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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Why? ……… No kidding!! Named Red’s MVP in ‘23 as a Rookie (after McClean got hurt) & has hit 20 HR for 3 straight years and played very well at 1B …….. played some 3B & quite a bit of LF until ‘25. Wishful thinking by fans here just because they know his name, IMO…… I’d love it! Could be done, as their best hitting prospect plays 1B, principally. Reds would want a serious player(arm) …….. Chase Petty seems to have flamed out so they would be very particular. Speer has averaged 21 HR & 85 RBI for 3 years as an MLB player with a .245 BA ……… “infielder hands” on ground balls with great instincts at 1B. Solid player.
  2. JD-TWINS
    OF/DH: Buxton - Wallner - Martin - Larnach - Gonzalez IF: Lewis - Lee - Keiner/Felefa($3M) “type” - Keaschall - Arraez($14M) - Clemens (I live in Cinti, and Steer would be a welcome addition via trade at 1B……instead of Arraez) C: Jeffers - Jackson Starters: SWR - Ryan - Lopez - Bradley - Ober Matthews/Festa - Raya - Prielipp - Thielbar or Coulombe($3.25M) - Funderburk - Adams Sands - Topa … Jansen or D. Williams or similar($7.5M) $95M baseline currently plus $14 - $3 - $3.25 - $7.5M ………$123M total payroll. Can’t imagine NEW investors would not have had the Pohlad’s being OK with this level of spending prior to a $425M infusion. As many have pointed out, it’s all guess work on the spend. Outman (traded oft injured reliever for him) & Roden (Rojas was the primary piece) were flyer additions, IMO. No need to worry about rostering either of them.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Seems right at this point for OF ……….Martin/Larnach - Buxton/Outman - Wallner/Gonzalez(?) …… Roden at AAA (potential, but a throw-in with Rojas!)…… Rodriguez & Jenkins on the come with good work & health through May, in St Paul. Clemens is (#13 guy on roster) to play OF if others were PH for and they come back with RH reliever late. He CAN play 2B if absolutely necessary. He’ll get some PH opportunities and, obviously, he’ll get some play at 1B. Cannot be the everyday guy at 1B on a competitive Team. Gonzalez could make the Team with a nice Spring Training. Gasper - Julien - Kriedler - Fitzgerald seem to all be set for DFA……..Fitzgerald may become back-up SS?
  4. JD-TWINS
    Not personal here, but I don’t understand why many at TD point to Career stats or one year removed stats if it’s someone they like and those stats show a positive BUT if the advantage (or the negative) is looking at only the previous year for the argument, then that’s gospel on the Player. Larnach: Spotty play due to nuisance injuries and mixed (streaky) production prior to ‘24. 2024 - 116 OPS+ with 15 HRs in 400PA’s. Platooned against predominantly RH pitching. He had a .771 OPS 2025 - 99 OPS+ with 17 HR’s in 567 PA’s. Difference for ‘25 is 118 AB’s v. LH pitching. Larnach still had a .727 OPS Continue to just Platoon him! 100 OPS+ is average for MLB hitter OPS in MLB for ‘24 was .711, for ‘25 was .719 I get he doesn’t bring speed & real good defense ……… Team has other OF’s. Not too many hitters. $4M is hardly a prohibitive salary.
  5. JD-TWINS
    I agree, in general. I think the sentiment that’s trying to be made by many, is that almost everyone here at TD forum wish the Bar was much higher than this for a Catcher move for ‘26. Is he better than Pereda? I know this sounds nuts but I’d like to see Pereda or some other acquisition for roster at Catcher. This allows Jeffers to play 1B maybe 100 games and catch maybe 20 games to stay viable behind the plate. PH/DH another 25 games.
  6. JD-TWINS
    They kept LH hitting Clemens - Julien - Gasper - Roden - Outman ahead of him. This should say something! These are baseball people making these decisions - they aren’t oblivious to the concept of development and proper opportunity. Obviously, I too wish him well but am glad that the organization is slowly making needed changes.
  7. JD-TWINS
    I didn’t neglect defense - I said he got Zero WAR from defense (WAR was probably a negative adjustment as DH)………. we all know he’s not fast nor a great defender …….. any DH type - occasional OF, used against RH pitching in a platoon, that made $2M with a .771 OPS, is a win! If he wasn’t used in 118 AB’s v. LH pitching, due to weak roster in ‘25, his OPS would have been .750 plus again, easily. My point is Team doesn’t have many average or better hitters, so until some are ready and producing they don’t need to jettison Larnach at $4M. My other thought is you negated that he can hit just fine v. RH pitching. Platoons are used across MLB and wish thinking more AB’s and opportunities will somehow balance a guy’s production just doesn’t work. In the vast majority of cases, particularly with Left on left, the hitter remains at a disadvantage through their careers. Oliva’s career numbers are .690 v. lefties and .890 v. righties…….as an example.
  8. JD-TWINS
    He’s career .759 OPS v. Right handed pitching. His BEST year was 2024 and his slash line was .259/.338/.434/.771 with a 116 OPS+ ……. Average OPS for MLB was .711 in 2024 (Larnach was 60 points higher) 2024 …… 1.3 WAR with only 400 PA’s …..no defensive contribution in this WAR total They let him get 20+% of his PA’s in 2025 (118 trips) v. LH pitching ………poor move! His OPS dropped to .727 Average OPS for MLB was .719 in 2025 Not sure where the stats you refer to come from?????
  9. JD-TWINS
    Absolutely no reason not to be ambiguous - for sure! Still hoping for an intact rotation - youthful bullpen mostly stocked from within - as well as FA guys at 1B & C. To me, a group with this general approach makes Team competitive in the Division Race!
  10. JD-TWINS
    My repeated comments here about run production is that Arraez is slow and has been hitting at the Top of line-ups, typically, for 5 years. If TWINS put him in 5 hole and he strikes out only 25 times. while hitting .300 and collecting 185 hits, we’d score a bunch more runs than with a guy like Wallner, etc. not putting the ball in play because he strikes out or walks nearly 45% of his AB’s & hits .210. His RBI total v. his number of home runs has to be some MLB record for an All-time low. In the 5 spot every day Arraez has 85-90 RBI for the Twins IMO, even with 7 home runs on the year. If we need to spend $3-4M more for one of our 3-4 potential FA’s this off-season, he’s the guy.
  11. JD-TWINS
    He’s a free agent in days for a reason - he’s declined. 2025: 18 HR & .307 OBP for Lowe in 540 AB’s. Clemens is not my choice for 1B solution. 2025: 19 HR & .284 OBP for Kody in 342 AB’s. Not profoundly different enough for me to spend $$ on Lowe. He DID have an uptick in 100 AB’s in Boston last year. I prefer consistent offensive production for more $$ (me and most others) and therefore, I think Arraez is the best signing & for 3 years at $42-$45M……….sign him and a Catcher & the rest can be pieced together for Division run, assuming we don’t trade starters.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Romano appears to be washed …… at $2.2M or lower, probably worth a shot. Rogers isn’t significantly better than , to me………. again, at some lower end number of $3.0M or lower, worth a shot. Stanek has enough experience and at 98.5 MPH, he seems to just need a better scheme…..at $2.6M or less, probably a good risk. To start: I make Coulombe & Thielbar offers for a total of $7.5M in some split. These two, paired with Funderburk - Adams - Topa - Sands gets Team to a repaired PEN ……. I’d pluck Matthews and maybe Morris or Festa (2 of 3) to fill out the PEN. To me Matthews is the back end guy. ……. I like the psychology and habits that LaTroy Hawkins will bring to the group!
  13. JD-TWINS
    Good thought - can’t see a trade between Twins and Division rival to help MN chances. Could use the 28-30 HRs!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Why would any Team “….blow away….” the Twins with an offer for Jeffers? He’s not much at all above average as a hitter and he’s below average as a defensive Catcher. Not saying it’s impossible that he gets traded but it would be for him and another player (pitcher) and am assuming Twins would need to initiate. Can’t imagine Jeffers nets more than some prospect(s) at a lower level. My hope would be to have him be the guy they are looking for at 1B, primarily. He could Catch 3-4 times per month to keep others fresh and to stay sharp behind the plate himself. He could DH some as well. Caratini could be in a similar role between Catcher, 1B, and DH occasionally as needed. He could Catch 70 games and play 1B maybe 40 games? That leaves 60 games for Pereda behind the plate. Caratini at 1B for 35/40 games - Jeffers at 1B 85-90 games - 30-40 games for whatever young guy they want to try there over last 3/4 months of season. Caratini for 2 years and $11M total would/could be a short term solution at 1B & Catcher?
  15. JD-TWINS
    Pretty sure Lee does have the entire season. He can’t/won’t play more than 135 games, IF he stays 100% healthy. Somebody else needs to be viable or your not fielding “a Team”.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Miller: If the guy can’t hit, please don’t pursue him. If he’s not protected, he can’t hit. I do not see any reason to be worried about the age of a placeholder, back-up SS. A transition from Fitzgerald to Culpepper in mid-summer seems to make perfect sense. Defense may not be great but until some young guy (Culpepper) is “ready”, Lee & an available guy they currently know seems to be the answer.
  17. JD-TWINS
    There was much less College time involved historically in a player’s path to big leagues …….. I don’t think guys are necessarily “young” but they are only in Minors for 1 1/2 - 2 1/2 years (fast) and that wasn’t the norm until relatively recently. ….., guys across the board are getting less Professional ball development. Puckett & Mauer are HOF guys and Morneau & Hrbek were pretty special - Knoblauch was ROY. Tony Oliva was ROY at age 25. We can find stats to support an opposing point of view for anything. I can’t think of any teams in baseball that don’t platoon at least 1/3 - 1/2 of their line-up every day……I’m sure there might some line-ups with elite talent that don’t, but none come to mind.
  18. JD-TWINS
    I agree on the article being a real positive take and somewhat eye opening regarding Shelton. “College clutch” and MLB consistent is often world’s apart. I know that Larnach platooned much more rigidly prior to ‘25 …….. those nearly 120 AB’s (that everyone already knew he’s struggled with) from the left side in ‘25 really skew his numbers. Obviously, they are real. If they get reduced to 35AB’s or so, out of necessity, he has a decent year. He’s career .765 OPS v. RH pitching……he was .771 overall OPS in ‘24. He had 17 HR’s (against both sides) in only 385 AB’s v. RH pitching …….. if they can get his AB’s focussed on guys throwing from right side, then he’s a solid bat in the line-up. ………..spend the $$ on him and if Rodriguez &/or Jenkins come around, then trade him in July. To me, he’s a major league bat that’s above average. ………. what if Brooks Lee had Larnach’s stats from the left side? With Martin apparently able to perform at a reasonable to good level, those LHP at bats for Larnach can be minimized (hoping Gonzalez can help there soon as well) and he’s then a solid contributor. There are platoon hitters with specific roles all over baseball and using Larnach this way doesn’t mean he’s some inferior guy on the roster or in the box!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Lee, is my “most frustrating to watch” batter the Team has. He looks like he’s playing Pepper about 25% of the time……just reaching and tapping the ball somewhere. He, to me, has 20HR power ……. very encouraging! He just doesn’t seem strong enough to me. He seems tired, physically, and it appears to affect his ability to hit the ball sharply. Mental fatigue is certainly understood…….his back may not be 100% every day ……. I get that it’s complex. It’s hard for everyone and he needs more time, to be fair. He drives me crazy in about 50% of his AB’s though & I just want him to show some consistency……..he goes into BIG depths for days and days too often! I know, he needs more opportunity. Hoping Shelton and his team of coaches can get more out of Brooks……he’s saying the right things here, however obvious his comments may sound.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Obviously, high character is always sought after!! I do not think, if money is an issue, that the organization wouldn’t get flooded with interest in Lopez if he was dangled in the market, pretty hard to argue they would not ……. not an easy thing to do & maintain relationship. ………”we are willing to discuss any potential offers, blah blah, blah” is a possibility. Ryan was hurt at the end of the year for 3 straight seasons prior to ‘25. Other organizations pay attention and know all the details on injury risks with any potential acquisition. In ‘25, his last 10 starts after the deadline, he threw 49.2 innings ……..15 walks & 50 hits for a 1.32 WHIP. Maybe he was distracted/disinterested after the trades were made? He had 6 good outings and 4 poor outings. …….. I get he was an All-star and he’s a great $$ value in near term! Based on his history, he’s at a career high trade value. If he has his typical good first half, to me, his trade value is maximized at the deadline in ‘26. Again, I don’t want either to be traded. The thought of trading either of them “for prospects” makes me sick to my stomach. If $$ aren’t driving the move, the ability to remain competitive over next 2 years is higher with Ryan remaining with the Club v. any trade acquisition. Does new ownership % (invested $$) deem it’s necessary to be competitive? To me, that’s the question.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I was with you until Canterino came up……..he needs to throw 40-50 innings in St Paul before he gets ANY consideration in the Show. He may not achieve 50 more innings, with reasonable success, until sometime in ‘28. He is a bigger stretch than re-signing Chris Paddack for $4.5M for a middle reliever role.
  22. JD-TWINS
    So, do they keep Lopez just because he’s a high character guy? Both of them are under Team Control for 2 more years……why keep the $22M (x2) guy and trade the maybe $20M to Ryan over next 2 seasons? Pay Ryan a few million in ‘26 & then trade him …… trade Lopez over the Winter……this seems to be the frugal path. Can see how things go and jettison one or both at deadline in ‘26 ….. if things fall apart. I’d like to keep them both and try to reap the benefits, to be clear. If money is a big issue, I do not get why most here think Ryan, for some offensive help in a trade, makes more sense than Lopez? I wonder what you - most - think the budget will be for salaries in ‘26? I still cannot get past the fact that “a group” spent $400M plus for 20+% of the Team, and somehow they do not care if the product on the field is competitive, immediately. $125-$135M gets them to a Division Contender with current roster. Could trade young arm(s) for a bat but FA is more probable.
  23. JD-TWINS
    I agree with the others here. Festa should be a AAA depth guy if not 100% healthy OR better option for Team is to use him in 7th/8th innings, 4 innings per week to help solidify the PEN & minimize his innings & keep him producing on the mound. Lopez - SWR - Ober - Ryan are a solid core ……my assumption is Bradley gets the other spot to start the season. Abel’s pedigree tells me he’s the Top depth guy in St Paul. This leaves Matthews to be moved to back end of bullpen as the anchor…………I am open to trading young arms for a bat that steps in at 1B or Catcher. Trading Lopez or Ryan “……..to restock the system…..” is not at all what’s needed. The Twins currently have the #2 rated farm system. The role of the Farm System is to develop players to help the Parent Club win ball games - that’s the goal. Team isn’t trying to get a gold star for having the best collection of “prospects.” The rotation talent is in place! The C - 2B - 3B - CF & Corner OF spots are generally solid. Need to convert a couple guys into the Pen & sign 2-3 relievers. Need at least ONE FA bat (or via trade of pitching youth) that can positively contribute, not a prospect!
  24. JD-TWINS
    ??? Nobody acquires experienced bullpen arms at the Deadline nor MLB “ready” arms IF they are selling 5 bullpen arms. Thielbar had a nice ‘25. Coulombe had a nice ’25. Stewart is always hurt & hence traded. Stewart on a “Tonkin deal” at $1.1M along with both old lefties………all 3 for $9M? They have a couple young arms that may shift to late inning PEN guys ……… Matthews seems to have upside in that role…….a handful of other “possibilities”. Seems to me Team already knows a couple of lefties - either one of them & maybe one of the right handers shown in the article seems to fill out a competent PEN? Nobody has a crystal ball on who “will work”. That includes nearly every FO in the game. I do think they can lean on LaTroy Hawkins for experience and primarily mental help and day to day regimen thoughts.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Wouldn’t it be wonderful to find out he can play 1B or is at least working on a transition? 🤞🤞🤞…….to me, Jenkins - Rodriguez - Outman - Roden - Martin - Wallner - Larnach have the Corner OF spots covered!
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