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Drtwins

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Everything posted by Drtwins

  1. Drtwins
    I agree, last week I had Lee at 2B after 3 solid games but his 0.685 OPS isn’t keeping up with Julien or Gasper at this point even with the much better defense. There’s still another week so I could flip right back next week. This will be a battle til the end.
  2. Drtwins
    This projection seems accurate at this point. With Zebby injured (he had been pitching great) and Festa struggling (Paddack is as well albeit in only a single start), the starting five appear to be set. The bullpen is likely down to nine due to Topa's injury. Castellano will likely be the odd man out for now; his potential is there (7k in 4-2/3in), but he has had some struggles this spring (1.71 whip, 5BB). It's hard to imagine the Twins keeping him on the 26-man roster for the entire season. However, with about three weeks left in spring training, one more injury to a reliever could make him the eighth man. I do agree some of the veterans, Paddack and Tonkin, have struggled as much as the young guys but with the small sample size so far in spring they likely get the benefit of the doubt as they have shown to be adequate pitchers at the MLB level. On the position player side, Lee is coming on strong and is likely the best defensive player on the bubble, making him nearly a lock. IMO Julien and Gasper are competing for the final bench spot. Although I would love to see Keirsey sneak on as the 13th man, allowing Wallner and Larnach to DH, Bader to play left, and still have Keirsey available as an outfield replacement off the bench. One of Castro or Lee could start at second base, with the other serving as a super utility player in the infield.
  3. Drtwins
    And Topa just left today's game with an injury
  4. Drtwins
    I wish the author had used statistics to support their opinion rather than relying on projections. Zebby would be immediately excluded from the conversation. His ERA, FIP, and WAR (the only one with a negative WAR) were significantly worse than the others. While one could argue that it's a small sample size, this also indicates that he has no proven track record of success in MLB, making his inclusion in the opening day roster unjustifiable. Festa led the group in FIP/xFIP and had a significantly higher strikeout percentage than the others. If Festa has a good spring he would be my choice for #4. In my opinion, the discussion should really come down to SWR versus Paddock for the 5th spot. These two had very similar advanced metrics in 2024 (FIP, xFIP, K%). I would lean towards Paddock for the final spot in the rotation. He has a longer track record, is further removed from surgery, SWR can be optioned, and as others have pointed out, the Twins will need starting pitcher depth and shouldn't discard one. This assumes everyone makes it through Spring Training healthy. Being MN sports fans we all know this is unlikely, so I wouldn't be surprised if Festa, Paddock, and SWR are all on the opening day roster, or one of these three ends up on the IL and the other two get the final rotation spots.
  5. Drtwins
    I also think the best defensive setup would be Lee at 3rd, Correa at SS, Castro at 2nd, and Lewis at 1st. However, with France, Miranda, and Julien being limited defensively, the infield would need to be completely shifted whenever someone needs a rest or when an injury occurs.
  6. Drtwins
    The lie that is most disheartening imo is #2, the Twins must cut payroll. I only think it's a partial lie though as they knew the TV deal would be worse than 2023. The issue is they were going to end up with some type of TV deal, so to say they had to cut enough to make up for no TV never made sense. I do understand the argument that the Twins have a lot of good young talent so the extra money might not be needed. I believe the Twins were hopeful that numbers 1 and 3 are/would be true. Of course they don't want blackouts and the GM isn't going to intentionally make trades to make the team worse. Even if you believe the Polanco trade might make the team worse this year it will hopefully make the team improved in future years. I love the optimism here, but to think every Twins player is going to be better than last year is ridiculous. You are basically saying Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are all going to have career years? And the guy with glass legs is going to get back to his 2017 form. There will likely be just as many players that pull a Miranda or Gordon as there will that have career years like Ober, Lopez, and Jeffers did last year.
  7. Drtwins
    Love the "Allow Kids Into The Ballpark For Free" idea. On a side note, glad to see my Midco bill already increased the first month after seeing the Twins agreement with Bally's. smh
  8. Drtwins
    The problem with this logic is if Ober is taking Gray's spot as the clear #2, or even 1b. Who then takes Ober's spot? Let me guess, Ryan? If Ryan takes over as the #3 for Ober, who then takes the #4 for Ryan? Paddock? (I do like Paddock and think he has great stuff so this could happen if he stays healthy.) Then DeSclafani takes Maeda's spot as the #5. I wouldn't disagree that this could potentially happen but using this scenario you're expecting 4 of the Twins starting staff to have better seasons than last year. That's just not going to happen. In 2023, the Twins had an above avg #2, whether you consider Lopez or Gray the #2, Ober put up great numbers for a #3, Ryan put up solid numbers for a #4. Basically moving them each 1 spot up in the rotation makes them no longer great compared to other #2 or #3 starters across the league.
  9. Drtwins
    Gordon will be on the opening day roster unless he's injured, Carlos Santana's signing has no impact on him. Santana is a 1st baseman and DH. Gordon will be the 13th man and fill a super utility role. I agree that he'll likely be gone at some point in the season, but they aren't going through arbitration with him currently if the plan was to just let him go.
  10. Drtwins
    Relivers are incredibly volatile. Several options make me nervous due to age (Jackson, Thielbar), injury history (Straumont, Stewart), and relatively short periods of success (Funderburk, Stewart, Topa). With that being said I think the Twins have done a great job bringing in depth. The bullpen has significant potential and could be really good if the majority of them can stay healthy and put up similar numbers to last year.
  11. Drtwins
    I don't disagree with the belief that the current lineup is superior to what they began with in 2023, but would argue it is worse than what the Twins finished with in 2023. Anyone can say Buxton can be better, Correa can be better, the youngsters will continue to trend up but if you just look player by player. The Twins have effectively swapped Solano and Polanco for Gordon and Santana. IMO Polanco>Santana and Solano>Gordon. Therefore, it's a downgrade from how the team finished 2023. Now, I will admit Santana and Gordon in the field should be better so there is some positives there. The bullpen has some slight upgrades and a lot more options which will help. The starting staff is definitely a downgrade compared to 2023 at this point. I do believe some combination of Paddock, Varland, Desclafani will be as good or better than Maeda, but they will not reach Gray numbers (Gray himself likely won't). Having 3 back of the rotation arms definitely will help with injuries. This team is built to win in the regular season, just not the playoffs. Fingers crossed they can make a move for a 2nd high impact starter at some point throughout the year to push for a World Series appearance.
  12. Drtwins
    The Twins aren't going to have Martin on the ML roster to sit on the bench. The 13th player just doesn't get enough opportunities, hence the perfect spot for Gordon. Martin still needs playing time and at-bats. Castro will be the main OF backup with Gordon sprinkled in. If (when) Buxton goes down and is no longer able to play in the field is when Martin should be added to the ML roster if he is succeeding in AAA.
  13. Drtwins
    The trade added depth, likely raised the team’s floor, and added a solid prospect. It’s honestly about what I would have expected in return for Polanco alone. Do I love it, no. Do I like it, not really. Do I hate it, nah. Topa is the same as any mediocre reliver, he could be solid or completely fall apart. As a weak contact reliant reliver who has unimpressive K rates he’s not a high leverage reliever. He’s just a guy. Desclafani could be a solid 5th SP if all goes well but is he better than Varland. At best Desclafani should be the #6 guy and an injury replacement. Again, this is another move that raises provides depth and raises the floor. The problem with the trade is this doesn’t raise the ceiling at all. It makes the Twins worse if they are to make the playoffs. Once in the playoffs it’s the stars and clutch players that are needed. Topa and Desclafani won’t likely play in a close or important playoff game. Would Polanco, 100%. He is easily a top 9 player whether he’s at 2nd or DH (with Julien at 2nd, DH, or even 1st). All in all it’s not a terrible trade, it will likely help the team get to the playoffs, but won't help them in the playoffs. Here’s to hoping the saved money leads to a Hoskins signing or a trade of prospects for a #1 or #2 SP.
  14. Drtwins
    If Hoskins is added for 15 million a year he would not be brought in as a platoon player. The only way this makes sense is if the Twins move Polanco to help clear up DH at-bats for Hoskins and he can play 1st when others need a rest day at DH.
  15. Drtwins
    I’m excited to see what Martin can do this year, but don’t expect to see him on the 26-man until May or June. The 26-man is pretty set imo. Wallner, Buxton, Kepler across the outfield with Castro the backup at all 3 positions (Wallner likely switches to RF when Kep rests). Lewis, Correa, Julien/Polanco, Kirilloff will cover the infield and DH spot in some manner with Farmer the main backup. Finally, there is Jeffers and Vazquez behind the plate. That leaves 1 spot. Gordon, Miranda, Larnach, and Martin are all possibilities. Out of these options Gordon is the only one without an option and do the Twins really want to have Miranda, Larnach, and Martin in the majors to sit on the bench. Injuries can change everything though. If Buxton can’t play center, Martin will hopefully be the call. If Wallner or Kepler go down, Larnach can come up. Hopefully Miranda will have a good spring and be ready in case Kirilloff isn’t. Ultimately, how things stand Gordon will likely take the final spot but the Twins appear to have capable replacements for all positions in the minors should someone get injured (cough Buxton, Kirilloff) or gets DFA’d (Gordon) a month or two into the season.
  16. Drtwins
    Should have waited until Spring Training and brought him in on a minor league deal. Now when he's injured or deserves to be let go by June the Twins will hang on to him for an extra couple of months.
  17. Drtwins
    #1 seems like a lot, #2 seems about right, but it would definitely hurt to lose two starters, and #3 doesn't seem to be enough. If MIA is truly looking for a SS or C, they may value Lee more than projections indicate. If you could do #1 and swap out Wallner for Larnach and/or Vazquez, and have SWR or Culpepper be the prospect to add pitching back to the MIA system maybe the Marlins would consider it.
  18. Drtwins
    Hard pass. I'd rather trade Polanco or Farmer for a relief pitcher or prospects then use their salary to sign Harrison Bader.
  19. Drtwins
    I feel everyone is on the same page here. The current 26 man projection looks solid with Miranda and Martin waiting in the wings if Kirilloff and Buxton aren't available. Could potentially bring in a cheap veteran CF option closer to Spring Training to compete for Gordon's spot if there is a fear Buxton won't be available in the field as Martin wouldn't likely begin the year in the majors. As already commented, I'm sure a few veteran relief pitchers will be brought in on minor league deals to try and beat out Winder, Sands, and Balazovic for the last couple bullpen spots. The only major hole would be trying to fill a top of the rotation starter spot to push Varland to the #6 starter for depth. Even with the reduced payroll there is still optimism.
  20. Drtwins
    100% agree with the article. Trading away Farmer, Vazquez, Polanco, or Kepler would bring nothing of equivalent value to this year’s team. As the Twins still appear to have excess infield talent, Julien would be the player to move imo. He is young, had success in the majors, and has multiple years of team control. Polanco could continue to play second with Farmer the utility infielder. If Polanco goes down Lee is waiting in St. Paul, or Farmer takes over if Lee doesn’t appear ready. Not sure the Mariners would go for something like this, but if the Twins could trade Julien and a couple minor league pieces to the Mariners for Gilbert or Kirby that would be ideal.
  21. Drtwins
    I’m not opposed to trading Kepler or Polanco, but the question becomes what fans are expecting in return. Rebuilding teams aren’t looking for 30 y.o. position players, so there goes 1/3 of the possible trade partners. Next, competing teams which are more likely to trade for a Kepler or Polanco type player aren’t going to trade away major league level starters, especially top of the rotation pitchers. The only reason that would make sense to move Kepler or Polanco would be if the Twins are willing to use that money to sign a Snell or Montgomery caliber starter. If this is the case, I’d prefer to move Polanco as the Twins seem to have more established infield commodities.
  22. Drtwins
    diehard has it correct. The only thing I would add is Hermann to the bench as Doumit and Mauer will be starting most games. Dozier - 2B Pressley/Mastro - CF Mauer - C Willingham - LF Doumit - DH Arcia - RF Plouffe - 3b Parmelee - 1B Florimon - SS Bench - Escobar, Hermann, Colabello, Pressley/Mastro Hermann will make the 25 man as Doumit and Mauer will be starting together in most games. Escobar can backup 2B, SS, and 3B, Colabello 1B and OF. If Pinto does well at AAA to start next year he will be up in June/July if Doumit gets traded. If Hicks does well he will also be in the Majors again in June/July if Willingham gets traded. If Willingham doesn't get traded, Hicks could still be up to take over CF depending on how Pressley/Mastro are playing. Sano will come up in July, unless Plouffe is playing out of his mind. Plouffe can fill the void at DH from Doumit's departure or take over at 1B if Parmelee isn't producing. Rosario is another player I could see making his debut just a matter of where; OF, 2B, SS?
  23. Drtwins
    I like Justin as much as anyone. However, he most likely will be gone at the end of the season, so why not trade him for an average prospect. If the twins can resign him to a 2 year extension for 7 million or less we could keep him. If Colabello and Parms could each play full time for the remainder of the year we could see where they are at, either long term replacements or bench players. If neither works out you could always try to resign Justin at the end of the year. IMO I don't think either will work out, but I still would let Justin go and consider moving Plouffe or Sano to first as they both can't play 3rd. Plouffe has played every infield position and his biggest issue has seemed to be his wild throws, he would have plenty of range as a 1B in addition to power. Thus giving us an infield next year or the following of 1B-Plouffe, 2B-Dozier/Rosario, SS-Florimon/Dozier, 3B-Sano. Bench would be Florimon or Dozier. Mauer could Catch,DH, and play 1B as he does now. Plouffe could move over to 3rd on days Sano needs off or the utility man could.
  24. Drtwins
    I believe Darin Mastroianni going on the 60 day DL opened up Walters spot on the the 40 man roster, so no one will have to be DFAd. Just need to drop someone from the 25, Thielbar, Fien, and Arcia IMO would be most likely. Colabello hopefully will stay until Plouffe comes back maybe longer if he can outperform Parmelee.
  25. Drtwins
    Why is this thread Dozier vs. Escobar, it should be Florimon vs. Escobar. Dozier has done better then expected in the field and is hitting the ball solid with his .813 OPS. I agree Escobar has been excellent this spring as well. Florimon is the one who can't hit the ball, is expected not to bat above .250, and yet is given the job.
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