Hawkeye Bean Counter

One could argue on a 1 year deal he would be closer to $20 million as well.

3 years $45 million for Candelario, proves Kepler is pretty close to Qualifying offer, especially if he has a decent year with the bat.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/8/14/23830490/mlb-minnesota-twins-max-kepler-is-locked-in-sweet-spot-crushing-fastballs When you are hitting balls with more velocity and better launch angles than slow rollers to second base, yes you will go from a player that had the worst babip for 3 years running to a much higher babip. He was a 4 WAR during that period, an 8-9 WAR extrapolated for the season. No I don't expect that high of a babip. But to run higher than previous is a decent expectation where he was a 2 WAR with .230 BA. He is an excellent player in the .250 to .260 BA.

First off I am expecting Kepler to be at minimum a 3.5 to 4 WAR player this year with his offensive changes. This is all perceived Value. I think teams value Kepler more than we do. Is he borderline, Yes he is borderline, but I think when all is said and done he will be and it won't be borderline. It may be right it may be wrong. All I am saying is I think the Twins value him more than fans (similar to Pagan who got a 2 year 16 mil contract), I think teams value Kepler more than fans, and the Twins have needs in the outfield for 2024 so would likely need a large compensation in a trade to make it work.

Thats not what I am asking you to do. However there were 2 specific changes that helped Kepler in 2023. 1 is less shift. Second, being much more aggressive at the plate, and wanting to hit balls earlier in counts. If it gets pushed to higher counts we are in a similar situation as prior years except he has more confidence. Even still a 2-3 WAR Kepler which he has been for the last 3 seasons as you showed is very close to a QO type player worth in the 18 mil to 20 mil area. Kepler with a new approach is likely a higher WAR player than the 2-3 baseline. We will see this year. I am guessing Teoscar is in the 4 year 20 million area for a contract possibly higher (70-80 mil is effectively my baseline) and I don't think he would have accepted the qualifying offer. The Twins for 1 year would take the risk on Kepler. Kepler wants to sign a contract next year, not wait another year especially if he has a poor performance or injury.

I am more than willing to revisit this next offseason 😀. Salaries are going bonkers just look at free agency right now, the threshold for $50 million is extremely low anymore.

Even if I stated 4-5 WAR player fine. What would you say if I told you Kepler was a 4 WAR player for 3 months last year? because thats what he was. Now how does that extrapolate to this year? Does that mean he is a peak 8 WAR type player? That is more where I was gathering a 5-6 WAR. His last 3 months he was an elite hitter. Just watch Teoscar Hernandez. He is more similar to Kepler than Verdugo. I think Seattle will be regretting not putting the QO on. As to the number of QO its because this is an extremely weak free agent class.

I agree with Finn I don't think Prato is picked although I said the same thing about Baddoo and Prato is a better bat. I think we sneak through with no one being picked. Even still Prato is just another bat in this system.

Honestly, we should be more happy with this offseason if Buck is going to be healthy. I know we feel like Lucy, however, I don't think Buck ever felt well at any point last season or for the last couple years for that matter. If he is back to his elite self that dramatically changes the dynamic of the team.

No, only if they signed a player that was offered a Qualifying Offer, I think we can safely say we are ok on that front.

Honestly Kepler has quite a bit more value. Most will look at me oddly but then lets talk about the reasons. 1st, they both started about the same time, but Kepler has an over 20 WAR compared to Verdugo's 11. Peak Kepler is worth 5-6 WAR a year. I think the 3 WAR is peak Verdugo advantage Kepler. Kepler plays better defense than Verdugo. Kepler performed much better to end the season OPS plus 127 for second half last year compared to .7 for Verdugo (effectively their halves were flipped last year - would prefer a player played well recently than not). Lastly is the value to the Twins. Currently we do not have a surplus of outfielders. Red Sox have more outfielders than they know what to do with right now. They are more just removing one of the excess, and Verdugo was no longer in their long term plans or this year, it was in their interest to trade. For us it really isn't. Lastly, in a Qualifying offer situation the Twins would get a late 1st round pick. For the Red Sox it would be a much lower pick. I know some don't think Kepler will get the qualifying offer, I actually think its a pretty high chance. So I think the player would be better than effectively Judice and Fitts. Neither really move the needle. I think we would be looking for a prospect closer to a Chase Petty type player. Thats my opinion and many may think I am over valuing but I would guess compensation would come closer to that type of deal.

Teams generally don't put a pitcher on an innings limit because of Tommy John, its more due to the strength of the arm and previously handling that many innings. Personally I could see Paddack going 130 innings next year possibly 140 if the arm looks strong. They may skip a start or two, but beyond that they have him on a 2 year contract. If he blows out the arm again he is likely done. A few more innings likely isn't going to determine if it holds up or not. He will be a full 2 years removed from the Tommy John so it should be strong and healthy, which he looked this fall. After a 2nd Tommy John it is unheard of to gain velocity, and thats what Paddack did. He dialed it up to 98. Now it was the playoffs, but he was regularly in the 95 to 96 range on his 2-3 inning outing. He is throwing it easy, and the command of the secondary pitches looks really good. Stuff wise, I would argue he is maybe right there with Pablo. Maybe a little below. I am expecting his fastball to hover in the 94-95 range next year. If he can be our #3 or #4 pitcher this year with possibly being our #2 in the playoffs this year, then being our #2 in 2025 I think that would be the ideal situation.

I know Gilbert has been mentioned several times. But for the value I really like Bryan Woo. https://pitcherlist.com/bryan-woos-repertoire-is-the-blueprint-for-modern-pitching/ I have no idea what a package would look like. I said before that I don't think Kepler would get traded, but if you wanted to build a package around Kepler and a minor prospect - effectively a massive overpay, I could see that. Seattle picked him off of waivers so for them they don't have a lot invested. It works for both teams, a little less for the Twins but you would be able to get a pretty good pitcher in return with lots of control. It would be ironic if we then turned around and picked up Teoscar Hernandez, while also not shedding any salary in the maneuver for 2 years. it would really solidify the SP and OF for a little cost. It would likely mean Polanco getting traded for a prospect, but I think the Twins would work with that. It still would leave a hole at 1st base that they state they want to fill. I think 1 of Rhys Hoskins or Hernandez could be potentially targets for the Twins, but I may be wrong. Really hoping we get a little more clarity on their plans for this offseason at the winter meetings.

LOL, this thread reminds me, we need to switch to decaf 😁. We seem to be getting worried about details and possibilities that should be figured out in the offseason. I am glad we have Lee and Julien, I am also glad we have Pablo. I trust management will do its best to put a quality team on the field next year, just like they have done since they got here. The pitching staff is night and day better than 2018 to 2020 and we are finally starting to establish a bit of a pipeline in the minors.

I think Pablo is starting to establish himself as a #1 and could see him have a better season even next year on a WAR basis. Ryan struggle with health especially down the stretch. That he could do better is not out of the question. Ober will most like be pretty similar. Then you have Paddack. Even on an innings limit, I really liked the way he pitched last year. The velocity was there, and the breaking pitches looked good. No I still think as a whole it may be a little lower than next year as it stands. However look at the playoff teams you had quite a few in the 10-20 range that did really well. As long as there isn't a massive dropoff I am ok with that. Would I love to get another #2 pitcher, absolutely. However there is a cost. I am ok with trading Lee or Julien and of the two I do think Lee likely nets you the best player. As to Lee if he is the MLB team, I would say he has a 5-10% chance to win the rookie of the year. He has name recognition, and any player could get hot for a couple months. This is a balance of handling the long term needs of the team along with the short term. We effectively gutted the 2021 draft for MLB needs and up to this point have been able to replenish the minors and the depth in the minors actually looks very very good. I will wait to see what happens and will likely be ok with whatever decision is made.

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-contenders-for-2024-rookies-of-the-year Yes I've heard of Holliday. I also don't think he will start at the MLB level next year. He is 19. There is also the aspect I have more confidence in Lee handling the MLB rigors than Holliday right now. If you read the rest of my post I basically still stated the odds are low.

The Chase Petty for Sonny Gray Trade was brilliant. We received nearly 10 WAR and will be getting a draft pick at nearly the same pick as where we picked Petty. Petty although is doing well for Cincinnati and moved up to AA, has had his ceiling drop some in my opinion (while also raising his floor). He has dialed back his fastball, generally in the 93-95 range. He has had forearm and elbow discomfort for the last 2 years. He threw 98 innings in 2022 and 68 in in 2023 very similar to what Marco Raya pitched. His secondary pitches continue to be fairly strong. Even still, Chase Petty would not net you a Sonny Gray era 2022 pitcher right now in my opinion. He is not the elite fireballer that could be a #1 pitcher. He also has shown he can pitch and will likely be in the MLB assuming his elbow issues don't pop up again (once you start on elbow discomfort though, sooner or later will likely have a more significant injury). The Mahle trade was terrible. Even still CES did awesome in the minors struggled a bit in his first taste of MLB. Steer had a pretty good season, but both are poor defenders, in the mold of Julien. They may ultimately be 1st base/DH types. For the chance at a #1/#2 pitcher I understand it, but they just gave up too much. We will have to continue to trade prospects/or players for elite difference makers in the future. I am ok with that. Also our future looks really good. The 2022 and 2023 drafts both have done very very good as well as the prior drafts. This FO is setting us up for sustained success and I am very happy about that.

I am conflicted about this. I have been a pretty big proponent that Lee has high value to be traded. Both him and Julien have high values. I am slightly changing my tune a bit. Lee has the ability and defensive talent, and demeanor that could handle being the super utility for the Twins. Thats a lot to ask from a rookie. I feel fairly comfortable he would give us .700 OPS and has the possibility to be higher. I don't think he will ever be an elite bat, but a very solid bat with good defense (think a higher end Kepler) and that has more value that even I was thinking about. I would say he is currently the odds on favorite for rookie of the year (I don't count on this, but it gives another chance at a late first round draft pick). If he performs his value will jump even higher. He has the floor of a very effective mlb player. So do you trade him. If another team really likes him and is effectively willing to give 1 for 1 for a high end pitcher with 2+ years of control, it would make me think long and hard. Ultimately though, I really like the pitching staff we have and I would rather trade from prospects in the 5-20 range for a middling or back end starter. In the future we can decide what to do with Lee and Julien, but performance and injuries may make this decision moot, and at that point I would really want a Lee to be able to fill a hole.

Honestly I take the salary discussion as a red herring. I think Falvey wanted it very clear that the decision to decrease payroll was coming from Ownership due to TV deal, even though I don't think that is entirely true. There have been a couple reports being very optimistic not only on a TV deal but also the money they expect to get. So do the previous salary constraints go completely away . . . No and yes. It solves the revenue issue but not necessarily a reduction in costs. I think the Twins had already spent money last year before Correa came available again. In signing him, they went over budget and were given a 1 time ok for doing that. In my mind they were over by $10 mil over where they should have been. So a little pullback was natural, add in the TV deal and yes I think the Twins should be in the $130 to $150 range for the near future for a budget once the TV money is fixed. The Twins had a $134 budget in 2022. We will see what happens but this isn't something that I am going to ruffle my feathers about. I know the Twins are a smaller market team, and unless more fans are going to come out to the games or subscribed this is the type of payrolls we can expect going forward, around 16-20.

Pagan is a player many were wanting to just drop in June. Yes he had a nice end of the season, but the Twins finally figured out to only put him in the lowest of low leverage situations often at the bottom of the line-up, and he could do ok. Still shaky but ok. He is going to the Reds where with a $16 million contract he is going to be expected to not only be in high leverage situations at the top of the line-up, but also in a band box of stadium. There is no way he was worth $16 million. Maybe a 1 year 5 million or a 2 for $8. This has nothing to do with budget constraints.

Pretty sure its been mentioned several times on here. Its also been mentioned that they are looking at the trade market for SP so I don't think this sets it in stone for a FA SP but it does leave an option if they find someone of reasonable value. In general though the FA bargain have not worked out well for the Twins. Would rather just go with Varland. Frankie Montas is interesting but would most likely get out of our price range. The milb deal for a back up SP I have mentioned as well, but prior to the winter meetings this is the type of news we get.

Between Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Jenkins, E Rodriguez, and Winokur I like the options for the outfield for the next 3-4 years and then is trying to figure out if Buxton can ever come back healthy.

Looking at Woofs previous post, I will take what he claimed here with a grain of salt. He has a strong disdain for the reduction in payroll and the Pohlads. It doesn't mean the claim isn't true, but with nothing else to back it up its as substantive as Sonny stating he wanted to retire LOL.

Curious where that rumor mill is coming from. Besides that the payroll is being determined by the TV contracts. Once that is resolved most likely we are back on the previous tract. I would be curious if Correa is that unhappy has a great year if he would want to be traded. Correa on a 4 Year 132 million contract with options is a very reasonable contract especially if he puts up a 4-6 WAR this year. If Correa performs, we should be able to put more than enough quality players around the team to continue to compete. Pablo Lopez signing an extension was huge. You have a #1 or #2 pitcher locked in for 4 years. The bullpen is still a bit of a question mark but begins to be less cloudy if we can find 1 more young elite pitcher to add in there (Varland anyone LOL). The long-term picture for the Twins looks very good to me. As long as the Twins continue to do well in the drafts like they have, the foreseeable future looks very good. The 2022 draft was a knockout (and thats even with Priellip having a set back), if 2023 is even better which it has the possibility then we should have more than enough solid arms and bats coming up through the system in the next 2-3 years to put on the field or for potential trades.

Looking at 1 year performance record to determine whether a contract was good or not is a fools errand. What was promising was how Correa played in the post season. We can say he gave us $9 million worth of performance for the year, I would guestimate, he helped give us much higher return, if you would count an additional 2 games in the playoffs. He was clutch and helped us when games. What is the value of 2 extra home games, 15 mil? 20 Mil? 30 mil? net profit. He looked like the regular Correa. At a $200 mil contract, it is worth the risk. I wish they wouldn't have signed and let Lewis and Lee grow into the SS and 3rd base of the future, but a Lee/Julien, Lewis, Correa infield has the potential to rival any infield in the league. If we can solidify the outfield and 1st base we have a window opening at possibly giving us a chance at a WS in the next 3-4 years before several young players start becoming free agents.