Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    There is a spray chart for hits in the upper-right corner of his Statcast page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-kepler-596146?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    They can always swap Thielbar out for another long reliever once the season starts and the need arises too.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    MLBTR also mentions the out-of-options Aristides Aquino of the Reds as a potential target. Plus unsigned free agent Yoenis Cespedes.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Bonus tough break for the White Sox: their 4th outfielder Adam Engel, who projects at replacement level but showed surprising power in small samples last year and this spring, was already expected to miss the beginning of the season due to a hamstring strain.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, not signing a DH or 4th outfielder felt a little "half way" for the White Sox. If the Yankees decide to keep Tauchman, then I guess the White Sox could pick up Jay Bruce or Derek Dietrich from them instead.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if the White Sox will make a move for Mike Tauchman from the Yankees? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/03/yankees-trade-rumors-mike-tauchman-jay-bruce-derek-dietrich.html There's also still Yasiel Puig and, less controversially, Josh Reddick available on the FA market.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    This could be huge. Fangraphs only projected the White Sox as 1 win ahead of the Twins before this injury, and Jimenez was worth 3.2 WAR himself. Their backup outfielders on the roster right now (Engel and Garcia) both project at exactly replacement level, as does non-roster outfielder Nick Williams.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Although, Berrios has been a lot more durable than McCullers, so the extra year might be a wash right now? Put another way, it might have been riskier for McCullers to play out his last year before FA, than it would be for Berrios to do the same next winter.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Wolfson says today that the Derek Law opt-out isn't until August 1st (unless an opportunity in Asia comes along):
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for running the numbers! I'll try another way. There are 29 scheduled MLB games before the AAA season starts. First 29 games of 2020, Kepler had 3 games out of the starting lineup, Cruz 2, Sano 4. That's 9 starts off the bench for those 3 spots, plus 29 more for the starting LF. Of course, we not only have Rooker and Cave available for those starts, but also Arraez as a super-sub. Plus one of Garver/Jeffers might benefit from a few additional PAs too. Maybe you have a distribution as follows: Rooker 20 Cave 8 Arraez 8 Garver/Jeffers 2 You can quibble with this on the margins (and tossing a couple starts to Astudillo on the end of the bench would do just that), but trying to get a meaningful number of PAs for Kirilloff in this mix would defeat the purpose of rostering Rooker at all, and also likely negate one benefit of the Simmons signing (which allowed Arraez to become a super-sub).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Starting Happ on the IL would just set him back more, no? There's no official rehab games to pitch, so it would just be more simulated games in extended spring training for those 10 days. With an 8 or 9 man bullpen, guys with options, and a stretched-out Dobnak likely to make the club, they don't even need Happ -- or anyone -- to be at full innings-eating capacity in the first week of the season.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    After a guy has good spring stats, it can be natural for team officials to give them credit for it. But it doesn't really tell us what kind of factor those stats played in their decision -- especially when that decision was mostly a foregone conclusion anyway. Here are some news reports from the beginning of that spring: March 3, 2004, the day before the first spring training game, Jim Souhan referred to him as "Joe Nathan, the Twins' new closer." March 4, 2004, previewing the first spring training game, LaVelle E. Neal III wrote "Joe Nathan, expected to be the closer" March 6, 2004, Patrick Reusse wrote "Plan A is Joe Nathan as the closer and J.C. Romero setting up." There was no need to make it official or even commit to the decision privately until the end of spring training, since there's no such thing as a "closer" during spring training games and especially since Nathan was new to the organization and new to closing -- but that doesn't mean Joe Nathan needed that particular spring training stat line to get the job.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    So tickets for the first 17 home games apparently went on sale at 10 AM today (Thursday, March 25). Anybody here buy some? Or try to buy?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If they want to keep Dobnak stretched out, they could use him out of the pen on a fairly set schedule. For example, they could plan to piggyback him with Happ or Shoemaker, throwing at least 3-4 innings after the starter leaves. The pen is big enough, and enough guys have options, that they can always shuttle guys back and forth with St. Paul if there's a short start or injury or something, so they're not locked into any particular configuration.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB.com actually has spring training stats dating back to 2006, selectable in drop-down menus on both the team stat pages and the individual player pages, so we can check it out! https://www.mlb.com/player/max-kepler-596146 Kepler's career spring training line is poor overall, at .204/.268/.292 for a .560 OPS in 272 PA. And actually each individual spring has been fairly poor too, with the exception of 2019. In spring 2019, he had a .957 OPS and 3 HR; he's never hit a spring HR outside of that year, and never topped a .601 OPS otherwise either. 2019 also happened to be his best regular-season performance at the plate, with 36 HR and a 123 OPS+ (and also the year when the league as a whole hit a high-water mark for HR, prompting some changes in the baseball now). I still don't think the spring samples are large enough to be particularly meaningful. Maybe this spring is a minor harbinger against a superstar breakout, but still no reason Kepler shouldn't be able to hit his ZiPS projection for 2021 (113 wRC+, 2.8 WAR).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That could have been a valid approach, especially if Kirilloff had forced the issue. But the approach they chose for now appears valid too. We've already made investments in Kepler, Sano, and Cruz, and probably want to play them as much as possible while they are healthy. Plus there's value in giving a full evaluation to Rooker, to help gauge his place on the roster in the future. And while their roles aren't critical, there's still value in evaluating Cave, Astudillo, and the 8th/9th reliever in limited time that will inform 26-man/40-man decisions going forward. If someone gets hurt and/or more playing time opens up, we can always call up Kirilloff anytime we want -- there's nothing irreversible about this approach.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess the question is, to what degree is Vaughn overrated, and to what degree are those numbers overrated?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I take it you didn't read the linked article? The team has all but said he's going to be their opening day DH.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    This Vaughn promotion reminds me a bit of Gordon Beckham -- although even he had a couple months at AA/AAA before getting the call to MLB in June 2009. And of course, after a great rookie year, he regressed quite a bit after that.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Kris Bryant in his draft year put up wRC+ figures of 209 and 212, and then went to the AFL where he posted a 1.184 OPS. He had a higher K rate and lower walk rate, but that's the kind of overall production you'd like to see from a low-minors player before jumping straight to MLB!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    His inexperience is definitely cause for concern, but these stats aren't too bad. Both of the minor leagues he played in were extreme pitcher's leagues with league OPSes around .680 -- by comparison, the MLB OPS that year was .758 (and AAA was even higher). Adjusting for league, Fangraphs pegs those performances around a 129 wRC+. Of course, that alone doesn't warrant a jump straight to MLB, even if it's decent for his first introduction to pro ball (coming after a full college season which began back in February).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's a nice article on Vaughn -- and the challenges of evaluating a first baseman -- from before the 2019 draft: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/5/30/18645138/mlb-draft-andrew-vaughn-first-baseman-cal The article mentions another right-handed college first baseman, Spencer Torkelson, who later went 1st overall in the 2020 draft.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be surprised if spring training stats played much of a role in Nathan getting the closer's job in 2004. We signed him to a multi-year contract with spring training barely underway on March 4, with incentives for games finished and all-star appearances. He had been a fantastic high-leverage setup man for the Giants in 2003 and he was pretty much our only significant bullpen addition that offseason. He was way ahead of any potential competition for the closer's job before spring training even began -- Rincon and Balfour hadn't been used in any kind of high leverage spot yet, Romero was coming off a very shaky 2003 as a lefty specialist, and Crain hadn't pitched in MLB at all (and wouldn't until August 2004). Could Nathan have had a disastrous ~10 innings in spring training and caused the Twins to change course? Certainly, but the problem would have to be bad enough that it would be evident to the Twins in non-statistical ways too. Otherwise, spring training is such a small sample, in such unusual circumstances, that good/bad performances with a normal range generally don't shift a team's preconceived evaluations too much.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The hype train has already started for Andrew Vaughn, the White Sox's presumptive DH: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2021/03/24/mlb-rosters-white-sox-dont-plan-hold-back-prospect-andrew-vaughn/4801933001/ 3rd overall pick in the 2019 draft, hasn't played above A-ball yet -- should be interesting to see how he does! White Sox already talking long-term contract with him too -- and not using his promotion for leverage.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    We don't want Kirilloff to be a platoon player? I doubt it's a straight platoon either.
×
×
  • Create New...