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Physics Guy

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Everything posted by Physics Guy

  1. Physics Guy
    Well how about we ask them to spend savings from previous years from the baseball team? It's my opinion that the Twins have rarely exceeded that 50ish% of revenues that people talk about and more often are well under it. I'm fine with saving some $$ when you are rebuilding and aren't quite ready for young players to take off (for example 2013-2016), but when we are contenders let's use those savings to get over the hump.
  2. Physics Guy
    I think the Twins must do their due diligence on the SS market, if for nothing else because of Polanco's continued ankle issues. He is average at SS on a good day and would be better as a middle infield backup that plays roughly as much as Marwin has the last two years. He would give them insurance for Arraez's health issues as well. The SS for the last 5 world series winners: Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Javy Baez. We need a better SS defensively who can hit as well as Polanco did in 2019. I agree with many of the posters here that the OP's package of Arraez, Lewis and Enlow is a bit much. I think the Indians and Rockies are going to get less than that for a one year rental. Just look at what the Orioles got for Machado.
  3. Physics Guy
    Nelson Cruz played 120 games in 2019 and isn't getting younger. Maybe he plays 130, but he needs days off as well. Plenty of room to get Donaldson some games there as well.
  4. Physics Guy
    Per ESPN: Minnesota Twins communications boss Dustin Morse has been awarded the Robert O. Fishel Award for Public Relations Excellence by Major League Baseball. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30532543/minnesota-twins-dustin-morse-given-fishel-award-pr-excellence-mlb
  5. Physics Guy
    I don't think this is an outrageous idea. I would not move Sano to DH full-time yet. He was passable/average at 1B in his first season. Keep players in the field as long as you can. While I love having Cruz in the 3 spot in the order, I think rotating players through the DH spot to keep the healthy would be a wise option as well. Donaldson is still a stellar 3B, but putting him at DH every 4 days might help keep him in the lineup. Also, using a rotation of Kirilloff, Rooker and Cave at DH wouldn't be horrible either. We have options and aren't over a barrel in the Cruz negotiations. If he insists on more than $15M or two years it might be wise to move on.
  6. Physics Guy
    Galvis and Gyorko would be my preference, although I think Galvis might go to a team like Baltimore that needs a starting SS.
  7. Physics Guy
    It seems as if this discussion is all for naught due to the Phillies owner's proclamation that they are not trading Wheeler. But for the sake of argument, this might not be much different than a FA signing. If there are teams that are really in a big financial crunch, the cost of acquisition (in terms of prospects) might be minimal if the acquiring team takes on the entire financial burden. If the Twins are in good financial shape, these are the types of trades they should be looking to make.
  8. Physics Guy
    In addition, Pineda is only signed through 2021. Berrios is only under team control through 2022. This would add more stability to the rotation. I know finances aren't what they were last year, but if you were willing to go after Wheeler last year, why not this year? They cleared significant payroll from last year.
  9. Physics Guy
    Mauer had also established a much stronger track record with the bat in the minors. That along with a somewhat lost season last year for Lewis, I'm not sure it would be wise from teh get-go to have Lewis in the majors. Let him show something for the first half of the season.
  10. Physics Guy
    They could handle this, but it would likely mean DH by committee and likely only adding one Util and one RP. I'm not sure they should, but it is doable. His salary is only about $5M/yr more than Odorizzi got last year. If they can do it without losing Duran, Balazovic, Kirilloff, Larnach or Rooker, I think they should strongly consider it. Now it sounds as though the reports were erroneous, but these are the types of deals the Twins should be looking at. Find teams that are needing to dump payroll and add quality players with minimal cost outside of absorbing the salary.
  11. Physics Guy
    Buster Olney is reporting that the Phillies are open to trading Zack Wheeler due to the financial crunch caused from the pandemic. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30462167/sources-philadelphia-phillies-open-trade-offers-right-hander-zack-wheeler The Twins were one of the top suitors for Wheeler last year. The main reason the Twins were not able to acquire him was due to his desire to stay on the on the east coast. I know he might not be excited about going to the Twins, but it can't hurt that he would be going to a contender. I don't think the Phillies are contenders any time soon. If the Twins would be willing to take on the whole contract, the prospect cost might not be very high. I'm skeptical the Twins want to add that contract this year, but I would be a strong "Let's go for it" statement.
  12. Physics Guy
    Also from Gleeman's article: "For instance, Rosario led the 2019 Twins with 109 RBI, one more than Nelson Cruz. That season, Rosario came to the plate with a team-high 412 runners on base, compared to 332 for Cruz. Rosario received 80 more RBI opportunities, yet drove in just one more run. He also received the Twins’ most RBI chances in 2018 and 2020, and the second-most in 2017." https://theathletic.com/2234367/2020/12/02/eddie-rosario-twins-non-tender/ (I strongly recommend signing up for the Athletic if you don't already.)
  13. Physics Guy
    I think you grossly overestimate Rosario's value as a cleanup hitter. His production was much more a result of opportunity than of some innate ability to drive in runs. This is from Gleeman's article on the Athletic: "Rosario drove in 15.5 percent of runners on base, compared to the AL average of 14.4 percent, and that doesn’t fully account for how many outs he ate up or how infrequently he drew a walk to become an RBI chance for the next hitter. Justin Morneau, the team’s “RBI man” before Rosario, drove in 17.8 percent for the Twins. Joe Mauer, long criticized for low RBI totals, drove in 17.0 percent." Kepler drove in 90 in 2019 while batting mostly leadoff. I see no reason why Max can't hit #4 if they want to separate Cruz and Sano. Even better yet, let Sano bat #4 and Kepler #5. Arraez or Polanco can handle the leadoff spot.
  14. Physics Guy
    Kepler is that backup. I suspect Kirilloff takes over for Rosario, but that doesn't take care of a RH bat in the OF. Rooker would be OK there occasionally, but I suspect he gets more time at 1B or DH.
  15. Physics Guy
    Jose Ramirez should have at least earned a mention at 3B. He had a down first half last year but was en fuego after that. He is arguably the best 3B in the AL Central and finished 3rd in the MVP voting the past two years. The division has an embarrassment of riches at 3B and SS. The reigning batting champ (Tim Anderson) didn’t garner a mention either.
  16. Physics Guy
    By all means, let's dump a former 1st round pick that just had an .801 OPS in AAA and has been at least two years younger than the average player at every level he's played at. Especially for a team that does not have great depth at SS.
  17. Physics Guy
    I was pondering this the other day as I question whether Polanco can stay at SS. Picking up a SS at the level of Lindor or Story would be great so that we could move Jorge to 2B. I started with thinking of trades involving Arraez and a couple of prospects, but then started wondering if Polanco's contract as a cost-effective SS might be appealing to both Cle and Col. Might they be able to structure a trade for one of them around Polanco and a couple of prospects not named Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol? Both Story and Lindor are only controlled for another 2 years whereas Polanco can be controlled thru 2025.
  18. Physics Guy
    For one year of Ray? I doubt they get that.
  19. Physics Guy
    Apparently the answer was no, not that we made the offer. 7 for $245 wins the Strasburg prize. A little shocking at his age, but not terribly. Makes me think Cole is going for 7/280 or 8/300.
  20. Physics Guy
    I doubt it. He will make 17.8M this year, almost double what he did last year. Next year he gets to enter FA without a QO dragging his offers down. He could likely be a top 5 FA starter next year.
  21. Physics Guy
    One of these things is not like the others... Rosario has stolen 36 bases in 5 years and been caught stealing 19 times. Sure, he "can" steal bases, but with that success rate he probably shouldn't be.
  22. Physics Guy
    Why would they be posturing? Do you really think they would make the offer if they didn't think he might accept it? Why would they waste their time. They chose to limit their offer to 5 years and from what I can tell, the Cubs may have been the only ones to go to 6 years. Not going to 6 years for Darvish wasn't necessarily a bad decision, considering where the Twins were at two years ago. IMO, they are in must better shape to go for it this year. I sense your frustration from several posts, but it's early yet. How many big name pitchers have been signed in early December the past five years?
  23. Physics Guy
    A cursory look back at the Twins offer was that it was for around $100M, but only five years. The AAV was pretty similar and in the same ballpark as others. It appears the Cubs won out because they gave him 6 years. I would hardly call it a token offer unless you know that they offered it after the Cubs offered 6 years.
  24. Physics Guy
    In my opinion, the risk of signing Wheeler is nowhere near what the Eovaldi signing was. Eovaldi capitalized on an excellent 12 games after being traded to the Red Sox (and a great posteseason) to get a 4 year $68M contract ($17M AAV). He had a total bWAR of 7.6 the previous 5 season. Wheeler has 7.4 bWAR over the past two seasons. I'd take the "risk" of a 5yr $110M contract for him any day over the Eovaldi contract. IMO the Twins need at least one more pitcher better than Odorizzi to compete in the playoffs. I don't see any of those other three as being that, save for maybe what Pineda showed right before his suspension. If the Twins aren't going to open the pocketbook this year, then I guess they are happy with last year as their best possible outcome. If you fail to cultivate top end starters from the farm you have to spend money in FA, and usually overspend to get what you need.
  25. Physics Guy
    Yeah, overpaid is subjective. Pretty much any FA top pitcher will be "overpaid", but it's the price of doing business for a team that has failed to develop many SP. The Twins can't afford to shop the clearance rack this offseason. Next year's market looks much weaker.
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