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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Tim Hudson to the Giants, 2/23, taking out a rumored Arroyo suitor. (The Giants were also rumored, albeit weakly, to be inquiring after Nolasco.) What does that mean for Arroyo's expected contract? Hudson is coming off injury, although not to his arm, but when healthy, he is a bit better/safer than Arroyo, I think.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Twins trade prospects for pitching but stay ~$30 million under budget (no quality free agents signed), I am going to be MASSIVELY disappointed. As good as our top prospects are, this team and organization are not that rich in talent yet -- we can't really afford to be swapping out talent, we need to ADD it.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, because Denard Span to the Nationals was a big secret. It's actually pretty hard to predict trades for just about any team, a lot harder than predicting free agent signings or draft picks. EDIT: Actually, predicting the Twins free agent signings hasn't been very difficult the last few years. I'm pretty sure Pelfrey and Correia were on some "most likely to sign with the Twins" lists last year, and Carroll the year before that. (Willingham was a bit of a surprise, although they did need Cuddyer/Kubel replacements at the time.) Of course, it helps when the Twins restrict themselves to low-demand players with low contract requirements...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Weren't the Twins linked last year to Ryan Dempster for similar years/money, much like Arroyo this offseason? Maybe a little less strong, but I remember kicking the tires on Dempster. And I thought I heard the Twins as possibilities for Edwin Jackson too -- again not as strong as some of these Nolasco reports, but then again, Nolasco is with a Twins-friendly agent and the Twins apparently haven't made a formal offer to anybody yet, so many of these reports sound premature. The Garza talk sounds like lip service, maybe just driving his price up. Johan too, although he at least might have a bit of desperation on his side, which might make him a good match for these Twins.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Big criticism of the Liriano deal: why get two marginal 40-man roster guys? Maybe the Butera trade has thrown off our expectations, but if you're so far from contention that you won't even bother signing quality free agents, I think it would have been better to get a low minors guy when you are dumping MLB salary. Two 40-man fillers for Morneau is a little more understandable, given his salary and waiver considerations, but Liriano was inexpensive and it was only July.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Liriano certainly had upside -- 2010 was very good -- but 2011-2012 he was really quite bad. I mean, in terms of starts/innings/effectiveness, Liriano was for those two years basically Pelfrey 2013, which wasn't all that pretty. And 2009 was another season just like that. And unfortunately, even if the Twins had got him back for 2/14, I am doubtful that we could have coaxed those same results out of him. The Pirates staff was great last year, even with some unlikely performers. I'm not necessarily blaming Anderson, but outside of Diamond's flukey 2012, it's been awhile since we've seen a starting pitcher turn things around or exceed expectations in Minnesota.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    John, are you actually reading these reports? From MLB Trade Rumors on Garza: "However, as of this morning, Minnesota hasn't made a formal offer to any of its free agent targets." Latest on Nolasco: "The club has yet to make a formal offer to Nolasco, tweets ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, who says that the Twins are "not as far along with Ricky Nolasco as multiple reports have indicated." I think there is still a very, very real chance the Twins get shut out in these pursuits. Remember, I don't think TR has ever won the bidding for anyone before -- his only signings have been cheap low-interest guys. Even if there's suddenly a will, there may not be a way to make it happen yet.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Upside? 101 ERA+ last year, four straight years prior below league average (less than 95 ERA+). If a guy's upside is "unrealized potential" you should be getting a discount or shorter term on him, like the Hughes 1-2 year suggestions, not the rumored 4/52 for Nolasco.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Fryer is an odd one. He was a college draftee, and always old for his level, but he actually put up some decent hitting seasons in the minors until he got to AAA in 2011, when his average just plummeted to around .200. Even so, last year he posted a ~.150 ISO and ~.100 "isolated discipline" at AAA which blows Butera out of the water. If his 2013 AAA OPS translates to MLB anything like Butera's, he'd be about a .630 OPS guy. That's Florimon/Escobar (or almost career Punto) territory. Not good for a starter, but not embarrassing for a backup if his defense is legit. Pinto starting with Fryer as his backup, with Doumit or Hermann able to start in the event of a Pinto injury, wouldn't be the worst situation in the world.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Has anybody ever disputed this? Obviously it is preferable to draft cheap good pitchers, but when you fail at that for a number of years, "overpaying" for a free agent or two is much preferred to punting multiple seasons, especially when you have so few financial commitments over the next 4-5 seasons.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, they could still have a home playoff game, right?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB Trade Rumors had Nolasco and Jimenez in the same ballpark for expected contract (Nolasco 3/36, Jimenez 3/39 or 4/52). If you have to go 4/52 for Nolasco (which recent rumors are suggesting), how does that compare to 5/75 for Ervin Santana? Since 2008, Santana's got a 104 ERA+ to Nolasco's 95, with an added 10-20 IP per year to boot. Gives you a little more workhorse/ace potential.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Also a "Super Sopper Water Picker Upper" from the Dome. And some insulation. Own a piece of history!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If you follow the auction link, you will see they are also selling the right field baggy.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Wait, Clete Thomas counts as a "celebrity"?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    His home/road splits were massive in 2010 and a little unbalanced in 2008 but fairly normal every other year of his career. In 2011 he was still at the old stadium and he had a lower OPS against at home. I don't know... I had my misgivings about Edwin Jackson and his 4/52 deal, and he had 5 straight years as a league-average starter (>= 95 ERA+). Before last year, Nolasco had 4 straight years below that mark.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually like Arroyo on a 2-year deal. I think that could be better than Nolasco on a 4-year deal.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The 5/90 offer certainly fits the Twins profile. How the heck do you even negotiate that up to 8/184? Isn't that basically admitting you weren't serious before? Even if you give them the benefit of the doubt that 5/90 was legit in their minds, they would also have to believe 8/184 could easily bankrupt the franchise. There's a lot not to like from that approach. Hunter and Santana certainly didn't like it -- both immediately turned around and got about twice what the Twins offered them. I always thought TR might make an offer like that (and perhaps stick to it) -- a little surprised if that's where Bill Smith started too. The Twins definition of "elite money" is at odds with ~26 other MLB teams. Their definition of "decent money" might be at odds with all 29 other teams, pending the results of this offseason.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer wasn't getting 10/300. Nobody's gotten 10/300, and I doubt a catcher was going to be the first to do it. Pujols only got 10/240 a year later. Even A-Rod's ridiculous Yankee contract was only 10/275 (although it has a lot of weird bonuses in it). 9/243, maybe, if he could get LAD, LAA, NYY, BOS bidding against each other. But even that would have been a tough sell after Mauer came down to earth a bit in 2010.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Hmmm... the rumor here is a lot less strong than the Arroyo one. The 3 year offer is separate from the Twins connection. In addition to Arroyo, "it's possible that they're in on Nolasco" says the writer. MLB Trade Rumors predicted a 4/52 contract for Nolasco earlier.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Your Correia stat gymnastics aren't too interesting without context. How does he compare in this regard to other pitchers? That is, if the average starter's ERA improves by 0.6 if you throw out his worst innings, then Correia isn't that notable or unlucky. Also, if Correia has had this problem throughout his career, it's probably not due to luck either. (In fact, he may have been lucky in 2013 to avoid some big innings) Bill Smith's tenure started with two pretty awful moves (the Santana and Delmon Young deals), but he then did pretty well until the Capps trade and the second Hardy trade (and probably the Butera promotion too). At that point, it was looking pretty clear that he was thinking too much like Gardy or giving too much deference to Gardy in player acquisition matters. At least he was willing to take some risks with money and low-level prospects, though.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    If Mauer hit the open market immediately after his crazy 2009, maybe he approaches $30m annually. But he was set to hit the market after 2010, when it became very clear his 2009 was quite a bit of a spike. The Twins probably got him for the market rate. This thinking by Shapiro suggests they were probably resisting any earlier extension talks. I'm guessing Santana did too -- both wanted to hit the open market at a certain time. What's interesting is the 5/90 offer -- I wonder when that was made? If that was after 2009, that's an incredible lowball, and I'm guessing if Mauer wasn't tied to MN the negotiations would have ended there.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Like, Yankees Pavano-esque? 4 years? I don't see that. More like Twins Pavano-esque (2/16) with a boost for durability/inflation.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    This is pretty much my take on it too. (My "Like" button disappeared?)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Part of me wants to be excited that we're finally going after a decent pitcher making decent money -- but another part of me is very worried that the Twins will see this as their big splash of the offseason, maybe make another cheap Rich Harden type move (or Pelfrey move) and call it a day. 2/24 for Arroyo would be fine, but given the void in the rotation, they really need to get two guys in that price range before they take fliers on injury cases or re-up Pelf. Kazmir at 2/16 would be a solid second move.
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