Otto von Ballpark

So you're saying there's a chance...

Without wading too deep into this debate, I just want to clarify that analytics and advanced stats doesn't just have to mean WAR, FIP, etc. There was a recent ESPN piece about TrackMan, a radar system used to analyze pitchers - basically every detail about their motion and how the ball leaves their hand. 17 MLB teams are using it, would be curious if the Twins are, or at least using something similar.

The Twins did promote Kyle Lohse from AA, as well as Brad Thomas and I think Adam Johnson. But they were pretty AA crazy back in 2001. Oh, and Scott Erickson back in 1990!

Question: how does the Twins low K rate affect our defensive stats? I guess the more advanced ones should be based on zones and difficulty, quality rather than quantity, but I can't help but wonder if the Twins extreme BIP philosophy is exaggerating some of our defensive numbers, just due to the extra chances Twins fielders are getting compared to the rest of the league...

Hey -- I remember the same author posting an article earlier this year, predicting Dozier would have success due to an improving SO:BB rate and hitting the ball to the opposite field. Yup, here it is: Twins Daily - Why You Should Expect A Rebound From Brian Dozier Hopefully this article's contention about his new pull power stroke holds up better!

I'm torn. I think service time issues are generally overblown, but they make the most difference for a top prospect who projects to be an all-star (Sano, Wil Myers), as opposed to guys who project as more role players (Hicks, Gibson). (On the flip side, option years mean less to the better players, as they are less likely to need them.) But there are few things more exciting than a fast-track prospect who is succeeding... and likewise few things more depressing than a fast-track prospects who disappoints!

Correct me if I am wrong, I'm pretty sure there hasn't been a study anywhere close to definitive on this matter. Wood was a wild flamethrowing 21 year old, it's not unusual to see those have injuries regardless of usage (see Liriano, Pineda, heck even Gibson, etc.). And Wood's usage wasn't that egregious -- basically amounting to a handful of pitch counts in the 120s for effective 7-9 inning performances, a pace he maintained after his surgery for another 4-5 season of effective, healthy starting, not to mention his second career in the bullpen. The Cubs could have restricted his usage more, but they would have been hard pressed to extract more value out of him during his career. Prior's career was definitely more abbreviated, but his most frequently cited evidence of "abuse" is basically limited to a handful of Sept./Oct. 2003 games where his pitch counts hit 130, although he was pretty effective and pitching late into games even through that stretch. (You might be able to argue that his total workload may have ramped up too quickly from limited college innings in 2001, but even then, he was limited to a combined 167 innings in 2002, before 211 regular season + 23 postseason innings in 2003 -- not unreasonable numbers for an otherwise healthy, effective pitcher.) It's kinda crazy that this debate even sprouts up after a game where the starter was on pace to complete it with 115-120 pitches -- that's a very efficient, effective start. The best argument I've seen is that since it was his debut, he may have been too amped up and putting extra stress on the arm, but since basically all MLB managers operate this way (100 pitches = short leash), for all starters at all times, I'm pretty sure it's not any unique circumstances for Albers that caused this decision.

Did you not see my earlier post? I know technically it's only a small difference -- two outs away -- but CG of any kind hasn't been done in a MLB debut since 2002, as far as I know. Shutout debuts are especially rare. I will agree that Gardy's decision isn't a huge deal, but this accomplishment would have been pretty notable, and it would have put Andrew Albers' name into the record book (even if it was just somewhere in the back) -- a chance he may never get again. And for what? Because 105 pitches for 25 outs, followed by a four pitch walk, is somehow beyond the pale?

I think it's a fair point about history. As of April 2011, there hadn't been a CG in a MLB debut since 2002, and there had only been 41 shutouts in debuts since 1928, and very few since the 1960s: CGs since 1928 - Baseball-Reference.com So at 109 pitches, evenly distributed throughout the game, with 2 outs to go and a 7 run lead, against a solidly below average offense, with a pitcher who had already thrown consecutive CGs at AAA with similar pitch counts, I think a little longer leash might have been warranted. In fact, it was almost a perfect storm of conditions to warrant a ~120 pitch outing. (Although in modern MLB, just letting the starter pitch in the ninth inning at all seems to be a very long leash.) And, to be fair, the odds that Albers throws another MLB CG, much less a shutout, are pretty low at this point. Although he probably knew he blew his chance with the 4 pitch walk (his first walk of the night, no less), I'm guessing he wanted to continue. He had a legit shot at the record books.

It made for a much more annoying radio broadcast. After every pitch of the ninth inning, the announcers read his pitch count, and compared it to his past pitch counts this season. Even before the walk. I mean, really? 109 pitches in a game, into the ninth inning is that notable? Talk about how good he's been, how many innings he's gone -- great. But pitch count?

Especially if you are a judge on the beach of his native Aruba.

Agreed 100%. Linking to "slideshow" blog posts should be a violation of Twins Daily policy. And I don't think I'm even kidding.

Pedroia, for his career, has more BB than SO, and his career low season OPS (this year so far) is .785. Dozier has exactly one month where he has done either of those things at the MLB level. Less than a season of defensive similarity is about it for those two. Dozier is probably "Pedroia lite" as much as Jermaine Jackson was "Michael Jackson lite".

Not sure if I see a trend here, or just a one-month blip: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 150] Month BB SO April 6 14 May 3 21 June 15 14 July 6 18 August 2 5 [/TABLE] Outside of June, those BB:SO rates aren't appreciably different from 2012. What is different is he is getting more XBH.

To be fair, Parmelee and Plouffe were virtual non-prospects until they both experienced AAA breakouts. Definitely nice AAA breakouts, to be sure, but that kind of history always give me pause. Interestingly, Dozer was almost the reverse -- he had a good minor league track record (albeit generally older, as a college draftee) before cratering at AAA (and MLB) last year. AAA really is the strangest level of pro baseball, I think.

Offensively, I will note that as good as Dozier's OPS is since late May, he's been around the ~.700 OPS plateau for the last month-plus. He basically ended July with almost the exact season rate stats that he had when he began July, and also where he sits today. And if some SO:BB magic clicked for him in June, it mostly deserted him in July, when he basically repeated his April across all stat categories except with more XBH. That suggests he still might settle in closer to .700 OPS overall, which is a big improvement from last year, but I think I'd need to see a near-repeat of his June to upgrade his forecast much beyond that (i.e. .750 territory). Interestingly, Chris Parmelee reached a similar sub-.600 OPS season low point (although not quite as low) in late May, then had an solid stretch of .350+ OBP and .500+ SLG into July with solid SO:BB rate, just like Dozier. Then that rate and his season trend reverted at about the exact same time as Dozier's, during/after the Toronto series (obviously Parm crashed much harder than Dozier, though). Maybe something to do with the quality of opposition we were facing, that their seasons have tracked so closely to one another? The Twins as a whole posted by far their best monthly OBP and SLG in June this year.

The Twins pitching staff has 300 fewer strikeouts than Boston's, and almost 100 fewer strikeouts than the next lowest MLB team (Houston). Not sure how that is factored into the advanced metrics, but regardless of ground ball rates, Twins players are seeing way more chances in the field than others. I wonder if that isn't inflating the defensive stats of our better fielders (Florimon, Dozier, Hicks) and deflating the stats of our worse fielders (Doumit, Willingham). Also, simply the presence of worse fielders at LF, RF, and 3B might boost the better fielders at 2B, SS, and CF -- every time Arcia or Doumit misplay a ball, it lengthens an inning and increases the likelihood of additional chances for Dozier and Florimon. Again, not sure how all this is filtered through the various metrics, and not to take away from Dozier's and Florimon's performance, but it will be interesting if they can maintain this level in the future, as hopefully better fielders and pitchers are put in place around them.

I think this fact is overlooked by a lot of fans. Gibson was selected a little earlier in the draft, and had a bit better draft pedigree, but even accounting for his surgery, nothing about his pro career thus far suggests he will be any better than Baker or Slowey, probably around a ~100 ERA+ guy overall (although Baker worked in a couple 120+ years). With good health, that can be valuable, but probably only an "ace" on a weaker starting staff.

Look, I don't doubt that their have been free agent busts (although Burnett probably doesn't fit that label, and Lackey could shed the label with a solid finish this year & next). But there have also been unqualified successes -- how good would the Twins of the 2000s have been if they had inked Mike Mussina at the beginning of the decade? Or on the other side of the ball, if they had ponied up for Jim Thome after 2002? Now, I wasn't even necessarily arguing for a big splashy signing for this season. We weren't likely to contend anyway, and maybe the available players weren't right. But it would be nice to eventually witness an actual quality free agent pitcher signing by our GM, even on a short-term cheap contract. It's easy to debate the particulars of why he didn't sign Sanchez, Feldman, or Dempster this year... but the fact is, he's never really signed a Sanchez, Feldman, or Dempster ANY year. Not when we were contending, not when we've had payroll to spare, never. Kenny Rogers, Bob Tewksbury, Mike Morgan... that's about it for his FA starter successes. Correia and Pelfrey are better than Ramon Ortiz or Jason Marquis again, but that's a pretty low bar. Any quality FA signing by TR would give me great confidence we could actual get out of this rut in less than the 5-6 years it could easily take relying on prospects alone.

Actually, as you mention, Lackey is performing great in year 4 of his contract despite coming off a year of inactivity, and Burnett has been strong in years 4 and 5 of his contract for a young and (hopefully) up-and-coming club. And Lowe's 4-year contract may not be a good comparable -- he was 36 years old when it started, basically older than Burnett and Lackey at the conclusion of their respective deals. I don't think anyone here has suggested this Twins team should give a four-year deal to a 36-year-old pitcher. Which highlights something else: good, established MLB pitchers (of a reasonable age) are far more likely to still be good MLB pitchers in 3-5 years than virtually any minor league pitcher. While no player is a 100% certainty to forecast that far out, and they may still have some ups and downs over that time, Anibal Sanchez (for example) is still far more likely to be a positive MLB contributor in 2016-2017 than either May or Meyer in the Twins organization.

Got me thinking, so I wrote a quick script to pull roster sizes from mlb.com: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] team pitchers catchers infielders outfielders designated hitters total ana[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] ari[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] atl[TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]24[/TD] bal[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] bos[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] chc[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] cin[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] cle[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] col[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] cws[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] det[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] hou[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] kc[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] la[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] mia[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] mil[TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]24[/TD] min[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] nym[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] nyy[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] oak[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]24[/TD] phi[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] pit[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] sd[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] sea[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] sf[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] stl[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] tb[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] tex[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] tor[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] was[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] [/TABLE] As you can see, indeed no other team has more pitchers, catchers, OR infielders than the Twins. The only other team with fewer than 4 listed outfielders is St. Louis with 3, and they have Holliday on the DL and Allen Craig subbing (Craig came up as an outfielder although he's now listed as an infielder). Two listed outfielders is a strange alignment, to be sure.

I'm starting to worry that this is the chief goal of the Twins free agent approach -- avoid stupid contracts -- rather than a by-product of a sensible approach balancing good scouting with an aggressiveness to really improve the MLB club. While as a rule, it's good not to rely too much on free agency, or invest too much in free-agent priced players (i.e. contract extensions), there is still good value to be had there for smart teams. And it's hard to find good teams anymore who rely on free agency as little as the Twins have, historically, much less teams that have pulled themselves out of a funk like the Twins' past few seasons without some aggressiveness in free agency.

This is a terrible mischaracterization. At the end of 2012, the Twins had virtually nothing for reliable MLB starters. The only one close was Diamond, who looked pretty flukey after a disastrous 2011 at AAA. After that, it was pretty much Gibson recovering from surgery at AAA and some 2012 draftees. When was the last time the Twins pitching cupboard was that bare? Probably around 1995-1996, and it was a long slow painful rebuild until 2001. If we want to avoid that this time, we need to see some free agent successes, not just MLB placeholders and more low-minors prospects. I'm not at all confident that TR can deliver that, or that the Pohlads are OK with spending on that. So I would have loved to see some evidence to the contrary this past offseason, even if it didn't make 2013 a likely contention year. As it is, we just have to wait another offseason to see if they can do it, and every year spent waiting is more evidence that TR and/or the Pohlads are unwilling or incapable of using free agency to improve the franchise. (Said as a long-time TR defender who is really starting to wonder about this franchise's longstanding free agent issues.)

A "wash" of an offseason that, if its results are repeated in 2014, will likely end up in TR's resignation or dismissal before he gets another offseason attempt to fix the starting staff, right? Whether we call it a "wash" or a "failure" I think we can all agree on that point.

Look, I get that Greinke, Sanchez, and Jackson were out of the Twins league right now. No disagreement there. But in what universe would a Carlos Villanueva signed be deemed "unreasonable"? Joe Saunders? Feldman? Either TR went after these guys and failed, or he opted not to go after them and wound up starting Pedro Hernandez and PJ Walters again. TR was at the helm of an epically bad MLB rotation in 2012, and he's at the helm of another epically bad MLB rotation in 2013, with little hope for change in 2014 unless -- you guessed it! -- TR makes some good moves in the offseason. Sound familiar? I'm not calling for TR's head or anything, and I'm glad we've got some new pitching blood in the minors even if they're still in AA, but I think it's pretty clear that TR either failed to acquire proper MLB pitching talent in the offseason or he under-estimated the pitching talent he needed (or, over-estimated the talent he acquired). I don't see the problem in pointing that out. I think we are all hoping for a different/better approach this offseason, in hopes of better results next year.