Physics Guy

As far as having a rotation better than Boston, NYY and Cleveland, I'm not sure that is possible without major turnover throughout the roster. I think it's possible our offense can make up some of the difference. We were behind the Yankees, basically even with Cleveland and ahead of the Red Sox in scoring. With continued improvement in our younger players (nearly every starter), it reasonable that we can be one of the top two or three in the AL. If we get our pitching to allow between 700 and 750, we probably win 90+ games. Cleveland gave up nearly 100 less runs than the #2 team in the AL. What did that get them? In my estimation we just need to get in the top half of the AL to have a good chance. If this year's playoffs have shown anything, even really good pitchers can get ripped.

I would be happy if the Twins signed Alex Cobb for anything at 4/60M or less. I don't think they will win the bidding war for Darvish, but they should at least make an offer. Arrieta's regression the past two years scares me. Contrary to some things I've read here, I prefer Cobb to Lynn, especially if he is the cheaper option. Their numbers appear quite similar and I prefer the pitcher who has thrown in the AL East vs the NL Central. Santana, Cobb, Berrios plus two of Gibson, Meijia, Gonsalves, Slegers is good by me. Then add 1-2 RP's.

Busenitz and Hildy alone means you don't need seven new arms in the bullpen. Outside of a four game stretch in late July where he gave up nearly half of his earned runs, Rogers has been excellent. I think he was overused a bit before Hildy and Busenitz gained Molitor's confidence. I also would be OK with Belisle in the 6th and 7th innings. Would like to see them bring back Kintzler and another guy to battle for closer and 8th inning. I think two new guys could make for a pretty solid bullpen. As an aside, I don't know what to make of Pressly and Duffey. Both seem to have the velocity and secondary pitches to be successful, but I'm about done with giving them chances. Either one could be the last guy in the bullpen, but it sure would be nice if they could figure it out.

So Santana, Berrios and Gibson or Meijia are the only things worth keeping? 7 new bullpen arms is pretty much the whole thing. I couldn't disagree more. I think one additional starter in the mold of Santana would stabilize the rotation and leave some room for young kids to come up. There are plenty of encouraging signs in the bullpen. I think two different pieces, specifically a shut-down closer would do the trick in the bullpen.

By the way, for those who are wondering about Alex Meyer. http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/angels-alex-meyer-sent-down-to-triple-a/

He won't. Only two teams (KC and ChW) had fewer PH appearance than the Twins last year.

vs RHP Polanco Mauer Dozier Sano Kepler Park Rosario Castro Buxton vs LHP Polanco Mauer Dozier Sano Park Kepler Buxton Rosario Gimenez

Granite appears to be a Ben Revere clone. He is older than Revere with slightly higher power. Hopefully he can throw better than Revere. If so, he fits at least as a 4th OF.

I agree, I don't want crappy veterans either. I'm OK with them starting the veterans in April, but kick them to the curb if they aren't doing the job.

From previous posts on other threads, I know you are not happy with the Berrios situation. In a vacuum, I would want Berrios up with the Twins in April. From what I see, I believe they think they have 5 other starters who are better right now. Having Berrios and Meija in AAA to replace one of those five when they falter is more preferable than having Santana, Gibson, May, Berrios and Meija in the rotation to start the year and then no fallback. I'm not sure I see any other options that are ready. As for the other positions, I think many of those changes were made during the season. At catcher you add Castro for Suzuki (getting younger in the process). I can handle Gimenez and #2 because both Murphy and Garver will get more playing time, even if they equally split, than they would with the Twins. 1B and 2B stay the same as last year, but SS and 3B get younger. This year Polanco gets the AB from Nunez. Sano takes over for Plouffe. The OF stays the same, except Kepler is full-time in RF instead of Sano/Kepler. The OF and left side of the IF can't get much younger. In the bullpen, I see Chargois making it. He was on the team last year, but only threw 23 innings. I am also hoping Haley will be added. I guess my point is that the Twins have already added a bunch of young players. I think I am OK with having some veterans on this squad to start the season. Six of what I anticipate to be the starting lineup are what I consider to be young. My issue will be in May if those vets are sucking it up and the FO doesn't start bringing in younger options. This needs to happen in both the rotation and the bullpen.

Correct

Forgot to mention, Haley makes it as insurance against Hughes. We need somebody who can eat innings.

Rotation: Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes and May. Berrios first call up, maybe Vogelsong in AAA if he accepts assignment. Bullpen: Kintzler, Pressly, Belsile, Chargois, Haley, Rogers and Breslow. Duffey either goes to AAA to work on a third pitch or is converted to a reliever (which is what I would prefer). Tonkin becomes AAA filler if he goes unclaimed. Boshers and O'Rourke are filler if Breslow or Rogers struggle. O'Rourke is a LOOGY and a team fighting to get back to .500 can't afford that, especially with the rotation we've dealt with lately.

So was Jerry Ryan a way around the filter? Now I understand why I saw Jerry Ryan referenced in threads early on. I was confused and took it as some type of inside joke/slam. Anyways, I am very happy that Brock joined the founders. While I came here for the articles, I found the forums very enjoyable as well. There was a stretch where the forum was a little rough and I am so thankful for Glunn and the rest of the mods for bringing a level of civility. I came close to losing interest in the site. Now, I probably spend more time on the site seeing how my comments have been received and looking to engage in more discussion.

I guess that depends on your definition of "really struggling". It would be a very nice problem to have (as opposed everyone struggling, besides Santana). I honestly think everyone (Santana, Gibson, Santiago and Hughes) have the capability of being 4.00 ERA starters. The odds of all four of them achieving it, not likely. One of the four will falter. Berrios not being in camp during the WBC likely has him starting in AAA.

I get what you are saying on Berrios, but I would be OK with it if May is ready to start the season in the rotation. I will be shocked if Santana, Gibson, Santiago and Hughes aren't the top four in the rotation. Since May is older, I would rather see him in the rotation than JB. Berrios comes up by May if one of the first four falters or is injured. Conversely, it sounds like May has an option left, so maybe we start May in AAA so he can work his way back into starting again. I think Vogelsong is AAA filler. I see Duffey's future as a setup man and Haley as the long reliever.

Couldn't agree more, especially since Gleeman essentially quit blogging on the Twins (can't blame him). Thanks so much to the creators and all who contribute to great debate that goes on in the forums.

Isn't Palka's floor never making it to MLB? He's probably better than ABW, but not by much. ABW will probably never see time in the majors. I get the sense that Palka will get a chance with the Twins, but he better take advantage of it when he gets it. I doubt he gets to hang around as much as Vargas has. From what I've read about Kirilloff, his defense is not an issue and may be above average, not true of Palka. Kirilloff had a 13.7% K rate vs. 32.7% for Palka. That's a huge difference.

I totally get the disappointment expressed on this thread. It's hard not to be after the past 6 years. I remember a thread two or three years ago discussing the Twins being in contention by 2018. That doesn't seem likely at this point, but not out of the realm of possibility. For me, it all comes down to the development of our young players. That is what this year should be entirely about. We need to figure out who can be part of the solution. At catcher, the FO made a good decision in signing Castro that should help the pitching staff. Either Murphy or Gimenez should be the backup, allowing Garver to play most of the games at AAA. This is a positive change. I've stated my opinion on several threads that 1B & DH should be covered by Mauer, Vargas and Park. Park and Vargas should face the tough lefties. IMO we need to see what they can do rather than sign a DH. No reason to make a move here. 2B and SS is where I am disappointed, but I understand what the FO has done. I wanted an IF of Escobar/Aybar SS and Polanco at 2B. Polanco scares me a bit at SS. Hopefully they can flip Dozier for at least two good prospects during the season. I am happy the Twins are giving 3B to Sano. Keep him at 3B as long as he can be serviceable there. Yes, he will eventually be a 1B or DH. He's too young to concede that yet. I love the defense that an OF of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler can provide. I am starting to be skeptical that Rosario can be a full-time starter, but I want him to be given every opportunity to see if he can. I would have liked a better 4th OF defensively than Grossman, but don't see and RH FA that interest me. I don't disagree that the bullpen could use another veteran, but am OK going with the kids. As KLaw has stated, there probably isn't a team with more MLB ready RP in the minors. Kintzler and Pressly are probably my only locks. Then just run out whoever is producing among Duffey, Tonkin, Rogers, O'Rourke, Chargois, Melotakis, Hildenberger, Burdi and Reed. They have many options. Wouldn't mind seeing them sign Blanton. Obviously the rotation needs to improve. Unfortunately, there wasn't anything available in FA that really moves the needle for me. Jason Hammel is still available and I wouldn't argue with signing him. As bad as they were last year, I think the pitchers they currently have are capable of getting a 4.00-4.50 ERA fairly easily. Santana is likely to have a sub 4 ERA. I think a healthy Gibson throwing to Castro gives him a chance to be closer to 4 than 5. He was arguably their best pitcher in 2015. Hughes will get a chance and if he has regained his velocity can be a 4.00 ERA pitcher. Trevor May's last 9 starts before being moved to the BP he threw 50.1 IP, 47K/10BB and a 3.75 ERA. Santiago had 4 straight seasons below 4 ERA prior to last year. If any of them fail we have Berrios and Meija in AAA. Gonsalves could be ready by mid-season. It isn't sexy, but I think their rotation should give them a chance. Their primary focus should be to acquire high upside SP prospects in any trade. Edit: I expect Haley to be in the pen.

After thinking about the Castro signing, I think he will help Gibson as much or more than anybody else on the staff. Gibson seems to have a habit of nibbling on the edges of the zone and his walk rate increased last year. Maybe Castro can get that one extra strike to help get Gibson our of those big innings and help him be more like the 2015 Gibson. If that is the case, I can see 200 innings from him.

It looks like Feliz is off the board as a possible addition. Sounds like 5.35M for one year from the Brewers with 1.5M in incentives. Seems to me the Twins could have afforded that. Makes me think Twins are going to roll with their internal options, probably across the board. I am skeptical that they make any more changes.

Even getting something close to 2015 would be a huge improvement over most of what took the mound last season.

Is there any value in trading Polanco? Maybe include him with Santana?

They should be looking to trade any of those players at any point during this season, not just if they get off to a bad start.

Can you point me to where I would see these defensive metrics? I'm not sure why the defense should have been so poor in 2016 as compared to 2015. Middle IF is also my biggest concern if Dozier sticks around since it likely means Polanco starts the year at SS. One positive is that all of those young players at least stand a chance at improving their defense. If I remember correctly, Kepler wasn't rated very well. In watching him, I have a hard time believing he won't at least be average in RF.