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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    SWR is good, IMO - just don’t know if he’ll hold up. With the recent IL decision on Paddack, we probably will get a feel for Festa and a bit more of Varland prior to A-star Break. Should be a window into how desperate they might be.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Pivetta pitches for the Red Sox - they are currently a game behind the Twins and are in line for the Playoffs - not happening. Fedde would cost a fair amount because of control in ‘25 and I doubt the Twins want to give the Sox a head-start on a re-build …..,.same situation with Detroit and Flaherty. she is only on a one year deal so they are a possibility - I think some Team in the market will give more than Twins would. I’m still in love with Montgomery from off-season. Could be easier dealing with AZ as they are in the N.L. and they might want to save the $$$ - a third of his $25M????
  3. JD-TWINS
    I get wanting to “get better”…..regardless of opponent recently the Team’s won somewhere around 11 of last 15 with 3 straight one run losses mixed in there. Hardly problematic. TWINS have scored 2nd most runs in A.L. since April 21st, trailing only the Yankees. Lewis just started playing 15 games ago. We’re OK. This is people’s reality - it’s not entertainment to them. Saying that you would “prefer to roll the dice” with a couple guys that are talented has some emotional merit - it makes zero sense for organization to get rid of a guy whose OPS is .830 over last 30 games - League average OPS is .706 as of yesterday on MLB network. Kirilloff is hurt….. he was hitting .202. Wallner is still striking out at a 33% rate. Rolling the dice with them just doesn’t add up to me. To me, when guys improve you continue to play them…….you don’t search for a trade partner. They were brought in at a sunk cost to do exactly what they’ve been doing for past 5 plus weeks……I do not see them going anywhere other than being DFA’d after July 31 due to lack of performance. There’s no getting ahead of the curve with these guys to get some future value in a trade.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I think Paddack starts this week…. and regardless of that success I then hope for a start from Festa on the 3rd (Detroit) & then a start from Varland on the 8th (White Sox), all while Paddack is on the 15 day IL for some arm issue. He’d get 15 days off and then another 4-5 after the break before he’d start again, at a minimum. Varland stays stretched out through August as SWR & Paddack are both pretty high risk at this point. After August 1, Festa and company are the back-up starters from AAA corp. …….,I eluded to a Jordan Montgomery trade in another post - that would be like hearing the Calvary coming!!! Varland & Stewart for last 6-7 weeks in the Pen would be nice……..Paddack in October as well. Lee is the call-up guy at some point in July. Who gets moved is the Q? I still think Martin would get optioned and Castro would go out on the grass……at least until after the deadline.
  5. JD-TWINS
    First, if they pitch nearly up to speed - neither of these clubs is incapable of catching the Mariners - not selling arms, either team! Relying on either of these plus 40 guys in “must perform” situations is good & BAD. Their talent and experience are huge but their propensity to breakdown is way too much in play!! The “move” is for the Twins to take out the D-Backs the next few days, softening their record & them on a potential trade of Montgomery at the Deadline or sooner. Their recent history (last year) getting to the Series with a blah record in regular season makes this a stretch but it could be a nice fit for player & Twins! …….will D-Backs consider selling????
  6. JD-TWINS
    I get your point, however, Julien sucked from April 28 on and he got another 6-7 weeks & rightfully so. Kirilloff sucked from April 24 (making up a date) on and he got 8 weeks & rightfully so. Wallner, IMO, wasn’t sent down to not come back by Mid-May, he was poor in St Paul (still K’s at too high a rate) and had a terrible Spring. I thought he may go down for 3-4 weeks to be able to get it together - am assuming that was the hope of the FO as well. HE needs to get better!!!! HE does.
  7. JD-TWINS
    There’s nobody (me) saying Manny Margot is “crucial”! Wallner, if he were regarded as a 126 OPS+ guy, would be on the club last week - next week. It comes down to probabilities and history. Wallner’s is volatile. Margot has hit .254 - .274 - .264 the past 3 MLB seasons and he’s trending back to those numbers over the last 30 plus games….81 OPS+ was 40…….830 OPS over last 30 games. That’s what he was signed for and it’s happening. ……He’s not Teoscar Hernandez and that’s why he makes 25% as much money. If Wallner gets his K% to 30% or a bit below …..should be doable and is more than a reasonable goal…..he should get a shot…….until then, I think the organization is going to press him for better results. My preseason hope/expectation for Wallner was .235 BA with a .335 OBP and near 30 HR playing 75% of the time……I could care less about Margot’s career but Team has to win games - not “develop” guys for future seasons while in a playoff race. I hope Wallner is the starting LF in the playoffs but he needs to prove he deserves it over a stretch of time…….2022 & 2023 were great but he was young and not facing guys in the Show until last 2-3 months.
  8. JD-TWINS
    In fairness, if Wallner were 29 he might have been released due to little value in the market. Seasons are long and things change - often. Whether a guy is an experienced playoff veteran or is in his 2nd year matters to people managing organizations. Wallner is still striking out at an alarming level, granted, while hitting HR’s. Margot - Farmer - Castro - Santana……all have been very productive over the last 30 plus games. Trading a vet at the deadline has to fill a real need for a team to bring value - it’s still a rental for two months. It’s a fringe player being acquired so, no, there isn’t a great value in trading one of these pieces. It doesn’t mean the player shouldn’t be kept to thrive as the role player he was signed to be.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Buxton - not very flashy so far this year, a nice game or two here or there. Hitting at League Average OPS to date (a low # in ‘24) and with around 40plus XBH pace, along with his defense he can be a 3plus WAR guy. Getting that done while hitting in the #7 hole the majority of the time is very nice value & lengthens the line-up. He’s on pace for 120 games which would be a nice total after years of very limited availability. Let’s hope he gets HOT 2-3 times and brings above average value in the 2nd half!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Why would a team move pieces that are performing at or above the level of expectation?……..only to bring up players you also “hope” to be able to do the job. They signed these guys to hit LH pitching and to bring a veteran presence……speaking of Farmer-Margot-Santana. I do not get the, let’s hope they keep hitting and elevate their stats so they can be traded for scraps, thinking?? Wallner - Kiersey - Kirilloff - Julien do zero for the team v. LH pitching if they are released from their log jam. They need to hit RH pitching before they go anywhere further from St Paul. Lee at 2B at some point makes sense to me with Castro strengthening LF……I get that……it seems to me he takes Martin’s spot in the short-term and maybe a veteran’s if they fail by late July?
  11. JD-TWINS
    He’s the emergency guy, came up as Catcher with Dodgers - I live in Cincinnati so am pretty familiar with him - good guy - needs a HOT streak!
  12. JD-TWINS
    Regarding Paddack & rest: Does he have any options? Do not think so. He could get a breather from this week’s start until after the All-star Break. He could go on IL with arm fatigue or some associated ill & Festa could throw at home against the Tigers on the 3rd and Varland could throw the 8th in Chicago………one option. Many ways to get him a break. Assuming a skipped start for SWR wouldn’t hurt either to get him closer to 10 days off through the Break.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine he’d get any other opportunities other than a possible minor league deal…..he’d be risking $900K - $1M. I really don’t want to see him in the roster again.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine he’d get any other opportunities other than a possible minor league deal…..he’d be risking $900K - $1M. I really don’t want to see him in the roster again.
  15. JD-TWINS
    MLB Network this morning backed up stats shown above here as they were praising Margot’s last 30 games - .830 OPS ……MLB average OPS is down this year to .706 at this point. Until he slumps across the board AND Kirilloff/Wallner/Lee/Julien push their way on to the 26-man ……Margot is the guy. If Lee or Julien are heated up enough offensively to play 2B they’ll move Castro to LF in a heartbeat. Somebody's gotta step-up to displace Martin - Farmer - Margot. All 3 of them are playing pretty well right now. Farmer has OPS+ of 88, 92, & 100 from ‘21-‘23 and his BA’s have been .263, .255, & .256 in those same 3 years. I still have confidence that he can get back to League average by Sept. 1st (.240) …….he’s only 33, can’t be toast yet.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Mike - my guy that hits a double was rhetorical - an example of my Q, why are random offensive events more important than specific defensive plays? I hear that it’s about RUNS & spread of score but if the pitcher doesn’t allow runs, he’s creating the capability for a “spread” in the score to occur. It seems to be an “event” stat. A pitcher can’t get 8 outs with one pitch but a hitter can hit a 3 run homer. Bottom line, for ME, it’s a shallow view of the game.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Why, with a 7-6 record & 51% of the season remaining……why is he not going to be able to have a decent season? His K to Walk ratio is 101-19. 10.3 K’s per 9……1.9 Walks per 9. His WHIP is only 1.178 - could get to under 1.100 over next 3 months plus. He’s on pace for approximately 180 innings. His ERA is up due to 3 really poor outings. He can get it back to around 4.00 - not great but better than the 4.50 mark used for Quality Starts. 15-11 with a 4.00 ERA & 200 K’s with a 1.100 WHIP would be a very nice season in the end - not at all Blue Sky thoughts.
  18. JD-TWINS
    I watched the last 8 innings……what does that have to do with questions about WPA? The author says Ober (pitcher) doesn’t get WPA credit because of all of the runs the offense scored. My question is, why do the offensive players get credit for the run spread but the pitcher gets zero credit for shutting the opponent out????? Why is some guy’s double mean more than a strikeout with a guy on base?
  19. JD-TWINS
    Not the “complete game” - the opponent didn’t score and that’s the most he, or any other pitcher can contribute to any win, regardless of the score.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Not here to be difficult but if what you say is true about WPA …….”why did the Team win?” How does Bailey Ober’s shutout on Saturday not merit a big piece of “why the Team won?”…….he didn’t let the opposition score - seems to be a big reason! I know it’s not your fault…….,but how does this make sense?
  21. JD-TWINS
    You in know the opponent and who is pitching for the Twins over at least the next week ……let’s see some of those known wins or known losses before the first pitch is thrown so we can all benefit. 7 of the 16 losses (they all count, understood) were prior to April 17. The Team was not hitting as a Team…..obviously, the opponents pitching plays into that. Team wasn’t hitting against anybody. My point is not to shy away from yours, it is to say they are much more of a complete offense at this point. Right now Paddack & Lopez appear to be the weakest links, and if that’s true the Team is in decent shape going forward. Kansas City - Boston - Washington - Seattle - Milwaukee are all playoff teams and Twins are 13-6 v. these clubs…..it’s not all bad.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Saw on MLB that Randy Johnson threw 82 pitches in a complete game (8 inning) loss v. Pittsburgh……..,Ober, obviously, threw 9 innings and kept it at 89.
  23. JD-TWINS
    1) It seems to me that Carlos Correa is the most deserving……….Santana is actually having a very good year as compared to A.L. first baseman……..Griffin Jax is All-Star caliber. 2) Lopez seems to have some real execution issues with his sweeper and his change-up. Fastballs get hit but these other two pitches being left in the middle of the zone too often are hurting him. WALKS are his real downfall - he doesn’t seem to be able to work through giving up a walk mentally - that’s scary. Honestly, he hasn’t been right in more than 35-40% of his starts………. without injury, it would seem that there nearly has to be a fair amount of improvement. 3) Buxton seems to have settled in with a routine relative to playing time and his role. He’s definitely the most talented #7 hitter in the game. I like him down in the order as it stretches our XBH potential through the line-up. I do think he’ll improve through balance of the year with his power numbers. He seems to be a guy that runs into a fastball occasionally - punishes curve balls in zone - OK on inner third of the plate - can’t hit sliders nor lay off sliders (his big hole forever). Gotta get to 15 HR’s through balance of the year……not first half ‘22 output. 4) Yankees? I think Team can manipulate the members of the Pen to make it a strength in October (Paddack - Varland - Stewart) & the strong Pen allows the starters to ratchet up their approach with a 5 inning max expectation. The line-up has nice length right now………should add a guy or two into the current player mix……..may be able to go with 14 guys & 12 arms for a couple series to help get to the Yankees. Arizona was in the Series last year - Twins can beat anyone in October if healthy! 5) No Mauer trip for me but it could be a bunch of fun! 6) I hope Jeffers can find himself over the next few weeks - need him making contact to right side again while popping a few HR’s for Team to have good success.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Good comments/overview - am on the more Wins & best case side of the ledger.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Maybe Lee will play 3B? Lewis can play LF. Castro & Julien at 2B …….lots of options…..Royce seems overwound to have in the infield to me but am sure that’s not popular. Don’t get the over 50% of throws being on hop or more? Anyway, I agree about the purpose of the minor league’s and development. But saying that and then stating that the veterans should get jettisoned so we can determine what to do for next year by playing youth immediately makes no sense to me. Santana - CC - Lewis - Jeffers - Vazquez are fixtures in the infield…….Castro - Farmer - Miranda are auxiliary pieces……Lee could/should be in this mix soon…..,Julien on outside looking in right now. Keppler - Buxton - Larnach - Martin - Margot are the OF pieces………I do not see any other “youth” breaking into this group for a month unless Keppler or someone else is injured.
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