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Physics Guy

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Everything posted by Physics Guy

  1. Physics Guy
    I disagree with both posts with regards to Hicks playing a corner OF position. The average LF in MLB last year had a .702 OPS and the average RF was .768. I think Hicks should be able to be somewhere in that range. He would also bring an above average glove to the corner OF. His OPS may be more heavily weighted towards OBP, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. We have a number of potential power hitters who may not be great OBP guys. Hopefully Hicks balances that. Here are the OPS for the primary LF/RF for each of the playoff teams in the AL: Bal: .694/.729 Det: .912/.765 KC: .783, .710 LAA: .745/.776 Oak: .767/.763
  2. Physics Guy
    Jumping in late, but had to comment. Dick just stated that Joe didn't walk much last year, just 60 times. Career rate is 12.1% and high of 14% two years ago. Last year was 11.6%. Being a broadcaster must be like being a politician, you can say what you want even if it really isn't true.
  3. Physics Guy
    Well, at least now Pelfrey gets his shot and we can boot him to the curb when he most likely sucks. If he doesn't, then we have trade bait.
  4. Physics Guy
    Well Stringer, you got your wish regarding Hicks. I have to think that the Twins feel that Buxton may be ready sooner rather than later. Otherwise I would have thought they would have given CF to Hicks or Rosario for most of the year to see if they could hack it. It seems to me now that if he does well it's just icing on the cake. They seem ready to move on from Hicks. I suspect the AL Central is going to be a battle this year. I think the winner may end up under 90 wins. Chicago added some good pieces and Cleveland appears to be on the rise. I think Detroit is destined to slip this year. Martinez and Cabrera are having health issues and Verlander is a shell of his former self. Kansas City is likely to regress. I have the Twins optimistically pegged at pushing for a .500 record. It's conceivable that it might still lead to 5th place, but I think they will be improved. The pitching staff has a chance to be league average if Nolasco and Santana pitch near their career averages. I see no reason why the offense can't be near what they were last year, despite some candidates for regression.
  5. Physics Guy
    I would agree with this. Focus and attention span seem to get in the way of his tools at times.
  6. Physics Guy
    I'm going to throw my two cents in. I'd like to see Hicks play 3/4 of the time, spelling him against certain RHP with Schaefer. I want to find out if Hicks can be a serviceable player for the Twins over the next 3-4 years. I know it's not the true platoon, but Hicks should not play on the short end of the platoon. If he is in MLB he needs to be playing the majority of the time. Having Schaefer face the tougher RHP could afford Hicks some time to build some confidence. I could see the platoon giving us decent defense and a .650 OPS out of the #9 spot in the order. Without a trade, I think this gives us the best defensive alignment as well. I see many clamoring for Escobar over Hicks based on last year's performance. It's hard to disagree strictly based on performance, but let me throw this at you: Escobar 2012 Age 22 146 PA .214 .278 .260 .537 2013 Age 23 179 PA .236 .282 .345 .628 Hicks 2013 Age 22 313 PA .192 .259 .338 .597 2014 Age 23 225 PA .215 .341 .274 .615 What's to say that Hicks can't do the same thing Escobar did last season? I would argue that minor league stats suggest that Hicks stands a better chance than Escobar.
  7. Physics Guy
    Here's the spin on MLB Traderumors: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/twins-to-extend-phil-hughes.html
  8. Physics Guy
    This is good news. Yes, this does expose the Twins to additional risk, but I don't like the statement that the Twins assume all the risk at the higher value. At last year's production, 13.2 M per season is still a bargain on the FA market. It is a gamble on the Twins' part, but they seem convinced that he has figured it out and they aren't paying big money for a pitcher into his mid-30's.
  9. Physics Guy
    Agree completely. KLaw repeatedly scoffs at people in his chats who suggest giving up big packages for guys with one year left on their contracts.
  10. Physics Guy
    While I lime Zimmerman, I wouldn't trade Dozier and Berrios/Stewart for him. You get one year of control. That's crazy, plus you have to pay big bucks to extend Zim. I had a Twitter chat with a guy that write for SBNation for the Nats. I asked about trading Dozier for Gio straight up. He thought it was reasonable, but slightly favored Nats since Dozier is cheaper. He thought Dozier for Zimm was too much since we only get a year. Why not wait and sign him in FA. They would have Gio for 3 years at 30-35M which would likely be palatable for TR.
  11. Physics Guy
    I took this as meaning that Joe understands that the biggest issue is him being healthy and in the lineup. I would agree with him on that point. If that is what he meant, I see it as encouraging. Hopefully he puts the time in during the offseason to get himself in better shape. I think some forget that he was still dealing with concussion symptoms for a good portion of last offseason.
  12. Physics Guy
    If I remember correctly, Polanco was brought up because he was on the 40 man, and it didn't require the team to waive somebody. He was the best option on the 40 man since Santana had already been promoted (or may have been on DL). Bernier or even Beresford would have been better options, but they would have needed to be added to the 40 man to come up
  13. Physics Guy
    There is no reason to dump Kepler from the 40 Man right now. If you put him on there last year, he should be on there this year. He was much more likely to make it through the Rule 5 draft last year. There are plenty of options filling the 40 Man right now that can be dumped before Kepler. If he hasn't made a dent at AA next year, then maybe they think about it. He has continued to progress through the system.
  14. Physics Guy
    You mean in 2106 or 2017, correct? No way does management move him from A to the bigs this year. Polanco did it for a few games in a pinch and he was a more highly regarded prospect.
  15. Physics Guy
    I don't think anybody was suggesting he was Scott Diamond part 2, were we? Even with regression he is most likely our #1 next year.
  16. Physics Guy
    I would amend this to have Hicks in CF when he is playing and Santana in LF. He at least has more experience out there. I think an occasional Shaefer LF, Hicks CF and Santana SS would be possible as well.
  17. Physics Guy
    Hard to disagree with this. Colabello, Parmalee and Herrmann are AAAA players. Stash them in Rochester if you want to and bring them up in a pinch for a short-term fill-in. If somebody is hurt for an extended time, bring up somebody who has a potential future with the club (Rosario, Sano....).
  18. Physics Guy
    Dyson, Gore, Bourjos? No similarities there? I think there is a place as the 4th/5th OF for Schafer until he proves last year was the anomaly. He had a .677 OPS in Atlanta in 2013, so a .650-.700 OPS in a part-time role is not out of the question. You need guys who can capably fill those spots on a roster. Fuld and Schaefer did a nice job this year. Keep them until they aren't producing. Don't we want Schafer getting 200 AB as the 4th/5th OF rather than Rosario? I want Rosario playing in AA/AAA until he is ready to play full-time in the majors.
  19. Physics Guy
    I don't disagree that this could happen, but there is a significant difference. Jones was trying to break into a lineup on a team that was a yearly contender and had a strong lineup. Parmelee has failed to break into a lineup of a team that has lost 90+ for four straight seasons. That doesn't bode well for his chances. I always liked the guy and was intrigued by his flashes of power and ability to play passable defense in the OF as well as 1B, but I think he is a AAAA player. Stick him in AAA if he clears waivers or let him move on.
  20. Physics Guy
    Great season by Hughes. I might expect some regression, but he would still most likely be our #1. An improvement in the OF defense would help him significantly and help limit any regression. Anything close to this season is a great ROI for the Twins.
  21. Physics Guy
    Don't all teams end up having guys like this that don't pan out and aren't worth anything in trade?
  22. Physics Guy
    From Klaw's most recent chat: Cris E (St Paul, MN) What's your take on Aaron Hicks? Is he still young and figuring things out or is the work piling up enough to draw conclusions? Klaw (1:44 PM) Change of scenery guy for me. Sounds like the org has soured on him a bit, and he might need the wakeup call of a trade to ramp up his own efforts.
  23. Physics Guy
    I just want the Twins to get a player they can afford and can help the team. The rumor I saw predicted 7yrs/$105M. While the Twins SHOULD have money to spend, I don't see Ryan forking over that kind of money. Honestly, I don't see that as a wise investment for the Twins. Even a contract similar to Rusney Castillo's, I'm not sure I would be in. Scouting reports make Thomas sound like another Arcia, big power and average speed at best. I would have preferred they went after Rusney Castillo. He sounds like a much better defensive player, something the Twins need.
  24. Physics Guy
    I have a distinct feeling that no additions will be made to the outfield during the season. If that is true, I propose the Twins put Santana in LF and Hicks in CF for the start of the season. I've advocated moving Santana to SS next year, but I'm starting to feel that won't happen until the Twins get some help from the minors in the OF. That help would most likely be Rosario in LF or Buxton in CF. Until that happens, I would rather see Hicks in CF and Santana moved to LF than putting somebody lke Parmelee in LF and keeping Santana in CF. We need to improve our overall OF defense next year. Parmelee and Schaefer can be mixed in based on matchups.
  25. Physics Guy
    Please clarify. I don't think you typed what you meant.
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