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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Basically, TR took the quantity over quality approach, which isn't a problem, but I think it's pretty clear he fell short in the quantity department. Look at our 2012 starters. Only one guy out of that lot deserved a spot to begin 2013 -- Diamond -- and even he was coming off minor offseason surgery and was due to regress anyway. So TR basically NEEDS four new guys to begin 2013. He only gets three, two with big question marks of their own (Worley collapse and minor surgery in 2012, Pelfrey major surgery and accelerated recovery). And thus, Hendriks was in the opening rotation, Hernandez was in before the end of April, and both Deduno and Walters were in before the end of May. And it was 2012 all over again. Look, I get that we can analyze every pitcher and come up with a reason why TR didn't get him for this particular season, but take the long view here: TR has acquired nothing but duds for free agent starting pitchers for the last 10 years. Kevin Correia is a shining beacon of light in TR's free agent starter record, which is pretty damning. And he's going to need to get better at it if the Twins want to get better. Having an almost completely homegrown rotation (draft or trade), like the Twins did for much of 2001-2010, I feel is more of an anomaly than anything else. And the cupboard is pretty bare right now, even with Meyer and May and some guys in A ball.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Saunders is left-handed, has barley missed a start in his whole career, and has a career ERA+ above average for an MLB starter. Bleh. Yes, not every player could/would sign with the Twins. Colon signed for $3 million. You think he gave a hometown discount of 2-3 million to stay with a team he played less than one season for? What bearing does the collective voice of this internet message board have to do with judging Terry Ryan's baseball acumen? I will never understand why people keep bringing this up. Also, there is certainly no "hindsight" at work with Villanueva -- look at his record. The dude has been a solid swingman for 7 years now. He's really not comparable at all to the other names you mentioned. He would have been a perfect fit as an extra starter for the Twins -- he could always transition to the bullpen if needed. Ever hear of buy low, sell high? Santana's another durable guy with a career ERA+ above average for a starter. It's a one-year deal, for crying out loud.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Specifics: Kuroda, Saunders, Dempster, and Colon were all established, consistent pitchers, and all signed short-term, reasonable priced deals this past offseason -- any of them could have been signed in addition to TR's signings, or perhaps in place of Pelfrey (let someone else sign Pelfrey for his rehab season). This is not hindsight either: I was rooting for a cheap Saunders even after Correia/Pelfrey, and I would have pursued any of these pitchers given any kind of reasonable budget. Villanueva, Feldman, and Bedard likewise signed cheaply, and would have provided much-needed depth for a rotation with a lot of question marks. Ervin Santana was also available on a reasonable one-year commitment in trade for a minor league reliever. BONUS: skip Harden and offer a guaranteed rotation spot to Kazmir (not that I would have had much confidence in the Twins getting him straightened out). There are a variety of options, any combination of which would have reduced the likelihood of us witnessing another AAAA pitcher merry-go-round for the second consecutive season. Now, you can proceed to tell me how TR's $10 million budget for filling 3+ rotation spots was inviolable.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Chen was definitely a big piece for Baltimore, and is the type of quality free agent the Twins have not been able to land. There are potential great values on the international market, if the Twins were not completely soured by the Nishioka experience (or if that signing was not truly representative of the Twins international scouting abilities). Swapping Guthrie for Jason Hammel helped -- imagine watching a pitcher improve after your club acquires him! It does happen, Twins fans! Tillman (longtime prospect) and Gonzalez (out of nowhere guy) are harder to replicate... Gibson and Deduno, perhaps? Although Diamond looked like a good find for a while too... An interesting study, though: worst rotations in the league every year -- did they improve the next year? How?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you have confidence that TR will be successful addressing the rotation this winter? Considering last offseason, his history of FA pitching acquisitions, and the fact we will almost certainly require free agent reinforcements (3 out of 5 spots likely up for grabs, no starters immediately ready in the upper minors)?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Assuming the Pavano/Cabrera/Fuentes deadline deals don't count (actually very good deals for us, highlights of Bill Smith's tenure), perhaps Luis Castillo back in 2006? Technically Travis Bowyer had pitched in 8 games for us in 2005, but that was a prospect for veteran trade, and again it worked out well. John Smiley in 1992 might be the last time we've traded highly ranked prospects for an MLB veteran.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Shields' option is definitely being picked up. The Royals aren't THAT stupid. Garza and Johnson would top my free agent wish list, and Hughes would be a good pickup too for the right price. Here are some good lists of potential free agents after the season: 2014 MLB Free Agents: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com Potential Free Agents for 2014 | Cot's Baseball Contracts
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt, it is difficult to turn over an entire rotation. How about just one spot? Ryan turned over nothing in 2013, outside of calling up Gibson (and grabbing a couple prospects for 2015+, along with what is becoming one of the most infamous Twins acquisitions of all-time, opening day starter Vance Worley). I am pretty sure most posters here could have maintained the Twins rotation ERA and IP rankings from 2012 to 2013. Given his free agency track record, I'm not sure I'm willing to give TR many points for simply treading water and delaying necessary acquisitions.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm pretty sure Gibson has contributed nothing so far in 2013, except hope for brighter days ahead. Pressly's contributions have mostly been mop-up duty which also isn't worth much in present-day value, and overall Arcia was well below average in his MLB time so far. If the defensive numbers are true, Hicks has been a positive contributor, though.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    For what the Twins are in the market for, it's always a poor free agent class. Again, if you limit yourself to one-year deals, for at or below league-average salaries, you're never going to get much value on the free agent market. (And that's not even getting into the Twins strong preference to avoid any injury histories, positive PED tests, or "bad reputations", much less pitch-to-contact/hit-to-contact type players.) And lo and behold, the Twins have never got much value on the free agent market!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    It will be very interesting to read Bill Smith's tell-all memoirs.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    It appeared to some baseball media that KC was successfully completing something. They won 72 games last year. They added something to their below-average pitching in Shields, but they also lost the only impact bat they could have added to their below-average offense. They are on a 77 win pace this year. 72 win clubs making that swap can't expect much better. Now, if they had added a Shields-type in free agency while keeping Myers, that's a whole different ballgame. That's adding talent while not giving up anything in return, except a few dollars out of ownership pockets.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    So because message board posters didn't advocate for them, we don't expect Terry Ryan to notice them either? I'm all for giving TR some benefit of the doubt in regards to hindsight -- injuries happen, guys emerge/regress, you can't sign everyone, etc -- but he is supposed to be a professional talent evaluator. He should be held to a little higher standard than that. And he has never acquired any value in free agent starting pitchers, outside of Tewksbury in the 1990s and Kenny Rogers as a late spring training signing in 2003. Heck, prior to this year, his three most expensive starting pitcher free agents of the past decade were all dumped before completing one season with the Twins. In that regard, I guess 2013 might be an improvement for him, but it's really hard for me to look past: - last in starter ERA again - last in starter IP again - looking to sign 2-3 more FA starters again this offseason He's held the line on a last place pitching staff, that's it.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    A number of those bad/ugly guys on the list are really of the Rich Harden lottery ticket type -- I'd give a GM extra credit for getting value out of them, but they shouldn't be considered here, it's just going to weigh any list of this type to the bad/ugly side. Major league contract should be a requirement.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Given results so far (or lack thereof), Pelfrey would fall in the "bad" list, and Harden in the "ugly" list. So TR restricted himself to spending ~$9 million on starting pitchers acquisitions this season, and so far he's got 1 mediocre pitcher, one bad pitcher, and one ugly pitcher to show for it. The mediocre guy has needed a near career-best half-season to earn his classification. Furthermore, the best recent improvement trend is for the "bad" pitcher, but the one signed beyond this season is the over-performing mediocre guy. And ultimately, Twins starters are last in the league in ERA and IP again in 2013, actually with a slightly worse IP pace than last season. So TR is going to have to do this dance all over again in a few months, with no fewer questions than we had last offseason. I guess if the goal was to be fairly cheap and simply "hold the line" with a last-place starting staff in 2013, TR's mission was accomplished. I'd say, at best, that ranks somewhere toward the bottom of the "mediocre" classification for GMs, arguably in the "bad" category, basically the equivalent of that Roberto Hernandez aka Fausto Carmona performance in your list (but with worse peripherals?). Throw in the Vance Worley acquisition, and TR's 2013 starting pitching grade has to border on ugly (although Meyer and May still have promise in the future, although not much likely before 2015).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously, if you accept TR's self-imposed budget of ~$15 million, and no more than 1 or maybe 2 year deals, his modest acquisitions look a lot better.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Finally, I will re-post my comment that got "lost" in the blog version of this article: I think a primary criticism is that the Twins self-imposed budget and short-term contract limits were unnecessary and not in the best interests of the on field product. So I would hesitate to rely much on those factors in this review.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Also not sure about the list -- not only is Pelfrey absent, but Ervin Santana, Jake Peavy, and Colby Lewis were not free agents this past offseason.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, for all intents and purposes, the Liriano deal was something like 2/12. The "non-guaranteed" portion was due to his non-throwing arm injury, which wasn't expected to be very serious.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    No Pelfrey in the list? Also, I think a primary criticism is that the Twins self-imposed budget and short-term contract limit were unnecessary and not in the best interests of the on field product. So I would hesitate to rely much on those factors in his review.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    So does anyone really believe that, in 15 years as Twins GM, TR has been fully willing to spend big money/resources on the right player at the right time, just like 90% of other MLB organizations.... but there has just never been the right player available at the right time? Whether by free agency, trade, draft, or internationally? Or every time he has done it, he has been outbid?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the trades were that risky - both of those CF had pretty shaky offensive games. Neither looked like more of a long term solution than Hicks.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Matt Lawton had feuded with the Twins front office before -- they had some notable differences in contract negotiations, and he was going year-to-year until free agency (which he was set to get after the 2002 season). I also recall some grumblings from the front office about Mark Redman, a lot of it stemming from his 2001 injury and rehab -- I think the implication was he was taking too long. Your TR quote offers some support for this. But whatever the motivation, the Lawton-Reed swap was definitely one of TR's bolder moves, although it was also fairly prudent, as we had a lot more confidence in our OF prospects at the time than our SP prospects (and rightly so). The Redman-Jones swap was less of a bold move, and perhaps a bit misguided, as Jones predictably made almost no difference to the 2001 season, while Redman did produce a couple more decent cheap seasons. But Redman never had much value, as evidenced by his future trades and releases, and as Hawkins was melting down, the 2001 Twins bullpen was indeed in rough shape. (As compared to 2010, when the bullpen was actually pretty solid but simply lacked a "proven closer" when they traded for Capps)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    He's a lot younger than I remembered (same age as TR). MacPhail had the "old school" baseball family roots, so he wasn't an "outsider" shaking up the game, but age-wise, he was not unlike Theo Epstein back in the day. It's also easy to forget that Tom Kelly is only 3 years older than MacPhail. They were quite the young combo back in '87 and '91. The later 1990s were not particularly kind to either of them... That said, I think the odds that Gardy or TR is dismissed after this year are very low, and the odds that MacPhail returns are extremely low. Ownership may not like losing, but they like these guys, the budget they are following (Smith's spending that they've reined in), and the profits they are producing.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting to bring up Cliff Lee. Ramos and Hicks for Lee would have been tempting, even just for a rental -- Lee had been an epic postseason stud Yankee killer in 2009, and Lord knows it would have been fun to roll the dice again with him on our side. Regardless of how the postseason turned out, I wonder if Bill Smith would still be on the job if he did that Lee deal, rather than the Capps one? At least he would have left a better legacy, I think.
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