Otto von Ballpark
-
Posts
20,669 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
74
Content Type
Profiles
News
Minnesota Twins Videos
2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking
2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
The Minnesota Twins Players Project
2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
-
Twins and GroupThink vs Accountability
Otto von Ballpark replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Maybe off topic, but what product of the international market brought the Twins sustained success in the 2000s? Luis Rivas? The Astros signing Johan Santana? Also, maybe back on topic, the 2000s success was preceded by 8 straight losing seasons (6 with TR at the helm, only one of which topped 70 wins). I'm not sure if that's the best blueprint for a rebuilding process... -
No doubt, but who would offer it right now? Is there any precedent for a 78 ERA+ starter averaging under 5 IP per start signing anything more than a 1 or 2 year contract? I don't think Hughes' potential equals, for example, Edwin Jackson's pre-2013 track record.
-
I sorta get what you're saying: Mauer playing part time at a position means we generally try to patch together the rest of the games at the position, rather than trying to find a quality full-timer. However, the Twins have had open spots before and have not bothered acquiring a quality full timer, so I don't think Mauer is necessarily a roadblock in that regard. Also, you are ignoring the position of DH which also seems pretty open on the Twins. That alone means the Twins could acquire a full-time 1B and still keep both him and Mauer in the lineup almost full-time. Not to mention RF, 3B, and LF -- the position combinations are really endless. I guess if you have a line on another good catcher, you could go for it, but I don't see that catcher out there right now. Pinto and Doumit might be the most realistic options and they both have some flaws right now, probably shouldn't be anything more than part-time MLB catchers.
-
Am I alone in thinking that Hughes will want only a 1 or 2 year deal? He was pretty bad last year. How many free agent starters have ever signed 3+ year deals after a season that bad? That would keep his AAV down, guaranteed. Hughes' record the last 4 years is a lot more like Francisco Liriano's than Edwin Jackson's. Liriano accepted a two year deal, and even Edwin Jackson basically took two offseasons to get his desired contract. I predict Hughes takes a one-year deal from someone. Even a crazy Gil Meche offer seems unlikely for Hughes at this point (Meche was actually average in the preceding season).
-
Silly me: I was thinking he finished in high-A last year. Yeah, unless he starts tearing it up in the AFL, he's headed for Ft. Myers to begin next year, at best.
-
Good point, but it just points again to how the Twins operate. The Twins (especially under TR) basically refuse to participate in any player acquisition that requires bidding and/or isn't capped in some way. Thank heavens the draft and most international signings are capped now (and that Bill Smith was more aggressive internationally) or the Twins might really be behind.
-
Still a very small sample, but Kepler has cooled a bit in the AFL. .594 OPS, league OPS looks to be around .715. But I think the fact that he is in the AFL suggests he could start in AA next year.
-
Those slashlines are basically equal, when accounting for league and park. There's no way that slugging ever comes back -- that wasn't hands, that was a Dome fluke. He had a barrage of HR just over the opposite field fence. I think his line from the last two seasons is about as good as it will get. And it's still very good, which is why I hope this concussion stuff passes.
-
Agreed. That's why I'd like to see Mauer and Pinto basically share C and 1B or DH (assuming Mauer recovers and Pinto keeps hitting), unless another decent 1B/DH emerges or can be signed. I was advocating for something similar back in 2010 with Wilson Ramos. Side benefit: it keeps Butera-type catchers off the roster.
-
I could see Westbrook coming here, on a Correia type deal. Might be a few years too late, though -- Westbrook somehow managed to issue more walks than strikeouts last year. Interesting note on Westbrook -- Cleveland extended him 3 years into free agency at $10 million per, and he was injured for the first two of those seasons. Looked like the kind of contract the Twins fear and avoid. But in the third season, he was healthy but below average, and was flipped at the deadline for a high K minor league starter in Corey Kluber who looked pretty decent in 2013.
-
I'd like to hear the Twins front office say that! Maybe just assign them all to Cedar Rapids so they're closer to Minneapolis too.
-
FWIW, Kepler is playing 1B in the AFL right now, and he did play 24 games there at Cedar Rapids this year (vs. only 30 in the OF). Not sure how much of that is due to injury or crowded outfields, though.
-
That might be a good point, although his most recent missed time is in a pretty special category (concussion). If Torii Hunter had missed the last month of 2007 with a concussion, would you have suggested moving him due to increasing "injury issues" even if he was fully recovered for 2008?
-
This I agree with, but I will add again that most players are unlikely to play more than 150 games no matter what their position. And 600 PA is a pretty high bar. Kirby Puckett is an outlier in playing time, not any kind of standard. Torii Hunter, through his first 9 full seasons, averaged 13 more games and 30 more PA than Joe Mauer. Cuddyer, in his 6 seasons starting for the Twins, averaged 9 more games and 25 more PA than Mauer. Jacque Jones, in his six seasons starting for the Twins (through age 30, just like Mauer) averaged 24 more PA than Mauer. Those are 3 of the most durable Twins of the Gardy era, and Mauer is basically right there with them, within 1 PA per week. Concussion and bilateral leg weakness and all. EDIT TO ADD: I'm beginning all of the above averages with their first full starting seasons, so Mauer 2005, Hunter 2001, Jones 2000, Cuddy 2006.
-
The Twins in general seem cursed in this regard, although it's really just Morneau so far. Koskie's issues were post-Twins, and Span seems to have been unaffected long-term. Hopefully Mauer falls into that latter group too. Koskie was apparently a goalie -- is that position less susceptible to concussions?
-
It's pretty unlikely than any player plays 160 games in a season. In the Gardy era, Hunter did it once and so did Morneau. Most guys top out closer to 150, even under good circumstances. On the other hand, Mauer usually tops 120 games, even when primarily catching. He's averaged 127 games the past 9 seasons, but even that is a bit misleading -- his missed games are usually bunched up, like 2011 or the end of 2013. Outside of the standard weekly game off, he's not chronically missing time. Under normal circumstances, he usually approaches or exceeds 140 games per season, which is comparable to other players. (Hunter, a pretty durable guy, only averaged ~140 over his first 9 full seasons, or even just through age 30 like Mauer) Of course, all of this could go out the window pending his concussion recovery.
-
amjgt: I did this exercise earlier this year -- biggest outside free agent signing for each franchise. Here's what I came up with: CWS Dunn 4/56 (2011) CLE Swisher 4/56 (2013) DET Fielder 9/214 (2012) KC Meche 5/55 (2007) MIN Willingham 3/21 (2012) BAL Tejada 6/72 (2004) BOS Ramirez 8/160 (2001) NYY Teixeira 8/180 (2009) TBR Alvarez 5/35 (1998) TOR Ryan 5/47 (2006) HOU Lee 6/100 (2007) LAA Pujols 10/240 (2012) OAK Cespedes 4/36 (2012) SEA Beltre 5/64 (2005) TEX Rodriguez 10/252 (2011) CHC Soriano 8/136 (2007) CIN Cordero 4/46 (2008) MIL Suppan 4/42 (2007) PIT Martin 2/17 (2013) STL Glaus 4/45 (2005) ATL Upton 5/75 (2013) FLA Reyes 6/106 (2012) NYM Beltran 7/119 (2005) PHI Lee 5/120 (2011) WAS Werth 7/126 (2011) ARI Johnson 4/52 (1999) COL Hampton 8/121 (2001) LAD Greinke 6/147 (2013) SDP Hudson 2/11.5 (2011) SFG Zito 7/126 (2007) So yeah, only the Padres and Pirates are lower than the Twins. It will be interesting to see if that changes with Pittsburgh's recent success. The A's only have Cespedes for more, though, and the Rays haven't signed any expensive outsiders in quite awhile (Burrell, I'd guess).
-
Is this the worst Vikings team of all time?
Otto von Ballpark replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Vikings Talk
That is why TR won't sign free agents: he doesn't want to delay the rebuild. -
Also, isn't marijuana part of MLB drug testing?
-
Correlation does not imply causation. Winning teams may be more aggressive bidders because they are closer to a championship. Also, winning teams likely have more revenue and/or more stable projected revenue (although revenue sharing clouds this).
-
Twins seek rotation help for second straight offseason
Otto von Ballpark replied to ThePuck's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Nice post, Oxtung. To tie it back to the Twins: TR wouldn't pay the landscaping companies either, but he also seems more willing to tolerate poor landscaping. What would your uncle do if it turned out he and his no-good nephew were poor landscapers? Also, TR only gets a Mercedes through a police auction or something. In the event it indeed turns out to be a reliable car, he still junks it after the factory maintenance warranty expires. -
Hocking is actually an interesting comparison for Punto. Age 27-32, both posted a 74 OPS+ with exactly 709 games played for the Twins (weird). But Punto averaged 100 more PA per season than Hocking. And that's not even factoring that Punto missed significant time to injury. Additionally, Hocking piled up most of his PA on those dismal 1999-2000 clubs -- otherwise, he was clearly a bench player. Punto was almost certainly a better player than Hocking, but the 2005-2010 Twins clubs would have benefitted from having Punto in Hocking's role. It would have meant that the team had starters better than that, and it would have improved our bench. Sorry I keep detouring from the discussion about libraries...
-
Sickels: Top 20 Twins prospects for 2014
Otto von Ballpark replied to cmb0252's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Sickels has Duke Welker in the "Others to Watch" group. I might put him in there for his awesome name alone, but his age and numbers suggest Jim Hoey lite, no? (Hoey was on the opposite end of the awesome name spectrum, however) -
I think a positive case can be made for Punto on stats alone. He's a legit MLB utility man, without factoring in any intangibles (although usually not a good starter or supersub). Again, Butera is the better subject of that debate. "The Time of Regular Butera" doesn't have quite the same ring to it, however.
-
I think most every player gives lip service to "wanting to play for a winner". I suspect Morneau will sign with either A) the team that offers the most money, or the team that offers the most playing time so he can boost his value for next offseason, or C) the team closest to his family's home if they are also close on conditions A and B. The team's past or projected record probably won't be a direct factor, except perhaps as a tiebreaker for close competing offers. It's certainly a bigger deal for non-marginal free agents, although I'm pretty confident that money is still the primary factor for them too.
