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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, teams can make more than one Rule 5 pick, right? Obviously you would need the open roster spots, but I am pretty sure the Rule 5 draft runs until nobody wants to draft anymore (or runs out of roster spots). And if any team is going to have multiple open roster spots, it's the 2014 Twins!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    If anything, Dozier's 2013 breakout suggests that his 200 AAA PA the year prior were not that meaningful of a sample. What was more instructive was the 1400 PA that preceded it. Escobar's AAA "breakthrough" last year was 188 PA. Do we trust that, or his 2500 PA prior (including almost 700 in AAA)? His career minor league OPS is now .675, and .688 at AAA (and that includes his "breakthrough" last year). Also, when Dozier struggled in AAA, he almost equally struggled in MLB, which suggests that the level wasn't affecting him as much as something else (swing mechanics? psychology?). In other words, Dozier himself might have been the limiting factor. Escobar raked in AAA while he put up his typical poor MLB numbers, suggesting he was simply taking advantage of the weaker competition (like Parmelee, Colabello, Clete Thomas, etc.).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. I think TR probably meant he was hypothetically willing to give up that pick... just like he often says he is hypothetically willing to spend on free agents. I think his standards for free agents are difficult if not impossible to achieve.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It's been rationalized and explained a lot over the past few years. If the Twins are punting 2014 anyway, then I guess it doesn't matter, but I'd finally like to see some real evidence that TR is able and willing to use free agency to significantly improve the team. It may not matter much to the 2014 club, but it's going to matter someday, and it would be nice to get that little "test" out of the way now.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm still holding out hope that the Vikings make an improbable run to the NFC title game, and somehow wind up hosting it, extending the Dome's life a little bit longer and allowing TwinsFest to be held there one last time.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, but it does present a problem if the Twins decide to "substitute" Pelfrey for those guys, rather than "supplement."
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I am pretty sure the reason the Reds are interested in trading Bailey is that Bailey does not want to sign an extension. I guess that means the Reds asking price for him would be lowered a bit, but I doubt the Twins could get him in exchange for spare parts. Look at what Garza fetched -- the preseason #22 overall prospect (albeit scuffling), a AA starter with 11 K/9, and an A starter with 12 K/9. Plus another MLB ready starter of Liam Hendriks' age (albeit also Liam Hendriks' MLB "success" too). And Garza had been limited by injury for two seasons, and could no longer net a comp draft pick for Texas after the season. Bailey has been healthy and if traded now, could still be made a qualifying offer after the season by his new team (and net a pick if he signs elsewhere). What would be the Twins equivalent offer? Arcia, Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, Jose Berrios? No way the Twins should be giving up that talent (or prospective talent) when they are at least $30 million under budget.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    This isn't the community's belief, is it? I mean, I'm not advocating going crazy on the FA market, but if they come back with the same type of guys (or in Pelfrey's case, the exact same guy) as the last few offseasons (Pelfrey, Correia, Doumit, Harden, etc.), it's going to be very hard to willfully disbelieve the "TR is just cheap" hypothesis anymore, no matter how good the farm system might look right now. That doesn't mean TR is a bad GM or the Twins are doomed forever, but it does mean any rebuild with him at the helm is going to take at least 4-5 years, minimum.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, thank you moderators for changing the name of this thread. I have no problem with posters venting, even prematurely, about the offseason, but for gosh's sake, if you are posting a rumor or news item, make that the thread title! And if you're not posting a specific rumor or news item, find an existing thread to complain in, don't start a new one.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    You have to admit, it is kind of funny that this article was posted the day after the only "new news" was the Twins 2-year offer to Pelfrey. You've got to expect some critical comments from that!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That's why we need Santana back! Lew Ford would probably listen if we called too.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    But teams already have valuation estimates for these players. They're not blind or blank slates until they hear a sales pitch. This is especially true in MLB FA, as opposed to amateur FA like Sano (whose age was questioned until the very end, perhaps beyond). And agents have had years to prepare most of these "facts" for their MLB FA. You think Scott Boras is sorting WAR tables the night before the GM meetings, and heading down to Kinko's after that? To the extent there are persuadable GMs and persuasive agents, those characteristics persist even after an offer has been faxed. I doubt a TR offer today would be met with the response "But you offered too early! We asked you not to do that!"
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Considering the Twins, by most accounts, need to add at least 2 quality SP FAs (not to mention other positions), it's a bit more damaging to them each time one signs with another team, as opposed to most teams who may be only looking for one. Also, ESPN ranks Mike Pelfrey as the #50 free agent. Which suggests that the Twins really need two top-50 guys for the rotation. And top-50 guys (9/50) are signing faster than the bottom tiers (6/144), according to your numbers. I don't really care if the Twins have plenty of time to sign guys worse than Pelfrey. There are 17 SP ranked ahead of Pelfrey on that list; 4 have signed. The Twins needed 2 of those 17. It would be a lot more encouraging if they had one signed already, and just needed 1 of the remaining 13. (Especially since a few of those 13 are extremely unlikely -- Burnett, Kuroda, and probably Ervin Santana based on price, Jimenez maybe not due to qualifying offer.) What do you think are the odds the Twins land 2 of the remaining 13? And how much do you think those odds decrease each time one of the remaining pitchers signs with another team?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, I still don't get this at all. I get that a player may not be actively soliciting offers yet, but you can't stop a team from making them -- and even if you could, I'm not sure what benefit that has. A team isn't going to be more likely to agree to 2/15 later just because they don't fax their 2/10 offer today. By the same token, I don't think a lack of formal offers is necessarily a bad thing -- they could be having a dialog with Arroyo about salary and years without a formal offer. Although with the Twins history in the FA market, it would be nice to see some activity rather than find alternate explanations for their customary inactivity. Agreed its still early, though.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, I suspect that making teams bid blind is the best overall strategy for players/agents. If agents regularly did as you suggested, teams would hesitate to make their best offer right away, as they'd always have the chance to simply top the other guy by $1 (or $1 million) later. I am sure there are special circumstances, generally when a player strongly prefers a particular organization and wants to give them a "last chance" so to speak. Even then, I am guessing the specific offers are kept mostly secret, maybe just a simple "your original offer was low, but you can bid again if you want, or here is our counter-offer."
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Hughes wants a multi-year deal? I thought the conventional wisdom was the opposite. Also, what purpose would it serve to tell teams not to submit offers? The offer is private between the player/agent and team. The player can just sit on the offer if they want, or if the team says "we want to sign you today" the player can respond "we're not signing before X date." But how does not submitting an offer help "drum up interest"? Your Sano example doesn't really clarify this. And I'm pretty sure MLB free agent negotiations are a well-oiled machine compared to amateur free agent negotiations in Latin America.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Crow isn't some Swarzak type who would simply need to be stretched out a little further to start again. The last two seasons, Crow has averaged significantly LESS than 1 IP per game. Maybe it's how the Royals bullpen is being deployed, but it seems like he's even further from starting than your average reliever.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Vogelsong is actually a free agent right now. The Giants declined his $6.5 mil option (and if you look at his 2013 stats, you will understand why).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    As noted above, I think the rumored offer was 4/80. Does that mean TR would be willing to pay a guy $27 million next season? TR actually signed Radke for $9 million per year for 2001, when the Twins total payroll was $24 million. Does that mean TR would be willing to pay a free agent $40 million next season? Even if you accept that TR (or more likely Bill Smith) once thought a particular pitcher was worth 22% of payroll, or 26%, or 38% for Radke, the question then becomes: how often do these players come around? If TR says once every 20 years, I'm not sure how "willing" that makes him. Also, at the same time as Santana, Torii Hunter was apparently offered 3/45. I think that and the Santana offer were made with the full expectation that the player would refuse.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The league's starting pitcher ERA last year was down to 4.15. Actually, the league starting ERA went down by more than the Twins ERA last year, so you could still make the argument they were worse in 2013. But that would be more hair splitting... and depressing...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Steamer was Hugh Morris' source, for his point that even "analytics" expected the Twins rotation to improve in 2013. I was disproving that and pointing out how Steamer was worthless for that judgment (or judgement, for you British types). Agreed we're probably splitting hairs here.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, MLBTR pegged Vargas at 3/28.5. I'd say 4/32 is actually a better deal, compared to that.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins should have such problems! "Oh, I wish these free agent pitchers would stop coming here!"
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Question: if your options were Vargas at 4/32 or no one signed this offseason, which would you pick?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, you sort of hit on it -- Vargas has actually been a really good innings eater. He missed some starts early last year due to a blood clot, but came back just as his normal self, which is a consistent 205 IP league average starter. On the market this year, that level of "innings eating" is probably only matched by Ervin Santana (arguably the #1 free agent pitcher) and Bronson Arroyo (who is 37 years old). The Twins haven't had a starter hit those levels in Target Field besides Pavano. In fact, even with the early career bouncing around he did, Vargas is only 30 years old. He's not dissimilar to Jeremy Guthrie, who got a 3/25 contract at age 33 last offeason (caveat: also from the Royals).
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