwind 14 months for the Twins' top prospect, who currently finds himself soaking in everything St. Paul has to offer. But with the help of the various coaches and the countless teammates that have pushed him along the way, the 2022 first-round pick finds himself on the doorstep of achieving his dream of being a big leaguer. It's time to get to know the real Brooks Lee. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints The Minnesota Twins' roster is built on a foundation of players drafted early in the first round who graduated from their prospect rank to MLB stardom. Carlos Correa arrived with his middle-of-the-order bat. Byron Buxton flashed elite defense at every level. Royce Lewis got there with his grit and bounce-back mentality. But none of the three had as meteoric of a rise as Brooks Lee (Twins Daily's top-rated prospect in the organization). From raking as a star for three years at Cal Poly University, where he had a completely dominant 1.073 OPS in 115 collegiate games, to standing on the doorstep of his MLB career, Lee has had an eventful 14 months in professional ball. But he insists this is only just the beginning. "First and foremost, I want to continue to be a good teammate to everybody," Lee said as we watched his teammates wrap up batting practice on Wednesday afternoon. "It's been awesome to be here with everyone [in St. Paul]. We have a really great group of players so I just want to do my best for them." His first month at the Triple-A level has brought on some new revelations for the product of San Luis Obispo, California. While he's excited to be one step closer to his dream of playing in the big leagues, he's hitting some speed bumps for the first time in his young professional career. In a very small sample size of just 20 games, Lee is slashing .256/.319/.378 (.697 OPS) with a 73 wRC+, meaning his production has been about 27 percent below the league average. "The pitching here has been much harder to handle compared to where I was at before. That's no secret," Lee said. "I have to do a better job of getting on base. I think I'll get where I want to be eventually. It's just going to take some time." Lee has split time between four different minor-league levels since being drafted by the Twins with the eighth overall pick last July. That constant churning between different coaching staffs, teammates, and competition can be daunting to many, but the 22-year-old infielder is taking it all in stride. For Lee, it's all about growth. "I had a great off-season last year and came in with a lot more muscle. I want to set myself up to have another healthy offseason this time around," he said. "Every coaching staff and my teammates have taught me a lot about what it means to keep yourself healthy." Speaking of his teammates, the former Mustang has had no shortage of intriguing names penciled alongside his on his team's lineup cards. From other top prospects to journeyman minor-league lifers, Lee has been able to absorb as much information as possible from his peers at every stage. One of those teammates many are excited to see paired with Lee is the Twins rookie sensation Royce Lewis. The former first-overall pick got to play alongside his prospect peer while rehabbing with Triple-A St. Paul in early August. While the stint was brief, it gave Twins Territory a taste of what will come. "It was really cool because he's just such a great player, and he backs it up by being so knowledgeable," Lee said. "It's cool to see how he goes about his business before, during and after a game." The idea that he and Lewis could be a tandem in the Twins' infield for years to come made Lee smirk. He acknowledged that the two will do their best to build off each other's success as they continue to develop. Fans saw a preview of this potential on August 11th, when both players belted emphatic home runs, leading the Saints to a victory. "He's definitely got a competitive side to him, that's for sure," Lee said with a chuckle. "And then he's more animated than a lot of guys so it's really fun. The game needs more players like that. Plus, he's a California guy, so there's a little more substance to him." Lewis isn't the only big leaguer that Lee has been able to share a dugout with. Byron Buxton (hamstring) and Alex Kirilloff (shoulder) started their respective rehab assignments with the Saints on Wednesday night. "I'm sure a lot of guys are going to be following [Buxton] around and trying to pick his brain," Lee said. "It's going to be really special to look out and see him in the outfield behind me." When he's not looking at the outfielders behind him, Lee has been taking in the experience of being in the Twin Cities for the first time. True city life has been a fun development for a kid who grew up in the California countryside in San Luis Obispo. "It's been really fun to be in a city like St. Paul where we can reach so much just by walking," Lee said. "I've had a truly terrible time navigating all of the one-way streets you have here, but otherwise I've been loving it." One added benefit of having a Triple-A affiliate so close is sharing resources with the MLB club or having a quick drive over to Target Field upon getting called up. "Just ask Fundy," Lee exclaimed while referencing Kody Funderburk's unexpected call-up earlier this week. "He found out at like 3 PM that day and made it over to Minneapolis in no time for their game that night. That's crazy." What's crazy is that the Twins were able to use their eighth overall pick to select a player that drew top-three talent buzz in his class and to have him standing at Target Field's doorstep just 14 months later. It may not happen this season, but Lee will eventually find himself making that drive across town for his major league debut soon. Much to his chagrin, here's hoping that it's a one-way street that leads him there. What do you think about Brooks Lee's first full season of professional ball? When do you think he'll debut, and what position do you want to see him play? Let us know your first impressions in the comment section below. View full article

While he failed to break camp with the big league club out of Spring Training, Bailey Ober eventually made his way to being the Twins’ most consistent starter for much of the season. But now that he has blown past his career-high for innings pitched, and the club has a handful of rotation options, what will the tall righty’s role be down the stretch and into a possible postseason run? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports There's no doubt about it. The Twins wouldn't be where they are today without the steadying presence of Bailey Ober in their rotation for the bulk of the season. He's surprised many with his ability to control his fastball up in the zone while limiting walks as good as anyone. He's been the unsung hero of the team's biggest asset - their starting rotation. Okay, he has received plenty of praise this year, so maybe he's not so unsung anymore, but the fact remains that Ober has been a critical contributor to the team's modest success. But some interesting variables have come into play as the 2023 season rounds third and embarks on its home stretch. Ober has started to show cracks in his last seven starts, which is unsurprising for a young hurler. But the Twins now have a handful of options for their starting rotation, and they are entering the same stage of the season where things went off the rails a year ago. Indeed, the club will want to monitor his workload now that he's established a new high mark for innings pitched. That could mean skipping a start here and there or getting an extra day of rest when available. A likely scenario is to give him a quicker hook within each game when possible. Old-timers and zealots who cling to the outdated concept of pitch count being the critical motivating factor for these decisions will hate that idea. Still, it makes sense if the team hopes to keep Ober healthy while making sure he remains in the starting rotation. We saw that play out in real-time in Tuesday's 7-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Ober avoided a big blow through five innings, giving up two earned runs while throwing just 78 pitches. But out of the 13 balls put into play against him in those five innings, more than half had an exit velocity of 93.5 MPH or more. Yes, it was great that Ober could wiggle out of significant damage. But it's hard to look at the batted-ball results - combined with allowing three walks - and conclude that he was dominating. And that's been his story for the last seven starts. Since the All-Star break, Ober has pitched 36 innings to a 5.25 ERA, with a 1.47 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk numbers have stayed consistent, but he's giving up a lethal amount of home runs (2.25 HR/9), and opposing hitters are boasting a .311 batting average against him. That's cause for concern, especially because Ober has thrown more innings this year than in any season of his career, with six weeks remaining on the schedule. So what's next? Since it's impossible to fathom the Twins shutting Ober down entirely at any point, there are only so many options. Does he continue to start with added rest days? Should he get an earlier hook on a game-to-game basis, regardless of how well he's pitching? Will the club change his role based on the available rotation options? While he's been shakier than usual in the last month, Ober is still one of the five best options for the Twins' starting rotation as they head into a crucial stretch to a hopeful playoff run. He tends to steady himself as the game goes along, just as he did on Tuesday night. When going through the order for a third time, Ober has limited his opponents to just a .271 slugging percentage, which is sixth-best among starting pitchers, according to Inside Edge. In those scenarios, he has only walked two batters all year, as well. So, as the game goes on, Ober limits damage and baserunners, giving many the impression that he's rolling. That accounts for much of the fan outrage any time he gets lifted with fewer than 90 pitches, and it also makes things tricky when determining if he would be the proper candidate to move to a piggyback and bullpen role at some point, as was suggested in Dan Hayes' recent piece for The Athletic. On the one hand, there's merit in limiting his exposure, and innings total at this point in the season, but on the other hand, it's logical to keep him in a position where he's had the most success despite his recent struggles. So what will happen when Joe Ryan returns to the rotation if all five current starters remain healthy and relatively effective? That point is approaching rapidly. It'll be worth watching how the Twins navigate Ober and the rest of their starting staff, especially if they make it into the postseason. What do you think will happen with the Twins' rotation mix? What do you want to happen? In the comment section below, let us know your thoughts about Ober's season and role. View full article