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The Wise One

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Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    Do the Twin's batters need to face an Ace to do well?
  2. The Wise One
    2010 pitching staff had ERA+ of 112, 109. 91. 91 and 75 and still won 94 games
  3. The Wise One
    There have been players to hit better in the majors than they did the minors. They were some of the better players to ever play the game. There is nothing that says Santana can't be one. If he can stay playing at a high level because that is what he is capable of, then anything is possible.
  4. The Wise One
    What is a small sample size. In articles I do not recall seeing margin of error statistics. If numbers for relief pitchers at the end of a season are valid as predictive I would think many starters would have pitched a large enough sample of batters faced to have valid predicive numbers. fip et al does not differentiate between starters and relievers.
  5. The Wise One
    Uh, ok. I guess I find more creativity in the fire Gardy/TK threads
  6. The Wise One
    I would be more worried about the lack of upside of most of the recent receipients of the award when the won the award. All of the pitchers worked hard to get to where they got. Indeed it may be that for most that one season may be the pinacle of their career.
  7. The Wise One
    Thinking the Twins will carry 6 relief pitchers is a glaring error. They cannot average 80 innings each in this age of 6 inning starters. 8 relievers is not bloated when you consider total innings
  8. The Wise One
    You can try to listen to Bonnes on KFAN in the morning. They say he is there. Haven't heard him speak, so I couldn't tell you.
  9. The Wise One
    Winning a lottery is a possibility just a very slight one. By phrasing it if it was a possibility that indicates a belief it will not happen. Save your money
  10. The Wise One
    Kuroda made 15 mill last year. If he accepted the offer it would be a cut in pay. Is there any club going to give up a draft pick for a short term gain? Only if they signed one or two others off the list. It puts Kuroda in a tough spot and most likely accepting the offer, thus a win for the Yankees. For many on this list it would be a way for the club to have the player for another year without painful negotiation.
  11. The Wise One
    Kershaw's pitches would appear to have much more movement than Wacha's which could lead to more balls being called. But umpires watch the catcher not the pitch.
  12. The Wise One
  13. The Wise One
    In Abreu's defense Small sample size Upside? Yippee, I won the lottery. It took a year for the teams to learn Cespedes's tendencies and how to attack the weak points. Abreu should be able to kill mistake pitches and thus continue to make a living.
  14. The Wise One
    Not to be nit picky but Burnett, Parker, Cobb and Achter, this just off the top of my head, were traded to their teams
  15. The Wise One
    Under Ryan the Twins draft toolsy outfielders. Not all of them work out, Joe Benson being the latest example. They probably have provided the most WAR. They draft defensive oriented middle infielders. They do not provide as much WAR. The infielders traded for fir the same mold. Pitchers tend to be towards the steady variety, lower ceiling when they work out. Lower WAR also. When they have drafted higher ceiling pitchers it hasn't worked out. Still questioning your methodology as I mentioned you have 116 player years for Boston position players yet since 1996 they have only produced Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkalis as star players. Pitching during that time was Buckholtz, Lester and Paplebon. Above in Oakland's success you are talking about Giambi who was drafted in 1992. There is still no pattern to Oakland's success. For every Suzuki there are many more Jeremy Brown's. In the days of compensation, Oakland ended up with more draft picks. If you looked at total WAR versus number of high draft picks a different picture would emerge.
  16. The Wise One
    With the amateur draft changing, that should make for an interesting change in the numbers for success in draft with the smaller market teams. Rules continually change. There is no more sign and follow which may have helped teams with lower round picks. There will be less of the additional picks because your player didn't sign. With less supplemental picks, the second round becomes more valuable to the poor teams. All of this changes the dynamic. When the agents figure out loopholes, the owners will react and change the process again. Historical note, sometime in the 60's many years there was more spent by teams on amateur talent than payroll. Just noting how things change.
  17. The Wise One
    Interesting historical data. You must have a little bit of file management experience. It still must have been a lot of work. Limitations on what you actually produced. You picked a time frame of heavy PED use. That would inflate numbers. Take Melky Cabrerrra. Low WAR, goes to KC and SF. big numbers and busted. Off the drugs, negative war in Toronto. Boston has a high cumulative war. Is it better drafting or is it retaining good players? Yankees rate high. Jeter's 73 works very well to add to that total as does Rivera's 43 For at least the first 15 years in drafting beyond talent there was a signability issue that would have an effect on drafting. Actually, much to their luck, that is how the Twins ended up with Mauer rather than Prior. (There is a what if thread, Mauer FSU quarterback) In drafting players I hate to say it is luck. Think Tim Hudson did better than most 6th round picks? If it was due to how Oakland identifies players then why did they draft Enochs in the first round that year? Actually, how did you get Boston's high number on position players? Ellsbury, Youkalis, and Pedroia were the only position players drafted by Boston that racked up big WAR numbers playing there.
  18. The Wise One
    A reincarnated Billy Martin couldn't get this team to win. The manager of this collection doesn't make much difference. When Hicks was sent down people were not blaming the manager he did not develop. When the pitchers throws poorly, it is on the pitchers and the people who signed them.
  19. The Wise One
    The interesting delema for the sellers is what to sell. You really can't sell of what you hope to build around unless you are wanting to start all over again. How many years have the Cubs wanted to get rid of the Soriano contract? Is Miami going to try to build around Stanton? How many of the older players do the White Sox get rid of? What can they bring in return. Isn't it about the same team that stayed near Detroit last year? Change of scenery do some of them good? The spare parts from most of the team will not help win a championship. Fading players are available. The buyer will hope the chase for a champion will elevate the older player's game.
  20. The Wise One
    When the teams that want to keep their kids from super 2 stautus start calling them up then the picture will be clearer.
  21. The Wise One
    I think I have your question down Meche, Guthrie, and Silva no way even before hindsight would have proved one right would I have signed one to a contract. Lackey was a free agent in 09 but like Santana and Beddard has missed time since 07. That would equate to a 1:4 chance of a deserving pitcher playing all of the way through a long contract You win a lot of money off people who gamble with a 25% chance of winning.
  22. The Wise One
    You would not get "criticized" if you worked on your writing before you put it out there. Run it by someone before you publish. Then you do not have to apoligize for putting out ill defined ideas.
  23. The Wise One
    It is as good as tool as the one Thyrlos designed for starting pitchers.
  24. The Wise One
    "Better than Gagne" using war. Accumulaed WAR? average WAR/year? Did better one time than than Gagne ever did? This article makes as little sense as what the guy who used to post on Yahoo wrote.
  25. The Wise One
    Great idea. One small difference of opinion. xPE. manipulating by a constant does nothing for the number for the reliabilty of the number. The luck factor over a season for all pitchers should be the same for all pitchers and thus should not be a factor to control for. Using babip at least factors for that pitcher what happens when they threw it. In determinging "Ace" status a factor that should be considered is the ability to get through the sixth. That is Cole Devries limiting factor as only 7 starts made it through 6 and only one through 7.
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