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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    So do not have anything against Clemons but the asterisk is pretty big next to his double …… position player throwing 50/55 mph in mop up duty…….. he will be the first guy gone.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Not sure but I thought all 3 guys, before Ryan’s injury, were in a few Top 35’s last year relative to pitching stats? …… not sure what Lopez needs to do to cement a #2 status? Lopez has a decent WHIP of 1.11 - he’s 2-1 after 4 starts and has a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio - and the ERA is 2.08. …….. doesn’t seem to be a lot of slip in those numbers. We’ll see how he does on the road v. a team that knows him well this week in Cleveland…… Ryan - Ober - Lopez all under Team Control through ‘27 (limited somewhat, assuming arbitration payouts for Ryan & Ober) …….SWR through ‘28 ……. Festa through ‘28, maybe ‘29 ……. Matthews through ‘29 ……. Morris, etc. clock hasn’t started Paddack is the one guy Twins don’t control nor do they need/want to past ‘25. Festa isn’t bringing back, as I assume you would agree, “a haul”. IMO - Twins pitching is “playoff adequate” - they need offense NOW and not via some trades for prospects………Martin - Rodriguez - Lee are all the prospects “with potential” I can take at this point. I like trading pitching (not just the dregs) for a real bat at some point this summer……. young pitching control be damned. No idea who this mystery bat might be though 🙁
  3. JD-TWINS
    Not really sure what SWR needs to do to get some respect for what he’s done to date. He’s 24 and came into ‘24 as the #7 guy and worked his way on to the MLB Rotation with Varland’s failure and DeSclafani’s injury in April. After Paddack went down he was in the #4 slot for 25 starts. To me, if anyone might get displaced in the current ‘25 rotation by the talent push from AAA, Chris Paddack is the more obvious choice. He hasn’t shown he can be expected to last much more than 100 innings ……… I’d like to see him in the Pen ultimately in ‘25. I think SWR is a fixture in rotation for another 3-4 years barring trade.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Joe Ryan Experience! ………nice. Topa did a great job - really looked to be in control in and out with his pitch mix! 7 relievers got a day off……. 5 guys fresh headed to Cleveland on Monday. 2 v. Guardians this week would be nice but 3 would be huge!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Correa seems to have turned a corner Larnach seems to have turned a corner. Jeffers seems to be more consistent. Lewis - Wallner - Castro will be back over 2-3 weeks……… they displace Kiersey - Gasper - ?? Lee is pushing to stay with the club with his recent 5 game hitting streak. Bride has no options but is 4-9 as a Twin……he needs to get a bit of consideration. He hit .272 with 11HR in the Show last year…….consideration! Castro should get “plenty of time to heal”. At some point (maybe not til beginning of ‘26?) either Lewis or Keaschall have to play 1B regularly. If Bryce Harper can move to 1B to stay healthy & get more AB’s for his Club, one of those two (Lewis) can move to 1B as well!! Lee - CC - Keaschall - Lewis is a formidable infield offensively………..Jeffers - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner fill out the position spots. Bader - Castro - Vazquez - France - Julien
  6. JD-TWINS
    If the Team is .500 on July 31st they have a shot - not great, but a chance. There’s no reason to think that with Correa & Larnach starting to produce over past few games (even Lee)…….Wallner & Lewis returning over next 2-3 weeks…….. Keaschall back by All-Star break…….that the offense cannot be at least top 12-15 by end of July. Team has a good chance to be .500 June 15th without doing anything special at all. If they just have a few Series wins they can be at .500 by end of May - again, a pretty pedestrian path forward.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Gasper, “hot” and in the 5th spot as our DH today ……….coming off his 2-3 game Friday….big reach but not much of a choice! Today’s #2 hitter (CC) - #5 hitter (Gasper) - #8 hitter (Kiersey) ………..OPS+ of 51 …. 71 ….. -48 respectively. Let’s go Joe Ryan!!!!!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Last year’s failures were due to Ryan & Paddack not being available and thus forcing Festa & Matthews into action, neither prepared between the ears but the most talented of Team’s young group of options. The other hiccup was Varland proving (by late April) not to be valid as a starter. So, Team had a 23 year old that hadn’t thrown innings expected in the Show over season, forced into action - SWR, and Festa & Matthews. How does the Pen NOT get used regularly with these circumstances? The Manager would need to be David Copperfield to have it look any other way. The Team’s collapse the last 6 weeks of the season in ‘24 was 90% offensive output (lack of) related……a subjective % from my viewpoint.
  9. JD-TWINS
    I have a degree but took stats last in 1982 ……. not really sure what you are getting at with the parentheses, etc.? I can look at Baseball Reference and the number of appearances & innings for all the pitchers on the Staff are shown…….. there is nothing there regarding mode nor mean nor median…… simply appearances and innings. I see nothing in those numbers suggesting over use of the guys in the Pen………should the Guardian’s Manager be fired? Do the Guradians have some reliever superpowers? Again, the Pen innings are an average of use across all games. If they use less Pen innings when Ober/Ryan/Lopez pitch, I would think that would be logical. MLB average in ‘23 & ‘24 for all starter innings was 5.18 & 5.24 ……… Twin’s starters were more than these (slightly) average innings per start both years. Not sure why openers would be omitted? These starts certainly impact Pen innings greatly - maybe Twins don’t do it often & you’re leveling with Tampa specifically (for unknown reason?). Anyway, we obviously see this issue differently. Probably not going to change.
  10. JD-TWINS
    If the TWINS / ROCCO were on an island with Pen usage …. whether it be appearances or pitches or innings…… then I might be swayed. Twins use their starters and relievers as well or better than a big majority of successful teams. Checkout the Guardians Pen usage. Our staff is solid - talent amongst the Rotation guys but not necessarily a lot of guile via experience, at this point. Festa - SWR are “becoming every 5th day guys” ……. Lopez threw 5 innings with mediocre command in his first stint off the IL - no reason to push his innings. Our Pen, on paper, is supposed to be Top 5 or close, so not to use them as needed or as the Manager sees fit, seems like a poor approach to me. IMO, if offense was worth 2 cents and we had another 3-4 wins, nobody would be worried about Pen appearances. Paddack is not a 32 start guy (he’s not!) so they protect him - Festa is trying to become an every 5th day, 30 start guy - SWR is trying to build to 160 innings this year. All this is in the interest of keeping guys competitive over 162 games and trying to set team up to win as much as possible. There’s no Pennant Flag for being “Top 5 in starter innings” at end of September.
  11. JD-TWINS
    It’s April 26th. As you state, Team is at or higher than MLB average in starter innings in recent 2 seasons. The point that I assume everyone understands is that a reliever’s potential to be sharp or even just “serviceable” is a much higher % since his outing is going to be an assumed 8-25 pitches based on effectiveness that day. Max effort 2-3 innings per week breeds much more success. Other than Varland, nobody projects more than 67 innings over the season. I gotta disagree that innings for relievers are moot. If a guy throws 1 2/3 one day and another 2 innings 3 days later his potential to keep runs surrendered down is not as good as if he throws 1 inning 3 times over 7 days…….this is treating “relievers” all the same and not distinguishing long guys v. short ……. relievers that are tailored to face 3-5 guys per inning are going to have better outing to outing ERA success than guys that “pitch less often” and throw to 6-11 guys and get more outs per outing. Look at the Guardians PEN usage. They have a potential problem with games pitched and reliever innings - 7 guys with 60-75 appearances (5 guys at 72 innings plus and same # of potential appearances) ……. pretty different look than Rocco’s screwed up usage of his Pen.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Guy on base and multi time former MVP coming up and SWR was living by his 4 seamer on Saturday…… not the best match-up to get out of an inning unscathed. Stewart came in and threw 6 pitches. I just do not understand the issue with the bullpen use? Varland is on pace for 84 innings - that’s a bunch for many PEN guys but Varland has been a starter until now and is a horse……still, he is at top end usage with this approach. Duran is on pace to throw 67 innings & Jax is on pace to throw 66 innings. Sands - Alcala - Coulombe are on pace for 60-61 innings ……… Topa 55 innings. Starters typically throw more innings after first handful of starts. Where’s the abuse? Is the expectation for these guys to throw less innings than shown here? 26 weeks in the regular season …… 68 innings over the year is 2.62 innings per 7 day week………I’ve posted these same comments 4 times in last couple weeks…….I don’t get what I’m missing? Typical for a minimum of 3 PEN arms per game……..get used to it as it isn’t changing. 2024 - 5.24 innings per start across MLB….. Twins were at 5.26 innings per start. SWR was 5.33 innings in yesterday ……… pretty standard move going to Stewart.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Certainly if they need a guy - at this point, today, I don’t know who he’d replace…….if somebody goes south then sure thing.
  14. JD-TWINS
    He’s more valuable in St. Paul in case someone gets hurt at MLB level. If they bring him up now, who does he displace? Seems any body knocked off the 26 man gets DFA’d and scooped up by another club………can’t just “knee jerk add” without considering the roster moves and risks elsewhere.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Starters first game back from IL - struggling with command……..pick a real issue…….that’s my opinion. There’s not a reliever that projects over 81 innings at this point - Varland, former starter, has most potential innings. The other 4 most used relievers project to 62-64 innings over 162. It’s April 26th - starters throw deeper into games as season wears on - same every year. In late August the starters “will be in need of a break” - same every year. Varland has thrown 27 pitches over the last 5 days and 20 were last night………..what should his usage be? He’s the most used guy to date out of the Pen………….Average length for a start in MLB last 2 years is 5.18 innings and 5.24 innings……that’s over 6 months not 5 starts.
  16. JD-TWINS
    What are the options 30 days after Opening Day? Let’s here it Wizard. Wallner - Miranda - Martin - Rodriguez - Lewis - Keaschall - Eles - etc. ALL hurt…….. Team supposed to have a duplicate MLB roster at AAA? Reality sucks. There’s no alternatives other than to scramble!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Enter Friday night’s performance ……. got away with 1st pitch HR……didn’t look sharp. Got warmed through the inning & he seems to have good stuff 85-90% of his pitches. He does have a propensity to get hurt despite on a few of those mistakes - at a higher rate than most guys. Optimism - sure thing! Is he polished and ready to assume some major responsibility, haven’t seen that yet - just talent & competitiveness. On a good path in the PEN.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Absolutely agree. What does a “ten day minimum prior to release after claimed” do for “families and upheaval?” ………. every 16 games on a MLB roster is $76,000 for the player….., there should be “counseling” for these guys? The players union can do whatever the players body wants to do to support their members - the guys on the fringe - with funds and whatever relocation services they want to provide, etc. etc. ……they aren’t being treated like migrant workers! The players are getting an opportunity and at some point, if good enough. they will stick with a club. Free agents at the end of the season and can pursue a deal with whatever organization that is interested……they aren’t stuck in some feudal system. To your point, searching for a problem. The probable solution is to let Teams keep more guys w/o options via some loophole, and then some teams stockpiling fringe guys and signing them to more lucrative Minor League deals & then tipping the balance of talent/fairness.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Gotta think Wallner & Lewis are back by the end of next week - right? Who goes down? Kiersey obviously ……. Lee as well or does Bride get DFA’d? Correa to IL for wrist? 2 Catchers-Wallner-Bader-Buxton-Larnach-Castro CC - Lewis - Keaschall - France - Julien-(13th guy?)
  20. JD-TWINS
    He’s not “done” but I think he’ll get displaced today when Lopez comes back………might be nice to move Festa to a 2-3 inning guy from the PEN …….potentially wasting innings of good production in AAA……doubtful, but maybe worth a shot?
  21. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - Sands isn’t bad though…….2 guys on & no outs……..better to hold them to 2 instead of the 3, for sure. Bader is doing what he does against RH pitching. Really don’t get him not BUNTING 2 different times against RH pitching with no outs and guys on base……seems to be a strategic error!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Keaschall - at least 1 hit in all 5 games played in the Show along with 5 stolen bases. Making things happen!! Jeffers has had 2 really good offensive performances in past 3-4 games. Larnach 2 consecutive games with HR’s - that’s good to see. Very due! Julien keeps slowly improving in the box. Even Lee contributed. Buxton’s dinger gave some breathing room. Correa really looks rough ……. maybe when Lewis comes back he sits a couple games and Lee or Castro play short? Building some momentum to be ready for more competitive clubs coming soon.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Reds could make playoffs this year or next - 3 good starters & 6-7 decent everyday players. I get your point though. Pretty sure the Reds have as good a shot as the Twins in ‘25 - right? ……..Pittsburgh chooses not to spend and continually trade their future away…..hard to feel bad for that franchise. The Top of the stack of teams is where the problem lies……..Dodgers - Mets - Yankees are all spending at 2 plus the rate of Twins. This going unchecked into the future can create such an imbalance that young fans won’t ever be drawn to the game with competition as the core attraction.
  24. JD-TWINS
    He did - a handle flare on to the right field grass………….he’s now 3-21…… not exactly must see!! Couple decent plays at 3B Wednesday night through 4 innings. As of today, Keaschall - Julien - Castro - Lewis - Correa - France seems to be the infield of the future, in ‘25. Wallner - Larnach - Bader - Buxton - maybe Castro? Lee or Kiersey? ………gotta use Castro in OF and keep Lee up to back up Lewis.
  25. JD-TWINS
    IMO - Alcala needs to go down. I know everyone thinks it’s bad to move a starter out of a normal rotation spot ……… Alcala is all over the place with a 10+ ERA …..guys are hitting Festa at a .167 clip first time they see him…….seems like a good 2 inning plus reliever. I’d prefer to see Paddack in the Pen but that’s doubtful after his last 2 starts.
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