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The Wise One

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Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    What if What ifs is all the people have to go on. Whatever it is that the Twins are not seeing out of May last year as a starter that caused them to call up Duffrey still exist.
  2. The Wise One
    Being in the bullpen will not hurt May's contract . If he becomes a great reliever he will make more money than being a mediocre starter. Nothing says he will be great as a reliever, then again nothing saying he would be great as a starter
  3. The Wise One
    http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/peak_age_by_length_of_career/ http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/the_ten_year_aging_curve/ Different researchers different things. The drop off comes later for better players. Of note, The decline that older players show from year to year comes from the fatigue through the year, Decline for Plouffe is less likely to be significant by other research until around 33. Decline should hardly be a factor in deciding to extend him. Given that Frese, a 2 war player couldn't get but 3m a year and only now, it should put to rest why Plouffe was not tradeable
  4. The Wise One
    If your upside is mediocrity, what difference does it make.
  5. The Wise One
    Try reading the data on the aging curve of 10 year players with 5000 PA. If Plouffe is that kind of player, the decline will not be pronounced until 34.
  6. The Wise One
    Isn't Meyer going to be the shut down reliever? Sooner or later, a reliever is going to be ROY, might as well be Meyer
  7. The Wise One
    There is a higher likelihood of a second TJ than getting a first. That Hughes has pitched more major league innings than Gibson is a reflection of not being a college pitcher, not having TJ, and does not mean that he is more prone to wearing out faster than Gibson would.
  8. The Wise One
    Over the last two years there were 100 pitchers that managed to pitch 250 innings. Kyle Gibson is one of them. By WAR he ranks 45. There probably some variability over the years but I don not think it is unreasonable To think Gibson maintaining his current pitching would be considered a number 2 starter. What is that worth? These figures are from spotrac. Some of you might need a barf bag for these numbers. Coming in at number 24 in salary per year for a starting pitcher, Ervin Santana Tied for 33, Nolasco Number 50 is Hughes, Gibson would slot somewhere between Hughes and Santana So after you figure out is Gibson the Read Deal you then would have to figure what to pay. Wade Miley got 3/18 to buy out his arb years and 12m option plus incentives versus a you are a bust buyout. That would be your basis. For Gibson then there is the question of security versus better payday. If I were Gibson I would take security.
  9. The Wise One
    Market conditions vary from year to year, and throughout the season. The trouble with this winter was with a contending team needing a third base guy. There were none where Plouffe would be an upgrade except for maybe Boston. Plouffe had 2 seasons of decent production, but not so great that he is a got to have player, except for the Twins. The Twins did not have many players playing at the got to have level. Plouffe was closest. People may say to move him, what I would ask them is where to. Extend? Depends on how this year goes. A decline in the offensive numbers he might not be worth the extention
  10. The Wise One
    Sarcasm. The imagine comment I thought was more than enough of a clue to not take it seriously.
  11. The Wise One
    Last high level prospect Ryan traded was? Low level prospects, for filler, I can't recall him trading any prospect that he thought had a chance. Bill Smith was different. If Ryan was going to move an outfielder I think Arcia would get moved before Kepler.. Arcia, Plouffe and Nolasco to the first team that loses a starter for the season or that team's two better prospects. (What would a thread that had the word trade in it without a Nolasco or Plouffe proposal in it. As long as the imagination quotient is high, remember that a spot will also have to be made for AB Walker by midseason)
  12. The Wise One
    Sell high on Dozer. Walker brought back a middle to late rotation pitcher in a trade. That there War number says Dozier is better than Walker. The bat numbers say Walker is better. The Twins need better than a mid rotation starter. Dozier is not going to get a number 2 without a package deal. He could fetch a B+ prospect or two. that does nothing for the short termm Polanco? OBP machine perhaps. More of a potential leadoff hitter. That has value. If production=HR, no Polanco can't replace Dozier. If production = 101 WRC+ then it is possible for Polanco to exceed Dozier.
  13. The Wise One
    It means that you will work until you are 70 because you will have to feed your habit. Yu might not be able to do that retired. Those 10-11 years will go by quickly
  14. The Wise One
    How many times is there a rumor on there about a Twin's player being traded? Around deadline time there is speculation. Not so much in the off season. The last two trades of regular position players were Span and Revere. Not much of a peep before they happened. Please free to correct, but the last trade of a regular before those two was Hardy The point of the OP, which usually gets forgotten about at point on a thread, was about showing your work. Sorry, but perpetuating idle speculation that conversations they think have not happened is old when the track record is considered. TR is very good about being silent in the off season of who he trades or who he signs as a free agent for that matter, The inactivity of the "rumor mill" is no sign of anything when it comes to TR. Name a logical team for Plouffe to go to. Is there a contender with a 3b significantly worse than Plouffe? That should be another clue as to why Plouffe's name is not in the print. There is not a team that would gain from having him as a 2 year plan. At 7m for this year, he is not worth it for a rebuild team to take unless they only have to give up a power pitcher that throws a straight fastball.
  15. The Wise One
    Show your work. What is your proof they had no discussions with anyone. What GM talks about people they want to trade before it happens. Is it totally unreasonable to think that a GM would keep quiet about shopping a player. Since you think he should have been traded or shopped, what team did you expect him to go to? The team called idunno?
  16. The Wise One
    Your all are not inclined to show your work for your claims that you make. Take the Plouffe trade. A few thousand posts that Plouffe should have been traded. Freese is still unsigned. Other 3b just a little below signed for baseball minimal wages. Who is going to give anything for him. Mythical trades hat you were upset that did not happen, yet if Plouffe were traded for a class A B prospect and a prayer there would be whining about Ryan getting fleeced. Refuse to show why what you say is plausible. It makes it more believable..
  17. The Wise One
    2013 according to ESPN the second best starter was Nolasco with Jiminnez rated better than him. . Hughes was an upside signing that the base says the team should do but cannot acknowledge it has happened. 2014 Santana was ranked as the sixth best pitcher. Time will tell if the Twins made a decent decision or not were the right ones or not. Not for the last 2 years. Bold moves. To get something you have to give up something. Gordon and Gonslaves for Kazmir at the deadline. Good trade or bad. Berrios, Polanco , Kepler and since it was at the deadline last year, Duensing for Giles? Takes something to get something. There was a lot of consternation about what Ryan gave up for Jepson. Imagine what the uproar would be over giving up top prospect for a rental player or a player that gets injured.
  18. The Wise One
    Yup, you are correct. O the other hand, they still did not go out and get a fourth to fill out the bullpen. With 6 inning starters you need four to prevent Perkins from wearing out.
  19. The Wise One
    Santana overall is a better option than Benson, Mastro and the other guy signed off the street. They all will get a chance. Santana will stick with performance. Tonkin has a job to lose. If he does lose it, I think it would be in May, not spring training. Arcia?, who knows.
  20. The Wise One
    There are people who seem to think that a minor league signing means going to be on the major league roster Quentin, Mastro, Sweeney, Abad, Boshers, Kinzler, and one time September call up Benson all signed minor league contracts with invites. Sorry, not with the out of option players Santana, Arcia, and Tonkin will there be much culled from the heap. The reliever who pitches the best and the person who can hit if Arcia or Park can't from the non roster invitees may make the squad.
  21. The Wise One
    10 million? Why would you give Punto a 20 year contract?
  22. The Wise One
    The average age trending downwards could me multifactorial. Better and faster pitching leads to average age going down. Better metrics would lead teams to identify poor developing and or over the hill players quicker. To say the age is up because of the popularity of college would say that going to college stunts development significantly. Remember the graphs are for MLB players not MLB and MiLB players. Similarly for international players signed at 16 might not develop as quickly
  23. The Wise One
    May's numbers as a starter look an awful lot like nolasco's career marks.
  24. The Wise One
    Pardon the derailment but I went digging around on Baseball Prospectus for major injuries—either major surgeries like Tommy John, labrum repairs, etc. or injuries that resulted in at least 100 days missed—suffered by each pitcher taken in the 1999-2008 window within five years of being drafted. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1656599-2013-mlb-draft-are-high-school-or-college-arms-the-better-first-round-risk Not every pitcher had injury data available, but I was able to dig up 41 major injuries for the 150 college pitchers and 29 major injuries for the 97 college pitchers. That's 27.3 percent versus 29.9 percent, which is way too small of a difference to draw a definitive conclusion about which side is more fragile than the other—especially in light of the apparent incompleteness of the records (which is to be expected given the elusive nature of injury information).
  25. The Wise One
    One good start after one bad start. Maybe the scouting director got one right.
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