Physics Guy

Wheeler is a top 20 bWAR pitcher over the last two years (7.4 total). He is not an average player. He has pitched 50+ more innings than Odorizzi the past two years. Odorizzi will be paid $17.8M next year. Wheeler will take more than that. We need another high end pitcher who also eats innings (377.2 the past two years). It looks like he will get a 5 year deal between $100 and $110M. Who gives a crap if there is some decline the last year or two? The window is open! Now is the time to spend.

For those questioning Wheeler's worth, it appears that you are in the minority. From an ESPN article polling 15 team execs/insiders: "6. Of the second-tier guys, which of these free-agent starting pitchers would you most want your team to sign this winter: Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler or Dallas Keuchel? Survey says: Wheeler 8; Bumgarner 4; Keuchel 2; Three-way tie 1" Here's a link to the entire story: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28160749/hot-stove-survey-mookie-betts-block-gerrit-cole-crack-300m-mlb-gms-insiders-weigh-in Edit: Okay, so in reading the entire article, there are some detractors. "8. Who is the one player most likely to be overpaid on a big contract this winter? Survey says: Wheeler 4; Grandal 2 (Grandal signed with the White Sox after our survey was complete); Nicholas Castellanos 1; Daniel Hudson 1; 7 respondents declined to answer."

I originally hoped for 5/$90, but with the number of teams in on him I think your number is probably about right. He shouldn't quite get the same as Corbin. Wheeler put up a very similar year to Corbin's second to last year in AZ. Corbin's last year in AZ likely got him a little more per year and the extra year on his contract. If you compare Wheeler and Corbin, their stats are quite similar, with Wheeler missing an extra season following TJ surgery. I'm hoping that big season Corbin had prior to FA is what Wheeler has in him after signing with the Twins.

I see something like this being a realistic offseason for the Twins. I'd prefer Wheeler to Bumgarner and also suspect Odorizzi stays, either at $17.8M QO or something like 3 yrs, 42M. I'd prefer somebody like Hamels or Porcello for the #4 spot to allow an addition to the bullpen.

I will absolutely be surprised if Cole signs for 6 years or less, unless it's a 6yrs/$240M contract. The past two years these were the top pitching FA contracts: 2018 - Yu Darvish 6yrs/$126M 2019 - Patrick Corbin 6 yrs/$140M Neither of those pitchers is Gerritt Cole. With Boras as his agent, I would be surprised if anything under 7yrs/$224 even gets you a conversation. He is going to set the record. Guys like him just don't make it to FA very often. I also believe Strasburg will do better than both Darvish and Corbin. My guess is 6yrs/$150-180M. He is opting out 4yrs/$100M left on his contract. I doubt he does so if he and his agent (is it Boras?) don't think he can at least get two more years at the same AAV.

I don't disagree with this. The Twins have the money, but I do doubt they will put so much money into one pitcher. The problem is, one of them has to want to come here. It can happen, but I doubt the Twins are high on either one of their lists. It's possible that Wheeler and MadBum can be had for not much more than Cole ($40M per season, vs $35M for Cole).

Agree with the majority here, go for both. They can afford both and sign Odorizzi to a 3-4 year contract. We would have a 26 yr old Berrios and three 30 year old starters. Hard to believe Bumgarner is only 9 months older than Wheeler, with Odorizzi in between. Leave the last spot for Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer or Graterol.

I am on board with signing Donaldson if we are unable to get Cole or Strasburg. His defense would help the pitching. I wanted him last offseason. Offer the QO to Odorizzi. I would like to see them sign MadBum and Wheeler as well as . My best guess is that adds about $70-$75M to the payroll. Save $ by trading Rosario for a good RP and have Marwin/Cave/Wade play LF. Kirilloff/Rooker/Larnach are not far off. Lineup: Polanco SS, Donaldson 3B, Cruz DH, Kepler RF, Sano 1B, Garver C, Cave/Gonz LF, Buxton CF, Arraez 2B Donaldson makes the defense and offense better.

Can we please stop with the 109 RBI? Many guys could have done that batting 4th in this lineup. I do not discount RBIs. It is easy to say someone else would have it, but in this lineup everyone hit and others did not drive in 109 runs. Here are his clutch stats from BR - they are amazing Clutch Stats Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ 2 outs, RISP 50 61 56 25 16 7 0 2 26 3 0 5 6 .286 .344 .518 .862 29 0 0 0 0 4 0 .292 115 137 Late & Close 74 103 100 22 34 4 0 7 26 1 1 2 13 .340 .353 .590 .943 59 3 0 1 0 1 0 .338 133 167 Tie Game 115 194 186 23 51 9 1 10 17 1 1 8 35 .274 .304 .495 .799 92 0 0 0 0 1 0 .291 98 117 Within 1 R 135 337 319 51 97 20 2 14 45 3 2 15 56 .304 .333 .511 .844 163 2 0 1 2 2 1 .331 110 131 Within 2 R 135 424 400 66 120 23 2 16 52 5 2 21 68 .300 .333 .488 .821 195 4 0 1 2 4 1 .327 105 125 Within 3 R 136 492 464 76 135 26 2 20 60 7 2 25 85 .291 .326 .485 .811 225 4 0 1 2 5 1 .319 102 123 Within 4 R 136 531 500 82 145 27 2 22 70 8 2 28 94 .290 .326 .484 .810 242 4 0 1 2 5 1 .319 102 122 Margin > 4 R 39 61 59 5 16 4 0 2 7 0 0 2 10 .271 .295 .441 .736 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 .298 83 94 Ahead 82 184 173 30 50 14 1 7 30 4 1 10 30 .289 .326 .503 .829 87 0 0 0 1 3 1 .314 106 118 Behind 95 214 200 34 60 8 0 7 30 3 0 12 39 .300 .338 .445 .783 89 4 0 1 1 1 0 .342 98 122 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=rosared01&t=b&year=2018

This is also why I am starting to believe that Mad Bum might be the course of action. Change of scenery might do him some good. He won't come at a discount, but will be quite a bit cheaper than Cole and Strasburg.

As much as I would love to find the way to get Cole, I have a hard time believing he doesn't resign with the Astros or head out west. I suspect he gets 6yrs/$210 M. I wouldn't be opposed to Strasburg, but he does have a problem staying healthy and will be coming off a prolonged post-season. With that in mind, here's my best guess as to what the Twins might be willing to do: 1) Sign Bumgarner to a 5 yr, $100M contract. One less year and slightly lower AAV to the top contracts the past two years (Corbin 6/$140 and Darvish 6/$126). He could be the Blyleven/Morris veteran signing that got the '87 and '91 teams over the hump. His avg. FB actually increased a little this year and is close to his peak. I don't think he is as done as some believe. 2) Sign Wheeler to a 4yr/$72M or 5/$90M contract. This would have been the second best FA contract to a starter in either '17 or '18. 3) Offer the QO to Odorizzi and see if he will sign 3/$45-48. Total signings come out to be $55-56M per year, within the feasible range. This gives us 4 solid starters and one spot to be filled by the youngsters. Rotation Berrios Bumgarner Wheeler Odorizzi Thorpe/Dobnak/Schmelzer

5/8: 9-1 over Toronto, not needed 5/10: 6-0 over Detroit, not needed 5/11: 1st game, 5-3 loss, warming up in 8th, Twins tie but don't go ahead, bring in Hildy who gives up 2 5/11: 2nd game, 8-3 over Detroit, Twins cruised after the fifth, not needed 5/12: 5-3 loss to Detroit, managed 3 in bottom of 7th to narrow gap, no need to bring in Rogers You worry too much. Rogers and Hildy have been used plenty. Give them a break when possible.

Are you by chance a Packer fan? That's the only way I can understand the A's at the top.

It's not as hard as you might think given Marwin's versatility. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/324/entry-11389-getting-gonzalez-ab/

Yes, Cave is the better player because of the defensive abilities he brings over Austin, but their hitting stats are similar: Cave 283 AB 18BB 102 K .265/.313/.473 Austin 244 AB 19 BB 95 K .232/.287/.480 Austin also has a stronger track record in the minors. With the proclaimed intention to get Gonzalez 500 PA, that makes him the top sub in the OF. This means Cave gets most of his AB as a PH and occasional OF. I would argue that good teams have depth ready to step in when needed. I want Cave playing every day, same with Astudillo. Austin profiles well in the role he would have on this lineup as a PH/occasional DH/1B. I would have no problem whatsoever with Cave as the 12th man, it's just not what I prefer. We will just have to agree to disagree. I don't think it makes much difference either way.

Here is my view: http://twinsdaily.com/blog/324/entry-11389-getting-gonzalez-ab/

When rumors started floating around last week about the Twins' interest in Marwin Gonzalez, I found myself quite surprised. While I still contend that the Twins would be better off spending said money on Keuchel or Kimbrel if they would sign a two or three year contract, it is hard to find fault in adding another above average bat for the lineup. My concern now is how do the Twins find 500 AB for Gonzalez when all of the starting positions are essentially spoken for. I did some digging and believe it can be done without sacrificing continued development of our younger players. Let's start with the assumption that the following players will hold down starting positions followed by the number of plate appearances I would project them to get this coming season. C - Garver, Castro - 650 1B - Cron - 550 2B - Schoop - 550 SS - Polanco - 600 3B - Sano - 550 LF - Rosario - 600 CF - Buxton - 550 RF - Kepler - 600 DH - Cruz - 550 This totals up to 5200 PA for the starters. Last season the Twins tallied a little over 6100 PA not including those taken by pitchers. That leaves 900 PA for the bench. The 650 PA for the catchers is approximately what they totaled for the team last year. Since Gonzalez can essentially sub for any of those positions, I think it is easy to see that he can get to 500 plate appearances this year. Baldelli will need to be creative and use Gonzalez as a true super utility player. Looking at the projected PA, Gonzalez would need to account mostly for PA at 1B, 2B, 3B and OF. I will guess that he will play 3B the most (with Sano slotting in to take away some PA from Cron) followed closely by OF, then 2B and SS. I doubt they will actually play him at 1B much as I would guess that Gonzalez is a better 3B than Sano. If Gonzalez can perform with the bat near past levels while moving around this much it would be of great benefit to the Twins. They can keep players healthy with roughly a game off once every one or two weeks. Adding Gonzalez puts the Twins at 11 position players with the 10 above. The Twins are likely to have 13 pitchers and 12 hitters on their roster. Since Astudillo and Cave both have options, it is likely they start in AAA. In order to get to 500 PA, Gonzalez will need to be the primary sub for the OF so Cave should be in AAA. I like both Cave and Astudillo, but having options dooms them to AAA. That leaves Austin and Adrianza for the final spot. Maybe the Twins keep both at the start of the season and only have 12 pitchers, but it is likely one will hit waivers at some point. My choice would be to keep Austin as a bat off the bench, especially since we have Torreyes likely at AAA as a fallback in case we lost Adrianza on waivers. If Adrianza doesn't get claimed, the Twins have solid depth at AAA in case of injuries, possibly better depth than we've had in some time. The more I look at this signing, the more I like it. Now find a way to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel.

The opener should definitely not be used with Berrios and Gibson. Maybe not with Odorizzi at the beginning, but certainly if he continues to show he can't get through 6 innings. We don't know enough about Pineda at this point. Perez is certainly a candidate. I can't see 4 out of 6 days. Kirilloff should not see the major league roster on this team unless we have a significant injury in the OF or Buxton fails miserably. Otherwise, I can't see the need to bring him up. Mid-May of 2020 is fine by me.

I also wonder if you play matchups. If Odorizzi would normally be the starter, but the team we are facing has a strong LH top of the lineup, open with Mejia or Rogers. I think Mejia could be a strong two inning "opener", especially against a LH hitting lineup.

This is a big reason why I feel we should extend Gibson. There are probably a half dozen SP on the FA market I would want next year besides Gibson. Gibson is a known quantity and was #12 in WAR for SP last year in the American league. No brainer IMO. They should also try to sign whoever is best among Pineda and Odorizzi at the end of the season, assuming they don't both suck. Doesn't the current team have an exclusive negotiating window?

I'd offer Gibson 3yrs at $30-36M. Lance Lynn signed one of the few 3yr (30M) contracts this offseason. He had produced more than Gibson career-wise, but they are on opposite ends of the pendulum swing with Gibson being much better the past 1.5 yrs. The FA market has some talent available in Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale at the top, followed by Verlander (37yrs old), Bumgarner and Porcello. I'm not sure the Twins would be in on any of those. Zack Wheeler was a younger player (30) who should interest the Twins. Most of the FA starters are Gibson's age or older. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/2019-20-mlb-free-agents.html Berrios is the only other one that interests me. He is the most likely bet to maintain his performance IMO. Get him to sign a five year contract to buy out this year, 3 years of arbitration and one year of FA. Might have to overpay a bit, but it would give him financial security and FA for his age 30 season. Sano and Buxton are a no at this point. Their range of possibilities is far to great to extend them. Talk to me again after the season. Rosario and Kepler both have issues. 2nd half 2017 and 1st half 2018 Rosario is an All-Star, but second half he had a .622 OPS. I think he has plateaued. Kepler has the opposite problem, he is maddeningly consistent (3 yrs 95 or 96 OPS+ in a row) and hasn't taken the next step. I wouldn't extend either with Cave, Wade, Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach all potential replacements. I would be interested in Polanco after this season if he can produce a full season at or near .800 OPS. I still think he ends up at 2B and would love to see one of Lewis, Javier or Gordon push him over there.

You should really look up the definition of elastic vs in elastic collisions.

Nope, very much an inelastic collision. I believe muscle does actually help with absorbing blows, such as a collision with a wall.

I would think this is pretty accurate.

Or Chargois or Burdi or...