Physics Guy

Yeah, that's either careless or disingenuous. He had a 7BB/9 last year in 15 IP. In 96 IP the previous year it was 3.6 and 2.3 when he was in the minors.

"I think Odorizzi and Paxton are a step above Walker but all three have good ceilings, while I think Paxton has the safest floor so he’d be my pick if I had a say." I'm not quite on the same wavelength. I would argue Odorizzi has the safest floor as his injury situation last year could easily be considered fluky and not likely to be an issue going forward. Paxton has a higher ceiling, but seems to be a greater injury risk. Walker is a total wild card and should be priced as such. Walker would be my choice if they are looking for a budget addition (5M or less). The others will likely go for (much) more.

How exactly did we get "burned" in that trade? I understand that we got very little from Dyson after coming over from SF, but Jaylin Davis has a 0.167 career MLB avg thus far and will be turn 27 in the middle of the upcoming season. LaMonte Wade stands a better chance of being a MLB regular than Davis does. I wish both Davis and Wade well, but they were marginal extras for the Twins and I'm glad they will get a chance with somebody else.

Hendriks turned the corner when he was released and Toronto stuck him in the bullpen. The following year, 2015, his average fastball velo went from 91.3 to 94.9. the past two years he has bumped that average velo into the 96+ range. The Twins certainly could have given him some time in the bullpen before deciding to cut bait. Hindsight is 20/20 but I wish they had at tried him a bit out there. Sometimes it takes a change of scenery for a player to figure things out.

Because of his down year last year, I'd think he'd be relatively cheap to acquire, especially with the Cubs cutting salary. He might just be a rental player, but that's OK if the cost isn't high. If he has a good year, maybe he's willing to sign for a reasonable contract. I doubt he's going to get anywhere near what he would have 2-3 years ago if he had been a FA. Some of the luster has worn off.

While Cruz has been an integral part of the lineup the past two years, I don't agree entirely that their lineup will suffer without him. Using the committee role could allow our regulars to stay healthy and stay in the lineup. Part of it depends on who they sign instead of Cruz. If they don't bring back Cruz, they can sign somebody with positional versatility. It also would allow for strategic use of Cave and Rooker for lefty and right matchups. It will force Baldelli to be more creative with his lineups, but it doesn't have to be a negative. I've come around to believing the Twins will be fine letting Cruz go if he requires more than a 1 year, 14-15M contract.

I think Cody was pretty spot-on with his original analysis. I see most "important" as meaning players we have concerns about and need to perform at a level they are capable of. #1 would definitely be Buxton for me. I don't know the exact numbers, but the Twins are a different team when he plays. I think it was something like a .700 club with him and .500 without. #2 for me would also be Donaldson. We need him to play 130-140 games at 3B. His defense and patience/production in the lineup would be pretty hard to replace. #3 is where I would diverge from Cody. While Berrios is definitely important to the Twins success, I have little doubt he will perform at least at the level of his last three seasons. I would say either Polanco or Arraez would be #3 for me, mainly due to health. If the Twins do not sign a clear upgrade over Adrianza at Util, Polanco being able to play a healthy 140-150 games at SS is crucial to the Twins success. The same can essentially be said for Arraez at 2B. If he can play 140-150 healthy games at 2B, he should be our full-time lead-off hitter. Neither player currently has a likely replacement on the roster. The LF and DH spots don't concern me as much as they have many options on the 40-man to fill those if needed.

Geez man, you seem a bit tense about the Twins' inactivity thus far. It's early yet and only the Padres have done anything significant. The top 4 FA haven't signed and the market starts at the top. Everyone waits to see what happens at the top before signing. You can blame MLB for the Cruz situation. Until they decide on DH in the NL, he's sitting tight. He has no leverage unless NL teams come into play. Here are my comments on a few items from your first post. Yes, it is possible Berrios and Buxton are gone when they become FA. If they are worth it, I have confidence the Twins will offer a market contract. It's not like they haven't tried to extend Berrios. If you think they can't replace Rosario, I'm probably wasting my time here. He is a slightly above average corner OF and the Twins have plenty of depth there. I'd argue a platoon of Cave/Rooker could produce similar results and I suspect Kirilloff is ultimately the replacement. He has higher upside than Rosario and the platoon combo. Putting Arraez/Polanco at leadoff and Kepler in Rosario's spot in the lineup also takes care of Rosario's spot in the lineup. So Pineda is the most reliable starter the last two years? Sitting for 60 games is reliable? Here are the stats from the last two years: Pineda - 172 IP, 3.92 ERA, 165 K Berrios - 263.1 IP, 3.76 ERA, 263 Berrios will be 27 this year, Pineda 32. Lastly, a straight two-year contract for Cruz scares the hell out of me. I'd offer him no more than 1 year at 15M. If he doesn't take it move on. I'd actually prefer the Twins go after LeMahieu at something like 5/80M. He could spell three positions where he potentially have health issues (1B, 2B, 3B) and could take a significant number of AB at DH. He could be the super utility guy we hoped Marwin would be. I get the feeling the Twins are waiting to see what the market does before investing. I suspect they are one of the few buyers on the market.

Yes to this. I don't think Polanco is a starting SS on a WS-caliber team. As a 2b, sure, but Arraez appears to be the better hitter. I would prefer the Twins sign Semien, Gregorius or Simmons to be their SS and use Polanco and the Util player that many have suggested Kike Hernandez for. I suspect one of the SS will be obtainable at a very reasonable and short contract. I don't like the idea of trading Arraez. He is the "tough out" in the lead off position. I really hope Rocco puts Arraez in the lead-off position and leaves him there. His OBP is nearly identical vs LHP and RHP, but he slugs much higher against RHP.

I think the Twins must do their due diligence on the SS market, if for nothing else because of Polanco's continued ankle issues. He is average at SS on a good day and would be better as a middle infield backup that plays roughly as much as Marwin has the last two years. He would give them insurance for Arraez's health issues as well. The SS for the last 5 world series winners: Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Javy Baez. We need a better SS defensively who can hit as well as Polanco did in 2019. I agree with many of the posters here that the OP's package of Arraez, Lewis and Enlow is a bit much. I think the Indians and Rockies are going to get less than that for a one year rental. Just look at what the Orioles got for Machado.

Mauer had also established a much stronger track record with the bat in the minors. That along with a somewhat lost season last year for Lewis, I'm not sure it would be wise from teh get-go to have Lewis in the majors. Let him show something for the first half of the season.

Also from Gleeman's article: "For instance, Rosario led the 2019 Twins with 109 RBI, one more than Nelson Cruz. That season, Rosario came to the plate with a team-high 412 runners on base, compared to 332 for Cruz. Rosario received 80 more RBI opportunities, yet drove in just one more run. He also received the Twins’ most RBI chances in 2018 and 2020, and the second-most in 2017." https://theathletic.com/2234367/2020/12/02/eddie-rosario-twins-non-tender/ (I strongly recommend signing up for the Athletic if you don't already.)

I think you grossly overestimate Rosario's value as a cleanup hitter. His production was much more a result of opportunity than of some innate ability to drive in runs. This is from Gleeman's article on the Athletic: "Rosario drove in 15.5 percent of runners on base, compared to the AL average of 14.4 percent, and that doesn’t fully account for how many outs he ate up or how infrequently he drew a walk to become an RBI chance for the next hitter. Justin Morneau, the team’s “RBI man” before Rosario, drove in 17.8 percent for the Twins. Joe Mauer, long criticized for low RBI totals, drove in 17.0 percent." Kepler drove in 90 in 2019 while batting mostly leadoff. I see no reason why Max can't hit #4 if they want to separate Cruz and Sano. Even better yet, let Sano bat #4 and Kepler #5. Arraez or Polanco can handle the leadoff spot.

Jose Ramirez should have at least earned a mention at 3B. He had a down first half last year but was en fuego after that. He is arguably the best 3B in the AL Central and finished 3rd in the MVP voting the past two years. The division has an embarrassment of riches at 3B and SS. The reigning batting champ (Tim Anderson) didn’t garner a mention either.

I doubt it. He will make 17.8M this year, almost double what he did last year. Next year he gets to enter FA without a QO dragging his offers down. He could likely be a top 5 FA starter next year.

One of these things is not like the others... Rosario has stolen 36 bases in 5 years and been caught stealing 19 times. Sure, he "can" steal bases, but with that success rate he probably shouldn't be.

Why would they be posturing? Do you really think they would make the offer if they didn't think he might accept it? Why would they waste their time. They chose to limit their offer to 5 years and from what I can tell, the Cubs may have been the only ones to go to 6 years. Not going to 6 years for Darvish wasn't necessarily a bad decision, considering where the Twins were at two years ago. IMO, they are in must better shape to go for it this year. I sense your frustration from several posts, but it's early yet. How many big name pitchers have been signed in early December the past five years?

A cursory look back at the Twins offer was that it was for around $100M, but only five years. The AAV was pretty similar and in the same ballpark as others. It appears the Cubs won out because they gave him 6 years. I would hardly call it a token offer unless you know that they offered it after the Cubs offered 6 years.

In my opinion, the risk of signing Wheeler is nowhere near what the Eovaldi signing was. Eovaldi capitalized on an excellent 12 games after being traded to the Red Sox (and a great posteseason) to get a 4 year $68M contract ($17M AAV). He had a total bWAR of 7.6 the previous 5 season. Wheeler has 7.4 bWAR over the past two seasons. I'd take the "risk" of a 5yr $110M contract for him any day over the Eovaldi contract. IMO the Twins need at least one more pitcher better than Odorizzi to compete in the playoffs. I don't see any of those other three as being that, save for maybe what Pineda showed right before his suspension. If the Twins aren't going to open the pocketbook this year, then I guess they are happy with last year as their best possible outcome. If you fail to cultivate top end starters from the farm you have to spend money in FA, and usually overspend to get what you need.

Yeah, overpaid is subjective. Pretty much any FA top pitcher will be "overpaid", but it's the price of doing business for a team that has failed to develop many SP. The Twins can't afford to shop the clearance rack this offseason. Next year's market looks much weaker.

Wheeler is a top 20 bWAR pitcher over the last two years (7.4 total). He is not an average player. He has pitched 50+ more innings than Odorizzi the past two years. Odorizzi will be paid $17.8M next year. Wheeler will take more than that. We need another high end pitcher who also eats innings (377.2 the past two years). It looks like he will get a 5 year deal between $100 and $110M. Who gives a crap if there is some decline the last year or two? The window is open! Now is the time to spend.

For those questioning Wheeler's worth, it appears that you are in the minority. From an ESPN article polling 15 team execs/insiders: "6. Of the second-tier guys, which of these free-agent starting pitchers would you most want your team to sign this winter: Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler or Dallas Keuchel? Survey says: Wheeler 8; Bumgarner 4; Keuchel 2; Three-way tie 1" Here's a link to the entire story: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28160749/hot-stove-survey-mookie-betts-block-gerrit-cole-crack-300m-mlb-gms-insiders-weigh-in Edit: Okay, so in reading the entire article, there are some detractors. "8. Who is the one player most likely to be overpaid on a big contract this winter? Survey says: Wheeler 4; Grandal 2 (Grandal signed with the White Sox after our survey was complete); Nicholas Castellanos 1; Daniel Hudson 1; 7 respondents declined to answer."

I originally hoped for 5/$90, but with the number of teams in on him I think your number is probably about right. He shouldn't quite get the same as Corbin. Wheeler put up a very similar year to Corbin's second to last year in AZ. Corbin's last year in AZ likely got him a little more per year and the extra year on his contract. If you compare Wheeler and Corbin, their stats are quite similar, with Wheeler missing an extra season following TJ surgery. I'm hoping that big season Corbin had prior to FA is what Wheeler has in him after signing with the Twins.

I see something like this being a realistic offseason for the Twins. I'd prefer Wheeler to Bumgarner and also suspect Odorizzi stays, either at $17.8M QO or something like 3 yrs, 42M. I'd prefer somebody like Hamels or Porcello for the #4 spot to allow an addition to the bullpen.

I don't disagree with this. The Twins have the money, but I do doubt they will put so much money into one pitcher. The problem is, one of them has to want to come here. It can happen, but I doubt the Twins are high on either one of their lists. It's possible that Wheeler and MadBum can be had for not much more than Cole ($40M per season, vs $35M for Cole).