Otto von Ballpark

Obviously nobody recommends signing a guy for 5 years if you think he will only be good for 2. But that is not the general rule for free agents - I think you find plenty who have 3-4 good years. And the Twins are obviously going to be more selective than certain other clubs, so they could identify the best FA to target. The problem is the Twins reject most potential FA outright.

This franchise has never spent big (has barely spent at all) in free agency, regardless of where they are in any cycle. It's gotten to the point where I almost just want to see a signing to confirm they are willing to do it. Also, in modern MLB with a modern stadium and accompanying revenues, you should always be trying to sign free agents you like, regardless of any cycle. The money is there, and cycles can turn quickly.

Also, I know nothing about him, but Duke Welker is a great name, which is always appreciated on a ballclub.

The Twins still had some leverage: they still controlled Morneau and whether he could contribute to the 2013 Pirates.

Also, in regards to eating Morneau's salary: historically the Twins and TR have not sent cash in trades. I guess they did in the AJ trade, but that's about it, I think. So I think it is safe to say the Twins are philosophically opposed to he practice (and generally opposed to paying guys to NOT be on the team, whether by release, injury, etc). But trades involving cash happen all the time, which suggests that teams can and do derive value from paying cash in a deal. That doesn't address this specific trade, nor does it address how much return value it adds, but I am pretty confident the Twins have left some value on the table in exchange for saving some cash over the years in trades.

John, you are missing some dynamics at play here: 1) The Twins had already made known that they had a fairly high asking price for Morneau, at least as far back as July 2) If the Pirates (or whoever) claims Morneau on waivers, they have a limited time to work out a deal 3) Given their high starting demands were unlikely to be met, the Twins would likely end up pulling him back from a waiver claim, thus preventing the Pirates from ever acquiring him this season, even if they were willing to pay the salary. It's a bit of a transactional baseball paradox: the Pirates had to pass on claiming Morneau in order to eventually acquire him. I give some credit to TR for creating at least some demand where little probably existed, although the return from the Pirates does not look terribly great.

Just curious: have the Twins ever kicked in cash in a deal? I don't recall it ever happening....

What do you mean, "you people"?

It would be fascinating to see the PTBNL process behind the scenes. Interesting that Pittsburgh is apparently paying the full salary. They obviously could have claimed him on waivers for that, but perhaps the Twins high demands at the time scared them off -- they basically figured the Twins would just pull him back and they couldn't get him for any price. Only by NOT claiming him were they able to obtain him. Bit of a baseball paradox.

Max salary cut rules only apply to pre- free agency players. Not Morneau. Although as another noted, Morneau is now unable to get 10-and-5 no-trade protection next year.

The Twins were always free to resign Morneau at any price they could agree to. Maximum salary cuts only apply to pre-FA players, usually in arbitration. As noted by another poster, this does prevent Morneau from getting no-trade protection next year as a 10-and-5 guy.

Sorry I don't have a link, but from a recent ESPN Magazine article: "TrackMan measures the pitcher's arm extension and release height to the trajectory, spin rate, and speed of the ball." Further: "Now TrackMan has gone mobile, allowing scouts to use a portable radar to measure major league players and prospects wherever they find them." It's tricky because the data isn't public etc. but these kind of developments are out there. I am actually really curious if the Twins are into this, moreso than publicly available "metrics"

I think you are confusing this Trackman system with plain Pitch/FX (which mainly tracks the pitch and not the pitcher's full mechanics) and thus selling it short. The ESPN magazine article on it focused on its ability to quantify a pitcher's mechanics, and the consistency/repeatability of those mechanics. It's still a young system, so you'd have to build up your data set, but I could easily see that being helpful in identifying quality pitchers (and the best roles for pitchers -- how much does a guy's mechanics change after X number of pitches?). And while it's not going to predict injuries, mechanics repeatability is thought to be a pretty big factor in a pitcher's injury potential -- quantifying it would be a huge help. Remember, the Twins weren't even relying much on pre-draft medical info until recently -- they could use all the help they can get! Also, the whole Trackman system is now small and portable, meaning it could be set up anywhere by scouts or coaches and used to analyze potential amateur and international prospects. So it gives you Pitch/FX-type capability everywhere, for any pitcher, and adds mechanics analysis on top of that. Find a guy somewhere with similar mechanics and pitch movement as Glen Perkins and you've really found something, regardless of his stats or if he's even pitched much before. I pretty much agree that metrics like WAR, FIP, etc. aren't exactly huge helps over other previously available stats, and they don't do anything for amateur prospects. That's why the place to look is proprietary technology, behind the scenes -- I can even imagine a system similar to the above to analyze a batter's swing. Find an amateur with a repeatable swing like Joe Mauer's and you may have a prospect on your hands, regardless of his stats. 17 MLB teams are using Trackman on pitchers, and I'm sure some of those are also working on new technologies too. There's really no reason the Twins shouldn't be one of those. EDIT TO ADD: And if the Twins are or become one of those, they should be disclosing that fact to fans as much as possible. Keep the proprietary info close to your vest, of course, but tell the fans you're striving to find new ways to get better, faster. And for heaven's sake, manage the PR better than the Jack Goin "stats guy" nonsense.

This is proprietary stuff, but yeah, I would guess that being able to quantify a pitcher's mechanics and "stuff" could easily help identify good pitchers, healthier pitchers, good prospects, and optimal roles for them. This is the kind of thing that should be a no-brainer when you have the worst starting staff in the league. What do you have to lose by trying to gain a little edge in this fashion?

Actually, there is some advanced data on mechanics. Especially for pitchers. Just look up the Trackman system, how it was originally used for golf and now baseball, tracking not just the ball but the pitcher's body. ESPN recently noted that 17 MLB teams are using it. Wonder if the Twins are among those...?

Agreed, I would havd started Parm too. It's just when your fallback options are Ryan Doumit starting in RF, or Clete Thomas (again), or Wilkin Ramirez, and you repeat this scenario at 3B, CF, and all over the rotation, for two years in a row, it feels less like a forward-moving rebuilding process and more like misplaced confidence or erroneous talent evaluation. I suppose some of that is inherent in rebuilding, but I am growing weary of the AAA feelgood promotion cycle.

That's exactly what I was thinking when the trade was made... but I'm starting to strongly suspect the Phillies knew Worley was damaged goods (not that they hid injury, just that he wasn't the same pitcher anymore). And there's a reason too that May dropped off the BA Top 100 and is repeating AA, and the Phillies knew that. Still might be worth the risk on both of them, considering that Revere isn't all that impressive, even when he's batting .300.

I mostly agree with your take, I think Parmelee has frittered away plenty of chances this year... but isn't that partially TR's fault too? TR built the team with the idea of Parmelee being a starter, and Parm's been thoroughly mediocre. I guess, where other people are arguing that TR should be throwing more things at the wall to see if they stick, I'm starting to think maybe a good talent evaluator would just start finding guys that stick without all of this fruitless throwing around.

On one hand, I felt Revere was over-rated and thus expendable, even after the Span trade. On the other hand, it does seem like the Phillies knew what they were dealing in Worley and May. Seemed a bit too good to be true to get two promising pitchers for Revere. I don't think the trade is going to haunt us or anything, but so far, it seems like TR was bested, if just a little bit. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, though.

The Twins front office is still old-school -- I doubt they've even seen Gangnam Style yet.

And actually, the 2011 Twins are probably a better comp for the 1995 Twins. Going off memory, the 1995 Twins had some veteran pitchers who were no longer getting it done, and it suddenly became apparent that the minor league cupboard was mostly bare. The specifics are a little different -- Puckett, Radke, the various hometown veteran farewell tours, etc. -- but the timeline is about right. It was also right after a GM change, so that matches up with post-2011. Rebuilding from within takes time. It took that Twins team about 6 years, even though they had some real good successes in player development (no super-duper-stars until Santana, but a lot of solid MLB starters, in the lineup, rotation, and bullpen).

I wasn't really trying to judge the rebuild. You compared the 2013 team to the 2000 team, which was competitive in the following season. I don't think we're anywhere near that point, and the age/composition of the 2013 MLB roster is proof of that -- we've got old guys and AAA players all over the place. Those guys have to play out their contracts or get replaced, and the replacements need time to get here and develop. So I think we're ~3 years away, at least. Like the 1997-1998 clubs. UNLESS, of course, we take advantage of other avenues of player acquisition. Not sure if TR is willing or even capable of doing that, though.

My initial thought is that Ryan wouldn't have signed Sano. I don't think he has ever gone that big internationally before. Of course, the international risk-averse Ryan also wouldn't have signed Nishioka, so there's that. But then again, he probably wouldn't have signed anyone for more than a token bonus...

Well, I didn't mean it was a perfect comparison. But the 2000 Twins were much younger than the 2013 club. The 2000 Twins, despite some middling stats, already had most of the key position players of the 2001-2004 contenders in place at the MLB level. They also had 4 average or above starting pitchers between the ages of 24-27, all netting 24+ starts at the MLB level that year. I am not getting that impression from the 2013 Twins. Hence my choice of the 1997 club. It was older, like the 2013 club, with one star and some underperforming vets on offense, and the pitching staff apart from Radke and a few relievers was mostly a mess. And while they didn't have a Buxton, the 1997 org had some talent on the farm, but it was generally a few years away like the current Twins (Walker #7 prospect on BA's list, Rivas, Hunter, Ortiz, and Milton all cracked the BA Top 100 before or after that season, plus Cuddyer, LeCroy, and Restovich were their top 3 picks in the 1997 draft and later all climbed into the top 50). Obviously Buxton is cruising to consensus #1 and Sano is near the top, but I think you might be exaggerating how much "elite" depth the Twins have, or anyone can realistically have, in the minors. Minor league talent alone is not going to make the Twins contenders in 2014. I think the Twins best case is competing next in 2016 unless Ryan can diverge from his earlier rebuild and augment with quality free agents (or international signees).

Is Terry Ryan's previous regime a better parallel? Could the 2013 Twins be like the 1997 Twins? They both have one star position player (Knoblauch and Mauer) and not a lot else on offense, except a bunch of guys a few years away in the minors. The 2013 Twins have the better bullpen, but don't have anything like Radke (or even Tewksbury) in the MLB rotation. Acquired in the 1997-98 offseason, could Joe Mays and Eric Milton be like our current Trevor May and Alex Meyer? Taking that view, it could be ~3 more years before the Twins see competitiveness, given reasonable success at building from within.