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The Wise One

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Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    Kelly Johnson was with the Mets last year. They went with someone they knew and available. Data on Plouffe in looking at his for this season and ignoring the rest of his work is fine, but the first two months of a prospects career tell you nothing? Please.
  2. The Wise One
    April and May is enough time to tell if players are bad but an equal time on the other end of the season is not. Yup, June July, August and September would be better. A full season or two would be better. Stupid thing about trades, it requires 2 teams. It is not unreasonable to think it is going to take a month and a half to move some of the players.
  3. The Wise One
    Berrios, Chargois, Walker, and Jason Wheeler should then all be spending from August on with the Twins after they have traded a bunch of veterans. Garver, Turner, Granite might also fit in the audition category for September. Anyone on the 40 man roster older than 26 ought to be trade bait. There are 13-14 players that fit that demographic. Abad to a contender would fetch the most but a couple others might bring back more than a tuna can. The more of them they trade, the more people can post in 2 years how stupid the Twins were to trade them. Here is hoping some notoriously bad trading teams are on the edge of the playoffs in July.
  4. The Wise One
    Plouffe has been a streaky kind of hitter who hasn't had a streak this year. Hard to figure out what exactly is going wrong for Plouffe. K % and BABIP is around his career norm, Batted ball spray chart looks sort of similar except for fewer black dots (HR) Walks are down, ISO is down. He doesn't show the power numbers. That would lead me to wonder if they are pitching and defending him differently
  5. The Wise One
    Bleacher report, Craig Lambert, Baseball America think Dakota Hudson. If as advertised as the second best college pitcher, I don't think he will be there Sickles currently says Thaiss the catcher. Contact hitter, not a great defensive catcher. I do not think that is a good guess either. The guys at Scout.com think Connor Jones. They say he projects as mid rotation. If there is more potential elsewhere I would guess they would go elsewhere.. Wimmers may cured them of "safe" picks. Callis has Kirriloff Many of the draft sites do have interesting things to say http://www.dcprosportsreport.com/MLBMocks.htm That will get you to links of other people's opinions. You can kill a lot of time there.
  6. The Wise One
    Yet the Royals won it all last year with the best defense, one of the lowest strikeout staffs in the league, with a middling offense that managed to score runs. TK might have understood something. The difference between the best K/9 teams and the worst was between 1 and 2 K/9 Leaguewise K/9 did not start creeping up until the mid 90's That is also the timeframe for the start of the steroid era TK's era a better defense was more important than high strikeout pitchers. In the era of 4 or 5 strikeouts a game, not walking people was the best thing a pitcher could do. Times change, though KC has proven you do not need to be more than even league average K/9 to be successful
  7. The Wise One
    Does St Peter make Pohlad money? When the answer sustains no there will be changes. Does there need to be someone above Ryan? To do what? Big picture thinking is the GM's job. Long term planning is the GM's job.
  8. The Wise One
    Jim Merrit for Leo Cardenas says hello What player did the Twins get for Dave Hollins? Yes one for one trades you generally get what you give up. Occasionally you get the player that thrives in a new environment
  9. The Wise One
    Perhaps one of the minor league gurus can help me out on this. Meyer does not appear to have the greatest control in the world. He strikes out a fair percentage of the batters. In the minors when he pitches he does not walk as great of percentage as the small sample size in the majors. That may well be due to the better batting eye at the mlb level. As long as Meyer walks a large % of batters he will not have success as a major league pitcher. The differential between the % K and BB should be above 10 for a starter, It does not appear to me that they do not think that Meyer was going to get there the way he was throwing
  10. The Wise One
    Time passing Ryan by? Rather than safe 3-4 year college starters Ryan's staff has gone boom or bust with drafting. He probably could have had Ross Detwiler for Span. Ryan went high risk/ high reward. Ryan does not completely operate as he did in the past
  11. The Wise One
    Astro's need 3 starting pitchers and McHugh and Keuchel are not doing so well either. McCullers has a shoulder injury. As it was they barely held off the Angels for the playoffs. I wouldn't be getting too excited until they figure out a starting pitching rotation that does not resemble the early 2000's Twins
  12. The Wise One
    Some of the prospects sitting is all on Molitor. As much as people derided Gardy for not liking young players, Molitor appears more reluctant.
  13. The Wise One
    wimp pitchers can't take being hit by the ball. As bad as catchers who can't take bats bouncing off their heads.
  14. The Wise One
    Baseball America said a few years ago. Cal Quantrill is a righthander from Trinity College School in Port Hope, Ont. His father, Paul, spent 14 years in the big leagues. Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-qa-cal-quantrill/#DXWuDQWWCsg1OKZs.99
  15. The Wise One
    Boom or bust. Perhaps the study then should be difference in outcomes between boom or bust hitters and the shortened swing and try to make contact outcomes. There is some reason why many teams have more of a no fear of striking out approach
  16. The Wise One
    As the comparison was Sano to Santana for your counterpoint, considering Santana's injury are you saying Sano then should not run.? Inciarte hurt his on the basebath. Ethier injured his leg with a foul ball. Perhaps then by the equation, Sano better not bat as given his weight, he might shatter his leg with a foul ball.
  17. The Wise One
    The people who complain that Sano in the outfield is a danger to his health would be the ones to have the data to say that it is more likely for him to get hurt. So far all I have ever seen is speculation without data. If one argues for a change from the status quo, saying prove me wrong is not the best way to prove the argument.
  18. The Wise One
    Buxton had 59 AB in AAA and hit over .400. What more would Buxton have to learn at AAA? He came, he saw, he crushed. His batting average last year in the majors was the learning curve and adjustment phase. Now that he is all learned and adjusted, with his speed he can hit well over .300, Surely he will have a hit for every third at bat.
  19. The Wise One
    Try over his career to get something approach a sample size that can not be called limited. BABIP is going to be "unsustainably" high with a much higher than average LD% It will also stay unsustainably high when you have a higher than average hard hit ball percentage. BABIP is not totally luck. 7.4 versus 7.9 is not that big of difference.. again, you continue to argue small sample sizes and "Throw out the one bad outing" which happened against one of the worst offensive teams last year. Again nothing you post shows someone who is going to be anything different than the middle of the rotation starter that people complain of the Twins signing
  20. The Wise One
    1 year 3 million on Marquis. There are many free agent busts let go in the last year of the contract, but before them it is hope for the best,. The best hope for moving Nolasco was a team having a couple of disasters
  21. The Wise One
    Last player anybody released with multiple years left on a contract was? Dump Nolasco? Not happening without someone wanting tortrade for him
  22. The Wise One
    There are 3 things that seem to escape the May as a starter crowd. One is the ERA climb as the innings went on as a starter. It goes up by 2. The out of zone swinging strike rate is average at best. The second or more times they see him, the more bad things happen Two, He has a league average strikeout rate as a starter. To have that as an upside is of little use when he also ranks as a very hittable pitcher as a starter. Three, the numbers all go in a positive direction as a reliever. Small sample sizes all around. 25 games as a starter, 33 as a reliever. So what is there to base the mythical upside on?
  23. The Wise One
    I can use the same dark rose colored glasses you wear and say that Nolasco has had a history of seasons with 4 WAR, Santana and Hughes had seasons in the 5+ That is their upside. As a starter May had an xfip of 3.98, The percentage of hard hit and weakly hit balls served up by May is the upside you people ignore, He is hitable as a starter. Fangraphs, the holy grail of some people, offers this piece of brutal news The Quick Opinion: May has taken over for Casey Fien as the closer-in-waiting in Minnesota, it would seem. As a reliever, May is a fireballer who will help your rates. As a starter, he's a bit too hittable to be more than a back-end guy. Keep an eye on his status in the spring. As a reliever being able to have a couple more MPH on the fastball makes him effective. Fret not, if the higher upside of Meyer, Burdi, Chargois, Reed and Melotakis comes through, May will start at some point late this year, early next year.
  24. The Wise One
    Molasco was 31 when he signed a4 year contract, not 33 For a 6 year period Nolasco totaled over 21 WAR, above average as a pitcher. . Trevor May with 2012 being the only year he registered as a top 100 prospect in 7 years in the minors is not, nor will be, top of rotation. 16 starts for May, Above average SIERA, xfip, and ERA where being above average is not a good thing. Dramatically reversed as a reliever. At a time where more value is being placed on relief pitching, the well above average relievers were getting 3/18 or better contracts. Norris and Fister, below average starters that were young and once full of promise got one year deals.
  25. The Wise One
    Players peak at 27. Why then are people wasting time on a guy who is almost over the hill.
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