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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    The problem is that people watch player performances like day traders on the stock market. Take the longer view. He will be fine.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    I am in complete agreement. The answer is VERY few teams and a few don't really have any. If what someone was/is looking for is a bulletproof bunch of five starters, all dependable to start a playoff game, well good luck. Maybe being a Dodger fan is in your future, and even they are having a few issues. However, the Twins have had MUCH more success building a pitching staff in the past five years than they had in most of the previous 30 years. I call that a win. Whether it fits the contrived notion of "pitching pipeline" is irrelevant. Unfortunately, someone (perhaps on TD?) coined that term and it has become the meme by which everything is measured and critiqued. Retire the term and just enjoy some decent pitching while we have it.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    Perhaps I didn’t convey the nuances of this very clearly. I didn’t make that comparison because I thought that Festa and/or Matthews were destined to become Twins legends like Viola, Radke, and Santana. I made it to make the point that the first couple of years in the majors are difficult for nearly all players — pitchers in particular. Since Viola, Radke, and Santana also struggled initially, it should also help to dispel the notion that a lack of instant success dooms Festa, Matthew’s, et al. to failure. You chose to make this about chronological age, which is not a concept without merit, but that was not my argument. Judging from your post, it seems like you are maybe 75-25% that age is the determining factor. I am probably 75-25% the other direction. Obviously, we come at this from different directions, and that’s OK for both of us. For the record, I wish your son the best in his football pursuits, but it seems likely that he has less in common with JJ Watt than any current Twins pitcher has with a former Twins pitcher. I don’t think these guys are about to become legends, but completely writing them off because of their age doesn’t really work for me. YMMV.
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    Keep it classy!
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    Castro, I believe, was DFA'd before the Twins got him. That's not a glowing recommendation for bringing him up early either. IF the player is ready at a younger age, of course that bears for greater success because as they hit their prime they will be even better, but you can't will them to be successful just by putting them there.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    I'm not comparing at their chronological ages. I'm comparing their first couple of years in the league. I'm not suggesting that the two of them will become these star pitchers. I'm merely suggesting that Viola, Radke, and Santana weren't world beaters the first year or two they were in the majors. As I said earlier, if you want guys who are going to dominate the competition (or even be really competitive) right out of the gate, it's going to be a mostly disappointing endeavor, but I will applaud greatly if the Twins uncover one. Bert Blyleven was pretty dominant at 19 years old, but he's in the Hall of Fame. I'll be very happy with good solid MLB starting pitcher as my measure.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    Yes it does. And it also does with the Twins many times. But, it doesn't exist anywhere all the time. As for the original issue with Brooks Lee, there is always the chance that the great high school player, excellent college player, and very good minor league player isn't quite up to the same standard at the major league level, for the aforementioned reasons. I hope that's not the case, but we don't know for sure yet.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    Fine. Your mileage varies. I get it. However, if you are going to sit around and wait for a pitcher to come up and dominate, it’s going to be a VERY long wait — on this team or any other. Those are very fluky things and we’ll see if he maintains it after 20 starts. Also, compared to the average pitcher in those years, Radke and Viola were probably on the low end of the spectrum for innings pitched per start. It was a different league and a different time. They certainly weren’t striking out as many hitters per nine innings as Matthews and Festa either, but that apparently doesn’t matter. .
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    They are glorified rookies. VERY few pitchers come up and dominate. Viola didn’t. Radke didn’t. Not even Santana. They need developmental time, and so far, their early achievements mirror those of other good pitchers. Might they become disappointments? Sure, but it’s too early to decide that.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Your point is well taken, but part of the issue is also that everything is harder in MLB than it is in college, or even AAA. The ball is hit harder, moves faster, comes off the bat weirder from better pitching, etc. I’m not defending, his lapses, but often it’s not as easy as trying harder, and equally often, that “hustle” is just false hustle or urgency produced by poor playing position.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m pretty sure this would be too messy to actually figure out, but Bride, as a position player, pitching four times in 15 games has got to be some sort of (sad) record. Surely Elias must have stats on this some where.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    This is indeed my fear. On paper, if there is an actual budget that won’t just be stripped away when opportunity presents itself, subtracting substantial contract money should free up said money to be spent on new players moving forward. I’m not sure we can currently trust that this will happen. If it would happen, I would advocate for trading Pablo Lopez. He’s really good. I really like him. But, with Ober (who you can’t really trade right now), Ryan, and Lopez all being free agents in the same year, one of them has to go eventually, and Ryan and Ober are cheaper to hold onto. I recognize that this puts some trust into guys like Festa and Matthew’s, but they look as good as any young pitchers that we have had in the past, so I say take the chance.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    He’s probably great but Philip Humber and Dallas Braden pitched perfect games in the majors and that didn’t make them superstars. If the real analysis holds up, I’m fine with it. But don’t be distracted by the shiny object.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    You are definitely right that "assuming" debt is factored into the sticker price on most things, and I would be very pleased if you are right, but I'm not optimistic. When the $425M debt was made known, it was presented in a manner that suggested that the buyer would assume the debt. Otherwise, the debt is a non-issue, so why would it have been brought up?
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    And that’s the scary part. It probably shouldn’t make the Twins more valuable but the Pohlads may think it does and hold on for a higher price that isn’t coming. Meanwhile, here we sit.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    Walker Jenkins I hope so, but injuries have been a real issue. . . I want to see him play!!Emmanuel Rodriguez I think he is sort of a much better version of Eduard Julien. Again. . . health!!Luke Keaschall I'm OK with #3 on Luke Keaschall. They hype train has gotten a little over the top (again) on him at the MLB level. Charlee Soto He's easily our best potential remaining pitching "official prospect". Let's wait and see what develops, but my fingers are crossed here. Andrew Morris I put more emphasis on proximity to the majors, and Morris looks like he could help us sooner rather than later. Not sure he's a front of the rotation guy, but as a #3 type guy, he could be super valuable. . . and soon! Kaelen Culpepper He's in the same "young prospect" club as Soto. Looks promising, but needs lots of development. Dasan Hill Super Intriguing, especially as a lefty, but so so so far away from the majors at this point. Billy Amick I like Amick a LOT. He could potentially be the good power corner infielder that we desperately need on the Twins. Brandon Winokur Maybe could be useful someday - a lot of all or nothing though. Kyle DeBarge Seems like a good prospect, but I don't think we know enough yet. Marco Raya The healthier, but more carefully monitored, pitching prospect than Prielipp. Not fully convinced on his ultimate value, but possibly a good bullpen arm. Connor Prielipp Talent. . . yes. We need some healthy pitching for an extended streak before he gets my vote to be inside the top 10. Gabriel Gonzalez Seems like he might be putting it back together after some less than stellar results. CJ Culpepper Sure he throws a lot of different pitches, but are they good enough to be useful at the MLB level?Khadim Diaw Maybe he could be the catcher #1 in the future. Looks pretty solid at CR.Yasser Mercedes Speaking of dreaming. . . I think he could really be special, but a lot more time is needed.Ricardo Olivar Seems like he could be catcher #2 in the making. PLEASE let this be true!Carson McCusker I really don't think that he will make it at the MLB level, but a guy can dream and drool! Yunior Severino Seems like a DH waiting to happen. Probably more likely to pan out than McCusker, but the clock is ticking big time. Payton Eeles Seems incredibly likely to be a AAAA player, but you never know.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    It's pretty hard to directly compare the two, as we don't really have solid numbers for either one and several factors. . . stadium, fan base, etc. are hard to quantify. That being said, I think it is fairly certain that the $425 million debt is a bit of a poison pill for anyone looking. I think that the billionaire or group of them that buys the team may not care about a player or two making an extra couple of million, but that's a big number even for someone rich enough to buy the team. If I read this correctly, in essence they have turned down offers of $1.5 billion + $425 million (debt) or $1.925 billion because they want $2.125 billion (with debt) or more for a franchise that CNBC values at about $1.65 billion (and they probably have pretty decent information). So, they are asking for about half a billion more than the street thinks the team is worth. Hold on tight people and bring a snack. This is going to be a long bumpy ride.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    If the trade can be made for a non-prospect or a barely-prospect, then I think it's a reasonable idea. Given the current lack of depth at catcher in the system, this could be a flyer worth taking. I wouldn't overpay for him, but I wouldn't mind employing him.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    It looks like it's the start of the silly season that pre-dates the trade deadline. Some people on TD think that the team is just about there and acquiring a big bat (or two!) would put us over the top. Problem A is that those guys have to be available, and problem B is that you have to be willing to put together a trade package that you are willing to live with and that they will take. Every team's fan base always overestimates the potential of their prospects, because prospects are all about hopes and dreams of the future. Twins fans are no different and are all about trades until they see the price. Those people are right. It could possibly work, if we are willing to pay the price, which we aren't because there are too many sacred cows among the prospects. On the other hand, some people on TD think that this team is terrible and that it just needs to be blown up. The players are bad. The manager should be fired. The front office needs to go as well. The hyperbole is so over the top that it's hard to take it seriously, even if there is a grain of truth in some of it. AAAAAND where does that leave you after blowing it all up? A truly terrible team with a brand new (meaning inexperienced) manager and front office guys who are willing to take a job with a confused organization. That works if you are fine with being terrible for a period (100+ loss terrible) followed by -- if we're pretty lucky -- another potential shot at the playoffs, etc. with a new batch of players. The problem is that those players may not work out to be any better than the old ones, and the cycle starts over. For me, I think that the mostly stand pat approach is the best answer. Trade for someone who could help around the fringes and/or trade someone who you think is replaceable. That's not exciting, but no matter who we trade for, if the injured guys and ineffective guys aren't producing, this team isn't very good. AND, if they are producing and healthy, the second half could be pretty good. YMMV
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    I've been around baseball in general and the Twins in specific to say "why not?!" It's certainly a long ways from a sure thing, but my optimism runs deep. I lived through some pretty ugly decades of Twins baseball and this team has a lot more going on than many of those did. Health is always a question mark, but the pitching staff is a long ways from washed up (Happ & Shoemaker anyone?) and hitting is a weird thing - guys could break out unexpectedly without warning at any moment. I'm still saying they will win in the mid-upper 80's and make the playoffs. A record like that doesn't come from a team with perfect luck and perfect health. Then, when you make the playoffs, anything can happen, and for those of us who have been around awhile know that for a fact.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    Based on his past performance, Gasper has no defensive position. That means that he needs to be the DH, which means he needs to be among the very best hitters on the team in order to justify his existence as a full-time DH. When teams don’t have that guy, they generally rotate the position in order to give guys 1/2 days off — most teams are like this (as are the Twins). It generally works pretty well. If given a full season of run at DH, he MIGHT be close to a league average hitter, something like a 95 OPS+. That doesn’t represent DH numbers. There is a reason that TWO major league teams have looked at Mickey Gasper and decided that he’s probably not a major league bat. Could they catch lightning in a bottle, like they did with Kody Clemons? Of course the answer is maybe, but he showed pretty much nothing in his first go around with the Twins. (And Clemons is quickly turning back into Kody Clemons, not quite a major leaguer). At this point, I really don’t see the point of giving Gasper an extended run. YMMV
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    He did deserve a better fate, but him coming out of the game didn't lose it. That's on the offense, which was "offensive". I don't love Duran giving up the game tying run, nor Sands giving up the game winner, but they get to do that, and if the offense were even functional, it wouldn't be an issue. C'mon boys! We've gotta get some runs!
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    The pitching staff deserves better. Much better.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    It’s a little sad that Alcala didn’t work out, but the inconsistency that he showed made him frequently unusable in any kind of substantial role. There was probably only a 20% chance that he would have eventually worked through his difficulties with the Twins. The trade to Boston probably increases that chance a bit, but not by a tremendous amount. He needed new scenery and we didn’t completely give him away — probably a good trade. It won’t surprise me if he goes to Boston and becomes a useful setup guy for them. Relief pitchers are weird like that. There are a whole bunch of them out there that washed out of one organization (or even several) and transformed into successful pitchers with another — only to lose it and resurface with still another team for more success. I think it is likely Alcala could be one of those because his stuff will always be tantalizing so teams will continue to give him a look.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    The Twins are in a bit of a catch 22 situation. On one hand, they have some specific needs and have some prospect capital they could spend. On the other hand, they probably aren’t good enough that filling a need or two will make a substantial difference. Add in the fact that they also probably aren’t bad enough that a fire sale is in order and you are left with a status quo type of deadline, with perhaps something small and marginal around the edges. Not exciting, but likely the best use of resources (unless you have lots of $$$ to spend).
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