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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Eddie Guardado simply painted a giant cartoon penis on Terry Ryan's car with watercolors, so it easily washed off. Not only was he re-acquired a few years later, now he's in the Twins Hall of Fame!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the chances are somewhere around zero. Not only are there questions of how amicable the earlier parting was, the Twins generally do not do these kind of deals. Pelfrey was actually pretty remarkable in that they committed decent cash to a pitcher coming off injury, but his recovery rate was regarded as remarkable too. The Twins always want "guaranteed innings" from their starting pitchers and are willing to sacrifice upside to get them. That said, I would endorse it, and I'd love to see it, even if it was primarily a farewell tour for a long-shot comeback.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Curious why we didn't see Thielbar earlier last night? True, we were already down 3 runs in the 7th when Cano came up, but it would have been excellent practice for Caleb to face Cano in that situation, instead of working another mop-up inning later. Also, we're past the point where we really should be loosening the reins on Perkins. Unlike last year when Burton was strong too, Perkins is BY FAR our best guy out of the pen, it doesn't make sense to exclusively save him for ninth-inning leads anymore. This doesn't have to be revolutionary -- he can still come in to start innings, and only pitch an inning per appearance, but he should be making appearances in the 8th inning of close games if the matchups warrant.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It's a pretty big stretch to say this injury really affected Doumit (so far). 5-20 with no XBH since? Heck, just before the White Sox series, Doumit had a 5-32 stretch with no XBH. He was 2-13 with no XBH in the Cleveland series before this injury. Also, I am far from an expert on such matters, but I don't see much egregious there in Gomes' play. It looks like he was set up for the ball in front of the plate, and moved over to foul territory when the throw came in offline. The most notable thing about his play is definitely Doumit's lack of a slide, which is just weird considering his other recent no-slide play at the plate.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree that selective endpoints are dumb, although I admit to using monthly splits -- it's easy, and they are generally those decent-sized 1/6 season chunks. And it tends to remove the bias of quoting these stats right after he has a big game. If you checked your BB-Ref 28 days split yesterday, Parm was at a .721 OPS -- how encouraging is that? It's also his overall season OPS. His "trend" of hitting better than that is still very, very small. That's why I want to see an .800+ OPS month from Parmelee -- it would go a long way to suggesting he could be a .750 OPS hitter overall.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it's specifically how it was being used in this thread (and I think another Parmelee thread) -- hey, Parm had a two-homer game in Cleveland, and his OPS is over .850 or whatever for the last month! Sounds good, except before the two-homer game, his OPS for the previous month was .700. Right around his season OPS. And the following week, after his two-homer game, he slumped and his "last month" OPS was back down near .700 again. So was there ever really a .850 OPS "trend"? That sounds an awful lot like the normal ups and downs of a .700 OPS hitter to me, just like you describe.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    When I heard Jamey Carroll was at 3B last night, I immediately thought Plouffe was back at SS. That would be interesting, although Florimon is currently better than any of our replacement 3B options. If his defense continues at its current levels, I am fine with Pedro. In fact, I would like to see him start more so they could maybe cut down to one futility infielder, although that is not likely to happen unless they find a trade destination for Carroll.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I thougt the thread was pretty dormant between his big weekend in Cleveland and now. Those were the times I recall those "last 28 days" stats posted, sorry if I missed some other times.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not trying to exclude his big games. Just reminding folks that after a big games is not the best time to go parsing his trend stats. I will admit his last month plus has looked good, especially in the K/BB department. His 480 PA pace is higher than Randy Bush ever had. I can't imagine that is suppressing his OPS by 40+ points. Honestly, a Randy Bush career might be a pretty good outcome for Parmelee right now, no?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    But conveniently, Brock, you always quote those "last 28 days" stats the day after Parmelee has 2 extra base hits...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    This is a little more encouraging than Brock's stat -- it's a longer sample and a better OPS number. But again, it's a little misleading, as a day ago, his OPS in this time frame was "just" .834. It also kind of highlights how awful he was before May 23 -- .198/.275/.302 for a .577 OPS. Instead of complaining that he's only on a 480 PA season pace, we should be thankful he's on that pace after such a dreadful start, following a disappointing 2012 MLB season. [TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TABLE]
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    C'mon Brock, you gotta quit quoting a player's OPS over a small sample immediately after the player has a good game. Before yesterday, Parmelee's OPS over the last month of play was .721. Of course Monday's game counts as much as any other, but there is still not much of a trend that indicates Parmelee is a .750 hitter, or an .800 hitter, much less an .833 hitter. No one doubts that Parmelee can occasionally have big games at the plate like Monday, or like he did in Cleveland. But he needs to do those with greater frequency. He's got his season OPS over .700 for the first time since April 13, so that's good. Maybe he's on a slow climb up to .750?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    So if he finishes the year with 480 PA and a .700-ish OPS, you're going to say, "I'm pretty sure he could have posted a .750 with an extra hundred PA"? Parmelee was indeed jerked around in early 2012, when he mostly sat on the MLB bench, but to be fair, he hadn't yet destroyed AAA pitching then -- heck, he hadn't faced AAA pitching at all. He probably profiled more as a Mike Ryan, short-term pinch-hit specialist at that point. He was up and down a bit while he started crushing AAA, but since he came back in August of last year, he's pretty much been a regular. 107 games with the team since then (I left out his 4 game paternity leave) and he's started 74, with the following numbers: 74 GS 319 PA 14 2B 10 HR 27 BB 75 SO .238/.307/.399 .706 OPS That's not unreasonable playing time for a corner guy with his track record and current performance level. For those that like the Plouffe late bloomer comparison, Trevor started only 75 of the 129 team games from his last recall in 2011 until his breakout started in mid-May 2012. And here was his line: 75 GS 322 PA 18 2B 6 HR 30 BB 71 SO .224/.300/.357 .657 OPS
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    .750 OPS would be great, but... Parmelee's been nowhere near a .750 OPS overall guy. A "True" .750 OPS hitter is going to occasionally top that over a month or similar sample of games. Right now, post September 2011, Parm's been a monthly PEAK .750 OPS guy at the MLB level. He's sub-.700 overall since then. True, it hasn't been a ton of PA, but his last 440 MLB PA he's posted a ~.680 OPS. And his stats haven't noticeably improved from last year's sporadic at-bats to this year's fairly regular MLB starts (480 PA season pace). Given the current roster and standings, it doesn't hurt to keep playing him right now, but he's really not showing any evidence of being that .750+ OPS guy that so many of us are penciling him into. I'm curious if people are seeing something beyond the numbers, because the numbers don't look good right now for Chris.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Mike Berardino tweeted that July 10 estimate:
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't look now, but Florimon is now exactly tied with Escobar with a .621 OPS. Their similar profiles continue to be eerily similar... come to think of it, has anyone ever seen both play shortstop at the same time? I don't think so... Florimon has a commanding edge on defense, however, according to WAR.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Update: Parmelee's June OPS finished at .719. He started 4 of 6 games after his big weekend in Cleveland, including 3 of the 4 we played with the DH rule -- basically maintaining his 480 PA season pace. Again, I am not arguing that Parm needs to be sent down -- I think THAT would constitute "jerking him around". I am just noting that he has yet to establish a trend of anything close to .800 OPS performance.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I will add that if you buy an iPhone, back up your device often. I've gotten some older iOS devices that are pretty much worthless now because they don't support the new iOS version, and older versions of apps are not available in Apple's App Store. That shouldn't happen for awhile with a new iPhone, but given Apple's current model, it should happen eventually. (For example, the iPhone 3 models from 2009 are no longer supported by the new iOS version 7, so apps should start drying up for them soon.) You should probably back up an Android device too for similar reasons, but at least Android has channels other than Google's Play Store to get apps.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I have never understood the Wilkin Ramirez love. He's not the worst backup OF in the world but I would be fine with losing him. Hicks getting some extended pseudo rehab at Rochester is fine too. And there really can't be too much debate about Walters getting the boot now, right?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Deduno's so good, he's on there twice!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I was just estimating a 6 month season = 24 weeks = 480 PA at 20/week rate. But I should have added a couple weeks to be more accurate. 477 PA is nothing to sneeze at, when you are a corner player coming off a .671 OPS season and your current season OPS has been hovering around that mark for much of the first three months. I mean, if he's got a .700 OPS now, on a 477 PA pace, what do you think his OPS could be with a 550 PA pace or whatever you think he should get? It's sort of like the people last year who said Dozier was rushed and that's why he hit so poorly -- but the dude had a .600 OPS. He was AWFUL. What could he realistically be expected to hit from the marginal benefit of a few more weeks at AAA? .620 OPS? What I'm saying is, however much a 477 PA pace might be holding Parmelee back, it's got to be a marginal difference. If he's a major league hitter, you will know it from the results if he gets 477 PA for the season.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Parmelee's on pace for 477 PA this year. Are you saying that his hitting will seriously suffer getting only 477 PA, as opposed to, say, 550? And it's "jerking him around" to give him 20 PA a week, as opposed to, say, 24?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Another way to express it, that might make more sense, is OBP plus isolated power (ISO, which is just SLG - BA).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I generally stay out of forum rules/etiquette debates, but it's worth noting that Aaron Gleeman has been a pretty prolific negative voice about the Twins for ~10 years now and he's prominently featured on this site. The main difference is, he's a better writer and he has his own blog (and doesn't wade into forums like this).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    45 games in rookie ball, he posted a .901, repeating low-A for 62 games in 2008, he posted an .881, and repeating high-A for 22 games in 2010, he posted an .893 (most of it in batting average, not slugging). Repeating AA he only hit .801. Prior to 2012, he only had a .791 career MiLB OPS -- not terribly promising for a 24 year old 1B/RF who had yet to play in AAA. But damn, his 2012 AAA season is very intriguing. Basically, his best professional performance ever, by far, and he was only 24 and not repeating the level. Think if Colabello was mashing like he is now, but he was five years younger! Parmelee may have single-handedly earned Brunansky his promotion to major league hitting coach last year (his more modest 2011 improvement at AA also coincided with the hiring of Brunansky). Agreed.
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