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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Cleveland indeed lowered payroll, but I don't think they did it by "selling off parts", at least not in a negative way -- their 3 big offseason trades are pretty easy to justify as "baseball moves" too: - traded Yan Gomes (58 OPS+) - traded Encarnacion (117 OPS+) and Yandy Diaz (117) for Carlos Santana (149) and Jake Bauers (89) - traded Alonso (55 OPS+) I think they'd like Diaz back with that production, but it's hard to argue with what Santana is doing right now, cheaper and more flexible than Encarnacion. And the other two deals are the kind that some folks here have applauded the Twins for making the past couple years. On the free agency front, yeah, they definitely should have tried harder to bring back Michael Brantley -- that was the clear, questionable money-conserving move. But otherwise, letting Allen and Miller go seem like more solid baseball moves.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, I think so. Baserunning is a component of WAR, and I assume outs on the bases have an impact. That said, it might not have that big of an impact, since WAR is likely looking at it in a context-neutral way. And Buxton has probably accumulated enough baserunning value otherwise to offset this gaffe pretty well.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Or were they just standing around in case there was a replay review?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins still have 8 hitters, all from their opening day lineup, with 250+ PA this season. (And the 9th spot would be catcher, where they have low PAs primarily due to splitting the position rather than injury, although Garver did have a stint on the DL.) By comparison, the Yankees have only 5 guys meeting that 250 PA threshold, and only 4 of them were from their opening day lineup. Plus a couple extended pitcher injuries (Severino, Betances) where the Twins have had virtually none. SpoTrac has the Yankees with 23 players missing 1310 days so far in 2019, worst in MLB. Even if you think Ellsbury and Tulowitzki shouldn't count, they are still way ahead of the Twins who have missed the 4th fewest days at 357: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/cumulative-team/
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I presume they'll exchange a reliever (presumably Littell again) for Smeltzer to start on Sunday. Smeltzer started last night too, so he's lined up perfectly to take the start.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Is offensive potency simply a matter of raw HR totals? How many other teams are on pace to break that record (set just last year)? Relative to league, the 1963-1964 Twins were actually better at hitting HR than the 2019 Twins. And of course there's OPS+ and wRC+ for more general offensive performance, and the Twins are doing very well in those categories... but not the best in history.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    You might not want to nitpick other posts too much while simultaneously making the claim that the 2019 Twins have "the most potent offense in MLB history."
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Aaron Bummer?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That assumes the Mets are willing to sell low. Especially given their circumstances, where they're already invested in competing now and the foreseeable future, I don't think they will.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Re: www.baseballtradevalues.com FWIW, they currently assign Pressly a $27.4 mil median trade value, versus $4.5 mil combined for Alcala and Celestino. Yes, I know that includes Pressly's extension. Looking at relievers currently controlled for 1.5 years: Yates 18 Giles 10.7 Greene 9.6 Colome 6.5 Jared Hughes 2.2 Dyson 0.3 I wouldn't have put Pressly last year as high as Yates, but probably close to the Greene/Giles neighborhood (Pressly's salary was cheaper than both).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a cool site, and it's certainly better to use that as a rough estimator of trade packages than simply packaging all of the Twins injured or under-performing minor leaguers. But that site can't account for context. Just because the White Sox traded Sale for prospect package X doesn't mean another team will trade a pitcher equivalent to Sale for an equivalent prospect package Y. The White Sox were in a position where they valued the prospects more than Sale; the Mets, Reds, and Nationals probably aren't.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Gibson pitched an extra inning just fine yesterday.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Possibly, but: only Cole was a non-rental among this group. I don't think the other trade returns have too much bearing on a potential Vasquez package. Additionally, Vasquez has much more team control remaining (4.5 years) than Cole did (2). He's also performing better -- remember, Cole was coming off 100 and 107 ERA+ seasons at the time. He had tons of talent, but was still seen as a bit of a project to fully unlock it (not unlike Chris Archer?). Even so, Moran was coming off a 133 wRC+ at AAA, only had 37 MLB PA, and was still 50 FV at the time per Fangraphs. Feliz had a career 32.7% K% in MLB. And Musgrove had a 1.44 ERA in 31 innings out of the pen to make the Astros postseason bullpen, suggesting a good floor if his return to starting didn't work out. They weren't great prospects anymore, but I think those 3, as much shine was off of them, could still be considered ahead of Romero (struggling in AAA pen), Gonsalves (injured), and Gordon (cumulative 61 wRC+ at AAA in 578 PA) at the moment. Pittsburgh may also be learning from its mistakes, and may consider itself in a different position now too -- especially with the failure of the Archer trade, they may be moving beyond the point of trying to salvage their Marte/Polanco era. By all means, if Pittsburgh wants a package of these types of players for Vasquez, we should pursue it aggressively. But I wouldn't count on it.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting -- I hadn't heard that one before! Here's an article from 2001 that makes a similar general reference, but not many details: "Before baseball limited the number of on-line votes a fan could cast, someone set up a program a couple years ago that threatened to put David McCarty into the starting lineup." http://www.espn.com/mlb/columns/caple_jim/1190152.html This article, also from 2001, offers more specifics about ballot stuffing in 1999, although without any reference to McCarty: http://static.espn.go.com/mlb/s/2001/0624/1218244.html
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    This is true to an extent, but by the end of July 2018 Pressly had four months of very strong work, fully backed up by peripherals, far more than he'd ever done before. Obviously the Twins bet on it not continuing, but I think it was enough that I would have bet Alcala/Celestino to see if it would continue.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    But he'll be ready tonight! Just has to wear his Tortuga disguise, and no one will ever know...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd guess those would be too high as well -- but it might be close to what the Giants would ask for in negotiations, right now.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, on the day of the trade, Pressly ranked 10th among MLB relievers in xFIP- (min. 40 IP). Also 11th in K%.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Pressly showed more in 2018 for the Twins than just his last 10 games. For his whole season with the Twins, 47 innings, he had the highest Twins reliever K% since Joe Nathan. Solid ERA- and even better FIP-/xFIP-. All with above average leverage deployment too. He wasn't top 10 in baseball but he was plenty valuable to the Twins. If Duffey gets up to 47 innings this year (he's at 22 now), with above average leverage (he's at .68 now), and still has his same rate stats, I will also be upset if the Twins trade him for a couple 40 FV prospects.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly was pretty great for the Twins leading up to the trade, and our pitching coaches have done well (the Taylor Rogers turnaround last year, and Johnson's work this year). I mean, obviously it's a hypothetical with no way to test it for certain, but I think it's safe to assume that Pressly would have continued being pretty great in a Twins uniform.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, May did approach a couple spring trainings as a starter (Duffey may have too?), and even started his TJ rehab last year as a starter in the minors (maybe just to catch up in innings?).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed on Littell and May, but hasn't Duffey been an exclusive reliever for 2.5 years now, almost as long as Rogers?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure how you figured "top-11"? The MLB non-pitcher walk rate is 8.8% this year. So 7.7% would be below average. (Among MLB teams, 7.7% would rank 25th, just ahead of the Royals.) And walk rates are also higher in the minor leagues. 9.5% in the IL this year, for example. 9.1-9.2% in the Southern League this year and last year, etc. And I'm not sure minor league BB% is all that correlated with SLG -- see LaMonte Wade. Reflecting this, and the change in competition, ZiPS projects Arraez to have a 6.2% walk rate the rest of the MLB season, which is indeed up from their preseason projection of 5.5%, but a far cry from his current 16.7%! Of course, Arraez could still be good/useful with a below average walk rate, or a sub-.400 OBP.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Schoop's sore leg didn't land him on the DL so I don't think it was much of a phantom injury for rest.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Players with 5 years service time can refuse any optional assignment, even if they technically have options remaining.
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