Jump to content
Our first free agents ranking has launched, click here to see the top 40+ names in free agency! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    If you look at his record, he's pretty "old school" in that he won't do what he considers an "overpay" for anyone at anytime. I mean, he's been on the job almost 20 years (minus the Bill Smith years), and he's only once retained a player notably beyond when they hit free agency (Radke). By far his "biggest" free agent acquisition have been Willingham and Correia, then it's a bunch of cheap one-year deals and homecomings (Molitor, Steinbach). Even in the draft and international markets, where he's picked up some good players, he's still very conservative. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't have gotten Buxton without the new slotting system keeping bonuses down. Smith's big splash Sano was a relative bargain, but you know TR wouldn't have been bidding for him aggressively -- even though he was a potential future All-Star for a mere $3 million bonus, less than TR paid for one year of Ramon Ortiz a couple years earlier. TR is basically the old-school Calvin Griffith front office updated for the 21st century. He has his own idea of what players are worth, and it's almost certainly far less than what they would get on the open market. Although some of that "cheapness" is certainly ownership directive, by now it's pretty clear that TR is in full agreement with that strategy, or he wouldn't be back for his second go-around.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but how often do guys sign extensions just two months away from free agency? Especially when they are traded just two months before free agency? I think Hughes might be working on the same principle as Liriano last season -- a good month or two could really boost his payday.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    He agreed to a 2/12.75 deal with Pittsburgh. The "$1 million guaranteed" clause was because he hurt his non-throwing arm before they finalized the deal -- it was never likely to affect the original total value. Even if his 2011-2012 struggles were not necessarily the product of Anderson, Gardy, Target Field, etc., I doubt Liriano was interested in signing a similar deal with the Twins. Certainly he would not have been interested last summer, when he still had a few months to help his value.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Additionally, I wasn't suggesting trading for Castellanos and then hoping to set up another deal later. I was thinking arranging something up-front -- a three-way trade like Bauer-Gregorius, or an immediate flip like the Halladay deal. I doubt the Twins would be that aggressive -- it will be very surprising if they trade Perkins at all -- but it's another option if one team is aggressive about getting Perkins now, but their offer isn't a great match for the Twins needs.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock: you're right, there haven't been a lot of prospect-for-prospect deals. The Roy Halladay deal was like this, though -- the Blue Jays got OF Michael Taylor from the Phillies, and immediately flipped him to Oakland for 3B Brett Wallace. Earlier this year, in a 3 team deal, Arizona traded P Trevor Bauer and got SS Didi Gregorius. Also, I was just thinking of prospects who had been flipped quickly, but not necessarily for other prospects -- Andy Marte was flipped rather quickly in this manner (primarily for OF Coco Crisp, who already had a couple seasons under his belt).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, if somehow we managed to get Castellanos from Detroit, but we believe our system is already deep at that spot, we could flip him to another team that feels they have an excess of pitchers or infielders. There have been a few big deals in recent years where prospects were flipped quickly.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Back on topic, speakly purely hypothetically, would folks here accept Castellanos and Rondon in exchange for Perkins?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think using Perkins' contract status (3.5 cheap years remaining) would be a better way to find comps, rather than the time of year he's getting dealt. Now, it's quite likely that there are far fewer guys of Perkins quality and contract getting traded, and that suggests that teams aren't willing to give up good value for them. So we basically agree. But most other deadline deals aren't good direct comparables, because Perkins is more of a long-term acquisition (which is why I think he could just as well be dealt in the offseason).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if folks here are convinced he WILL get a big haul, but if a big haul is available, they'd want TR to take it.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the only way a defensive sub makes sense is if they plan to keep Colabello on the bench for pinch-hitting, and use him for Florimon. But Jamey Carroll could be that sub too. I'd rather give Colabello 3+ AB every day as a starter, and then sub in Richardson or whomever if you need a late game pinch runner or OF defensive sub.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That's seems like a too-high estimate. Having a career year so far, he's only on pace for 2.5 WAR this season. 3-4 WAR reliever seasons are generally pretty epic (like Kimbrel's 16.7 K/9, Rodney's 2012, etc.) -- Perkins is good, but he hasn't looked epic yet. I'd say Perkins range will be more like 7-9 WAR over the 3.5 years remaining on his deal, assuming he continues to be a very good closer. That's 2-3 WAR per season, which is on par with most decent starting position players (like Trumbo) or starting pitchers (like healthy late-career Radke). I'd agree, I'd like more than that in return if we're going to move Perkins, but realistically, that offer might not come. Although holding onto him is not a bad consolation prize, especially with multiple more deadlines and offseasons to shop him, if so desired.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Broxton and League were both rentals (set to be FA at year's end). Capps, Adams, and Uehara were almost rentals (FA after the following season). Perkins is under contract for THREE affordable seasons beyond this one, so it's going to be hard to find good comparables. Also means he might be just as likely to be dealt in the offseason, or next summer...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Perkins should definitely be on the table, but I wouldn't mind waiting until the offseason, or even a future trade deadline, to deal him if the right offer isn't presented right now. Even keeping him through 2016 is fine -- good pitcher, great contract, local guy, nice asset. It will be interesting watching the market to see if the "right offer" is likely.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Just looked him up, and wow, Bernier is not a hitter at all. He's been abysmal for his minor league career outside of Colorado Springs, and that was 5 years ago. We're talking near-Mendoza AVG, SLG lower than OBP, very few steals, and not even a very good K rate. He's been an OK hitter in Rochester this year, but it still seems pretty empty -- basically, 10 extra singles and 2 extra HR over his normal atrocious line. He must play some pretty stellar defense? I'd much rather have seen Richardson, if only to be a pinch runner and defensive caddy for Doumit/Colabello. With Dozier, Florimon, and Plouffe fairly entrenched right now, there just isn't a need for two backup infielders, especially not while we have zero "true" backup outfielders.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I like all of your points, except this one -- there's really no need to "lock up" Fien. According to Baseball-Reference, he won't even be arb-eligible until after 2015 (although I wonder if they are accounting for super-2 possibilities there, but even then, he won't make much in the first year of arb anyway). Lots of relievers go year-to-year -- Guerrier did it, Crain basically did it. I don't think most closers make that much in arbitration either, outside of the "superstar" closers (I think Papelbon got a big award years ago). By the time Fien could be making any serious money, it would be 2017 and you'd likely have more options to replace him.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Plouffe similarly dominated AAA in 2011 but was rather mediocre in MLB until his homer binge last summer. So not only is that transition far from a sure thing, even the mild successes can take time. Plouffe's saving grace was positional flexibility, and a little bit age -- Parmelee's is mostly age. Colabello's only saving grace might be how poorly the big club is playing right now.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Could Pinto now go to AAA? I admit I haven't been following the minor league catcher depth charts...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not so confident Morneau and Carroll CAN be traded, much less will be. Does Hermann's promotion mean anything for Pinto?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    How valuable is Fien, though? I mean, he has been freely available to every MLB team several times already in his career. He was apparently released by the Astros in August 2011 and didn't even sign with the Twins for 4 months. Maybe TR can get lucky and get a Lew Ford for Hector Carrasco type deal, but I wouldn't count on it. Otherwise, I say you might as well keep him. He isn't even arb eligible until after 2015, so if he does maintain a decent performance, he's at least super-cheap for the next few years.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    First off, you are responding to my post, and I never claimed there will be a bidding war. I don't know what the market is, and I would be very curious to hear ideas about that (and especially interested if any specific rumors start cropping up).Secondly, no, it's not that difficult or expensive to adequately replace 60 innings in a bullpen. The Twins have done it many times over. In fact, the only two times I recall when they placed premium value on bullpen innings it blew up in their faces (Nathan extension and Capps trade).Will the replacement be as good as Perkins? Maybe not, but he doesn't necessarily have to be -- Eddie G wasn't as good as Perkins but he was a fine closer on a couple playoff teams. And IF we can get good value back in trade, it might make up for any quality drop-off from Perk.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    For those more suspicious of defensive stats, Hicks and Span have equal oWAR (0.6), Revere is at 1.3. Span is basically hitting like his pre-2008 minor league record suggested. It's really starting to look like 2008-2009 were outlier years for him -- but my, what fun those years were! Revere's minor league record suggests he could hit .300 a bit in the bigs, which is good, because he basically needs to do that to warrant a starting job. Hicks might end up a .250-type hitter, but he's got some OBP and SLG skills so he could easily be more valuable than the other two.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Off-topic, but I actually like Ryan and the Twins front office. Just wish they could (or would be willing to) apply some of their scouting acumen to the free agent market -- there will always be some more financial risk there, but I see no reason why they can't look at "higher-end" free agents and identify some to pursue. (To those who argue we don't know if they do this already, I would wager that our long history of no high-end free agents acquisitions is evidence that they have not taken this approach.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    deleted
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    And there is zero, I repeat zero reason why the Twins couldn't find a solid replacement for Perk's 60 IP a season by 2015.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Additionally, reliever K/9 is up big in the last two years: 2011 AL 7.7, Perkins 9.5 2012 AL 8.2, Perkins 10.0 2013 AL 8.6, Perkins 12.4 This might mean some team could overvalue Perkins a bit (although it could mean the Twins overvalue him and keep him too). Although even if teams don't see the general trend, they may be seeing higher K/9 rates in their own pens and thus could be less likely to seek reinforcements.
×
×
  • Create New...