Otto von Ballpark

More food for thought: in every example I've seen lately, teams that traded or lost closers had no problem quickly replacing them: 2009 Pirates: non-tendered Capps, signed Dotel, flipped him at the deadline for James McDonald, promoted Hanrahan 2010 Nationals: traded Capps, promoted Storen 2012 Athletics: traded Bailey, signed Balfour (and also promoted Cook for awhile) 2012 Royals: declined Soria's option, signed Broxton, flipped him at the deadline, promoted Holland 2013 Pirates: traded Hanrahan, promoted Grilli I haven't done an exhaustive search, so feel free to add more. Obviously, some of these teams dumped their closers because they knew they had ready replacements -- but some of them didn't. Note that the Pirates, Royals, and A's all had to sign closers on the free agent market, but all of them got them on reasonable contracts and either flipped them or got good value out of them. Furthermore, several of these teams -- the Nationals, A's, and Pirates -- quickly improved after dealing their closers, so a lengthy "rebuilding" process is hardly a prerequisite for a closer trade.

I can't speak for the original poster, but in general, the Rangers have a pretty old bullpen, and it's not super-deep past Nathan right now. If there is a trade market for Perkins, it's got to include destinations where Perk will not be the closer, at least not right away.

Detroit is definitely one, although the inter-division angle is a little tricky, probably why I skipped over them. But Benoit is a FA after the year, and Smyly is the only other good reliever there at the moment. Texas does have an older pen, although they are performing reasonably well and some key relievers are still under contract past this season. (Just noticed that Soria is actually younger than Perkins! Although certainly not healthier.) Boston is a little muddled at closer, but they have a pretty good pen overall. Boston also provides two of the more recent closer trade examples: Josh Reddick + others for Andrew Bailey before 2012, Mark Melancon + others for Joel Hanrahan before 2013. Both suggest good potential return for Perkins, although not necessarily as a deadline deal, and it should be noted that neither Oakland nor Pittsburgh has missed the traded closers much! Also suggests Boston may be a little closer-shy on the trade market right now, though.

There's a big difference in "value" between a $9 mil option, or even his 2/$14 mil deal with Texas, and a 3/$42 extension that doesn't even start for a year. Nathan's Twins extension was the kind of closer contract that rarely works out for teams and pitchers not named "Yankees" and "Rivera". Coincidentally, Nathan's extension was signed at age 33. Perkins will be 33 entering his option year in 2016. Want to guess the odds that Perkins will be successful/healthy from ages 34-36?

In 2010, 1+ season of Capps at arb price netted BA's #58 prospect, Wilson Ramos. Although I shudder to use Bill Smith trades in any kind of comp, maybe the Twins overpay helps make up the value difference between Capps and Perkins. Also in 2010, 4+ seasons of Soria at great prices ($4-8.75 mil, 3 club options) allegedly could have netted #4 prospect Jesus Montero. So in 2013, 3+ seasons of Perkins at great prices (~$4 mil per, 1 club option)... what could that realistically fetch? NYY has the #57 prospect, coincidentally another catcher... One problem is, I think Perk's inflated K rate is part of a league trend -- I don't think he's better than Soria was in 2010. NYY's Logan is matching Perk's K rate, albeit more as a LOOGY, and Boston's Miller is topping it, albeit with a higher walk rate. There are a lot of relievers posting awesome K/9 rates. Looking around the league, NYY's "Rivera replacement" angle might be the only real strong interest in Perkins, unless I am missing someone. Arizona? Maybe Cleveland, if they think they have a chance this year? Otherwise, most of the top-shelf teams are set pretty well in the bullpen.

Just like how we extended Nathan in his option year for 3 more years at essentially $14 million per! Again, that's yet another endorsement for trading Perkins now -- even if he's still healthy and good in 2016, it doesn't make financial sense to invest those kind of resources in a closer.

If he hasn't pitched in almost a week, and your team sucks, why not bring him in to pitch the 8th inning in a close game? Or use him in the extra innings game on the road? That's not exactly mop-up work. And while he ranks 3rd on the Twins in WAR, it's again mainly a function of the Twins being bad. He ranks 205th in MLB, or roughly 7th in WAR on an average team. If you're not going to actively utilize him to win games -- not just "protect leads" -- when your team is bad, and you project to have a middling-to-bad team for another two years, and he's only under contract for 3 more years... isn't that a perfect endorsement for trading him?

Soria is actually a pretty good comp. Great performance, great contract, terrible team 2+ years away from contention. They failed to deal him, he got hurt in the first of 3 option years, and they INSTANTLY replaced him just fine by signing Jonathan Broxton, who they then flipped at the deadline and again INSTANTLY replaced him with Greg Holland.

I like Perkins, and his contract and recent performance are both awesome, but I gotta say, if they're not even going to use him, they might as well trade him. He's getting less playing time than EACH of our two light-hitting backup infielders, and barely more than our little-used backup OF/PH spot was getting: Season: Carroll 159 PA Escobar 143 PA Perkins 122 BF Ramirez 95 PA pace when injured He's on pace for less than 60 IP this season, lower than any previous Twins closer (Guardado, Nathan, Capps). Could probably cross-post this to the "Let Gardy Go" thread -- as much as I generally don't mind Gardy, I'd like to see a little flexibility and aggressiveness as his roster conditions change. He's still just saving Perk for those 9th inning leads which never come.

So what is different about Colabello than, say, Randy Ruiz a few years ago?

He's been right around average ERA+ for a starting pitcher, and he hasn't missed much time recently (about a half season in 2011, another half season way back in 2008). A lesser, but healthier and younger, version of Scott Baker.

But 1 and 3 aren't quite their "true" rankings for comparison either. Those are midseason rankings, after higher ranked prospects have been promoted but before the draft and international signings have been added, right? Maybe it's just me, but I will trust these rankings and comparisons a lot more if they can finish strong in 2013 and maintain these rankings going into 2014.

I don't think Duensing has been anything special against LHB since 2010, although I don't have his platoon splits broken down by starting/relief, so correct me if I am wrong. It might be why he's not a LOOGY right now. I'm guessing he either stays and re-signs cheaply or is non-tendered.

As noted in the linked article, Hughes is a free agent after this season. If you have to give up anything more than org filler, there's not much benefit to trading for him now. Maybe if you targeted him for bullpen conversion and wanted to work with him early in that role.

I don't like the obvious tanking -- the "Mark Madsen 0-for-7 on three-pointers" tanking, I call it. But definitely, play the youngsters, the underdogs, the longshots, and see what sticks. I'll still root for them to win. Although the current Twins might lose better when they are playing the more expensive veterans, so it's certainly a difficult decision!

Well, that's just it -- in the run-up to Target Field, with more financial flexibility, they decided to re-sign players and not acquire any new free agents. This is consistent with what they did before, just that they retained a few extra of their own guys (or for a slightly longer term). For example, they extended Joe Nathan at a premium when they previously had let good relievers walk. Without looking anything up, I think they also extended Cuddyer and Morneau a few years extra, given previous precedent. I guess they won't have many quality players to extend over the next few years, but I won't be holding my breath for a big FA acquisition. Their next one will basically be their first.

Not sure if I missed it, but those arguing that this wasn't a good year for a splashy FA acquisition, and that 2016 (our next expected serious contention year) would be better: do you honestly expect the Twins to make a splashy FA acquisition in 2016? It seems they do not do this, at all, ever, simply based on principal, which on one hand is good because they don't make dumb expensive mistakes, but on the other hand it seems like they're not doing part of their jobs because there is talent and value available in the free agent market, and the vast majority of their competitors are taking advantage of it. We had 9 season contention window from 2002-2010, and as far as I can tell, the only new players we acquired by free agency for more than the league average salary ($2.3-$3.3 mil over this period) were Livan Hernandez and Orlando Hudson (both 1 year, $5 mil). And I don't think we signed any free agent for more than 1 season. That's not simply being "selective" about FA acquisitions: that's refusing to participate in the FA market to improve your team. The Twins aren't entirely alone in this (I think the A's, Padres, and Pirates have operated similarly in recent years, although the A's recently signed Cespedes on the international market), but the vast majority of MLB teams do not operate this way. Many like to blame the pre-2010 approach on the Metrodome, but it should be noted that Target Field and its guaranteed new revenue was approved all the way back in 2006. And little has changed since 2010 either -- Willingham's 3/21 and Correia 2/10 contracts are still incredibly pitiful for "most expensive new FA acquisitions in franchise history." Sorry for the ramble, this may deserve its own study and post...

Actually, Duensing hasn't been that tough on LHB since 2010. And as hard as you say he throws, he's always been a ~5 K/9 guy, which is not that promising for a reliever. Oh, and he is going to be second time arb eligible this offseason, and should make a couple million next year. He may well get claimed, but certainly not by every team in baseball. Not that I would endorse waiving him right now.

Important to remember that Parmelee similarly dominated the same league last year, yet is hovering just above a .700 MLB OPS right now. And plenty of other older mashers have posted great AAA lines but could never translate that to MLB performance. Dan Johnson's had a few ~1.000 OPS seasons in that league recently, with great K/BB ratios. Don't get me wrong: I'd love to see Colabello get a shot.

It is strange. Even in 2001, when the Yankees were AL champs and the Twins were only a surprise contender, TK managed a 4-2 record against them, winning the series in both NY and Minnesota. But in 2002, Gardy took over, the Twins were no longer a surprise, and we went 0-6 against them, and the Gardy era Yankee futility began. I often blame the 2002 Mike Trombley game, which didn't help, but we had already been swept at home by NY the previous weekend, so it wasn't all Trombley's fault.

I don't have his relief platoon splits, but overall, he's been just under a .700 OPS guy vs. LHB for every year, 2011-2013. That's right about the league average OPS for all batters against all relief pitchers, so it suggests his platoon advantage hasn't carried over from his first two seasons (when his OPS against LHB was very good, around .500).

Duensing's relief stats by season: 2009: 15 G, 31.1 IP, 5.17 ERA, 73% inherited scored (league average ~30%), average Leverage Index .761 (below average) 2010: 40 G, 45 IP, 1.80 ERA, 14% IS, .880 aLI 2011: 4 G, 5 IP, 5.06 ERA, .912 aLI 2012: 44 G, 57 IP, 3.47 ERA, 16% IS, .980 aLI 2013: 39 G, 29.2 IP, 4.55 ERA, 34% IS, 1.363 aLI This is the first season he's been used as a high-leverage-type reliever. Prior to this year, he had a great half season in 2010 and a good half season in 2012. And all through these seasons, his relief K rate has stayed constant in the 5's. He's not a bad reliever, especially given his pre-arb salaries, but it would be a stretch to say "high-quality MLB reliever" given his sample of actual relief pitching. And an even bigger stretch to say he's been maintaining it for five years, when his actual relief pitching sample is more like two seasons. And I would doubt he's ever been considered among the game's elite lefty specialists -- even in his best season of 2010, he wasn't being used as a lefty specialist. That's not to say he can't be a useful piece going forward, but given his salaries are climbing (will be second-time arb eligible this offseason), there's no downside to giving some higher-leverage opportunities to Thielbar instead.

Agreed. I don't see how he could avoid crossing Doumit's path unless he just let the ball go by. Doesn't even look like he could realistically step up the base line, toward the throw, to cut it off -- it was coming in pretty wide and fast.

"8th inning guy" is the new closer. It's a pretty rigid and artificial construct -- nothing "organic" about it anymore.

Fair enough. I actually haven't been able to watch the team since then, just following on radio. Has there been any talk of a DL stint? If he is legitimately hobbled, to the point where he isn't likely to log an extra base hit, why not DL him for awhile? And get Josmil Pinto to AAA, if not the majors? Would certainly be better than batting such a player 3rd in the lineup, which is what Gardy has been doing lately.