Physics Guy

It feels like #1 is most likely at this juncture. #2 is unlikely to me as I can't see Falvey & Levine trading away a significant amount of their prospect pool to acquire a front end SP. They could have spent money they have available to sign one of the FA pitchers such as Ray, Gaussman or Stroman. Any one of those would have been a satisfactory signing. I suspect Greinke, Pineda, J. Iglesias and a couple of RP sounds about right. Ugh...

This is where I am at. I sense a bunch of anger about the Twins not signing Berrios, but we really don't know what was offered to him. From my recollection Berrios has made it clear the past couple of years that he wanted to reach free agency, so it would have been crazy not to trade him if he was set on getting to FA. While I agree with much of the article, this part: "...and if an injury bug hadn’t hit him, the price tag would be well north of $250 million." seems a bit disingenuous. Buxton has played over 100 G once in 7 seasons. It's not just one little injury that has the Twins maybe a bit hesitant to offer big money. I'm not saying I'm opposed to offering over $100 million on a heavily incentive-laden contract , but let's not act like it's crazy to not want to commit big money to a player who has played less than 40% of the team's games the last four years. That being said I'd honestly be fine with something like a 7 year/$140 M contract, but I'd want the base to start at $70 M. Allow him to earn up to another $10 M per season based on games played, starting with incentives when he clears 100G. I'm not sure what is allowed as far as incentives, but I'm pretty sure they can't be performance-based. I think they have to be based on games or plate appearances.

The system has to change. Players should not have to wait 6-7 years to become FA. Had Tatis not signed a huge extension, he would be making near the league minimum. I think it's ridiculous that a third year player who is a regular is making essentially the same as a rookie and will below a 7-year vet who might be vastly underperforming him. IMO there should be larger increases from year 1 to year 2 and then they should reach arbitration by year 3. They should be FA after their fourth (or maybe 5th year). There also needs to be a way to get rid of the gaming of the system on guys like Kris Bryant and soon-to-be Alex Kirilloff. I have to think that negotiating the next CBA is going to be a battle. There is an incredible amount of animosity between the owners and MLBPA. They couldn't come to a simple conclusion on universal DH that everyone is in favor of, simply because it's a bargaining chip in the next negotiations. I am not going to be surprised in the slightest if there is a lockout/strike prior to next season. I hope the two sides understand how much they can damage the sport and figure things out, but I'm not hopeful.

While I can see the argument for Abreu and Santana being ahead of Sano, given the choice I would want Sano. Barring injury, I see minimal chance Sano is below 3rd in the division. Actually, I would say Santana is the likeliest to fall. Sano will be 28 this season, vs 35 for Santana and 34 for Abreu. Sano has a higher career OPS than Santana and Abreu's 2020 was a significant outlier from the previous two seasons. 2019 OPS: Sano 0.923, Santana, 0.911 and Abreu 0.834. If Sano plays 140-150 games this year, my money would be on Sano for sure for exactly the reason you stated. Sano's exit velocity is a strong indicator of success. He needs to reduce his K rate, but his EV leads to more hits on balls put in play. When the poll came out on Twitter, I voted for Abreu (for this year). Long term give me Sano all day.

I think this sounds about right. I have no feeling for Gibaut and Waddell, but I would think Hamilton has the inside track due to the fact he has been claimed three times now. If the Twins like him I doubt they want to try to get him through waivers. It also helps that he has at least a minimum of MLB experience. I like the additions of Colome and Robles. Colome takes some of the pressure off of Rogers and gives them a great top 3. While Robles could be a bust, he was a good value add with some upside. Alcala offers excellent insurance if Robles doesn't work. He could be the next guy to rise up the ladder. I do have one quibble. I really don't think Rogers has struggled against RH. In 2019 he had a better OPS against vs RH (.611) than LH (.677). In 2018 it was .643 vs RH and .428 vs LH. I think he will rebound and have a great 2021. He was definitely a bit unlucky last year and having Colome will help. It will allow Rocco to use him better in advantageous matchups.

Who will win the AL Central in 2021? Since the White Sox traded for Lance Lynn, added Adam Eaton to address a need in the OF and then spent big to add Liam Hendriks to their bullpen, the White Sox have been the favorite to win the division. ESPN recently posted their projected All-Stars for 2021. Let's just say it was much kinder to the White Sox: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30833382/let-predict-2021-mlb-all-star-rosters-al-nl They projected 6 White Sox and didn't include Abreu. The Twins had a few mentions (Garver, Donaldson and Buxton) but mostly because of injury questions. Cruz was the only Twin on the list. While it does appear that the Sox may have more star power, let's analyze how the teams stack up. Let's start with the rotations, where the top 5 for the Twins are likely Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak. The White Sox projected top 5 are Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon/Reynaldo Lopez. The Twins had a team ERA of 3.58 and the White Sox were at 3.81. I would agree that adding Lynn (as much as it pains me) improves the Sox slightly more that Happ does the Twins. Keuchel is due for some significant regression, but Giolito should make up for some of that. Maeda isn't likely to repeat a #2 in the Cy young race season, but some continued improvement by Berrios and a full year of Pineda can make up for some of his regression. While the starters can be slotted in multiple orders, I feel confident in saying the Twins win two of the matchups and the White Sox 2 with the #5 spot being a push. Overall, I think these rotations are very comparable. The Hendriks signing for the White Sox clearly helps their bullpen, but the subtraction of Colome should not be dismissed. The White Sox rely on a younger group of relievers behind Hendriks that do have promise. Whether the Twins will have an improved bullpen this year is up for debate. Adding Colome, Robles and Anderson while removing May, Romo and Clippard would suggest a downgrade. The Twins front office and coaching staff have shown the ability to build a very solid bullpen with what sometimes looks like questionable parts. I do like the upside of Jorge Alcala and hope he can fill a role similar to Trevor May from last season. I like the top three of the Twins (Colome, Rogers and Duffey) over the Sox, but I think I would give the Sox a slight edge at this point. It does still feel like the Twins might have a Clippard-like signing to finish off their offseason. Thus far, I would give the White Sox an ever so slight advantage. Now let's analyze each position. At catcher, the White Sox may have the more complete player in Grandal, but if Garver can find some of his 2019 form I feel like the Twins have a slight edge due to their depth with Jeffers. At first it's Abreu vs Sano. It's hard to argue against last year's AL MVP, but the White Sox edge at 1B may not be as great as it appears. The 34 year old definitely benefited from the short season as he put up an OPS 150 pts higher than either of the previous two seasons. It was encouraging to see Sano play 53/60 games for the Twins this past year and it's not unreasonable to think Sano could match Abreu's output this season, although I still give Abreu the edge. The Simmons signing for the Twins helps them in multiple ways. Moving Jorge Polanco to 2B gives the Twins the edge at 2B over Nick Madrigal, although Arraez may have already had that edge. Polanco provides much more pop than Madrigal. Moving Arraez to Util also give the Twins an edge over fielding-first Danny Mendick. The White Sox have the edge at SS with the back-to-back .300 seasons from Tim Anderson over Andrelton Simmons. To round out the infield, we have the interesting case of Josh Donaldson versus Yoan Moncada. We have a pretty good idea of what Donaldson brings when healthy, but of course that is the kicker. Can he play 140 games? Moncada had a breakout season in 2019 with a .915 OPS, but struggled mightily last season, possibly due to the lingering effects of contracting coronavirus prior to the season. I'd give the edge to Moncada, but this could easily go either way. The scorecard in the infield goes 3-2 for the Sox if you include Util, but this is a close race. The outfield has some intriguing comparisons as well. Eloy Jimenez gets the edge in LF over whoever the Twins put out there. He has an all-star level bat but by all accounts should probably be a DH. Max Kepler struggled a bit in 2020 but should be able to out-produce Adam Eaton. At CF we get to compare two former #1 overall prospects in baseball. Luis Robert was on a tear to start 2020 but struggled the second half. Byron Buxton has two years in a row with a .800+ OPS, but continues to have difficulty staying on the field. Robert probably gets the edge here until Buxton proves he can stay on the field, but Robert does need to show that he can make adjustments to what the league did to him in the second half. Jake Cave is better than anything the White Sox currently have for a fourth outfielder. Let's call the OF a push leaning the Twins' way. What else is left to discuss? Don't worry, I didn't forget the Twins' biggest advantage, which is at DH. The Twins do have a significant advantage with Nelson Cruz over whoever the Sox put at DH, at least until Father Time finally catches up to Cruz. The Twins have a solid backup who will need AB, in Brent Rooker, that they can use to spell Cruz and keep him fresh. The last debate comes with team defense. This is where the Simmons signing really makes a difference. In looking at several metrics on Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, the White Sox had the edge in 2019, although the Twins were closer than you think. As a composite, it appears as though both teams were in the top 10 in MLB with the Sox being a few spots ahead of the Twins. The Twins have definitely closed that gap and possible passed up the Sox. The fact that 6 players given All-Star nods for the White Sox in the ESPN article (Giolito, Hendriks, Grandal, Anderson, Jimenez and Robert), tends to make one feel they are way ahead of the Twins. One could argue that the Twins have a near comparable player to each one of those and greater team depth. I completely understand where the national pundits are coming from, but I think the race will be neck and neck all season. If the Twins get 140 games out of Donaldson, Sano and Buxton I feel like they win the AL Central, possibly quite comfortably. Clearly the issue will be if that is possible. We will all find out in October.

Ok, I'll give you the salary, but it's more like 1/3 of that since we didn't acquire him until the trade deadline.

Yeah, that's either careless or disingenuous. He had a 7BB/9 last year in 15 IP. In 96 IP the previous year it was 3.6 and 2.3 when he was in the minors.

"I think Odorizzi and Paxton are a step above Walker but all three have good ceilings, while I think Paxton has the safest floor so he’d be my pick if I had a say." I'm not quite on the same wavelength. I would argue Odorizzi has the safest floor as his injury situation last year could easily be considered fluky and not likely to be an issue going forward. Paxton has a higher ceiling, but seems to be a greater injury risk. Walker is a total wild card and should be priced as such. Walker would be my choice if they are looking for a budget addition (5M or less). The others will likely go for (much) more.

How exactly did we get "burned" in that trade? I understand that we got very little from Dyson after coming over from SF, but Jaylin Davis has a 0.167 career MLB avg thus far and will be turn 27 in the middle of the upcoming season. LaMonte Wade stands a better chance of being a MLB regular than Davis does. I wish both Davis and Wade well, but they were marginal extras for the Twins and I'm glad they will get a chance with somebody else.

I'm not excited about Kintzler, but he makes much more sense with Simmons in the IF.

I don't get the angst here at all. There are still a large number of FA available at any position the Twins are considering. Happ is not a sexy signing, but the Twins are not paying Trevor Bauer money and the difference for the rest is not that great. 11M for Kluber or 8M for Happ? Since we are talking about their #4 starter, I'll take Happ. I also like the fact that he is a lefty. For those dreaming of another signing for the rotation to push Happ down, I think you should stay asleep longer and enjoy the dream. Honestly, the rotation wasn't the problem in the postseason. Money saved by signing Happ can hopefully shore up holes at DH, IF and RH relief. If all the options to fill those holes disappear, then I will start to worry.

Ugh is right. Please........no........

Hendriks turned the corner when he was released and Toronto stuck him in the bullpen. The following year, 2015, his average fastball velo went from 91.3 to 94.9. the past two years he has bumped that average velo into the 96+ range. The Twins certainly could have given him some time in the bullpen before deciding to cut bait. Hindsight is 20/20 but I wish they had at tried him a bit out there. Sometimes it takes a change of scenery for a player to figure things out.

Because of his down year last year, I'd think he'd be relatively cheap to acquire, especially with the Cubs cutting salary. He might just be a rental player, but that's OK if the cost isn't high. If he has a good year, maybe he's willing to sign for a reasonable contract. I doubt he's going to get anywhere near what he would have 2-3 years ago if he had been a FA. Some of the luster has worn off.

Totally agree. I don't think there is a chance, but he would check a ton of boxes. As Ted Schwerzler wrote, another option that can probably be acquired relatively cheaply, if the Darvish trade is any indication, is Kris Bryant. He could play 3B, 1B and LF. He would check many of the same boxes as DJ. Again, the only other position needed would be a middle IF utility player.

I've made mention of this on at least a couple of threads, but I really think the Twins should at least explore LeMahieu as a Util/DH player. MLBTradeRumors estimated him at 4/68, which is well below the 5/100M that is rumored to be his asking price. I could see a 5/85-90M contract midpoint working for the Twins. He would likely be a step down from Cruz's past two years, but might not be a downgrade from what we should expect from Cruz this year. The big advantage I see with LeMahieu is that he could play 20-30 games in relief of Donaldson, Arraez and Sano, all of whom have had a difficult time staying healthy. Even if DJ was a step down from Cruz, I think the added benefit of keeping the others healthy in the lineup could be a net positive for the Twins. The Twins would only need to then sign a true backup SS for the hitting side of the roster. Ultimately I don't think the Twins can outbid NY if they want to bring him back, but they should be exploring this option.

While Cruz has been an integral part of the lineup the past two years, I don't agree entirely that their lineup will suffer without him. Using the committee role could allow our regulars to stay healthy and stay in the lineup. Part of it depends on who they sign instead of Cruz. If they don't bring back Cruz, they can sign somebody with positional versatility. It also would allow for strategic use of Cave and Rooker for lefty and right matchups. It will force Baldelli to be more creative with his lineups, but it doesn't have to be a negative. I've come around to believing the Twins will be fine letting Cruz go if he requires more than a 1 year, 14-15M contract.

I think Cody was pretty spot-on with his original analysis. I see most "important" as meaning players we have concerns about and need to perform at a level they are capable of. #1 would definitely be Buxton for me. I don't know the exact numbers, but the Twins are a different team when he plays. I think it was something like a .700 club with him and .500 without. #2 for me would also be Donaldson. We need him to play 130-140 games at 3B. His defense and patience/production in the lineup would be pretty hard to replace. #3 is where I would diverge from Cody. While Berrios is definitely important to the Twins success, I have little doubt he will perform at least at the level of his last three seasons. I would say either Polanco or Arraez would be #3 for me, mainly due to health. If the Twins do not sign a clear upgrade over Adrianza at Util, Polanco being able to play a healthy 140-150 games at SS is crucial to the Twins success. The same can essentially be said for Arraez at 2B. If he can play 140-150 healthy games at 2B, he should be our full-time lead-off hitter. Neither player currently has a likely replacement on the roster. The LF and DH spots don't concern me as much as they have many options on the 40-man to fill those if needed.

That being said, this doesn't really fit the original idea of this thread, which is "value" shopping.

I went with the MLBTradeRumors estimate as I hadn't seen any info on his negotiations. He may want 5/$100 M, but that doesn't mean he gets it. The fact that he hasn't signed yet, leads me to believe that the Yankees are playing hardball with him. I would be willing to add a year and maybe go to 5/$90M (1 additional year and +$1M per season). He is a GG 2B who can also play the corners. I think his versatility would be a perfect fit and suspect his skill-set would age well (age 32-36 seasons). Ultimately, we can't win a battle with the Yankees if they really want him.

Geez man, you seem a bit tense about the Twins' inactivity thus far. It's early yet and only the Padres have done anything significant. The top 4 FA haven't signed and the market starts at the top. Everyone waits to see what happens at the top before signing. You can blame MLB for the Cruz situation. Until they decide on DH in the NL, he's sitting tight. He has no leverage unless NL teams come into play. Here are my comments on a few items from your first post. Yes, it is possible Berrios and Buxton are gone when they become FA. If they are worth it, I have confidence the Twins will offer a market contract. It's not like they haven't tried to extend Berrios. If you think they can't replace Rosario, I'm probably wasting my time here. He is a slightly above average corner OF and the Twins have plenty of depth there. I'd argue a platoon of Cave/Rooker could produce similar results and I suspect Kirilloff is ultimately the replacement. He has higher upside than Rosario and the platoon combo. Putting Arraez/Polanco at leadoff and Kepler in Rosario's spot in the lineup also takes care of Rosario's spot in the lineup. So Pineda is the most reliable starter the last two years? Sitting for 60 games is reliable? Here are the stats from the last two years: Pineda - 172 IP, 3.92 ERA, 165 K Berrios - 263.1 IP, 3.76 ERA, 263 Berrios will be 27 this year, Pineda 32. Lastly, a straight two-year contract for Cruz scares the hell out of me. I'd offer him no more than 1 year at 15M. If he doesn't take it move on. I'd actually prefer the Twins go after LeMahieu at something like 5/80M. He could spell three positions where he potentially have health issues (1B, 2B, 3B) and could take a significant number of AB at DH. He could be the super utility guy we hoped Marwin would be. I get the feeling the Twins are waiting to see what the market does before investing. I suspect they are one of the few buyers on the market.

What about DJ at 4/68M as projected by MLBTradeRumors? We would have to let Cruz go, but it would give us much more versatility and theoretically doesn't cost much more than Cruz. He could be the true super utility player we hoped Marwin could be. He has played significant time at 2B, 3B and 1B. He could help keep Donalson, Arraez and Sano healthy as well as take a significant number of AB at DH. I love Cruz, but I think this is better for the team long-term.

Yes to this. I don't think Polanco is a starting SS on a WS-caliber team. As a 2b, sure, but Arraez appears to be the better hitter. I would prefer the Twins sign Semien, Gregorius or Simmons to be their SS and use Polanco and the Util player that many have suggested Kike Hernandez for. I suspect one of the SS will be obtainable at a very reasonable and short contract. I don't like the idea of trading Arraez. He is the "tough out" in the lead off position. I really hope Rocco puts Arraez in the lead-off position and leaves him there. His OBP is nearly identical vs LHP and RHP, but he slugs much higher against RHP.

I was having a chat with my high school-aged son today about pitches and the topic of the screwball came up. I recalled that Fernando Valenzuela threw it. That led me to look up his stats for his rookie season when he won the ROY and CY awards. He was 13-7 with 11 CG and 8 SHO in 192 IP. Now that doesn't seem like a ton of innings, but that was the strike year of 1981 and the Dodgers only played 110 games. He did his damage in 25 starts. That reminded me (from my heydays of baseball card collecting) of the 1980 Oakland A's staff of Rick Langford, Mike Norris, Matt Keough, Steve McCatty and Brian Kingman. If I recall correctly, this is about the time teams started to switch from 4-man to 5-man rotations. The A's used 5 starters, but they still put up big innings. Those 5 starters completed (in order), 28, 24, 20, 11 and 11 games. I think that maybe their craziest stat may come from the team leader in saves, Bob Lacey (6 SV). He pitched in 47 games with one start, which happened to be a complete game shutout. Their total staff completed 94 games, whereas the entirety of MLB completed 45 in 2019. I'm not here to rip on today's state of affairs for pitching. I'm just pretty amazed at how much pitching has changed in my time of following baseball. Bullpens are much different than when I was a kid and pitchers throw, on average, quite a bit harder than when I was a kid. I'm not sure that there's a point to this post, other than I wanted to share those crazy stats from '80 and '81.