JD-TWINS

Maybe we take Gallo & the new kid, Salas & another prospect for another arm with control in July? At this point, if we stand pat, we need to check into trading Kepler/Gallo/Celestino & some of our excess IF talent at the dead-line. Hopefully, we don’t stop pursuing pitching!

C - Vazquez - .274 3B - Miranda - .261 LF - Gordon - .261 DH - Larnach - .238 2B - Polanco - .270 1B - Kirilof - .250? CF - Buxton - .244 RF - Gallo - .199 SS - Correa - .279 (Miss that .314 career avg of Arraez) I’d wager that if we hit .260 as a team, which seems very possible with Larnach & Kirilof getting at bats and performing over a few months, we are a top 40% of the league team in runs scored. Would have loved to trade 4 other guys and kept Arraez………one of 11 guys that hit .300 plus in ‘22. Career .314 BA! Assuming we have guys that will make Arraez departure not matter is naive. I do think we have solid potential coming!! Arraez hit .366 with RISP in ‘22 & that’s exceptional. 7.1% strikeout rate & that’s exceptional!!! Tough to directly replace.

Mahle was on IL in early July of ‘22 in Cincinnati. I live in Cincinnati ……..really wanted Twins to focus on Luis Castillo!!!!! He is worth whatever we needed to add - exactly what everyone has been saying we need ALL off-season. Did anyone catch him down the stretch or in playoffs? ACE! That said, Mahle is OK……probably similar to López, as long as he isn’t throwing too many pitches trying to strike out everybody he faces! IF he gets healthy, & others can get out to the mound, it should be a nice 2023. Mahle - López - Ober - Gray - Ryan 150 - 180 - 120 - 140 - 170 Hopeful starter innings pitched……52% of baseline year. Winder - 75 innings as starter …….Varland - 65 innings as starter ……..SWR - 60 innings as starter………..this gets us to 65% of total innings. PEN: Maeda - Jax - Megill - Duran - Moran - Thielbar - Alcala - FA ……. (Fulmer or Chafin) OR J. Lopez Winder - Varland - SWR with options in the Wings. Hopefully, we continue to pursue pitching through Spring Training! Gotta move Pagan - Celestino - Kepler & probably a guy like Martin or other IF prospect (not Lee nor Lewis). Gotta get a starter or an excellent reliever for this group!

Agreed - if we take the risk of trading Arraez for pitching, & the guy that fills in hits anything above .280 it’s a win for us! My concern is the guy hits .255 & little pop & we’re saying he needs a couple more years to develop. Am optimistic but Lewis - 12 games - is 3 bad games from hitting only .265 in 2022. He looked good - promising! Very small look before injury. Not drafted #1 because he wasn’t any good. SECOND ACL injury on same knee in 2 years……he may be OK but it may not work out. We have more than one option now with guys that are coming so the odds are we will fill the Arraez hole by July, because it may take trying a few different guys.

Also, realize the NEED for making trades & potential trading for pitching is slim at this time of year. However, it seems to me and most everyone that signing Joey Gallo & keeping Max Kepler (with Gordon - Larnach - Walner as our real OF options other than Buxton) doesn’t make any sense. Doesn’t make any more sense now than it did a month ago. Trading Kepler for anyone other than pitcher seems not very likely. Am assuming the Marlins are set with their pitching situation? They do have approximately the 2nd best pitching prospect in MLB ready to go at some point (early) this year. They do still need offense. They are moving their 2nd baseman to CF to make room for Arraez at 2B. Maybe they want to protect Luis as well………pretty sure they’ve heard about his lower than average D at 2nd and his questionable knees!!! Again, we send Celestino for CF depth and a controllable guy for Miami. We send Kepler (starter in OF & upside w/o “the shift”) as well. From there it’s what Miami may be interested in………they just sent a high end IF prospect to us so Martin, with IF & OF capabilities may be of most interest……… maybe an arm to help protect there pitching depth? Celestino - Kepler - Martin - 1 of Sands - Pagan - J. Lopez for Luzardo I know this is not at all likely but if there’s an upside starter out there, 4 guys to get him is not too much!!!

So I have to jump in one if these ……..”bird in hand”…….….vs. all the Rosie prospects we have coming. 11 guys in the game hit .300 or better last year. Arraez has a .314 BA over 4 seasons. He struck out 7.1% of the time and had a .366 BA with RISP. Saying he wasn’t our best hitter in 2022 is nuts!! I like Lee - Lewis - etc coming from Farm/St Paul - but assuming they are going to out produce one of the 11 guys in the game that hit .300 or better last year because we are optimistic, is naive. EVERY organization has prospects they expect will succeed. Buxton & Correa are both really good players with more physical talent relative to power. If there’s someone on base, .366 BA with RISP is undeniable. If he batted 3rd or 5th his opportunities to drive in runs and to drive the ball would be much greater and his value in run production would be viewed differently! He bats lead-off and puts “the ball in play” and tries to get on base - that was his job. If he bats 3rd he may hit .295 but he’d have 85 RBI and he’d hit 12 HR with 40 doubles. Struck out 7.1% of the time……. I HOPE someday Alex Kirilof has 85RBI and 12 HR and hits .295!!!! 🤞🤞 We need pitching, I get that & support that. With the values shown above in article I’d propose Jeffers - Celestino - Kepler ……(Marlins need CF & left handed bats) & Pagan or J. Lopez for their left hander, Luzardo!! To me, he’s the guy to get. No crystal ball, just seems to have better stuff & much longer team control. ………..I’d throw in the versatile Austin Martin instead of Jeffers if that would make it happen!!! Bummed but will move on🙁🙁

Farmer will play all the time at 3rd vs. lefty starters……..Miranda at 1st. …………he’ll also spell Miranda for rest. He’s at 3rd 50 games this season. IF: Kirilof - Miranda - CC - Polanco - Farmer………they gotta think one of the other young guys is ready after spring training…….Lee - Martin - somebody? OF: Gordon - Larnach - Buxton - Gallo - Garlick DH: Larnach - Buxton - Kirilof - Garlick Need another bench guy if Kepler is gone - seems to me a young IF fits……….we don’t know about Kirilof’s health at this point either! If healthy, Lewis displaces Garlick at some point. Kepler - Pagan - Celestino - ???? from Farm in another trade. Just can’t imagine justifying keeping Kepler after Gallo trade!!

There’s a mention of a Six Man rotation but I only see the 5 guys everyone thinks will start…..,,at any rate I suggest the following edits. Acquire a starter………move Maeda to Pen & rid ourselves of Pagan, hopefully via trade. PLEASE sign Fulmer from FA market. Option Alcala to St. Paul. More stable Pen with experience! Ability to bridge from middle of 5th with 5-8 outs with Maeda!! Infield is cool with the 6 you’ve penciled in - Garlick displaces Celestino & Kepler is traded opening a spot for Larnach. Catchers are good. New guy - Gray - Mahle - Ryan - Ober Duran - Maeda - Jax - Megill - Fulmer - Moran - Thielbar - López Garlick - Gordon - Buxton - Gallo - Larnach Farmer - CC - Miranda - Polanco - Kiriloff - Arraez

I was of the thinking that they moved him from SS to 2B because of ankle issues - to protect his body. I missed the suspension down here in Cincinnati. I guess it was PED’s? I checked and other than a couple normal injuries for an infielder he was healthy up until last summer. Ankle - back - knee over 2 months in 2022 & then I assume they shut him down due to dropping from the race in late August. If he’s healthy, a switch hitting 2B that can drive in 85 runs & hit .270, year in & year out, has great value.

IMO you can’t average starts/yr. with Covid shortened 2020 in the mix. Am assuming you have the wrong López. Pablo pitches for Marlins - would be a Twin after a trade. …….We have a López now that’s a reliever. This starts per season chart just exemplifies why we (Rocco) takes pitchers out routinely in the 5th inning!!

Gordon was battling an intestinal issue for years - gained 25lb over 1st 6 months of ‘22. Had 28 doubles & 9 HR in 405 AB’s in ‘22. New found strength & endurance continues to grow going forward with his health improvements. He’s a 15 HR - 40 double guy with 575AB’s. Same OF versatility as Gallo. Only played OF one year professionally. Gallo is a career .199 hitter. Not really that concerned in what he did in his career year of ‘21. He’s potentially 2 months into the season from being DFA’d. He’s got a bunch of talent around him (gotta perform) and if he succeeds, great!! Just don’t see Nick Gordon being the odd man out. Kepler has got to be traded. Makes sense for return talent in trade. Makes baseball sense based on Larnach - Walner - Kirilof - Gordon - Gallo (all LH hitting OF) being the other 5 of 6 outfielders in the organization. Makes $ sense to rid organization of his salary.

.837 OPS career vs. lefties - seems straight forward - in the line-up somewhere every time we face a lefty!!

That’s an entire starting outfield!!! Pagan is worth a little bit but I have no problem having him be involved in the trade. If this is for Pablo López, not sure who, it’s too much. Kepler - Pagan - Larnach should be enough for a #3 starter……..didn’t finish 2022 real well either. Maybe sub .500 W-L for career. I get he pitches for Marlins……still gotta get guys out efficiently or not a lot of worth to TWINS. Repeating - repeating - LUZARDO from Marlins. Check out stats vs. P. Lopez.

BIRD IN HAND is real!! Arraez is here through ‘25. The assumption that our prospects are going to step in, or should step in because of “athletic promise” or what they did in high A Ball, and hit .315 in the Show, is absolutely ridiculous. Arraez is a .314 career guy over 4 seasons……..11 guys in the game hit .300 or better in ‘22. Should we assume our prospects are one of the top 10 average hitters in the league? Kirilof is the guy people point to as the heir apparent at 1B if Arraez gets traded……,he’s coming off career saving wrist surgery. He’s never played regularly not due to lack of opportunity but due to injury. He can’t be relied on until we see his results through July/August.

I’ve been touting the Kepler - Martin - Pagan or López trade for the Marlin’s Luzardo…….longer runway & better stuff than López. Only last year (100.3 innings) was successful …. 3.32 ERA……11K/9 innings……..1.03 WHIP.

Lee & Lewis seem to me to be the everyday prospects closest to MLB solid contributors. Still waiting for Larnach & Kirilof to actually contribute…….with Arraez at 25 & Miranda at 24, we have a lot of young guys (3-4 more at AA or AAA) that can contribute big things along with Vázquez - Polanco - CC - Buxton (veteran group) & there’s only 9 spots in the line-up. We need to consider moving some youth from Farm System that is now expendable with the Correa signing and get a front line pitcher. To me, Martin’s versatility in IF & OF & his outstanding ‘22 Fall Ball offense pushes him to front of prospect trade line. Top end marketability!!! I don’t know what trade partners want nor am I any kind of expert on our Minor League talent but I do know Marlins need left handed bats. Suggestion below that may make sense for Marlins? Open to other guys coming up based on what pop trade partner’s wants. Kepler - López or Pagan - Martin (not Lee nor Lewis) or whoever to Marlins For Luzardo PLEASE!!

You are certainly right about our general balance through the line-up. The concern stems from, in my opinion, that Gallo is a .199 career hitter and we probably want to sit him against LH pitching so we have some viable chance at success. Polanco hits both ways - Arraez - CC - Miranda - Vázquez - Buxton are all guys that are expected to hit against guys throwing from either side. The younger guys - platoon guys that have poor success from same side pitchers are guys we are trying to protect. Exactly why Garlick & Farmer may play OF/DH when Lefties are throwing against us. Same with Gordon & Larnach & Kirilof & Arraez & Gallo may all be in the line-up vs. Righties.

Career numbers…… seems like a reasonably balanced offense: C - Vázquez .274 BA DH - Larnach .239 BA 1B - Arraez .314 BA 2B - Polanco .270 BA SS - Correa .279 BA 3B - Miranda .261 BA LF - Gordon .261 BA CF - Buxton .244 BA RF - Gallo .199 BA 3 guys with averages less than .260 & all 3 have quite a bit of Pop or at least the expectation that they will hit for Power Kirilof - Farmer - Garlick - Jeffers are reasonable bench guys………lots of DH at bats for Buxton - Kirilof - Larnach - Arraez - Garlick

OF: Gordon - Buxton - Gallo (Larnach - Farmer) IF: Miranda - CC - Polanco - Arraez (Kirilof - Farmer) DH: Garlick - against lefties DH: Larnach - Kirilof - Arraez against righties C: Vázquez - Jeffers Assuming health…………..Best 13 as of now……..Lewis in late summer may take Garlick’s spot due to IF - OF - DH flexibility.

I agree that Buxton - Gallo - Gordon - Larnach are in the OF for sure. Kepler has to be traded. If we could, I’d keep him and lose Gallo but that’s not happening. Due to last year’s performance & the expectation for slight betterment each year, Gordon starts in LF & plays 45 plus games in CF. Larnach plays a bunch of LF & some RF along with a bunch of DH at bats. Bad news, IMO, is that Kepler at $8-9.5 million is not what Marlins are looking for, at least not as just one piece. They (Marlins) need left handed bats!! Kepler, along with another guy or two with control and league minimum contracts would be more realistic. Luzardo from Marlins For Martin (IF & OF potential) - Kepler - Pagan or López

Kepler has to go, somehow. After Gallo signing this seems obvious. Gordon hit .272 had 28 doubles & 9 HR in 405 AB’s. He gained 25lb from January to June. With his speed & tendency to pull the ball he has should make some hay with the SHIFT elimination as well. With 575 AB’s he is a 40 double guy with 15 HR - durable - good speed - 80 games in LF & 45 games in CF. He played 65 games in LF & 33 games in CF in ‘22. The only reason he didn’t play more outfield was because we had nobody else effective at 2B after Polanco shutdown for last 55 games of the year. We were forced to watch an overmatched Celestino and equally overmatched Jake Cave the last 2 months. With a former starting SS as our new infield utility guy Gordon is officially an outfielder. Comparing him with Celestino is a real stretch! With the lack of actual signings of a RH corner outfielder …….& we pursued 3-4 different guys…….this seems to make it obvious Celestino isn’t the answer for the Twins FO in ‘23!! OF: Gordon - Buxton - Gallo (Larnach - Kirilof) IF: Miranda - CC - Polanco - Arraez (Farmer) C: Vázquez - Jeffers DH &/or RH hitting outfielder. ????? I’ve heard on MLB Network that FO has some inclination that Farmer may be able to spell Gallo vs. LH pitching in RF. Maybe LF for Farmer with Larnach in RF? Not sure about this as a reality i’m but it would be handy. Farmer’s bat is as good as any of the guys we looked at in FA…..OF defense? We contended all spring & summer of ‘22 with Gordon playing OF most of the time.

Polanco is the guy with bad legs……77 games in 2018 after a full season in 2017. 104 games in 2022. Ankle & knee problems. Arraez started 129 last year & played in 144 games.

Unfortunately, Gallo hit .169 last year to drag his career BA to .199. Unbelievable, I know. Arraez hit .366 with RISP in ‘22. If he bats down in the lineup a couple spots he protects the guy in front of him and has 85 RBI.

Polanco: 29 yrs old in ‘23 only 77 games in 2018 after most of a full season in 2017. 104 games in 2022 - 16 HR - 56 RBI solid defense at 2B 56 RBI batting 3rd - 4th - 5th predominantly .235 BA in ‘22 - career is .270ish ………………… Arraez: 26 yrs old in ‘23 129 starts - 144 games in 2022 - 8 HR - 49 RBI solid defense at 1B 49 RBI batting lead-off predominantly .316 BA in ‘22 - career is .314 ……………………. IMO…..Arraez, if batting in the spots Polanco was in would have significantly more RBI. .366 RISP in ‘22. Polanco has more power but Arraez has an advantage with contact capability and BA. IMO….we have an unproven, oft injured Alex Kiriloff as our next in line at 1B………we have 4-5 guys in system that could play 2B since the signing of CC. Polanco had an impressive 2021……I would not trade either of these guys. Polanco seemed he was banged up more than his normal in ‘22. Gotta see where he’s at with his health & bat in ‘23. Can’t trade Arraez!!!

Luis Arraez 2022 - .366 BA with RISP, 48 RBI with 80% of his games batting out of lead-off spot. LAST GUY the opposing teams wants to see coming to bat with guys on base. Not CC - Not Buxton. If he bats 3rd or 5th he’s trying to “drive in runs” vs. “get on base” out of lead-off spot. Had 9 HR in ‘22 & can elevate that to 12 with just more experience and hitting in a different spot in line-up. If he hits .325 with RISP down in the line-up he has 85 RBI! .366 BA with RISP is not someone that should be discussed in trade talks.