PatPfund

Agree with the OP about Duran. Pretty much don’t agree on Tyler and Caleb. Come May the roster reduces to 26; likely 13 pitchers and 13 hitters. I’d have these 13 pitchers: Archer, Bundy, Gray (when activated), Ober, Paddack, Ryan all stretched out to starter length. Middle or post-starter situational: Duffey, Smith, Cotton (track him down, apologize, get him back), and one of Jax/Coulombe/Smeltzer. Late (mostly single) innings: Minaya, Duran, Pagan I also like the Thielbar story, but his stats last year stepped down from a terrific (and short) 2020. The arm is 35 now, speed is down, and the 3 batter minimum means no more cherry-picked lefties only. He simply is not good enough any more, and leaning on him is like leaning on Colomé last spring. Duffey is in a similar boat, but has probably earned a bit more leash. I’d still only use him in mop-ups until (if) he figures it out, because he absolutely does not look like a good arm with the lower velocity. Winder is probably one of the five best starters right now, but until he actually is put in the rotation, he should pitch for the Saints so he is fully ready when needed. Which will happen this year. Barring injury, I’d guess Bundy or Paddack are most likely to pitch themselves into the second group, and Smith or Coulombe most likely to pitch themselves into the late inning picture. (But heaven help us if it is as closer.) (In reality, the Twins probably keep Jax and don’t re-sign Cotton. Seriously, what happened there? They claim him early, he does well in ST, then gets waived after two scoreless innings against a good team?) Send down/release Jax, Theilbar, Stashak, Romero. If they have options, fine. If they need waivers and get claimed, good for them. Bet most clear, though, and get a chance to redeem themselves with the Saints.

I'd rather see Contreras get a shot before Cave. We kind of know by now what Cave gives (decent defender, sub-par to terrible batting range). Enjoying the bejeebers (technical term) out of watching the minor league teams this year. Thanks for the excellent report!

Mostly like the Larnach take, and this is pretty much his time. He has the tools, and if he figures out MLB, the Twins are good in left. Kirilloff isn't even worth discussing at this point. He still has pain after surgery and months of recuperation. He couldn't hit with the pain last year, and hasn't so far this year. The LAST thing we need is Kirilloff trying to gut it out as a no-power .189 hitter on the 26/8 man roster. He should stay on IL until they have a plan and execute it. (I'm doubtful he is of use at all this year; hope I'm wrong.) The part that made me giggle a little was the "if there’s a place that Minnesota has options, it’s in corner outfielders" statement. Several years ago when Max, Bryron, and Eddie were slugging, and we had Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker coming up, well... then we had riches in the OF. But Eddie is gone, Max hasn't hit in two-plus years, Byron gets hurt, Rooker is gone, and Larnach/Kirilloff have yet to click. Celestino is raw, Gordon is still a question mark, and Garlick is a one trick journeyman pony. Sure we can put bodies out there, but other than Larnach, I'm not seeing anybody other than maybe Contreras who can play defense and (maybe) hit at the MLB level right now.

Most of the focus here is on pitchers, because the Twins were so bad at that last year they clung to every asset, then went out and got a lot more (which we probably all agree needed to happen). But that left the 40-man almost devoid of position players not on the MLB roster other than infielders Lewis and Miranda. Lewis plays middle infield, has only played a couple weeks in the past two years, and needs extended time at SS where the Twins are likely to need a permanent player by next spring. Plus, middle infield is the absolute least of the lineup issues. Miranda is likely the most MLB-ready bat in the system with a good run at AAA, and there is more need there (given struggles with the bats and/or gloves at the corner spots), but I don’t see anything happening until May The immediate crunch is having only 6 OFs on the 40-man with ALL OF THEM are currently up with the Twins (2 of them hurt), while the team's most gaping holes in the order are in the outfield. All three spots until Buxton returns. (Kirilloff is a total non-entity right now until he is both healthy and hitting. Which might not be this year or ever.) So they can't make a real move to improve the position without 40-man moves, I'm not terrified of any team claiming anybody I've suggested, because they are either underperforming or older or both. Don't dump for the sake of dumping, but the Twins need some OF options via promotion or trade, and every one would mean a 40-man spot. If it means we lose a declining year of Thielbar or the hope that Vallimont learns how to control his pitches after years of wildness, well so be it. Larnach should get his extended shot now, and be kept on the 40-man even if he needs to go back down. Celestino needs to play every day and has only had tastes of AAA. By the end of the year he could be starting for the Twins, but I’d like to see him in St Paul until that slot opens. On the other hand, I’d call up Contreras now, and give him some run. Yeah, he bats left, but he is flat out better than Garlick (who is worse than useless with a pitching change, and has looked pretty bad in RF). And if you aren’t going to try Contreras now, then when? Inside options might click, and if not May and June will likely bring some trade options (Atlanta rebuilt their whole outfield on the fly last year, and did pretty well). (And OMG, how is Thielbar/Stashak considered more valuable than Minaya/Smeltzer? That swap should happen today.)

Worth a look back, but I just don't know how you wouldn't sign Sano after 2019 when he looked like he'd figured it out under Cruz's tutelage. (And Cron had an injury plagued year.) Sano's $10 million isn't over the top for pay; the frustrating part is he still may or may not be on the verge of figuring it out (three years after we thought he had).

I take back a few words about what I said about Garlick; 2-0 Twins

Thank goodness we don't need to wait forever for a hit. Correa gets it started

I agree with most of what you say (especially about it being time to move), though I don't think Strotman should be on the DFA list. Yet. And for better or worse, his rep is enough that I'm sure he'd be claimed where most/all of the others would not. If you need a name to add for Strotman, I'd toss in Caleb Thielbar; love his story, but he looks pretty done. I'd sure try to get Cotton back (he looked a lot better than Duffey, Thielbar, Jax, and Stashak). I'm fairly shocked Minaya isn't on this team now (far better option than the Mediocre to Dreadful Four in the last set of parentheses). Smeltzer has looked good so far. Contreras seems a more viable option than Garlick. (On defense and with the bat no matter what hand the pitcher is using.) If the Twins really are going to a 5 man rotation, I'd like to see Winder join Celestino on a non-DFA Green Line train to CHS Field. Both need to play regularly if they are to be of real help this year (and I suspect both will be needed).

In semi-seriousness, I think the tradition of unwritten rules has to do with the extremely limited set of rules that started the game (1860's New York rules are kind of seen as the original; you can see them at: https://www.vbba.org/1860-beadles-full-text/ ). There were originally 14, but if you scroll down to see the set approved by a player convention, there are 38. And one of the things that might jump out is there are no called balls, and only called strikes (sec 37) if the striker repeatedly refuses to swing at good pitches for the purposes of delaying the game. The written rule was for the pitcher to throw it over the plate "and for the striker" and the unwritten rule was to swing at good pitches. Another unwritten rule was that stealing bases was allowed. Play the rules of 1860 without stealing and you get a swift, fun game. Play them with stealing, and all the sudden you realize why there was a penalty for not swinging repeatedly (because you were letting players steal bases), and why quickly the umpire was authorized/required to call balls and strikes on every pitch. Games could drag on for hours. (So the long gameplay issue is as old as the game.)

Maybe one warm up against low-A batters wasn't enough to show Stashak was ready for MLB? Gee, maybe we'll call up Thorpe next. Sure he gave up 8 runs in 1.2 innings yesterday, but he only pitched 1.2 so he should be fresh. (And hey, it makes some of the roster calls at the end of the month easier.)

Well, Caleb has looked bad (and kinda over).

The pitching was the big area of need, and it hasn't been bad. Tough to work around the no-hitting (and the Kirilloff wrist debacle, though they certainly should have known when camp opened that he was still in pain).

Oh, and I threw up in my mouth a little when I heard Stashak was back.

Brutal substitution for Gordon; weakened the D (putting a weaker RF out there and a RF in CF which didn't help with the tag play). And got us two more Ks in the score card. Any word on the TV side on Gordon being hurt? Or was it a Rocco special? I'd really like to see Celestino and Garlick go down, and give Contreras a shot. And it looks like Miranda is heating up. Not sure either Urshela, Sano, or any bench player is hitting well enough to keep him in the minors. The Twins just can't work with all the weak bats in lineup (especially with a stud injured, and another in a deep slump).

Coming late to the thread after text/listening with a friend. Some bad news for sure, but Winder had a needed extended outing (and pretty good for his second MLB appearance against a very good lineup). Nice to see some life from Larnach (who could go a long way to fixing the corner OF issue is he can realize his potential). Tough to win when you don't score, though. (3rd hit from Larnach as I type.) Offense seems to be the limiter on this team (the pitching has been okay). Game over.

You can count on a high contact rate with the stooges.

Upside is the same preview shows the Twins with hitting success against Houck in a more limited sample.

Hope you are right about Gray, but here is a contrasting sentence from the Boston Globe's game preview (lived in Boston for a couple years, and still get the Globe online, preview written by Amin Touri): The Sox will try and get the bats going against Twins offseason acquisition Sonny Gray, one of their favorite opponents — Gray is 1-6 against Boston in his career, with a 6.64 ERA in nine appearances.

I don't mind when position players pitch, and please, no more rules about pitchers/declarations/limitations. Like Kapler I'm all for discarding 'unwritten rules' that affect basic gameplay, and dumping them avoids cluttering the rulebook with fixes like declaring pitchers. The other team should be expected to take full swings against your position player. No team that would accept victory if they had a huge rally should expect their opponents to take innings off. If you really want to save your bullpen then play better, accept opponents teeing off on your 'Astudillo' (even on 3-0), or walk off the field and forfeit the game. Unwritten rules have their place (respect your team-mates, respect your opponents, respect the game, don't try to injure players even if it is "legal"), but not anywhere that affects basic gameplay or competition. (One of the stupidest 'unwritten rule' claims of recent years was Brian Dozier complaining when an opponent bunted against a Twins shift. Partly because it was stupid, partly because no such unwritten rule existed, and partly because it went against one of the classic unwritten rules in baseball history, 'hit 'em where they ain't.')

I hope the Twins are as down on trading Lewis as we are. He has looked good at short and at the plate so far, and they need a plan if/when Correa opts out at the end of the year. I don't see anyone else on the SS horizon (Martin has looked great running the bases, but pretty awful defensively at short; hope he gets work in the OF). It would be tough to trade the pitchers listed; if they perform they are too valuable to lose, if they are injured they are untrade-able (looking at you Canterino).

I'm laughing with pain. Not because of Sano, but for the flashbacks to reading the Godot play. Which was excruciating. (FYI, I originally typo-ed the name as Gadot. For the record, Gal would definitely be worth waiting for...)

I agree we are probably stuck with Sano for the year, because of everything the article said. But I disagree about Sano needing ABs to work through this; he pretty much does his thing until his job is threatened (one year getting sent down; last year being effectively benched), and then he seems to adapt. So bat him ninth when he is in the order, and start taking him out of the order as soon as you can figure out an alternative. Or even if there isn't a great alternative. Bring up a minor leaguer to play at first (though having seen some of the Saints this year, Miranda has looked a little rough at 1B). See if Urshela can do it, opening up more playing time for Arraez. Work the free agent/trade market. Anything to plausibly make it look as if Sano is being bypassed. Because that is the only time he turns it on. (FYI, I don't think it is a "caring" thing. He is in great shape and playing pretty good D because of that. He has a pretty good eye, and a low chase rate. But he might just not be good enough to hit the pitches in the zone on a consistent basis, or he refuses to take advice on how to be more consistent, or a bit of both. Either way, and garbage time stats that make him look 'above average' aside, I hope he is not around after this year.)

Kirilloff is a super gut punch. OF was clearly the position of need that received the least attention in the offseason. I get that; SS and SP were glaring holes, and there were some good in-house prospects led by Kirilloff and Larnach. But Larnach hasn't made the step beyond AAA (and hasn't even been hitting there so far, though it's early), and now Kirilloff is out and very possibly for the year. Maybe Larnach is struck by lightning and takes off (though Contreras is probably a better bet), or a Gordon comes out of nowhere. But most likely the Twins will need to find a free agent or trade to put a real MLB bat in LF. They have enough questions about catching offense that they can't continue to carry low-pop .200 hitters in both corner OF positions.

I disagree that drafts and bonuses (expectation-based) have anything to do with actual breakout players (who perform to high levels after being drafted/signed) except you hope a higher percentage of the first become the second. Kohl Stewart is an excellent example. High pick, high expectations, never broke out at any level and is out of baseball. This is baseball, not football or basketball. A far higher level of top picks don't pan out in this sport than you see in other sports, so tracking players primed for breakout is well worth the effort. And again breakout is actuality not expectation. Though predicting breakout is expectation of actuality. Still... fun for most of us to think about, though clearly not your cup of tea.

Well, right now I'd tell Nick Gordon he is the regular LF. He's a very good athlete, he was a top pick for a reason, he is out of options so the team needs to find out about him now, and he is the least embarrassing bat among the non-Buxton OFs. Gordon is likely to improve on both O and D if he is given a regular gig, and if he doesn't that's good to know as well. His floor is certainly better than we'd see from Larnach. Not right-handed? I don't really care. Rocco talks about how he wants his best batters (Buxton, Correa) at the top of the order, I want the best nine bats IN the order. Platooning is nice if you have some extra good hitters; this team doesn't even have three good hitters in the outfield or Kepler would be fighting for his job. Beyond that, Garlick would be the best immediate add; Upton is Matt Shoemaker in an outfielder's guise. The Twins should also take a look pretty quickly at Mark Contreras who had the lamp go on last year, and is raking so far this spring. Maybe even in April with the rosters expanded. I believe Winder has earned a real shot, but since Rocco is just going to trot him out for an inning once a week, he'd serve the club better working as a starter in St Paul. (Oh no! Contreras isn't on the 40 man! Umm. Maybe we could dare to DFA Vallimont who blew chunk last year, and currently sports a 67.50 ERA and .714 BAA.) And maybe work the trade market for a legit OF; not a used up name like Upton. They will come available (I think Atlanta found one or four on their way to the title last year).