Hawkeye Bean Counter

We need a legit C prospect. Who are you going to play C in 2026/2027 especially if you trade Jeffers?

Controllable bat, or an additional arm. I think the trades would key on getting another RP for the bullpen, and additional high end SP prospect and a Catcher. Rushing seems to be the highest candidate. That seems like the minimum for effectively a rebuild of some sort.

Keaschall has value, done well all the way up and plays a position we are really deep in for the foreseeable future. Buy and Sell could get interesting. Who is posting this?

Yes the odds we can trade that much talent is doubtful, but if they start the teardown, they might as well go through with it, if they can get ample trade value back or overpays.

Just for giggles - what would you think of this. Jax traded to Red Sox for Duran (OF) and Toole (SP) . 3 1/2 years control for Duran (replaces Bader) and a top end SP 6' 6" that matches what the Twins like. Ryan to Dodgers for Rushing (C) and Ferris (P) and Freeland (3B) Duran to Phillies for Painter (RP) and Crawford (OF). Bader to Yankees for Spencer Jones (OF) Would put Painter in the bullpen. Rushing becomes our backup catcher and long term catcher. and Duran replaces Bader. You add 2 solid pitching prospects in Toole and and Ferris and Freeland (3B) and Crawford to the prospect lists.

When we are on the selling side we have done really well. For the most part trades have been very much in the Twins favor. Arraez for Pablo (This is a massive win for the Twins). Polanco for Gonzalez, Topa and Bowen (ignore Desclafani - negative asset) (Win for the Twins possibly becoming a really big win) Gray for Petty (Obvious advantage for the Twins and add in continuing value with Debarge) Ryan for Nelson Cruz. (Again massive win for the Twins). The only ones that went sideways were when we were buyers in 2022. Even those for the most part haven't really hurt. If we are holding the leverage I really like the prospects of getting our value. I am not for a total rebuild but there is part of me that thinks if they were to trade Duran, Jax, Ryan, Coloumbe, Castro and Bader (to overpays) - you could quickly rebuild your team either from the trades or additional trades from the offseason and be net ahead in prospect capital. I really do hate tanking, but getting higher draft capital would be a benefit as well. Rebuilding the bullpen would be the primary issue, but I do like Varland and think he could become our long term closer.

We have already won the Polanco trade. He was a negative WAR last year. He then resigned with Seattle.

As a whole, the Twins haven't lost much in trades. I see it more they have given up on players that had true talent. The only trade that I think has the real potential to bite a bit is Noah Miller (again a player I felt we gave up on just as starting to turn a bit of a corner), and I don't think the bat will ever be good enough for the MLB level. He is already starting to really cool off in AAA. The Gray and Ryan trades have been by far the best trades on the Twins ledger. The only thing I would say is if we can get a massive overpay, on a Ryan, Jax, Duran - you could in theory take that ammo to trade for another pitcher in the offseason which 2 full seasons of a pitcher should be less than 2 1/2. There is significant risk with that strategy. With the comp picks any more, you really need to get immense values in these trades any more for the top players. I still think as they get healthy this team could make a run. I am pretty conflicted overall on what the strategy should be.

Excluding Houston and Priellip (who could be by the end of the year) - Our top 9 prospects have been on a top 100 MLB ranking at some point in their minor league career. Holy crap thats a feat. Houston has the defense, I am just not sure the bat is good enough. A utility player or defensive backup is not worth a whole lot. For my rankings, Houston is 11, the pitchers are 6-9 in some order, Winokur comes in at 10, and Gonzalez is 5. Gonzalez is an elite bat with likely adequate defense in his 20's. Even still I think he is a 2+ WAR player most years in the MLB. For everyone wanting defense, running ability, power - Winokur has that all in spades. The bat is just a tad too streaky but he is on a heck of a heater now. .400/.481/.578 for July. Holy crap. Right now he is the best low minors positional player by quite a margin in my opinion. He appears to have the contact ability when on stretches to continue to improve. With his ceiling and flashes of brilliance, I think he is in the same ballpark, as Priellip, Hill, Soto and Quick.

So Jamie, did you ever like Arraez? He is effectively the outfield version of Arraez witha little more power. Gonzalez is also 21. He has time to become a better defender and gain more power. A 21 year old mashing in AA is a 21 year old mashing in AA. Thats a hell of a feat in any situation. It also means that bat will most likely translate. AA is generally the make or break level, of determining MLB talent. Not to say players cant plateau at AAA, or be AAAA never being able to figure out the MLB level, but the biggest hurdle is AA. Gonzalez after an adjustment period has improved immensely. I have thought Gabriel has looked a little more fit this summer, I think it has also helped his performance. Right now I think the biggest risk for Gonzalez will be the nutrition side. He will need to keep all the athleticism he has. He absolutely cannot go down the Sano path. What this article is kind of showing is that we want to peg players into boxes or cookie cutter molds. Had you been writing articles what would you have thought of someone like Kirby Puckett. Like Gonzalez, shorter build, stocky legs, he did have more speed especially early in career, but he could hit the crap out of the ball (even though a .620 OPS in AAA in 20 games and a .650 OPS in MLB the remainder of 1984). Based on the projection you are making of Gonzalez you likely wouldn't have thought much of Puckett. The power didn't begin to show up until he was 26. I am not here to say Gonzalez is Kirby Puckett, just making a point. Gonzalez even now will be rated higher than Arraez ever was and will be given more opportunities. Honestly, as long as he continues to tweak and get a little better with the bat, there is very little imagination needed to see him as an everyday MLB player.

My gut feel is they liked Taitn Gray. Had 3 of the other highest exit velocities besides Young. But he was picked 2 picks ahead of Ellwanger in the 3rd round. Possibly Bodine as well.

Lewis has really good power. He had a solid approach all the way through the minors and early career in the majors. I really think those early homeruns has him chasing, and missing too many good pitches.

We seem to be in purgatory for any big moves due to the sale. I don't anticipate any big trades or unless the new owners have already approved, and/or the haul outweighs the player. The only 3 that that could apply to is Ryan, Duran and Jax. So slim to none. Bader and Coloumbe could be flipped for something useful. We could really use an upgrade at 1st base. I would love to see a minor trade to upgrade 1st honestly. Then hope Lewis, Wallner and Correa pick it up in the second half. If so we could have a legit team for the playoffs. Solid starting pitching, a deep bullpen and a pretty decent lineup. We have the pieces to make a run.

FCL has done pretty well. No body that is a massive outperfomer, but lots of solid hitters and pitchers. Beltre, De Los Santos and Acuna are probably the 3 hitting prospects to watch. They haven't hit as well as they did last year, but all 3 have potential. Melvin Rodriguez, Joel Garcia, and Anderson Ramos all seem to have some pitching talent, but no one that is considered on the level of a Bohorquez. They seem to be winning on sum of parts situation than 1 or 2 elite performers. The jump from FCL to A ball is crazy though. Yasser Mercedes in 5 games has 1.395 OPC in FCL, while only sporting a .520 OPS at Fort Myers. Bohorquez struggled immensely early on but now seems to have adjusted to the better talent.

We have 4 college arms that have as much potential or more than - Preilipp, Soto, Hill. Had we ended up with just Quick and Barr I think most would have been happy. You added in Ellwanger and Reitz. It really increases the odds 1 or multiple of the 4 will reach their ceilings. I didn't mention it earlier, but I do think some teams have figured out the Twins tendencies and sniped some of their better pitching prospects they have found in the later rounds which may be why they took more stabs earlier . Either that or 2022 could become a massive outlier, which it likely was already go look at that draft crazy (Lee MLB, Matthews MLB - Priellip, Morris, Culpepper, Lewis, Cossetti, Baez, Ortega, Jones, Shuffied - thats just a stupid amount of talent in 1 draft). But you had quite a few of us, who thought Matthews, Lewis and Culpepper were interesting arms. It may be why the Twins switched a bit and seemed to take their pitching stabs earlier in the draft. Especially with a system that seems to be pretty strong on hitting prospects.

The Twins took a quite a few catchers last year. 3rd - Diaw, 4th - Ferrer, 6th Bender (won't get into this pick). I've been on vacation so this is my first posts on the draft. Its incredibly hard to find anything after the 13th round so not going to delve to much into that other than 1 pick. Merit Jones. Stats are meh, but then you have the Twins have picked him in 2 consecutive drafts. Why? More than anything they like his stuff. I also read an article that stats being in Utah in the elevated elevation they really don't take much stock in those stats. It may also be an explanation why he did better in the MLB League. I actually think there may be something worthwhile here. As to the rest of the draft. This is the best overall pitching class we have drafted in the Falvey era. Its not even close. Quick, Ellwanger, Reitz and Barr is quite the pitching draft haul. This draft was known for being light on hitting but strong on pitching so ultimately not surprised that we went pitching heavy, but all 4 seem to really lean into what the Twins do well, and also have a much higher floor than most of the pitching prospects we have drafted in recent history. Mitrovich, Smith, Fang and Jones continue the Twins propensity to try and strike gold in the later rounds with pitching prospects. As a whole, I don't see many throw away picks for draft savings. Whether you like them or not, the 2 High School picks will determine how good this class can be. You have the masher in Young with the highest of ceilings, and the really solid prospect that seems to do everything right in Agbayani. Some have mentioned they don't like Agbayani as much. I actually think odds are he has the better chance at getting to the big leagues, even though I actually really like the Young pick. With Young you do have a player that 1 has talent, 2 has pedigree (good and bad), 3. Has some mentors to rely on. Both Dmitri and Delmon excelled in the minors. He stood out at the combine with 3 of the hardest hit balls exit velocities, very similar to Winokur in his year at the combine. Agbayani I see as someone again with pedigree that will likely outwork other players to be successful. At 6'2" he has a little more size and I would say athleticism to work with than his dad. Hit tool 50 and run tool 55. I wouldn't be surprised if the hit tool is a little better than currently being graded. He is a 6th rounder, but I think you could find a really solid find there. The 1st round pick is the only one I think I may have qualms about although I can rationalize it. You passed up probably one of the top 5 bats in Irish that could have been a C, but if not an outfielder. For a good bat/great defensive shortstop. If Irish is able to stick at Catcher I think you would have a starter Catcher for a decade. After his injury that may not be the case. So if he is relegated to outfield I can see why they then went with the defensive/solid bat in Houston. If Houston does well at Shortstop its a more valuable commodity. Who knows, we may match up well with a trade in the future with the Orioles who seem to have a ton of catching prospects. Overall its a really solid draft. Its most likely a draft that will outperform what most people would expect from it. You have 4 legit pitching prospects that each have the possibility of being a #1 or #2 type pitcher. Bat wise, your highest ceiling player is Young, with Houston being a pretty safe pick to become at the very least a solid defensive shortstop. There are a few other bats that are interesting, Agbayani, Robinson (seems like Houston lite) - Daniels (may be the 3rd best hitting prospect of the draft) - JP Smith II (Quentin Young lite) - immense power, likely a lot of holes in the swing. For 18th round pick you may find a player there. Ive always been a draft guy, this draft has a lot of potential. Stacking up multiple good drafts is the key to future success. Since 2022 the Twins have been drafting immensely well. We will see if they can continue the outperformance, and start to find a few more elite players. This seems to be that type of draft of drafting players that have the elite ceiling that we haven't targeted as much in the past.

I think we are looking at this more than the Twins most likely are. They spent a little money to get priority on a player they thought would get picked by someone else in waivers. Most likely there isn't enough there to be an MLB player but maybe just maybe things will click. There is ample history of players struggling then doing well with another team. There is also ample history of most of those players moving onto another team or out of baseball. For me this is a AAA arm currently and for that it is ok. I am not extrapolating this out anymore than that. I will say the Twins haven't been great at these reclamation projects. Most have gone on to other teams. We did get Coloumbe back though for cheap so I guess give them some props for that.

Health wise, this team has been crushed. No offense I am actually impressed they have been playing .500 ball here recently. That is pretty impressive down Ober, Matthews, Lopez on the pitching side. Keaschall should be coming back soon as well. Offensively we could see the team get on a roll and the starting pitching really starting to solidify itself soon. I don't think we have or should be in a selling position. I would rather go for it, maybe even be slight buyers. or buyers and sellers if it makes sense. This is not a team I would just give up on. The have the talent and players that they could make noise in the post season.

I will say with any player the level of Jax, Duran, Ryan, is doing the math you could get a comp pick you could get for them if they play through while the Twins retain control. That part of the equation has increased the value for smaller to mid market teams retaining players and/or increasing the trade value equation.

You can't say Irish won't stick at catcher. The Twins have actually taken some decent bat 1st players and tried to make them into catchers. It appears they are doing more work with Gasper, they are doing it with Ferrer. Ryan Jeffers is the prime example. Irish is more likely to be gone by the Twins pick and we will see which direction they go. Go look back at Ryan Jeffers and tell me what is that much different. "Jeffers was not listed in MLB.com’s top-200 draft-eligible prospects list, and was No. 295 on the list compiled by Baseball America. The guys at BA remarked about his consistent numbers, but aren’t sure about his ability to stick behind the plate due to an average arm back there. He’s not much of a runner and there’s a question of how his bat will transfer over to using wood full-time."

You go with the greatest overpay. You can always trade for a Catcher. Our plans could change a bit and beyond based on the draft this weekend. More and more my hope is for some reason Ike Irish falls and pick him at 16 and he is able to stick as a Catcher. He could/should be a fast riser and a situation where you may only need a place holder at C for a year or 2. We honestly do have some depth options at AA and AAA for C. Just no one with a bigger name or profile that you would expect to run with the position. I am ok with smaller trades but I am leaning more and more that I would be ok if the Twins traded a Ryan, Jax or Duran.

In reading the headline I expected the bats to be quiet. Holy crap they were not. Our top 20 prospects for the most part have been hitting the crap out of the ball the last month or so. They started out a little slow but seem to be in the full swing of things. Culpepper and Gonzalez this year are just wow. Debarge - bat has been a little light, OBP really good, and then has been an absolute demon on the basepaths Winokur - the projection on him is pretty crazy. Winokur is much better athlete than I anticipated. The bat is violent. He really seems to be a streaky hitter. After doing pretty well at spring training, he really started off slow at Cedar Rapids. He has gotten a little better each month, and is starting off July on a bit of a hot streak. Yesterday was 1st homer of the month but OPS is over .900 in Those are long levers and and a big strike zone to manage at 6'5". He has been the primary SS for the kernels in July. I am also wondering if having a single position to focus on is helping. Will keep an eye on this. Lots to be happy about this year so far. I am very happy about Raya turning the corner. Him and Bohorquez really started off the season rough. Both have seemed to pull out of it.

He's been hitting the ball all year, not just a heater. .320/.430/.920 slash line for the year in 2 leagues. To start the year I would have told you he didn't have much of a shot at catching, playing primarily 1st base. I really don't know much about his defensive metrics, but since he came up to AA he has been playing catcher over 50% of the time - while crushing the ball. His rotation appears to be catch 2 games, a game at 1st, catch a game, DH a game and then repeat. His career averages throwing out a stealer at 10%, in extremely small sample size is at 26% in AA. It does appear he may be making some improvements this year in that regards sitting at 16%. The catching prospects have been solid this year. Although we have had a few fizzle out. In AAA you have Winkle/Cardenas/Camargo. Camargo has really struggled with the bat. Winkle and Cardenas have had very solid years. Winkle and Cardenas both have OPS in the .800's AA - You have Baez, Cossetti and Olivar. Cossetti maybe more of a 1st baseman. Baez has been a stud with the bat both Cossetti and Olivar have been solid. High A - Diaw appears to be a legitimate prospect but I believe is shelved for the year with an injury. Low A - no major prospects in my opinion. The catching position looks a lot more solid than I expected when doing a deeper dive.

1, Lets look at Joe. Very, very good pitcher for the Twins. The trend has been for him to do very well through about June/July, get injured or wear out and significantly regress the remainder of the year. His career OPS+ in the first half of the season is 91, the 2nd half is 120. This is a multiple year trend, so we have to expect regression even this year. 2. They only trade him if absolutely blown away and that they know they are winning the trade. Ultimately they have to replace a pitcher, have enough pitchers to replace him with and upgrade the prospects or roster or both significantly. 3. Say what you will about Falvey, I do think trade wise he does very well in valuations and trade returns for the most part. Joe is not a primary trade chip. I would not like to see him traded, don't expect to see him traded, but if he is I anticipate the trade return will be extremely good. I still anticipate a bit of a win streak taking us out of the sell side of the equation.

We seem to have some parts getting healthy I'm not sure now would be the time to be sellers but if so I think for the most part its just marginal pieces. I don't see us getting rid of Buxton, Ober, Ryan, Correa, Jax or Duran. So what does that leave us with. 1. Harrison Bader - With a very solid bat this year and excellent defense, I would think he would be the highest value. He has a mutual option year at $10 million for next year. 2. Castro - Could get some decent return. 3. Stewart - consistently injured, consistently elite pitching when available 4. Ty France, the definition of mediocre this year, but a professional bat for 1 million dollar and above average defense might find someone wanting as a back up like last year in Cincy. Would we be willing to run with Julien or Clemens? I suppose someone could try to pick off a Varland or Sands but the cost is too high. I also don't think anyone really wants Vazquez and we don't have anyone to put as a backup in my opinion.