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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Wrong link? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/mariners-rejected-bradley-for-furbush-offer-from-red-sox.html Furbush does have a career 10.0 K/9 as a reliever, but has been very LOOGY in usage. Jackie Bradley Jr has been pretty bad though, and is already 25.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Berrios might be in contention for the #1 SP prospect in all of MLB soon, if he keeps pitching like this and a few guys ahead of him graduate, get hurt, etc.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    There is no difference evident in total MLB day/night splits: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2014#stad So I don't think this is anything but random variation and perhaps MiLB effects.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    That doesn't sound right. Are you including Duensing's 2012 innings as a starter or something? According to Fangraphs, for relief-only innings from 2012-2015, Duensing is at a 94 ERA- (note the minus) for this time period, which is above league average of 100 (lower is better). (And that improves to 90 if you remove 2015.) Not sure where that ranks among LHP, Fangraphs doesn't appear to have a filter for that. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=150&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=14,d Still probably not great, as relievers average about a 93 ERA- during this time period, but not terrible either. Fien is at 91, Swarzak at 90 (remember, only relief innings).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    For the "That's The Ticket" articles, the last portion containing the ticket prices and the all-important discount code is only visible in the regular article view, not the forum view. Article link: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/thats-the-ticket-catching-rays-r3655 Forum link: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18096-article-thats-the-ticket-catching-rays/ Missing portion from end: I will be sure to follow the article link in these next time, but I thought I would make you aware in case this was an undesired behavior.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm going to bow out now. We had a whole thread on this before, which I thought was mildly productive for all sides, and I'm a little surprised you're going back to these canards now.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, if they are citing them in complete isolation or in contradiction of past results over a much larger sample. I don't know that anybody is doing that, however.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think we've been over this. Citing a month-plus of a defensive runs estimator as meaningful is indeed not a proper thing to do.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not as much as you might think: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-visual-look-at-defensive-metrics/
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    And the reliever tested with that very important inning on Tuesday, was the same reliever called upon after the game got out of hand on Thursday (6 run deficit). But I am sure glad that Perkins was theoretically available today! (Not to mention closing out that 4 run lead last night.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Spots 1 through 4 seem pretty solid the last 3 weeks, as well as #9. And even before that, it was mainly just Dozier and Hunter alternating between 2 and 4. This doesn't seem unusual for a team with a few anchors and some question marks in the lineup.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario has been in the lineup (either LF or RF) every game except 1 since his debut. Hicks has 3 straight games in the lineup too. So far, so good. Escobar has only sat twice in the last 16 games though too, so something will have to give soon.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    If Arcia was a good defensive 2B, with plus base running value, this thread would not exist. Heck, if he was even an average defensive OF, this thread may not exist. And even then, Dozier didn't get his contract or accolades due to his 2012 performance (which is included in your career stat comparisons). His OPS has been notably higher than Arcia's since May 2013. And he's been healthier.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that -- last year Suzuki slotted into a lot of lineup spots (and did so in his Oakland heyday too). Looks like he is the #5 hitter right now unless Plouffe or Hunter is out of the lineup. Seems pretty standard. Escobar as everyday LF/DH is the stranger move, IMHO.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't worry too much about the AAA CF "spot". Hicks and Rosario were sharing it just fine. Eric Farris and Wilkin Ramirez are both starting in Rochester right now, so yeah, they've got room for two more outfielders. (And Daniel Ortiz in a 4th OF role there, if necessary, wouldn't be a travesty either.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Are the Astros wrong to promote Correa to AAA? Or is it just a case that he's dominating AA so much, and they're not quite ready to promote him to MLB, that they might as well move him to AAA? I could see Buxton being in that position (or perhaps more likely, having a good but not quite otherworldly AA line, and the team wants to see how quickly he adapts to a new level/team before giving him the MLB call). And of course as we are having this discussion, Buxton is 0-for-14 since his leadoff HR Monday...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think if you see the difference as a group, and it's not just the result of a random distribution, that suggests there are factors out of your control that are influencing the split. Just eyeballing a minor league schedule, it looks like day games are almost never the first game of a series. So day games would have reduced travel effects, a huge deal in the minors with bus travel. On a similar note, by the time those games roll around, there would be more familiarity with the ballpark/opposition/umpires, etc. (Day games are also always the first game of doubleheaders, which are more frequent in the minor leagues.) Umpiring might be different in day games vs night games too, especially with lower-quality umps under lower-quality lighting? Also, day games are usually preceded by night games, so perhaps backup/part-time catchers play more often those days. And backup/part-time catchers are probably worse at catching at lower levels, which can affect the pitching (umpiring too). If they are often "getaway days" maybe that has an additional effect on manager decisions (less aggressive bullpen use, etc.). Could still be random noise. Just looking at the Chattanooga May 2015 schedule, their two Sunday games (which are most often day games) were won by scores of 14-13 and 16-3. Results like that could have an outsize effect in small samples! (And indeed day games represent ~20% of Walker's career AB, less than half of even home/road splits.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Hunter rated at -24.7 defensive runs anywhere for 2014 (unless you are including a positional adjustment, which you probably shouldn't -- we're comparing him to average RFers not other positions). UZR had him at -18.3 and DRS similarly at -18. There is nothing surprising about some on this board not recognizing an outlier / regression to the mean. I will say though that plenty of us recognized that Hunter probably wasn't that bad, but that a likely defensive upgrade over Arcia, Willingham, Delmon Young, etc. was setting the bar a little low for our offseason. I actually wouldn't be surprised if no stat-based defensive analysis was honestly considered in advance of the Hunter signing (and there's a few years worth of other evidence backing up that theory). FWIW, Hunter currently sits at -5 runs by DRS, and 0.8 runs by UZR for 2015. He still could hit the -12 runs/season average that he posted in Detroit.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    We could have done that with a win on Tuesday night too.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Average ages, according to B-Ref 2015 Batters: 28.9 1991 Batters: 29.1 2015 Pitchers: 29.2 1991 Pitchers: 28.6 I will second your endorsement of a 15 game winning streak, however. I'd even settle for 14 games.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Is this sarcasm? Nolasco had much better outings in 2013, without the big future guarantees, without the stink of 2014, and returned virtually nothing in trade to the Marlins.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    April 26, similar situation (Gibson leaves tie game on the road after 7, actually gave up a double in the 8th), we used Thompson for an inning, Fien for 2, then we took a two run lead and Perkins got the save in the 11th. Looks like Boyer is in the Fien role now.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That's managing to the save rule, and I have no problem disagreeing with that. Hopefully that's not Molitor's thought process, although he's only deviated from it once so far (8th inning tie against KC, and Perkins allowed the go-ahead run to score). If Perkins loses the game, hey you went down with your best, nothing wrong with that. And if he just extends the game an inning or two, I have no problem then bringing in Pressly or whomever to "close" if we take the lead.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Milone is no stranger to dominating AAA, especially the IL. In 2011, he posted a 9.4 K/9 vs 1.0 BB/9 for a 2.28 FIP there. Does suggest he should be healthy, and could be a decent back of the rotation option again, though.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I like multi-inning relievers too (although Molitor may not have done Casey Fien any favors there). But the logic should not be that different with your relief ace, within reason (and a possible 2 innings, if he's cruising, in a tie game in extra innings on the road is well within reason). Again, not so much of a big deal if you've got an established bullpen with talent up and down the line, but that is not the Twins current pen. We don't have two equivalent setup men to pair with Perkins for 1 inning stints, which is part of the reason Molitor has been riding the hot hand for multiple innings and bringing in Perkins in the 8th at times.
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